Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 210634 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 234 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
DRY ATMOSPHERE HOLDS ON TODAY. COLD FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE CROSSES TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A CANOPY OF CIRRUS WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM W TO E AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. STILL...BELIEVE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL COMMON OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ENHANCED FIRE DANGER DAY TODAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS OFF TO W CURRENTLY...WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE MUCH INROADS INTO THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL THIS EVENING. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THINKING FOR TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHRA AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER FROM DECAYING CONVECTION THAT INITIALLY DEVELOPS ACROSS W KY...BUT RIDES IN ON LOW LEVEL THETA E RIDGE OVERNIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO AFFECT MAINLY S HALF OF CWA...GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL WATCH FOR ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA AND PERHAPS THUNDER TO ROLL IN AFTER 09Z FROM W TO E...ASSOCIATED WITH PREFRONTAL ACTION WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CONTINUE TO ROLL HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ALL MODELS SAVE FOR THE CANADIAN ARE FASTER WITH A COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING TUE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. LEAD SRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM CROSSES OVERNIGHT MON NT...GRADUALLY MOISTENING UP WHAT IS INITIALLY A DRY...RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED LAYER...LEADING TO AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT MON NT. AIR MASS JUST TO THE W OF THE CWA BECOMES SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE IN THE HEATING OF TE DAY...GIVING RISE TO THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM...WHICH COULD THEN SURVIVE THEIR EWD TREK INTO THE CWA TUE NT. GENERALLY HAVE LIKELY POPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT APPROACHES TUE MORNING BEFORE CROSSING MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER DURING THAT TIME ALTHOUGH A BRIEF UP TICK IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING IN THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. PW VALUES DO INCREASE TO 1.25 INCHES BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE. CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 600 J KG-1 OFF NAM12 WITH ITS HIGH DEW POINTS...GFS PEAK CAPE IS MUCH LESS. WITH H8 WINDS TO 40 KTS...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HARD DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT QUICKLY TUE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING FROM THE W. LOW CLOUD EPISODE WILL BE BRIEF BEHIND THIS POLAR / PACIFIC FRONT...WITH MORNING CU LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND SRN WV COAL FIELDS. OTHERWISE WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUN...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE LOOKED GOOD...BLENDED IN A LITTLE OF THE BIAS CORRECTED MET ON LOWS...HIGHER THAN THE MAV NUMBERS...AND A LITTLE OF THE STRAIGHT MET FOR HIGHS TUE...AND A LITTLE OF THE STRAIGHT MEX FOR HIGHS WED. HIGHS TUE ARE JUST AS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE AS EARLIER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY W. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND MID WEEK COLD FRONT BRINGS DRIER AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING NEW COLD FRONT. MODELS...ECMWF/GFS HAVE MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS...SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH PCPN CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT EXITS NORTHEAST. THIS TIMING IS NOT DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY. MODELS DO SHOW HIGH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT INCREASE IN DEWPOINT AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS NOTICED ONLY MINOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. KEPT POPS TO 51 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR QPF ON GRIDS. POPS COULD BE INCREASE TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL WITH FRIDAYS COLD FRONT AS TIME APPROACHES. SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND PROVIDING FRESH AIR FROM THE NORTH. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE A CANOPY OF CIRRUS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM W TO E TODAY. LIGHT SE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN MORE W AS THE DAY PROGRESSES BUT REMAINING GENERALLY LIGHT. BASES WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. PREFRONTAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS KY AND INTO S WV BY END OF TAF PERIOD WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VSBY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 04/21/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...30

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.