Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 271743 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1243 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY. DRIER...COLDER AIR SLOWLY BUILDS IN TO CLOSE OUT 2014.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MOST OF WEST VIRGINIA IS BASKING IN THE SUN AT THE MOMENT...BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT AND TURNS INTO A STATIONARY FRONT USHERING WAVES OF MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. LUCKILY...MOST MODEL SIGNALS INDICATE THAT TOTAL PRECIPITATION BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH INCREASED MODEL CONFIDENCE BOOSTED THE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO NOTCHED UP THE WINDS IN SE OH PER HRRR GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... OVERALL...MODELS LOCKED INTO THE SHORT TERM PATTERN PRETTY WELL WHICH EQUATES TO MINIMAL CHANGES ACROSS THE SHORT TERM. BIGGEST CHANGES ARE BUMPING UP THE POPS WITH ADDED CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE STORY IS THE SAME WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING IN...GOING STATIONARY WITH A WAVE FORMING ALONG IT...AND ULTIMATELY HAVING DIFFICULTY EXITING THE AREA WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOWS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS NOTED LAST NIGHT...NO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS KEEPS THIS SYSTEM ON THE WEAKER SIDE WITH QPF TOTALS LESS THAN HALF AN INCH FOR THE MOST PART. STILL HAVE SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT POSSIBLE SNOW TOTALS IN THE HIGHEST RIDGES OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE FRONT EVENTUALLY TO MORE NORMAL DECEMBER VALUES...BUT STILL NOT TAPPING INTO ANY REALLY COLD ARCTIC AIR JUST YET. FEW CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM AS WELL WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGES BEING TO THE SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAKING THEM BELOW FREEZING. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... OVERALL A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD. HAVE POPS TAPERING OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE DEPARTS. BRING BACK IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPERATURE TROUGH AND WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE END OF THE WEEK...SO DO START INCREASING POPS RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. BLENDED NEW WPC GUIDANCE INTO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TEMPS...AND THEN WENT JUST A TOUCH COOLER ON LOWS. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR TRANSITIONING TO MVFR AND ULTIMATELY IFR BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW LOW WILL THE CLOUD DECK GET. WENT WITH IFR OVER MUCH OF AREA IN A STATIONARY FRONT ANCHORED OVER THE AREA TYPE OF PATTERN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH BECOMING MODERATE. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR ONSET AND OFFSET MAY VARY FROM TAFS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26/JW NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...JW

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.