Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 282326 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 726 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS OUT...A COLD FRONT CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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720 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... NORTHERN ZONES IN A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT DAY FROM THE SOUTHERN 3/4 OF THE CWA AS THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLING LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS AND LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN CKB COMPARED TO CRW-HTS ARE 12-15 DEGREES OFF THE PACE CURRENTLY AND JUST CRACKED THE 60F MARK. SLOWLY BUT SURELY...SHOULD SEE THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. FOR NOW...ONE WOULD NOT KNOW IT IS JUST A FEW DAYS FROM JULY IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. AN UNOFFICIAL TEMPERATURE LABELED AS CASS NEAR 4800FT HAS IT AT 48F. EXPECTING RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT. CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AS THE NEXT TROUGH AXIS ALOFT DROPS IN THROUGH THE BROAD SCALE FLOW. WILL RESIST REFERRING THIS TO ANY SORT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WOULD ORIGINATE IN THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IN A RECOVERY FROM THIS ATYPICAL DRY SUMMER AIRMASS WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ISSUED BY SPC FOR THE TRI STATE AREA GIVEN THE SHARP GRADIENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOWS COUPLED WITH THE RAPID INCREASE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... WITH THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT EARLY...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL...WITH OUR AREA BEING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. THE EFFECT WILL BE TO DRIVE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN MEANDER IT BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT AND MOISTURE INCREASING ON SOUTHERLY FLOW...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY...THOUGH THERE WILL BE HARD TO TIME BREAKS IN SHOWERS BETWEEN DISTURBANCES. ALTHOUGH THE AIR WILL NOT BE QUITE AS JUICY AS WITH THE RECENT SYSTEM...THE PERSISTENCE OF THE SHOWERS MAY GIVE RISE TO WATER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER MILD...BUT MORE HUMID. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN. GIVEN THE CONTINUATION OF A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS AND FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WILL GENERALLY KEEP THIS PERIOD UNSETTLED. HARD TO TIME THESE SYSTEMS...SO WILL AGAIN BROAD BRUSH AND KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR EACH DAY. WATER CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS CLOUDS CLEAR TONIGHT EXPECT RIVER VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP. EXPECT THE MOST DENSE FOG AT CKB AND EKN WHERE LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. ALSO HAVE IFR AT PKB AND CRW FOR A TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES. HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING IN THE TRI-STATE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED. BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS DURING AFTERNOONS INTO MIDWEEK.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...MZ/26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...MZ

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