Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 152000 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 348 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT POSSIBLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF REINFORCING COLD FRONT. FLOW INCREASES A BIT TONIGHT BUT OVERALL FORCING DECREASES WITH FRONT AS IT APPROACHES. IN FACT APPEARS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUT PACES LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY TONIGHT. SO WHILE SOME SHRA ARE EXPECTED...THINK GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER SE OH AND N WV THIS EVENING. HAVE SOME HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS WITH LOWER POPS ELSEWHERE. ELECTED TO ROLL WITH COVERAGE WORDING IN WX GRIDS. TIMING OF FROPA LOOKS TO BE 03-05Z FOR SE OH...SLOWING DOWN ONCE INTO WV WITH TIMING 06Z-12Z LOWLANDS AND EXITING SW VA BY EARLY MIDDAY. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LACKING SO HAVE NEGLECTED MENTION OF THUNDER. EXPECT SOME POST FRONTAL STRATUS TOMORROW MORNING...WHICH MAY LINGER INTO EARLY AFTN HRS ALONG AND S OF I64. ROLLED WITH LOCAL MOS FOR TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW...GENERALLY SPEAKING. TRIED TO STAY A HAIR BELOW GUIDANCE TOMORROW S WV OWING TO CLOUD COVER. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE RULES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MODELS DO HAVE A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT DUE TO LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT ONLY SOME CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...USED A BLEND OF THE GFS...ECMWF...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS KEEPS THE AREA UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING SOME. FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR FRONTAL TIMING. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MID AND HI CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THE EVENING HRS AMID SOME SCT 3 TO 4 THSD FT CU. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW...BRINGING WITH IT THREAT FOR SHRA. HOWEVER...THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW ATTM TO INCORPORATE ANYTHING OTHER THAN VCSH IN TAFS. LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT AND THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD MITIGATE DENSE FOG...SAVE FOR PERHAPS KEKN. EXPECT SOME POST FRONTAL MVFR STRATUS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND S OF I64 AND IN THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW MORNING. AS SUCH HAVE MVFR CIGS FOR KHTS/KCRW/KBKW/KEKN TAFS. HARD TO FIGURE IF CIGS WILL BE BETWEEN 1-2 THSD FT OR 2-3 THSD FT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD...SWITCHING TO OUT OF THE N BEHIND THE FRONT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DENSITY OF FOG TONIGHT IN QUESTION. CIGS MAY BE TOO LOW POST FRONTAL TOMORROW MORNING. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...30

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.