Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 170200 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1000 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak cold front brings showers mainly across the northern portions of the area overnight. Dry and cool to end the weekend. Much colder air moves in Monday with stronger front.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 1000 PM Saturday... Other than lower dew points in the mountains, the forecast is on track. As of 820 PM Saturday... Allowed for a sprinkle out of the stout altocumulus deck out ahead of the approaching cold front tonight. Otherwise, the forecast is on track. As of 205 PM Saturday... A pleasant afternoon is underway across the Central Appalachians courtesy of high pressure parked to our south. Satellite trends depict lingering stratocu continuing to scatter out and erode along the I-77 and I-79 corridors in the midst of breezy surface flow. The overnight period features a cold front progged to sweep through and promote increasing clouds and a slight chance for rain showers. Models remain on board with the southern end of the boundary staying mostly dry as it enters the central lowlands, while the bulk of moisture stays north of the Mason Dixon line. Retained a slight chance for rain early Sunday morning for the northern extent of the CWA accompanying FROPA, wrapping up along the mountains by daybreak Sunday morning. Dry weather, albeit breezier and chillier, returns in the wake of the front on Sunday. Afternoon highs for Sunday will fall a few degrees short of Saturday`s readings, only reaching the mid 50s at best across the lowlands and the 40s along the mountains.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 206 PM Saturday... By Monday, an upper trough will dig south across the area, bringing in colder air and light precipitation to the region. Periods of light snow can be expected even across the lowlands. Accumulations should generally be limited to the higher terrain however due to the warm ground, and lowlands may even switch over to a period of rain or a rain/snow mix during the afternoon hours. Precipitation should generally taper off to flurries late Monday night into Tuesday. In addition to the snow, CAA and increased pressure gradient will result in rather gusty winds, and this combined with the cooler temperatures will be a bit of a shock to the system after the warm weather. Wind chills will be in the teens to 20s at times Monday into Tuesday, and we may get close to advisory criteria across the higher terrain of the northern mountains for wind. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1205 PM Saturday... Another fast moving clipper type system looks to affect the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, with additional light snow, mainly across the northern mountains. Temperatures moderate towards the end of the period as heights build and southerly flow increases out ahead of a southern stream system. Models vary greatly on what will happen with this system, whether it will stay well to our south along the SE coast, or will eventually move north along eastern seaboard, providing the region with a good soaking rain for late in the week or next weekend. Maintained a blend of models, which trends towards the wetter solution at this time. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 820 PM Saturday... A cold front crossing overnight is not likely to bring much precipitation, although light rain showers or sprinkles are possible across the north overnight, and in the northern mountains into Sunday morning. Visibility restrictions are not likely. Altocumulus ahead of the front will be followed by stratocumulus behind it, which is forecast to lower to MVFR at CKB and EKN for a time early Sunday morning. This stratocu will then give way to scattered higher cloud for Sunday afternoon everywhere, with the possible exception of EKN. All sites should have a VFR Sunday afternoon. Southwest surface flow ahead of the cold front will be gusty at times tonight, before switching to west with a lull in gusts early Sunday morning. Gusts will range from 15 to 20 kts tonight, and then 20 to 25 kts on Sunday, a bit higher at BKW. Wind shift timing with the frontal passage ranges from 07-09Z along the Ohio River to 09-11Z in and near the mountains. Moderate southwest flow aloft ahead of the front will become light to moderate west behind it early Sunday morning, and then light west for the rest of the day Sunday. Brief low level wind shear is possible when and where low level flow decouples overnight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Gusty winds will fluctuate. This will modulate the presence of low level wind shear overnight. Timing and location of MVFR stratocumulus late overnight into Sunday morning may vary. A shower may bring a brief visibility restriction across the north overnight into Sunday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 03/17/24 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H AFTER 00Z MONDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL/MEK NEAR TERM...TRM/MEK SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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