Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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301 FXUS61 KRLX 301613 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1213 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A large upper level low will bring unsettled wet weather through tonight. Dry slot moves over this weekend, lowering chances for showers. High pressure early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1200 PM Friday... Adjusted PoPs and Wx per latest radar images. There are two bands of PCPN, one affecting the northeast portions of WV, the otherone across the OH river into southeast OH. Temperatures look good. Increased QPF especially with the rain band to the northeast. No other changes necessary. As of 650 AM Friday... Upper low spinning to our west creating a favorable environment for showers and thunderstorms. Radar shows steady rainfall has been training over the far northeastern counties. Most gages clocking in at around 0.30"/hr though over the period up to 4 or more inches of rain have fallen, so have raised areal flood warnings for this. Will continue to monitor the area for flash flooding potential, but at the current time the flash flood threat is under control. Great model consensus on another round of convection developing this morning as atmosphere destabilizes. Additional rainfall amounts of an inch or more are possible with this round of convection. Rain activity on the decrease this afternoon/evening as upper low oscillates northward. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 AM Friday... Will still be dealing with pesky upper low through much of the short term period. Models in decent agreement with it drifting back north and then northeast as we head into next week. Overall, it looks like the CWA should be in the dry slot for much of the period with just some low POPs along and west of the Ohio River, and in the WV mountainous counties both Saturday and Sunday afternoon. Eventually may need to bump POPs up some on Sunday as a lobe of vorticity rotates around the upper low crossing CWA during the afternoon. Granted, not a hole lot of solar heating to provide extra instability with plenty of clouds in place. Temperatures stay fairly close to normal for early October. Used a blend of US consensus and the ECMWF MOS for temperatures. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1205 PM Thursday... Period will begin with pesky upper low moving away from the region. Upper level ridge will build in as an upper level trof approaches from the west. Models differ on the track of Tropical Storm Matthew. GFS has the system moving along the North Carolina coast while the ECMWF has it well to the south. Current thinking is to follow WPC timing which is close to that of the GFS. End result should be dry weather Sunday night through Tuesday before the flow around Matthew begins to push some moisture westward into the mountains. This increasing moisture could result in some afternoon/evening showers and storms in the northern mountains Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 230 AM Friday... Aviation continues to be tricky. Areas of +TSRA bringing IFR to portions of the forecast area. Showers will continue today bringing more potential for IFR. Generally kept tafs MVFR for the day with IFR mixed in. Pretty good bet for fog tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage and timing of showers and storms today and resultant MVFR/IFR restrictions may vary from forecast. Amendments likely. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY M L L M M H H L M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L M H M M M H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H M H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M L H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H L H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... Areas of IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms through Saturday, and in dense fog Sunday and Monday mornings. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ NEAR TERM...ARJ/JW SHORT TERM...JSH/MZ LONG TERM...JSH/30 AVIATION...JW

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