Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 250239 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 939 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER AWAY TONIGHT. NEXT CLIPPER APPROACHES SUNDAY AND MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE COLD PARADE CONTINUES WITH CLIPPERS THURSDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT. OUT OF THESE CLOUDS...VERY LIGHT PCPN WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT SNOW. WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 32 DEGREES...PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA. UPDATED WEATHER GRIDS TO ADD FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL LEAD TO A TRACE OF ICE IF ANY. THIS ACTIVITY COULD LAST THROUGH 9 AM SUNDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING SNOW TO THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SE OHIO AND THE CNTRL WV MOUNTAINS WHERE A COUPLE OF INCHES COULD FALL. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOMETHING SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY...AN INCH OR LESS MOST PLACES. COOLED TEMPS A TAD AND BROUGHT THE SNOW IN A LITTLE EARLIER BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS...REGARDLESS MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN THE SOUTH SHOULD FALL AS RAIN BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW ON MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... CLOSE TO WPC THINKING WITH POSITIVE PNA THIS PERIOD. CLIPPER SYSTEMS REINFORCE THE COLD AIR JUST PRIOR TO THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND THEN AGAIN THU-THU NT AND SAT NT. THE ONE JUST PRIOR TO THE START OF THE PERIOD IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO A SIZABLE AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE E COAST MON-TUE. HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST CLIPPER TUE NT...AND THEN SAILS ACROSS ON WED. WARMING ALOFT WED MAY NOT BE REALIZED AT GROUND UNTIL THU...IN THE SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SECOND CLIPPER. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO PROVIDE A GOOD BUT BRIEF UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT THU NT. WHILE STILL AT A DISTANCE WHERE THE MODELS ARE STILL IN FLUX...THE WEEKEND SYSTEM MAY BE MORE INTERESTING THAN JUST A CLIPPER. LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE CLOSE TO WPC. THE GFS40 WAS EMPLOYED THU MORNING AND SAT MORNING...THE BETTER RADIATIVE COOLING NTS. THE FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE CREATE BUST POTENTIAL IN THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CURRENT MVFR CEILINGS ABOUT 1000 FEET AT PKB AND CKB COULD BECOME IFR ABOUT 800 FEET THROUGH MIDNIGHT. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING LIGHT ECHOS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH 03Z. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE PRODUCING IFR CEILINGS AT PKB...CKB AND EKN OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT CKB AND EKN THROUGH 12Z. IN FACT...THE SREF MODEL SUPPORT THESE SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO LOW VFR ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VA...AND SOUTHERN WV AFTER 14Z SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO... NORTHERN WV...AND WV MOUNTAINS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIO: REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR AND IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 01/25/15 UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 EST 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H M H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L L L M H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M H AFTER 00Z MONDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL/JW NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...ARJ/SL

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