Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 241734 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 134 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure dominates through early next week with dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Cold front Wednesday night/Thursday. Secondary cold front early weekend time frame. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1100 AM Sunday... No changes necessary. As of 630 AM Sunday... Per current trend, updated for less fog and quicker dissipation this morning. As of 205 AM Sunday... And the beat goes on with high pressure at the surface and aloft in firm control. With drier air in place, dense river valley fog not as widespread this morning. After morning fog, wall to wall sunshine is expected. With another day of sunshine, drier air and good mixing, have increased high temperatures a degree or two this afternoon. Highs will likely reach 90 degrees in more areas this afternoon than yesterday. Under clear skies and with very light winds at best Sunday tonight, some more river valley fog can be expected. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 240 AM Sunday... No changes to the synoptic setup through the middle of next week. Upper ridging over the middle Ohio Valley into the northeast drives the mainly clear conditions with above normal temperatures. Maria will continue its slow trek northward off the Outer Banks of North Carolina, potentially slinging high level clouds into the mountains. No significant POPs expected in the short term. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 240 AM Sunday... Cold front pushes into the area in response to an upper level trough digging into the northern Great Lakes. Runs of the long term models returns lower POPs upon passage, with a mainly dry frontal passage scenario at this point in the forecast. A secondary closed low aloft digs southeastward into the lakes and reinforces the cooler airmass for the weekend with another cold front and resultant 850mb temperatures down in the lower single digits. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 PM Sunday... High pressure provides widespread VFR mostly clear skies and near calm wind through the period. The exception will be along some river valleys that may experience IFR patchy fog. The density of fog will depend on clear skies overnight. Any IFR river valley fog dissipates 12-13Z Monday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR/LIFR in valley fog each morning through Wednesday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...ARJ/JMV SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...ARJ

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