Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 291528 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1128 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HEAT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STRONG A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT. A DRY STRETCH WILL FOLLOW STARTING FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1130 AM UPDATE. MARGINAL HEAT INDEX APPROACHING 100 DEGREES IN THE LOW LANDS...EXPANDED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE HEAT TO COVER MOST OF THE LOWLANDS. ALSO EXPANDED ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS WESTWARD TO INCLUDE CENTRAL WV PER CURRENT TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE MAJORITY OF MODELS KEEP THE AREA DRY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ONLY THE NAM IS FASTER WITH THE PCPN ARRIVING TO SOUTHEAST OH BY 00Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...A VERY JUICY AIRMASS AND HOT TEMPERATURES COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS TODAY. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL WV AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT BRINGING THE BULK OF PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE HAVING CHANCE POPS REACHING SOUTHEAST OH AROUND 06Z THURSDAY SPREADING EAST INTO 12Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...FRESHER AIR IS EXPECTED TO LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON PER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...HEAT INDICES COULD REACH 100F THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE MOMENT SEEMS LIKE THERE WILL BE ISOLATED AREAS THAT WILL REACH 100F. WILL HOLD ON THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY IN THE HWO. TWEAKED THE SUPER BLEND NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. THEN A TRANSITION BACK INTO A STRONG SURFACE RIDGING PATTERN WITH THE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SLOWLY CREEPING UPWARDS AGAIN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... EXTENDED REMAINS DRY UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN LOW CHANCES FOR POPS COME BACK INTO PLAY. LOWLAND FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO 90 DEGREES...WITH THE MOUNTAINS THEIR USUAL 5-15 DEGREES OFF THE PACE. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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15Z WEDNESDAY THRU 12Z THURSDAY... LINGERING IFR STRATUS MAINLY SOUTH...AFFECTING BKW...WILL LIFT BY 16Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD RESULT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH HUMIDITY AND DIURNAL HEATING. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS. TIMING AND LOCATIONS FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO MATERIALIZE ARE QUITE DIFFICULT THIS FAR. THEREFORE...INCLUDED VCTS AT MOST PLACES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE SFC AND LIGHT NW ALOFT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... AHEAD OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/30/26 NEAR TERM...ARJ/JMV SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...26/DTC AVIATION...ARJ/JMV

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