Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 220534 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 134 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low level moisture on the increase today. Weak disturbances drop southeast today and Saturday. Front stalls in Upper Ohio Valley Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Upper clouds incoming from the NW early this morning...but it continues to look like any precip associated with the MCS in northern IL and IN should remain to our west. Dirty ridge just to our west through the period, and will have some week upper disturbances drop down the eastern side of the ridge today into tonight. With these, have isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms...with the highest POPs across the Mid Ohio River Valley. Blended ECMWF mos into previous forecast, with only minimal changes. Mainly a bit warmer overnight. Today will be a warm day, with increasing dewpoint. Heat indices top out just below advisory criteria this afternoon -- in the mid and upper 90s across the lowlands. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The heat wave that has been advertised for the past several days will be at its apex over the weekend...assuming we stay dry. It still appears that most of Saturday will remain dry with just an isolated threat late in the day. High temps in the lowlands look top out in the 92 to 95 range with heat index values likely exceeding 100 in SE OH/NE KY/and S half of WV. A weak frontal boundary looks to remain to the north of the area thru the period. However...models are in good agreement on developing a convective complex in S WI/NE IL Saturday evening and diving SE overnight. Debris clouds would likely temper high temps a bit aside from any possible uptick in convection from this feature. Have knocked down prev fcst highs a few degrees which most guidance suggest. HWO continues with advertising possible heat advisories for the weekend. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... It will turn more unsettled early next week with the arrival of a frontal boundary coupled with a s/w trof passage. These features will make a run toward the area later on Monday with convection chances increasing thru the afternoon and especially into the evening hours. The upper ridge will flatten as the overall pattern turns more zonal with generally weak flow through the atmosphere. This will keep the unsettled pattern going thru Tuesday as the the front will be in no hurry to push through. With the light flow and high pwats...some slow moving downpours are in the cards. The front finally gets a nudge to the S by Wednesday with mid level drying spreading into the area keeping afternoon shra/tsra chances confined over S WV/SW VA in the better moisture. Temps will gradually ease back closer to normal levels midweek...likely ending the heat wave over portions of the area Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Cirrus clouds arriving from the NW early this morning...which should keep most dense fog at bay. Once exception in EKN, where clouds will arrive latest, so went with some IFR there. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon, but right now thinking coverage to low to include in TAFs. However, will need to keep watch on this and may need to add in at least VCTS mention in the Ohio River Valley. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing at EKN may vary. May need to add VCTS or thunder for this afternoon. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 07/22/16 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L L H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... Depending on remnant clouds, IFR fog may be possible Saturday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/30 NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...MZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.