Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KRLX 301613
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1213 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016
A large upper level low will bring unsettled wet weather through
tonight. Dry slot moves over this weekend, lowering chances for
showers. High pressure early next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1200 PM Friday...
Adjusted PoPs and Wx per latest radar images. There are two bands
of PCPN, one affecting the northeast portions of WV, the otherone
across the OH river into southeast OH. Temperatures look good.
Increased QPF especially with the rain band to the northeast. No
other changes necessary.
As of 650 AM Friday...
Upper low spinning to our west creating a favorable environment for
showers and thunderstorms.
Radar shows steady rainfall has been training over the far
northeastern counties. Most gages clocking in at around 0.30"/hr
though over the period up to 4 or more inches of rain have fallen,
so have raised areal flood warnings for this. Will continue to
monitor the area for flash flooding potential, but at the current
time the flash flood threat is under control.
Great model consensus on another round of convection developing this
morning as atmosphere destabilizes. Additional rainfall amounts of
an inch or more are possible with this round of convection. Rain
activity on the decrease this afternoon/evening as upper low
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM Friday...
Will still be dealing with pesky upper low through much of the short
term period. Models in decent agreement with it drifting back north
and then northeast as we head into next week. Overall, it looks like
the CWA should be in the dry slot for much of the period with just
some low POPs along and west of the Ohio River, and in the WV
mountainous counties both Saturday and Sunday afternoon. Eventually
may need to bump POPs up some on Sunday as a lobe of vorticity
rotates around the upper low crossing CWA during the afternoon.
Granted, not a hole lot of solar heating to provide extra
instability with plenty of clouds in place. Temperatures stay
fairly close to normal for early October. Used a blend of
US consensus and the ECMWF MOS for temperatures.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1205 PM Thursday...
Period will begin with pesky upper low moving away from the
region. Upper level ridge will build in as an upper level trof
approaches from the west. Models differ on the track of Tropical
Storm Matthew. GFS has the system moving along the North Carolina
coast while the ECMWF has it well to the south. Current thinking
is to follow WPC timing which is close to that of the GFS.
End result should be dry weather Sunday night through Tuesday
before the flow around Matthew begins to push some moisture
westward into the mountains. This increasing moisture could
result in some afternoon/evening showers and storms in the
northern mountains Wednesday and Thursday.
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 AM Friday...
Aviation continues to be tricky. Areas of +TSRA bringing IFR to
portions of the forecast area. Showers will continue today
bringing more potential for IFR. Generally kept tafs MVFR for the
day with IFR mixed in. Pretty good bet for fog tonight.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage and timing of showers and storms
today and resultant MVFR/IFR restrictions may vary from forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY M L L M M H H L M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L M H M M M H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M L H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H L H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
Areas of IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms through
Saturday, and in dense fog Sunday and Monday mornings.