Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 282311 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 700 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY. STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE FRIDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL OHIO DOWN TO CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS AFFECTING THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA ATTM. THIS ALSO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDER DIMINISHES AFTER SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER AND DRYER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 50S LOWLANDS AND MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... QUIET BUT COOL WX REGIME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CAA WITH PASSAGE OF DRY UPPER TROF ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY RESULT INCREASE IN STRATOCU IN THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ONCE THERMAL TROF PASSES...THE AREA SHOULD SEE CLEARING FROM W TO E THURSDAY. THE UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES FRIDAY IN A BIG WAY...WITH QUITE THE COLD SHOT TO ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT. GOOD LIFT AND DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CATEGORICAL FOR THE MOUNTAINS. WITH CAA SENDING H85 TEMPS DOWN TO JUST BELOW 0C ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...HAVE TRANSITIONED ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3 KFT TO SNOW SHOWERS BY 00Z. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... INCREASED POPS PRETTY DRASTICALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON RAIN VS. SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. GFS IS QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE ECMWF...AND THE ECMWF TRENDED A TOUCH WARMER WHEN COMPARING THE 00Z AND 12Z RUNS. HAVE MOST AREAS TURNING OVER TO SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY 12Z SAT...ALTHOUGH LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN SATURDAY...AND EXPECT FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN HWO. STAYED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM SUNDAY ON AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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HAVE FRONT NEAR UNI-HTS-JKL NEAR 23Z. HAVE FRONT CRW VCNTY BETWEEN 01 AND 02Z AND EKN-BKW VCNTY 04Z. COULD STILL BE A FEW LIGHTNING STROKES ALONG THE FRONT. WILL BE A BIT FASTER IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN WAKE OF FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...BUT MAY ACTUALLY BE A BIT SLOWER IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTH...SAY BKW ON SOUTH. WITH MEAN 500 MB TROF TO OUR WEST...SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS OR RAIN FIGURED TO LINGER THROUGH 12Z IN OUR EXTREME SOUTH. LOWEST CEILINGS ARE JUST IN WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS...BUT FIGURING THESE POST FRONTAL LOWER CEILINGS WILL LAST LONGER OVER THE SOUTHERN WV MOUNTAINS INCLUDING BKW VCNTY. HAVE CEILINGS DROPPING TO NEAR 2 THSD ACROSS WESTERN LOWLANDS JUST BEHIND FRONT...BEFORE IMPROVING...WHILE POST FRONTAL CEILINGS ACROSS MOUNTAINS DROP INTO THE 1 TO 2 THSD FT RANGE. VSBY 2 TO 4 MILES IN THE FRONT SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM. SOME 4 TO 5 MILES IN POST FRONTAL SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN IN THE SOUTH 06Z TO 12Z. IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS 12Z TO 15Z...WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED CLOUDS 3 TO 6 THSD FT AREA WIDE DURING THE 15Z TO 18Z PERIOD. IN COLD AIR ADVECTION...CEILINGS FORMING AROUND 3 TO 5 THSD FT FROM NW TO SE 18Z WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE IMPROVING POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN WV MOUNTAINS MAY VARY. MAY BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... SOME IFR IN VALLEY FOG IN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY. IFR IN STRATUS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND EVEN IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ/30 NEAR TERM...JS SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...KTB

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