Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 042353 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 653 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONT PUSHING FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA...WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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645 PM UPDATE...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. CHANGE OVER TO PL/SN IS MAYBE A HAIR SLOWER THAN WHAT IS IN THE FORECAST...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A DELAY TO MAKE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST. AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED IN TIME UNTIL 5 AM THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PREV DISCN... RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND FLOODING EVENT TO A HEAVY SNOW EVENT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...CONTINUING THE SNOW INTO THURSDAY ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SLEET AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. CHANGES MADE WERE TO DELAY THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO WINTRY PRECIP BY A COUPLE OF HOURS...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR IS STILL OUT IN FAR WESTERN OHIO. WHILE KEEPING WINTER HEADLINES AND CRITERIA FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WE SHIFTED THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW FROM SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...PER MODEL GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...THINGS WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN AS ARCTIC AIR REAPPEARS. TEMPERATURES FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S AND EVEN TEENS ...NOT RECOVERING MUCH ON THURSDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SNOW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE BIG SYSTEM IS EXODUS COME THE START OF THIS PERIOD. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN UPSLOPE FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH...WANE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT THU NT...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE UPSLOPE FLOW...AND THE S/W TROUGH QUICKLY SCOOTS E OF THE AREA. THE HIGH THEN RULES THE ROOST INTO FRI NT...BEFORE DRIFTING S AND GIVING WAY TO SW FLOW AHEAD OF A NEW COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE WEATHER MAP CHANGES LITTLE FOR THIS AREA SAT AS THAT COLD FRONT PUSHES MORE E THAN S. STILL BANKING ON HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FAST ENOUGH FOR LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO ATOP FRESH SNOW COVER THU NT. THESE LOWS ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST AND CURRENT GUIDANCE...AND THIS TREND CONTINUES FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET SPELLS BASICALLY A TEMP/DEW/SKY FCST. A WEAK COLD FRONT AND CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH CROSS SUN INTO SUN NT...WITH THE SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS N. A POLAR PACIFIC HIGH FOLLOWS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. A WARM WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE S DAY 7...AS THE CONFLUENCE ZONE LIFTS N OF THE AREA...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN SW AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH. LOWS SAT NT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...BUT DID A WARM RIDGE/COLD VALLEY SEPARATION. OTHERWISE BLENDED IN WPC FOR LITTLE CHANGE ON LOWS MON AND TUE NTS. BLENDED IN WPC AND ECMWF FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD...A LITTLE LOWER SUN AND A LITTLE HIGHER ON TUE COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS. OVERALL HAVE A STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND EARLY ON WITH A SLOW MELT GIVEN LOWS AND DEW POINTS BELOW FREEZING AND HIGHS IN THE 40S. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TREND UPWARD DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD PER AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES AND S TO SE FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE...AND AHEAD OF WARM WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE S. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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20Z WEDNESDAY THRU 12Z THURSDAY... HEAVY RAIN...WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY MIX...THEN TO ALL SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. EXPECTING ALL OF SOUTHEAST OHIO TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY 01Z...WITH CHANGE OVER ACROSS NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES NEAR TO OHIO RIVER BY 03Z INCLUDING SITES KPKB AND KHTS...AND CHANGE OVER ACROSS MOST OF REMAINING WEST VA AND VA COUNTIES AFTER 06Z. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...GENERALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 16Z. SURFACE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NW AND LIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS RIDGETOPS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MAY NOT PERSIST AS LONG AS FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H M M AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>040-046-047. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ005>008- 013>020-024>032-035>040-046-047. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ009>011. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ033-034. OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OHZ075-076-085>087. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067- 075-076-083>087. KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ105. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ101>103. VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV NEAR TERM...JMV/SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...SL

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