Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 281811 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 211 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS OUT...A COLD FRONT CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... NORTHERN ZONES IN A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT DAY FROM THE SOUTHERN 3/4 OF THE CWA AS THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLING LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS AND LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN CKB COMPARED TO CRW-HTS ARE 12-15 DEGREES OFF THE PACE CURRENTLY AND JUST CRACKED THE 60F MARK. SLOWLY BUT SURELY...SHOULD SEE THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. FOR NOW...ONE WOULD NOT KNOW IT IS JUST A FEW DAYS FROM JULY IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. AN UNOFFICIAL TEMPERATURE LABELED AS CASS NEAR 4800FT HAS IT AT 48F. EXPECTING RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT. CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AS THE NEXT TROUGH AXIS ALOFT DROPS IN THROUGH THE BROAD SCALE FLOW. WILL RESIST REFERRING THIS TO ANY SORT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WOULD ORIGINATE IN THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IN A RECOVERY FROM THIS ATYPICAL DRY SUMMER AIRMASS WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY...AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW. ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...HUMIDITY WILL CLIMB BACK UP AGAIN...WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO RISE BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THUS...THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT...WHICH WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY...TO BE FOLLOWED BY WAVES MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT...AND A SECONDARY FRONT MID WEEK...WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A RATHER STORMY WEEK. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES...BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT STORMS WILL MOVE...THEREBY SOMEWHAT LIMITING FLOODING POTENTIAL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... GIVEN THE CONTINUATION OF A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS AND FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK...WILL GENERALLY KEEP THIS PERIOD UNSETTLED. HARD TO TIME THESE SYSTEMS...SO WILL BROADBRUSH AND KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...EVEN AS THE COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS EXITS EAST BY MONDAY. && .AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLING LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS INTO CKB AND EKN GIVING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS RESPECTIVELY. ELSEWHERE...VFR DOMINANT IN SCT CEILINGS ABOVE 3500FT. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT OVER CKB AND EKN INTO THE LATER AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SLOW. WITH CLEARING TONIGHT...FOLLOWED A COMBINATION OF THE LAMP AND AGGRESSIVE NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR FOG IN THE VALLEYS. VFR MONDAY AFTER FOG MIXES OUT BEYOND 13Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY. CKB/EKN IMPROVEMENTS THIS AFTERNOON MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR TWO. AFTER 18Z MONDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED. && WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SL/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...26

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