Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 010212 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 957 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A DISTURBANCE MONDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS. WEAK FLOW TUESDAY...SOME DRIER AIR SEEPS INTO OHIO RIVER VALLEY.. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
10 PM UPDATE. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE REFIRED ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWESTERN WV THIS EVENING. THIS CONVECTION/DISTURBANCE WILL WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WV. HAVE RAISED POPS MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN WV TIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MODELS SHOWING A SLOWING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL SLIDE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MOST OF THE UPPER AIR SUPPORT TONIGHT STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO RELY MORE ON DIURNAL CONVECTION AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AS FOCUSING MECHANISMS. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A DISTURBANCE PROVIDING SOME LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY...SO WILL INCREASE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES ITS BEST TO SLIP OUT OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT PROBABLY ENDS UP HANGING UP IN THE MTNS. THUS...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE...PREDOMINATELY E OF I79 AND DIURNALLY ENHANCED. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH PROGRESSION OF CUTOFF UPPER LOW...INITIALLY OVER DEEP S. KEPT SOME MAINLY DIURNAL POPS IN THRU THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
00Z MONDAY THRU 00Z TUESDAY... COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL WV. VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBY BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z...EXCEPT LIFR IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS. BECOMING MVFR BY 14Z MOST PLACES...EXCEPT LINGERING IFR HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS TIL 16Z. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE RIDING OVER THE FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE AND COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MONDAY...MAINLY SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...AND KEEP MVFR CEILINGS THRU MUCH OF REMAINING PERIOD. POSSIBLE IFR AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN THE SHOWERS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN LOWERING TO IFR RESTRICTIONS IN THE LOW LANDS LATER TONIGHT. .AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING NEARER THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTH.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30 NEAR TERM...RPY/JMV SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...JMV

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.