Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 291603 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1203 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND CONVECTION INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT IN OUR VICINITY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONT WEAKENING IN OUR VICINITY MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOMMODATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW NO REAL KICKER TO PROVIDE FORCING OR BOUNDARIES TO SERVE AS FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. HIGH DEWPOINTS...AND SOME CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND CONVECTION ANYWHERE. THEREFORE...CODED CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND MINOR FLOODING OF STREETS...CREEKS...LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ALONG THEIR PATH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... HARD TO GRASP ONTO ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND RUN WITH IT. THE 500 MB EAST COAST RIDGE IS REALLY NOT BREAKING DOWN TODAY. THE ONE 500 MB VORT MAX WAS LIFTING DUE NORTH WITH THE SHOWERS IN WESTERN OHIO AT 08Z. INITIALLY THOUGHT THE MID DECK CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WOULD BE EXTENSIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AT DAWN WITH MAYBE A LIGHT SHOWER SOMEWHERE. HOWEVER...BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z...EVEN THOSE CLOUDS SEEM TO BE EVAPORATING. THOUGHT IT WOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FURTHER EAST WITH PATCHES OF FOG UNTIL DAWN. WITH NO GOOD BOUNDARIES ETC...THE ONLY PLACE WE HAVE POPS REACHING LIKELY CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE POCAHONTAS COUNTY...DUE TO THE LIGHT UPSLOPE SSE FLOW. OTHERWISE HAVE MOSTLY AROUND 40 PERCENT. THE WEAK STEERING FLOW VEERS FROM S DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME TO SSW AFTER 18Z TODAY...SO ANY CELLS FORMING SHOULD MOVE NNE. HELD ONTO 30 POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN OUR OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES...WITH 20 POP FURTHER EAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND A COLD FRONT FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THAT FRONT APPROACHES...WE ARE STUCK IN A CONTINUED HUMID AIRMASS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND HARD TO TIME UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES PASSING BY. WITH THIS PATTERN HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL LEAD TO DOWNPOURS FROM ANY STRONGER CELLS. FOR THE COLD FRONT...WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NAM/SREF WHICH IS ALSO DECENT COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF. THIS HAS THE COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING...TRYING TO SAG ACROSS CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WITH THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON JUST HOW STRONG STORMS ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE. THERE COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING AND REDUCE STRONG STORM POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WILL ADD MENTION OF LOCALIZED FLOOD CONCERNS TO HWO. DESPITE RATHER DRY SOIL CONDITIONS IN PLACE...THINK MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THESE DOWNPOURS COULD START TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON LOCAL STREAMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE STILL OFF TO OUR SE...DO NOT ENVISION A CLEAN SWEEP WITH THE FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OR SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY AND A DAMPENING S/W TROF. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA IN THE FCST. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK IN TEMPS AND A DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HARD TO GRASP ONTO ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND RUN WITH IT. THE WEAK STEERING FLOW VEERS FROM S TO SSW AFTER 18Z TODAY. VALLEY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AROUND 12Z. HAVE MID DECK AT 8 TO 12 THSD FT BKN SPREADING N 12Z TO 15Z. POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT SHOWER IN SOUTHEAST OHIO. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SSE INTO THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SHOULD CAUSE ONE RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN CONVECTION...WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY COULD CAUSE ANY RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES. BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A STORM EVEN FROM CRW TO CKB CORRIDOR. CU FORMS AT 2 TO 4 THSD FT AGL 14Z TO 16Z...THEN MOSTLY 3 TO 4 THSD FT CEILINGS AFTER 16Z. AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 4 THSD FT AGL WITH LAYERS ABOVE. VALLEY FOG COVERAGE 06Z TO 12Z SATURDAY DEPENDS ON LINGERING CLOUDS AND IF SPOTS GET WET FROM A SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL INCLUDE SOME IFR IN ELKINS FOR NOW...AT THIS DISTANCE IN TIME. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY WOULD DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IFR LINGERING MONDAY IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NEAR FRONT. && WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...ARJ/MZ LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...KTB

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