Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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757 FXUS61 KRLX 252048 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 448 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid as mid summer like conditions return. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 5 PM Thursday... Removed PoP across the area during the next few hours following satellite and radar trends. Rest of forecast remains representative. Previous discussion below... As of 145 PM Thursday... The warmth and muggies are in full force today and this looks to be the start of a prolonged spell of hot and humid conditions. The culprit for this pattern is a persistent upper level ridge centered over the S Appalachians with abundant low level moisture...helping to create the tropical feel in the air. As for sensible wx...the cu from today to wane this evening with loss of heating. Before it does so there will be isolated shra/tsra around in this rich low level moist environment. A weak frontal boundary will encroach overnight and all but dissipate with just a small chance for a shower across N WV. Any dense river valley fog should be confined to locales that received rain this morning. Friday will feature more heat and humidity but probably not as high dewpoints as was observed today. Thus thinking any heat advisory headlines will be avoided with heat index values topping out in the mid to upper 90s across the Lowlands. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As 330 PM Thursday... No changes necessary...a fairly quiet pattern. Hot and humid weather to continue across the region...with upper ridging across the eastern U.S. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible...mainly during peak heating hours...with best chances across the higher terrain counties. Heat indices over the weekend will reach into the mid to upper 90s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As 330 PM Thursday... Stubborn high pressure continues though begins to erode as a tropical system slides westward towards the US mainland, however, quite a bit of model uncertainty so track of system is not well defined. Each subsequent run has been moving the system eastward posing less of a threat to our area. Flow turns more zonal over our area though no appreciable weather in this period at this time. Maintained schc to chance PoPs for the dirty ridge as it flattens. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 PM Thursday... 18Z Thursday through 18Z Friday... Any remaining MVFR cu will scatter and lift into VFR category by 20Z...dissipating this evening with loss of heating. There is an isolated shra/tsra threat this afternoon. A weak frontal boundary will encroach upon the area tonight...dissipating as it attempts to cross. There is a small chance for a shra across N terminals but chance too small to include in TAFs. Thinking dense river valley fog will be confined to sites that received rain this morning so have N sites in IFR or worse fog developing overnight...a bit faster for KEKN. Elsewhere thinking some 6sm hz is possible. Any fog will dissipate in the 12 to 13Z time frame. There could be a brief period of MVFR clouds during the morning hours. We are looking at just a sct cu field as the day the 4 thsd foot range. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of dense fog is in question overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L L L M AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR in morning river valley fog possible through the weekend...depending on cloud cover. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ/30 SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...ARJ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.