Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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561 FXUS61 KRLX 302342 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 742 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level ridge rebuilds for mid week. Cold front arrives Thursday with showers and storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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730 pm update...Forecast remains on track with high pressure moving in...no changes are needed at this time. Have a discreet little band of moisture that has just traversed the Ohio River...allowing convection to build just enough to support a few isolated showers/thunderstorms. Band of moisture shows up really well in the 700-600mb layer...where this layer is bone dry elsewhere across the CWA. Convection also going up over the mountains early this afternoon...but again...looking at isolated to scattered activity. Clearing tonight with developing valley fog likely. Dewpoints down in the lower 60s will allow for temperatures to drop as low...with 50s in the higher elevations. Ridging aloft returns...with weak disturbances within. Mid levels will still be very dry...less some convective feedback seen on the NAM over the mountains...which should limit any realized shower/thunderstorm activity. Did increase the coverage of the low POPS tomorrow...but still confine them generally to the mountains.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Not much change...upper level ridge still lingers in the region and is slow to flatten out keeping diurnal thunderstorms in the vicinity. A trough finally arrives on Thursday bringing a cold front through with some instability for some thunderstorms and rain showers. Front hangs up on the mountains keeping precip chances there. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Weak upper level ridge moves in Friday evening helping to dry things out before another upper level wave begins to move into the area for Sunday for another round of showers and thunderstorms. Troughy pattern should keep lingering showers around...and temperatures may be quite cool up in the mountains. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... Another cold front approaches from the west Friday morning. Kept high chance PoPs lowlands and likely PoPs over elevations of 3000 feet and higher. Current track of remnants of tropical storm Bonnie approach from the southeast Thursday through Friday. Attm, seems that the showers will stay over the eastern mountains Wednesday and Wednesday night. An upper trough moves east across the Great Lakes region on Sunday. This second system is strong enough to drive a weak front across the area Sunday night and Monday morning. Went with a combination of the super blend and the all blend guidance for temperatures through the period. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure is moving into the region and skies should become mostly clear after sunset. The trick tonight will be if we will see fog develop. Airmass today is much drier...however dewpoints remain in the upper 50s to low 60s and with radiational cooling overnight...temperatures could come very close to crossover values and favor fog development. Currently, I have more confidence that CKB will see IFR fog than any other site simply because they received rainfall today...enhancing low level moisture. Everywhere else confidence is much lower so decided to hold off from putting IFR fog in there now and will reassess at the 03Z update. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of valley fog tonight may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 05/31/16 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... River valley IFR fog possible early Tuesday morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/26 NEAR TERM...MPK/26 SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...MPK

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