Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 281819 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 219 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will sag southward on Monday and Tuesday...with a stronger front on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 145 PM Sunday... Will look for a bit more coverage of convection later thru the remainder of the afternoon over the N WV mountains and along the OH River and into SE OH especially...in association with a weakness in the ridge where some deeper moisture resides. Elected to let the heat advisory run its course as the mid deck is breaking up. After some lingering shra/tsra across SE OH this evening...will look for patchy dense river valley fog to set up in the usual locales. The upper high looks to reposition itself further to the W on Monday...putting the area in more of a NW flow regime aloft with a weak cold front trying to cross in the afternoon. Isolated shra/tsra can be expected...especially across the mountains. Highs will be similar to today. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 220 PM Sunday... Hot and humid weather to start the period with upper ridging in control across the eastern U.S. Frontal boundary will sag south into the Ohio Valley region on Tuesday...eventually crossing the region Wednesday into Thursday...with isold to sct showers and thunderstorms. Behind the front...cooler...and less humid air...as high pressure builds into the region from the north.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 220 PM Sunday... Much of the weekend to remain dry...and less humid with high pressure in control. However this will change as we approach the start of next week...as southwesterly flow increases out ahead of approaching frontal boundary. With upper ridging in place...left the forecast dry for start of next week...although a pop up shower or storm cant be completely ruled out during daytime heating hours.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 145 PM Sunday... 18Z Sunday through 18Z Monday... Isolated to scattered shra/tsra can be expected...especially across the mountains. A mid level disturbance will help to focus coverage more into SE OH early this evening before waning. So...have some VCTS at KEKN/KPKB where confidence is highest and just a scattered to broken 4 to 5 thousand ft cig elsewhere. Dense river valley fog will form overnight...quicker for any TAF site that receiving rain. As a result...some IFR or worse in fog was coded up in the TAFs tonight save for KCKB/KBKW. Any fog will lift by 13Z for a return to VFR conditions areawide thru 18Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: T-showers may impact TAF sites. Extent of dense fog is in question overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L AFTER 18Z MONDAY... Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms through mid week. Early morning IFR possible in areas of fog into mid week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>008- 013>015-024>026. OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ083>087. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SL/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...30

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