Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 021852 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 252 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE EXITS LATER TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AND THEN CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK NORTH MID TO LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ENOUGH TONIGHT TO ALLOW SOME BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND KEEP FOG OUT OF MOST OF THE RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE WAS A LACK OF FOG THIS MORNING UNDER MORE IDEAL CONDITIONS. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES MILDER TONIGHT. MODELS TARGET A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE FRONT...THE GFS BEING FASTER WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER BY THE END OF THE DAY. WILL GO WITH THE SLOWER NAM AND BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE FRONT GETTING INTO OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES BY THE END OF THE DAY. MAIN REASON...IN ADDITION TO DIFFICULTY PUSHING SURFACE FRONTS IN MID SUMMER...IS THAT LEAD SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DRIVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LEAVING THE FRONT TO WAIT FOR A SECOND SHORT WAVE LATER MONDAY. WITH THE SLIM POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION FROM THE FRONT UP NORTH TONIGHT SINKING SOUTH...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST ZONES EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE...DRY TONIGHT. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TOWARD THE FRONT...AND AN ORGANIZED BAND OF DIURNALLY AIDED CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT GETTING INTO OUR NORTHWEST ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL RAMP POPS UP TO LIKELY SOUTHEAST OHIO MONDAY AFTERNOON...REMAINDER OF AREA REMAINS DRY. IT WILL BE MORE HUMID...WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TODAY...WITH MODELS HOLDING ON THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES OF WEST VIRGINIA...AND THEN LIFTING BACK NORTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE WEST. WITH THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE INCREASE...FELT COMFORTABLE WITH HIGH CHANCE AND LOW END LIKELY POPS BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... EXTENDED CONTINUES TO PLAY ON THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF TO THE WEST AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WARRANTING HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ON THE FRONT END OF THE LONG TERM. THIS LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST BY 18Z FRIDAY AND WILL TAKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW AND COLD FRONT DRYING IT OUT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR/LOCALLY IFR FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE MORE PROTECTED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS....SUCH AS EKN. AFTER 12Z...A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A FEW DYING MORNING SHOWERS POSSIBLE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN CONVECTION REDEVELOPS FAR NORTHWEST ZONES AROUND 18Z AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. IN GENERAL...GOING WITH INCREASING VFR CLOUDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z MONDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JMV

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