Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KRLX 220534
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
134 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016
Low level moisture on the increase today. Weak disturbances drop
southeast today and Saturday. Front stalls in Upper Ohio Valley
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper clouds incoming from the NW early this morning...but it
continues to look like any precip associated with the MCS in
northern IL and IN should remain to our west.
Dirty ridge just to our west through the period, and will have
some week upper disturbances drop down the eastern side of the
ridge today into tonight. With these, have isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms...with the highest POPs across the Mid
Ohio River Valley.
Blended ECMWF mos into previous forecast, with only minimal
changes. Mainly a bit warmer overnight. Today will be a warm day,
with increasing dewpoint. Heat indices top out just below
advisory criteria this afternoon -- in the mid and upper 90s
across the lowlands.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The heat wave that has been advertised for the past several days
will be at its apex over the weekend...assuming we stay dry. It
still appears that most of Saturday will remain dry with just an
isolated threat late in the day. High temps in the lowlands look
top out in the 92 to 95 range with heat index values likely
exceeding 100 in SE OH/NE KY/and S half of WV.
A weak frontal boundary looks to remain to the north of the area
thru the period. However...models are in good agreement on
developing a convective complex in S WI/NE IL Saturday evening and
diving SE overnight. Debris clouds would likely temper high temps
a bit aside from any possible uptick in convection from this
feature. Have knocked down prev fcst highs a few degrees which
most guidance suggest. HWO continues with advertising possible
heat advisories for the weekend.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
It will turn more unsettled early next week with the arrival of a
frontal boundary coupled with a s/w trof passage. These features
will make a run toward the area later on Monday with convection
chances increasing thru the afternoon and especially into the
evening hours. The upper ridge will flatten as the overall pattern
turns more zonal with generally weak flow through the atmosphere.
This will keep the unsettled pattern going thru Tuesday as the the
front will be in no hurry to push through. With the light flow and
high pwats...some slow moving downpours are in the cards. The
front finally gets a nudge to the S by Wednesday with mid level
drying spreading into the area keeping afternoon shra/tsra chances
confined over S WV/SW VA in the better moisture.
Temps will gradually ease back closer to normal levels
midweek...likely ending the heat wave over portions of the area Monday.
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cirrus clouds arriving from the NW early this morning...which
should keep most dense fog at bay. Once exception in EKN, where
clouds will arrive latest, so went with some IFR there.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon,
but right now thinking coverage to low to include in TAFs.
However, will need to keep watch on this and may need to add in
at least VCTS mention in the Ohio River Valley.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing at EKN may vary. May need to add
VCTS or thunder for this afternoon.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 07/22/16
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L L H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
Depending on remnant clouds, IFR fog may be possible Saturday