Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 010104 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 904 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS EVENING...WITH THE FRONT THEN MEANDERING BACK AND FORTH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AMID WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 740 PM UPDATE...UPDATED POPS TRYING TO REFLECT THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN SHOWERS BEHIND IT. SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHAT HAPPENS TO CONVECTION HEADED INTO SW OHIO...WENT WITH A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE HRRR WHICH BRINGS PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE TRI-STATE WITH THIS...BUT IN A MUCH WEAKENED FORM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... CONVECTION HAS FIRED RIGHT ON CUE ACROSS OH...IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER TROF AND REMNANT MCV. A POTENT S/W TROF WILL ROTATE THRU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LAGGING BEHIND. NEAR TERM HI RES MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...WITH THE FIRST AND MORE SIGNIFICANT ONE SLATED FOR AROUND 18Z ENTERING SE OH AND MAKING INROADS INTO C WV BY 22Z AND SHIFTING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 00 AND 02Z. INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL ALONG WITH OVERALL SHEAR WHICH REMAINS LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL. STILL ENOUGH BL HEATING TO HELP BOOST THINGS ALONG WITH A HINT OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE STEEPENING WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROF AXIS. SO...EXPECT A LINE OF STRONG TO PERHAPS A FEW SVR TO ROLL THRU SE OH LATER THIS AFTN...WEAKENING AFTER 00Z FOR E WV. A SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. CONCERNING FLOODING POTENTIAL...PWATS ARE MEAGER BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TRAINING ACROSS SE OH FOR SOME ISOLATED ISSUES IN THE STRONGER CELLS. AFTER CONVECTION WANES LATER THIS EVENING...WILL BE WATCHING FOR THE FRONT TO SAG IN. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO WASH OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA...ALL THE WHILE...THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS WITH QUITE A BIT OF DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS. WITH JUST ENOUGH BL PUFF AN DRY AIR ADVECTING IN THE MID LEVELS...THERE MAY BE SOME LOW STRATUS TO CONTEND WITH IN ADDITION TO SOME FG. THIS STRATUS WILL MIX OUT MID MORNING INTO CU FIELD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S ZONES. HAVE LEFT MOST OF THE AREA DRY TOMORROW SAVE FOR S ZONES AS MUCH OF THE REGION IS DRY AIR CAPPED. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS SLOWLY SOUTH THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE JUICY...WITH MODELS SHOWING ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...AND PWATS AROUND 1.9 INCHES. H500 CHARTS SHOW A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXES PASSING BY. EXPECT THESE SHORT WAVES TO INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY AND PRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS FROM THE WEST SUPPRESSING PCPN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH. MINOR CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST. GENERALLY...LOWS WILL STAY IN THE MID 60S AND HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... CHANCES FOR PCPN DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE PREFERRED ECMWF MODEL OVER THE GFS...SHOWING QPF MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WV WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE. HAVE LIKELY POPS SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST. MODELS SPREAD SOLUTIONS FROM DAY 4 TO DAY 7...SHOWING LIGHT PCPN SUGGESTING UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY...MAINTAINED CHANCE POP MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND SLIGHT CHANCE AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 80S LOWLANDS RANGING TO THE LOWER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS SHOULD STAY IN THE MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA...AND HAVE SOME TSRA IN TAFS IN THOSE AREAS. FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHAT HAPPENS OVERNIGHT WITH RESPECT TO FOG. THE SURFACE WILL BE WET DUE TO RECENT RAIN...BUT SHOULD KEEP SOME FLOW GOING AS WELL. LEANED HEAVILY ON THE LAMP WHICH GIVES MAINLY MVFR IN RIVER VALLEYS...WITH IFR AT EKN. ALSO EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. KEPT THIS MVFR. THAT LOW STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO A VFR CU DECK WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OR STRATUS OVERNIGHT IN QUESTION. AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...MZ/30 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...MZ

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