Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 171122 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 622 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure system approaches today/tonight. High pressure Sunday. Warm front Monday, and then a cold front midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 620 AM Satuday... No updates as current forecast on track. As of 240 AM Saturday... Surface wave moves across southern coalfields today and tonight. Highest QPF associated with this feature generally confined south and west of KCRW-KBKW line. Soil conditions remain quite saturated, and flood watch warranted for southwest Virginia counties. At surface and aloft we will see a decent wedge of warm air work its way up through central West Virginia, with some cold air damming occurring across eastern mountains. Profiles suggest enough cold air in place up through mid levels, in wake of recent frontal passage will be enough for general wintry mix with generally all snow across higher terrain, with warm air wedge remaining west of the mountains. Will likely see a wide range of snow amounts, with some areas even seeing brief period of freezing rain and sleet, and liquid precipitation mixed in at times. Thus, snow accumulation confidence quite low, and only brought in higher amounts, ie greater then 4 inches over the highest terrain. Used consensus of models for temperature forecast and blended these back in to inherited forecast, resulting in little change to current forecasted trends. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 310 AM Saturday... High pressure will be moving in on Sunday, with any lingering precip in the northern mountains tapering off by mid morning. As the high drifts to the east Sunday night, we will start to see warm air advection kick in and have gone with a non-diurnal trend during the pre-dawn hours. A warm front lifts through early Monday, with an area of light rain overspreading the area. Temperatures will be warm enough for all rain. The warm front will be north of the forecast area by Monday night with any precip also to the north. Tuesday will be a down right warm day as we are firmly in the warm sector, and should get some decent sunshine. Bumped up highs a degree or two over the previous forecast, but still coming in below some guidance. ECMWF MOS for instance would give us another 2-3 degrees over current forcast. Already have the forecast into record high range for climate sites -- and could be flirting with record highs for the month of February as a whole. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 310 AM Saturday... A cold front is approaching Tuesday night, with POPs gradually increasing across SE Ohio through the pre-dawn. Some timing differences on the frontal passage between GFS and ECMWF, but overall looks like it will cross on Wednesday with best POPs trailing just behind the front. Thought about introducing thunder, but instability is pretty meager. However, would not be surprised if some thunder gets added in eventually. GFS does show an area of 100-200 J/kg MUCAPE crossing. The front gets hung up by a wave moving along it, so have POPs lingering -- especially across the south -- Thursday and Thursday night. While details differ some in the models, it does look like the boundary will eventually drift back north as a warm front Friday, with POPs trending back up. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 540 AM Saturday... After early morning stratcu burns off, mid level clouds and moisture will be on the increase from the south by early this morning with a mixed bag of precipitation types overspreading the area. Up through the southern coalfields from KHTS-KCRW to KCKB mostly rain will occur at the surface. Over the eastern mountains, cold air damming is expected and SN, IP along with some FZRA will prevail. Conditions will become MVFR to IFR across a wide area this afternoon and evening as an area of low pressures passes across southern West Virginia. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset and deteriorating conditions in wintry precipitation may vary today, EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 02/17/18 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M L L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H L M L L PKB CONSISTENCY L M L H H H H H M L L L CKB CONSISTENCY L L H H H L H H H L L L AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... IFR possible in showers late Wednesday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 4 AM EST Sunday for WVZ522>524-526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...Flood Watch from 10 AM EST this morning through this evening for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/MZ NEAR TERM...KMC SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...KMC

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