Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 030657 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 257 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES TODAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY...THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF. TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S EXPECTED FOR LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ACTUAL FRONT CROSSES THE OH RIVER BY 00Z THURSDAY. SO...CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AIR FILTERS IN LATE WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSES THURSDAY TO CONTINUE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN CREATE UNSTABLE AIR WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING...LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... USED AN ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR THE FORECAST DUE TO SPREAD IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND A PATTERN TRANSITION. THIS BRINGS IN SOME DRIER AIR FOR SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH MOISTURE REMAINING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS INTO DAYBREAK. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE RIGHT BEFORE DAWN BUT THE STRATOCU SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIFT A BIT BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL NOT BE GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON AND CEILINGS COULD LOWER AGAIN AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO ADD TO THESE ROUND OF TAFS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE FORMATION OF IFR CEILINGS AT SOME LOCATIONS...AND ALSO ON LIFTING OF STRATUS LATER TODAY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 05/03/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L L L L M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L M EKN CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...MPK

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