Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 210603 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 203 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure into Tuesday. Strong cold front late Tuesday/Tuesday night. Cooler and drier for the end of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1000 PM Sunday... Updated to include isolated shower mention from PKB north and west. A few showers have popped up recently. They are already falling apart as they drift northward so stayed in isolated range. These appear to have formed along a low level boundary that is likely the outflow from the thunderstorms that moved across the far northern CWA Saturday evening. As of 120 PM Sunday... Weak high pressure keeps the CWA dry and warm today. A minor impulse at 500 mb passes to our north overnight though trended towards SREF and GFS ensembles keeping the forecast dry. There should be fog again in the river valleys overnight though the impulse and a full day of sun today may lessen the density and extent overnight. Despite this, still kept a general mention of fog in the river valleys. Monday high pressure holds on albeit weakly, but should be enough to keep us dry again with minimal cloud cover except in the mountains where daytime heating may be enough to spark a few isolated showers. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Sunday... 5h trough digs southeast into the Great Lakes with an accompanying front at the surface. This feature will drive a colder airmass of continental Canadian air into the eastern US by Wednesday night. Have front pegged to be along the Ohio River along the WV-OH border at around 06Z Wednesday and this feature will drive shower and isolated thunderstorm activity across the forecast area with decent wetting rains. Made some adjustments to the model blend pops by just a few hours but generally accepting guidance. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 PM Sunday... Cool period in the long term as Canadian airmass in control of our sensible weather. Surface high dominates the eastern seaboard. Used guidance throughout the period. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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06Z Monday thru 06Z Tuesday... As of 135 AM Monday... With an upper impulse and great cirrus coverage to combine with more tropical like dewpoints, will cut back just a bit on timing and intensity with river valley LIFR fog coverage early this morning, but most sites will still see at least some IFR fog between 09Z and 12Z. Thru 00Z Tuesday... Fog will dissipate quickly after sunrise. then VFR. Generally thin cirrus clouds this morning followed by SCT-BKN clouds 4500-6000 feet AGL this afternoon. An isolated shower this afternoon is possible across east facing slopes of the northern mountains due to elevated heat source and pooling of low level moisture there, and across parts of southeast OH with an upper disturbance. Light and variable wind early becoming southwest 3 to 7 KTS this afternoon. After 00Z... VFR with mainly thin cirrus with any river valley fog holding off til after 06Z and not as much as this early morning. Winds light and variable. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, except low to medium with fog. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of fog may vary based mainly on clouds. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 08/21/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M L L L L M H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M L L M H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L M H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M L L M H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H M AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... Dense river valley fog possible each morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV/JW NEAR TERM...JW/MZ SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...JMV

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