Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 290654 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 254 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT DISSOLVES OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A NEW FRONT WILL MEANDER BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 215 AM UPDATE... NO MAJOR CHANGES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM WILL LIKELY BREAK UP A BIT AS THEY ENTER THE FCST AREA FROM THE W DURING THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS MON. 1045 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... NORTHERN ZONES IN A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT DAY FROM THE SOUTHERN 3/4 OF THE CWA AS THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLING LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS AND LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN CKB COMPARED TO CRW-HTS ARE 12-15 DEGREES OFF THE PACE CURRENTLY AND JUST CRACKED THE 60F MARK. SLOWLY BUT SURELY...SHOULD SEE THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. FOR NOW...ONE WOULD NOT KNOW IT IS JUST A FEW DAYS FROM JULY IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. AN UNOFFICIAL TEMPERATURE LABELED AS CASS NEAR 4800FT HAS IT AT 48F. EXPECTING RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT. CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AS THE NEXT TROUGH AXIS ALOFT DROPS IN THROUGH THE BROAD SCALE FLOW. WILL RESIST REFERRING THIS TO ANY SORT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WOULD ORIGINATE IN THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IN A RECOVERY FROM THIS ATYPICAL DRY SUMMER AIRMASS WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ISSUED BY SPC FOR THE TRI STATE AREA GIVEN THE SHARP GRADIENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOWS COUPLED WITH THE RAPID INCREASE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE NORTH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. NUMEROUS WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL HELP TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED FROM ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN MCS TYPE FEATURE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS...BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES IN THE HWO.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN. GIVEN THE CONTINUATION OF A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS AND FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WILL GENERALLY KEEP THIS PERIOD UNSETTLED. HARD TO TIME THESE SYSTEMS...SO WILL AGAIN BROAD BRUSH AND KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR EACH DAY. WATER CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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DENSE VALLEY FOG HAS FORMED IN THE VALLEYS OF NRN WV WHERE DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS PERSISTED INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS FARTHER S HAD DRYING WINDS ON SUNDAY SO EVEN MVFR MIST IS QUESTIONABLE THERE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W MON AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSOLVE OVER THE AREA MON NT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE W MON MORNING WILL LIKELY BREAK UP SOMEWHAT AT FIRST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO CROSS THE AREA LATER MON AFTERNOON AND MON NT...WHEN THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. SFC FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT SW WHILE FLOW LIGHT SW ALOFT THROUGH MON WILL BECOME MODERATE SW MON NT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY MON AND MON NT. AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED. BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ/26 SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...TRM

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