Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 220550 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 135 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK FLOW CONTINUES TODAY. FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE TONIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASES WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN FULL CONTROL FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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UPDATE... GAVE THE TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND POPS SOME TLC. NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DIURNAL CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...RADAR INDICATES SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. EXPECT COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION REMAINING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE STORMS AND CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. HOWEVER... COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...FEW CLOUDS AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF DENSE FOG. WHILE MOST OF THE DENSE FOG SHOULD BE LOCATED IN RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER FAVORED LOCATIONS...WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO HAVE LIGHT FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE EXPECTED WEATHER ON TUESDAY SHOULD RESEMBLE THAT FROM TODAY. DENSE FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THERE MAY BE MORE STORMS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS REMAINING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. GUIDANCE IS CLOSE TO FORECASTED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT...SO DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. NOT SURE IF I WANT TO GO AS WARM AS GUIDANCE...BUT DID BUMP FORECASTED HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR TWO.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... FALLING 5H HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS TOUGH DEEPENS. BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING PUSHED OUT AHEAD IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. LATEST NAM12 SHOWING A SLIGHTLY FASTER ARRIVAL TIME OF PRE-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION AND THE TRANSITION OF 5H TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE LATEST GFS. TOOK A CONSENSUS APPROACH BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH A NOD TOWARD THE TIMING PRESENTED BY THE SREF. THIS YIELDED ONLY A MODEST ADJUSTMENT TO THE POP FIELDS. FOR NOW...CHCS FOR SEVERE WX LOOK LOW AS GRADIENT FLOW WILL NOT BE TOO STRONG...WITH ABOUT 25 KTS AT 7H LEVEL WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOR TEMPS...FOLLOWED ALONG WITH BIAS CORRECTED BLEND AND INHERITED VALUES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... POPULATED GRIDS WITH HPC GUIDANCE WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS. 5H TROUGH SLIDES EAST...WHILE AT THE SFC THERE WILL BE AND AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...WITH GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LARGE OCCLUDING SYSTEM MEANDERS SOUTH FOR SUNDAY...AS CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PLAYING OUT THIS SCENARIO LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR A GENERAL UPSWING IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SEEMS TO SETTING UP FOR A SIMILAR PATTERN TO 24 HOURS AGO...WITH FOG ARRIVING IN THE DEEP MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND ALSO IN SE OHIO FIRST. PATCHES OF CLOUDS AOA 4 THSD FT STILL LINGERING OVER WEST VIRGINIA MAY AFFECT FOG FORMATION. TRIED TO DELAY THE FOG FORMATION AROUND CRW TIL AFTER 08Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SLOW MOVING CONVECTION OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AGAIN TODAY...FORMING 16Z TO 19Z. WITH MID LEVEL FLOW STARTING TO VEER TO WEST LATE TODAY...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY CONVECTION IN CKB TO CRW TAFS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING BKW VCNTY AFTER DARK TUESDAY EVENING. CEILINGS 2 TO 4 THSD FT BKN OVER MOUNTAINS NEAR CONVECTION... OTHERWISE CLOUDS MOSTLY 3 TO 5 THSD FT AGL SCATTERED. SOME HAZE ALOFT LIKELY TOWARD SUNSET THIS EVENING. WITH INCREASING FLOW OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...ONLY FIGURING ON DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS REACHING MVFR IN FOG BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG MAY BE LESS ALONG WESTERN SLOPES THAN FORECAST THIS MORNING...SAY CKB TO CRW. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 07/22/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H M L L L L L L H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M L L L L L L H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SECONDLY...IFR POSSIBLE LATER WITH POST FRONTAL CEILINGS ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/KMC/KTB NEAR TERM...JSH/26 SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...KTB

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