Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KRLX 091754
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1254 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016
Much colder weather through Saturday. A low pressure system
crosses Sunday night and Monday. A cold front crosses toward
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 AM Friday...
Forecast on track. No changes necessary.
As of 600 AM Friday...
Increased POPs some across the coal fields, with a decent area of
snow sinking through web cams are showing a coating of snow from
Beckley to Logan. With this increase in POPs was able to add a
couple tenths of an inch of snow to this area through sunrise.
As of 400 AM Friday...
Cold weather has settled into the middle Ohio River Valley and
Central Appalachians. As an upper level trough passes today,
expecting scattered flurries or snow showers across the lowlands
with no accumulation. Snow will be a bit heavier across the
northern mountainous counties of WV, where 1-3 inches is expected.
Heights begin to rise again across the west this afternoon, which
should start to break up the clouds. Surface high pressure begins
nosing in late tonight, shutting down any lingering mountain snow
A relatively stiff breeze tonight into Friday will create wind
chill values in the 10s and 20s across the lowlands, with the
highest ridges of the mountains dipping a few degrees below zero
for the wind chill.
Used a blend of ECMWF MOS and previous forecast for temperatures.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM Friday...
Continued cold under high pressure through Sunday.
A system approaches Sunday increasing temps and precipitation
chances. Cold air may linger especially over SE Ohio before temps
warm above freezing. So may see some light fzra there Sunday
evening and into early Monday. Strong 850mb flow should scour out
any remaining cold air changing precip to all rain by Monday
morning. Models in fairly good agreement with this system though
minor differences in timing could drastically change forecast.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 250 PM Thursday...
The extended was primarily populated with the Superblend given the
volatility amongst the global models and ensembles. Overall, a
reload of arctic air for the latter half of the work week.
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 100 PM Friday...
Radar and satellite images show low level moisture from the
Great Lakes region moving southeast into our area. Models suggest
light snow showers will continue through 22Z lowlands, through 03Z
higher elevations. Therefore, expect VFR conditions becoming
MVFR/IFR along any snow shower. Abundant low level moisture could
keep flurries going through Saturday morning mainly northeast
mountains. Sfc high pressure builds over the OH valley Saturday
bringing colder and clear conditions.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and height of MVFR stratocumulus may
vary through tonight.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H M L
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H L
BKW CONSISTENCY M M H M M M M M M M M L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M L L H L
PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H L
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M L L L L
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in rain developing Sunday into Sunday night.
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