Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 191754 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 154 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Stalled boundary across Central Ohio tonight. Heads east as a cold front Thursday, exiting mountains Thursday night. Moisture starved cold front late weekend. High pressure early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 145 PM Wednesday... Frontal boundary has started drifting back north again. Radar shows a few echos along and just south of this boundary so went with isolated to scattered showers this afternoon...mainly in SE Ohio and north central West Virginia zones. Did keep an isolated thunder mention as well...but not real confident on this occurring. A surface wave in the lower Ohio River Valley will slide along this boundary through southern Ohio tonight. With this, lingered some showers in SE Ohio, but have everyone else dry. As the surface wave continues through eastern Ohio an into Pennsylvania, a stronger cold front will push through the forecast area from west to east. Ramp up POPs pretty quickly during the day on Thursday, with 100 POPs along and behind the front. For timing, have the front making it into NW CWA during the late morning, and crossing the Ohio River mid afternoon. With a decent amount of clouds around...CAPE should generally be held below 1000J/kg. But decent bulk shear -- 40-50kts, combined with the lift from the cold front and falling heights could lead to some storm organization with gusty outflow winds. Best chance of this will be Ohio River Valley counties. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 AM Wednesday... Models showing a low pressure system moving across the area Thursday into Friday. With good dynamics, decent instability and plenty of moisture, expect some thunderstorms and decent rainfall amounts. With good cold air advection behind the system and some lingering low level moisture, expect some lingering precipitation. How long this precipitation lingers is up for debate among the models. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM Wednesday... Depending on the model, a disturbance may move through sometime in the Saturday night, Sunday, or Sunday night time frame. Due to the uncertainty, will keep low pops through this period. High pressure will then provide dry weather for the beginning of the next work week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 145 PM Wednesday... Plenty of clouds in place today -- with some MVFR in SE Ohio but do not have that making it across the river. Cannot rule out an isolated to scattered shower in the Ohio River valley. Nearly stationary front across Central Ohio tonight with CWA in the warm sector with some southerly flow lingering. Also some clouds lingering so did not include fog in any TAFs. Was on the fence for EKN, but with no fog last night opted to keep with persistence. Cold front approaches Thursday, with chance of showers and storms increasing from west to east...however should hold off at TAF sites until after current TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Sheltered valley locations could develop fog tonight if flow fully decouples and clouds break up. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M L M H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M M AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into Thursday night...with low ceilings and some showers lingering into Friday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...MZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.