Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 220910 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 410 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 700 PM UPDATE... ADDED A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN TO PERRY COUNTY SAT MORNING...NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HAZARDS. ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT / BRIEF...AS THE COLD AIR SHOULD BE QUICKLY ERADICATED. THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR THAT WOULD WET BULB THE TEMPERATURE AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO HOLD OFF SAID ONSET. PREV DISCN BELOW... HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AS HIGH PULLS EAST. MAY EVEN HAVE A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS OHIO. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...SO LEFT ANY POPS OUT OF FAR NW CORNER. PLUS...ANY PRECIP THAT MAY FALL FROM CLOUDS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND WITH DRY AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE. STARTED WITH A MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...THEN MADE A FEW TWEAKS. WENT NON-DIURNAL ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ALSO WENT A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE WEST AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID. THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST. COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY 06 TUESDAY. WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST. MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION. SHORTWAVES ARE MORE EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW. TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 11/22/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...JW

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.