Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 030814 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 414 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AREA TONIGHT...THEN TO OUR EAST ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY-MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SLOW MOVING SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DRIFTING BACK INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THAT WILL STRENGTHEN SOME TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FARTHER WEST AND NORTH WITH THE PRECIPITATION INTO THIS EVENING. DUE TO THIS...ADDED A TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE OHIO AND CENTRAL WV. DOWNPOURS ARE JUST AS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOT IN PLACE...BUT THIS AREA HAS HAD SOME TIME TO DRY OUT SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT RAIN. WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED ISSUES SHOULD A SLOW MOVING CELL OR REPETITIVE CELLS CROSS A SPECIFIC AREA. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING A DRY SLOT OF SORTS MOVING INTO THE WV COAL FIELDS TODAY. NOT SURE THE LOW WILL GET SPUN UP ENOUGH TO PULL IN ENOUGH DRY AIR TO BE A TRUE DRY SLOT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BIT SPOTTIER COVERAGE OR LESS INTENSE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HERE. DID TRY TO SHOW A BIT LOWER POPS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH STILL HAVE LIKELY NUMBERS. AS THE LOW HEAD TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY TRY TO WORK IN FROM THE NW. WHILE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY COME TO AN END ACROSS THE WEST...THINK LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES...WHICH DID NOT MAKE ANY HUGE SWINGS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A BIT LEERY/SKEPTICAL OF THE 00Z NAM PUSHING THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY SE ON SATURDAY AND EVEN KEEPING OUR EASTERN SLOPES DRY SUNDAY. WILL TREND TOWARD A SLOWER DRYING TREND IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES INDEPENDENCE DAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW CLOUDS TRY TO BREAK UP. YET...WAS STILL FASTER IN REMOVING POPS SATURDAY IN OUR MID OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES...INCLUDING ATHENS...MARIETTA...AND PARKERSBURG...THEN OUR PREVIOUS THINKING. ANY CHANCES OF THUNDER SATURDAY SHOULD RESTRICTED TO MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON EAST. WITH DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...TRIED TO LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. IN THE GRADIENT OR TRANSITION ZONE...INCLUDED FOG FORMING CKB-EKN TO CRW VCNTY OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK STEERING FLOW ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A WEAK 500 MB LOW POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO WILL HOLD ONTO POPS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY SNOWSHOE...BECKLEY ON SW TOWARD GRUNDY. AT LEAST THE PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE LOWERING DURING THE SHORT TERM...COMPARED TO THE CURRENT NEAR TERM. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY...A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD. WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY HAVE STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING IN VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS. EXPECT IFR AT ALL TAF SITES AT TIMES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING IN FOG OR LOW STRATUS OR BOTH IN SOME CASES. THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE SOME AFTER SUNRISE...BUT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT MVFR TO LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY IN RAIN...STORMS AND OR LOW STRATUS. SHOULD BE SIMILAR TONIGHT...WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGING FOG AND LOW STRATUS. WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE NE TO E...WITH SW WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. IT SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN QUESTION TONIGHT. TIMING AND EXTENT OF DOWNPOURS TOMORROW MAY VARY. AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>008-013>016- 024>027-033>037. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ083-086-087. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...MZ

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