Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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290 FXUS61 KRLX 191944 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 244 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... With high pressure passing south of the area, a southwest flow will bring milder air through the weekend, with a warm front passing Saturday. A strong cold front crosses late Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 PM Friday... A ridge of high pressure remains in place with the center of high pressure over the north central Gulf coast providing dry weather to start the near-term. Brilliant sunshine and modest low- level warm air advection warms us nicely into the 40`s across lowland locations this afternoon. Decoupling tonight a little tougher than last night with SW flow picking up aloft, but still a decent bet in the most deeply incised, sheltered valleys. Models are still struggling to latch onto any one solution at this point. So have chose a middle-of-the-road approach favoring cooler temperatures in low spots. Tomorrow, moisture starts streaming in from the west/southwest providing some low-level clouds/stratus to start. Low-levels and eventually mid-levels saturate through the day, particularly across the northern zones. So, have decided to introduce drizzle Saturday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 230 PM Friday... A warm front moves towards the area late Saturday night with overrunning. Forecast soundings are indicating a period of possible drizzle and fog as the warm moist air starts to push in. In the Northeast mountain valleys, some areas could be below freezing and may have a period of freezing drizzle or fog before we eventually warm early Sunday morning. Warm frontal light rain will continue on Sunday, with very light amounts expected. Temperatures Sunday will just up into the mid to possibly upper 50s.
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As of 245 PM Thursday... Strong cold front will push into the Ohio Valley Monday afternoon. POPs increase quickly after 18Z Monday and widespread rain will overspreads the region Monday night. Thinking amounts should only be a half in or less in most places, but on the high end, maybe three quarters of an inch could fall in some spots. Cold air will push in behind the front on Tuesday and could see a changeover to snow, especially in the mountains, but moisture will be limited. Flow aloft settles back into a zonal pattern for the back end of the extended forecast. High pressure and warmer air should work back in by the end of next week.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 100 PM Friday... VFR conditions through today and tonight. Winds generally out of the SW at 5-10 kts with gusts in the teens possible this afternoon. Saturday morning, LLWS a distinct possibility across sheltered site of EKN and perhaps elsewhere with 2kft winds around 40kts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low ceilings possible in southern, western TAF sites Saturday near the end of this TAF period. Currently few/sct clouds however there may be instances of bkn/ovc MVFR. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR possible Saturday night with fog and drizzle...and again Monday/Monday night with rain. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26/MC NEAR TERM...MC SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...MC HYDROLOGY... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.