Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 251831 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 131 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE ARE TODAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY ARRIVES WEDNESDAY. THE COLD PARADE CONTINUES WITH CLIPPERS THURSDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... QUITE A COMPLICATED FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AT 18Z...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION FORMING ALONG IT. MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR NORTH...WITH AREAS OF EITHER RAIN...OR A RAIN SNOW MIX...WITH SNOW FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. THE SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED ON SOUTHERN IL...WILL DIG SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING AS IT DOES SO. EXPECT BULK OF PRECIPITATION TO START OUT AS RAIN...WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A RAIN SNOW MIX...THEN ALL SNOW THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST...AND UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET DURING THE TRANSITION PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...FEEL CURRENT ADVISORY FOR JUST PERRY COUNTY SEEMS REASONABLE. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW...SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL HOVER AROUND OR ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK...THUS LIMITING THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. SO ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SNOWING...WE MAY HAVE A HARD TIME ACCUMULATING ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW. OUTSIDE OF PERRY COUNTY...WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE CONFIGURED...GENERALLY HAVE AROUND AN INCH ACROSS SURROUNDING SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES...WITH 1 TO 4 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA. PERRY COUNTY APPEARS TO STILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE LOWLAND COUNTY FOR ACCUMS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP EARLIER...AND STAY COLDER THERE LONGER. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... PRECIPITATION FROM THE CLIPPER WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...SOME LOW LEVEL OVER TURNING AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BECOME A POSSIBILITY. MODELS SHOWING THAT MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE FAIRLY LIMITED WITH IN THE WEST...SO BEST CHANCE OF SNOW SHOULD BE IN THE MOUNTAINS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALSO MOVES OVER LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...INCREASINGS MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT MODELS ARE NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE AS THEY WERE LAST NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... CLOSE TO WPC THINKING WITH POSITIVE PNA THIS PERIOD. CLIPPER SYSTEMS REINFORCE THE COLD AIR JUST PRIOR TO THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND THEN AGAIN THU-THU NT AND SAT NT. THE ONE JUST PRIOR TO THE START OF THE PERIOD IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO A SIZABLE AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE E COAST MON-TUE. HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST CLIPPER TUE NT...AND THEN SAILS ACROSS ON WED. WARMING ALOFT WED MAY NOT BE REALIZED AT GROUND UNTIL THU...IN THE SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SECOND CLIPPER. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO PROVIDE A GOOD BUT BRIEF UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT THU NT. WHILE STILL AT A DISTANCE WHERE THE MODELS ARE STILL IN FLUX...THE WEEKEND SYSTEM MAY BE MORE INTERESTING THAN JUST A CLIPPER. LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE CLOSE TO WPC. THE GFS40 WAS EMPLOYED THU MORNING AND SAT MORNING...THE BETTER RADIATIVE COOLING NIGHTS. THE FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE CREATE BUST POTENTIAL IN THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SE OH AND N WV TODAY...WITH PRECIP BREAKING OUT ALONG THIS FEATURE...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 22Z...WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN IL WILL DIG SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY...WITH RAIN GRADUALLY CHANGING TO A RAIN SNOW MIX...THEN ALL SNOW. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS TERMINALS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES INCLUDING KPKB AROUND 06Z...AND A CHANGE OVER IN THE WV LOWLANDS 09-12Z...WITH CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS SUCH AS AT KCRW AFTER 15Z. MOUNTAINOUS LOCATIONS SUCH AS KEKN WILL GENERALLY BE A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW AFTER 23Z SUNDAY. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOCAL LIFR AFTER 06-09Z. SOME GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...GENERALLY AFTER 15Z FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING PRECIP AND DETERIORATING CONDITIONS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M L M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M L L L M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M H L L M H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H L L L M M M M M AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW MONDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR OHZ066. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...SL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.