Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 252321 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 721 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler through Tuesday with upper level disturbances providing a few light showers, even a thunderstorm. Dry midweek under high pressure. Progressive pattern takes hold late week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 350 PM Sunday... Latest radar mosaic shows showers have begun to develop across portions of southeast Ohio. While most models do not show these showers, the max precipitation image from the NCAR ensembles does hint at them. Since the precipitation is developing, have tracked the showers eastward based on the NCAR ensembles. Showers should exit the region to the east or dissipate shortly after 00 UTC. As of 220 PM Sunday... Surface high pressure with an upper level short wave moving through this afternoon. The two features should largely offset each other, but for now, have a dry forecast. There is a chance that the wave could be strong enough to spawn a few showers especially north of I-64 and more likely north of Parkersburg. Clearing should ensue tonight with most places largely escaping any foggy conditions, so did not include fog in the forecast either. The exception may be the northern WV mountains. Monday should be cool and dry with a front approaching Monday night. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Sunday... A cold front and upper level trough will bring showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday. Kept POPs capped at high chance with somewhat limited moisture and time of day. Cool high pressure settles in behind the cold front with below normal temperatures and dry weather. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 240 PM Sunday... High pressure is on the way out Thursday with low level southerly flow taking over. This will begin pumping moisture back into the region. Aloft, several shortwave troughs will cross, with each providing potential showers and thunderstorms. A cold front next weekend should provide better organization and have likely POPs. ECMWF and GFS differ a bit on timing, so stuck with a consensus for now. With the southerly flow, temperatures will be running just above normal. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 720 pm Sunday... Latest radar mosaic shows scattered showers continue to move across north-central portions of West Virginia. However, expect VFR conditions dominate the region at this time, even in the showers. High pressure with VFR conditions should prevail in most locations through the remainder of the period. However, light winds may result in some MVFR conditions in river valley fog between 09 UTC thru 12 UTC. Expect light westerly to northwesterly flow. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None except MVFR fog possible KEKN. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ NEAR TERM...JSH/JW SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...JSH

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