Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 190237 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1037 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front sinks into the area tonight, stalls and returns back north Wednesday. A much stronger front moves through Thursday night. High pressure builds in by Sunday and early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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1030 PM Update...Tweaked PoP based on meso model trends and current radar. Also have removed fog from the forecast with clouds moving in we should not see fog overnight. 730 PM Update...Slightly tweaked sky cover and PoP based on current METSAT, Radar, and observations. Basically, delayed the arrival of showers with the approaching cold front tonight. As of 210 PM Tuesday... Decent deck of cumulus has developed across the forecast for this afternoon increased cloud cover and decreased high temps a degree or two. Going for low to mid 80s across the western half of CWA, which is still well above normal and near record levels, however widespread record highs are not a slam dunk due to the clouds. A cold front is currently moving through the central Great Lakes. This front will sink into the forecast area from the NW tonight, weakening as it does. Eventually stalling out before lifting back north as a warm front on Wednesday. Models have trended a bit farther south before the stall, so leaked some POPs south to about the I-64 corridor, although still limited likely POPs to the NW corner of CWA late tonight. For Wednesday, have POPs increasing with the diurnal trend and gradually lifting back north with the front as a surface low starts moving through the mid/southern Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. Included an isolated rumble of thunder from southeast Ohio into north central West Virginia.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM Tuesday... Good model consensus on a strong upper trough driving a strong cold front eastward across the area later Thursday and Thursday night. There will be plenty of moisture available in a plume of high PW`S, on the order of 1.5 to 1.75 inches. With the upper trough taking on a negative tilt, plenty of dynamics will combine with the plentiful moisture to push a widespread band of showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front Thursday into Thursday night. QPF will likely be on the order of a half an inch to an inch. We will keep an eye out for any severe thunderstorm potential as the system gets closer. High temperatures Thursday of around 80 degrees will take a nose dive Thursday night as the front exits the mountains, while the blustery northwest winds take over. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 315 PM Tuesday... Friday will be blustery and chilly with lingering showers under the upper trough, with gusty northwest winds. Look for highs only in the 50s. Models then lift the upper trough out beginning late Saturday, ending any lingering showers in the mountains Saturday morning. Some snow flakes may fly Friday night in the highest elevations of the northern mountains, but little to no accumulation. As the upper trough lifts out and high pressure builds in, look for dry weather Sunday into early next week with a warming trend. Temperatures will get back to near normal by Monday. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 745 PM Tuesday... Cold front is approaching the region this evening. VFR stratus is currently pushing into the Ohio Valley with upstream stations observing ceilings of about 4 to 5K feet. Ceilings should lower as the front gets closer with possible MVFR ceilings and even some light rain with the front. Have removed IFR fog from the forecast at EKN with the 00Z issuence. Based on the current estimated arrival time, the stratus will arrive between 03Z to 04Z, and that should not be enough time for them to cool enough. There is some uncertainty on how low ceilings will be with the stratus early tomorrow morning. For now it appears that light rain or even drizzle will also be accompanied with MVFR ceilings, but not enough confidence to add IFR stratus early tomorrow morning at this time. The lowest ceilings should be in the closest vicinity of the front, which will stations north of I64 corridor. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Uncertainty still how far south low stratus will make it. Also, near the vicinity of the front its possible there could be some IFR stratus early tomorrow morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M L M H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M M AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... Typical early morning valley fog possible this week. IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ/MPK SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...MPK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.