Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 191827 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 127 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Cold front midweek brings showers and storms. Front stalls through the end of the week, with significant rainfall possible.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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5h ridge strengthens across the eastern seaboard over the next 24 hours, leading to general height rises and gradual drying of the atmospheric column. At the surface, a good fetch of south to southwesterly flow continues with warm air advection. This leads to well above normal temperatures from this afternoon into Tuesday. For temps, used a blend of models hedging toward the slightly cooler MET MOS guidance, although not entirely. Tuesday should provide an early preview of late spring, early summer in the heart of February. Along the Ohio River... Flood warnings continue along the Ohio River in our HSA below Parkersburg. Parkersburg should be coming out of flood shortly. As of 1 PM, the crest is just passing Huntington, and will pass Ashland later this afternoon or evening.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 120 AM Monday... Bulk of precipitation to start the period to our north, as upper heights build across the eastern U.S. Good southerly flow and building heights across the region will result in temperatures well above normal on Tuesday, with some lowland locations topping out in the lower 80s. Upper ridge breaks down by Wednesday, as a cold front approaches the area. Showers and thunderstorms look likely on Wednesday, with additional rain expected on Thursday, as frontal boundary stalls out across the region, and a wave moves along the front, enhancing precipitation. Heaviest rain during this period looks to be across southeast Ohio, with a good inch or so of rain expected. This could lead to rises on area creeks and streams once again, particularly across southeast Ohio. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 125 AM Monday... A series of low pressure systems, with heavy rainfall potential are expected Friday through the weekend. Models are still continuing to hit the heaviest precipitation axis across the Ohio River region, and this could lead to additional flooding issues both on area creeks and streams, and main stem rivers, including the Ohio. Have elected to highlight flooding potential into the HWO for the period. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 1222 PM Monday... Warm front has lifted north of the area leaving us in south to southwest flow and mostly VFR. Will continue to see some drying in the wake of front, with VFR expected for the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will be out of the S to SW with fair amount of gradient flow with downsloping off the eastern mountains. This should, for the most part, negate any chances for morning fog Tuesday morning, despite the wet soils and moist boundary layer. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR possible in stray shower or two. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR possible in showers late Wednesday or Wednesday night into Thursday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL NEAR TERM...KMC/MZ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...KMC

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