Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 280745 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 345 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm front lifts through late today into tonight. Remaining in warm sector through weekend. Cold front Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 345 AM Friday... Weak cold front has exited to the east. Showers from last evening have also moved out/dissipated. Somewhat uncertain about fog potential through early this morning. Did get some light rain across I-79 corridor, however dewpoints have been dropping some behind the front. Best chance of fog will be valleys across the northeast where low level moisture will take a while to scour out in weak flow. Relatively weak high pressure will cross today with a warm front developing and lifting north this evening into tonight. Have some low end POPs in the Tri-state towards 00Z, but best chance of showers and storms will be in northwestern corner of CWA tonight as a 500mb shortwave trough slides through the mid and upper Ohio River Valley. Forecast soundings show a decent cap in place, however if convection is able to break through the cap, there is abundant shear and some elevated instability for storms to work with. Will include mention of isolated strong to severe storms in the HWO in Ohio River Valley.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 PM Thursday... We will look for a warm front to develop across the Ohio Valley Friday night with rounds of convection. It still appears the ridge will build in enough to keep most of this activity northwest of the area but clipping portions of southeast Ohio. This trend holds for Saturday as well with the active warm front shifting further northwest of the area through Sunday. As a result only slight chance pops was inserted across portions of the area this weekend given lack of forcing and a decent cap. Southeasterly low level flow will allow temps to soar well above normal this weekend with the first 90 degree coded up for the Kanawha Valley on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 310 PM Thursday... Cold front will push through the region Monday and Monday night, with rounds of showers and thunderstorms, some of which will be heavy at times. Much cooler air will push in behind the front for early next week. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 200 AM Friday... Cold front has exited to the east, with clearing skies. Dewpoints have been dropping across the central and western CWA, which will make fog formation tough. However, in areas that got some rain Thursday evening, still have some potential. While fairly low confidence, opted for some MVFR fog in the lowlands along I-64 and I-79, with IFR fog at EKN. High pressure today with VFR in some passing mid to high clouds. Showers and storms expected tonight across far NW CWA. Low chance of something making it to PKB so left out for now. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Could get more fog along I-79, with IFR possible. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 04/28/17 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L M H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY M L L M H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY M L L L M M M M H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H M L L L M H H H M M M AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR possible in showers and storms Monday into Monday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/30 NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...MZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.