Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KRLX 081954
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
254 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016
Much colder weather through Saturday. A low pressure system
crosses Sunday night and Monday. A cold front crosses toward
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM Thursday...
Brief sfc high pressure remains in control this evening with VFR
conditions. Models suggest strong cold advection tonight. This,
together with radiational cooling where it clears will produce
temperatures from the low 20s lowlands to the single digits for
elevations higher than 3000 feet.
Winds turn northwest to set up upslope snow showers mainly over
elevations greater than 3kft.
Used a blend of all models for temperatures through the period.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 PM Thursday...
Flurries and snow showers should be confined to the northern
mountains Friday night with a lingering strato/stratocu deck
holding firm elsewhere. This should keep overnight lows up a bit
from what MOS guidance is suggesting...though still quite cold.
The stratocu will erode from southwest to northeast on Saturday
with sunshine becoming more prevalent across the region. Temps
will still be cold though, with only a slight improvement from
Attention then turns to Sunday, where models are beginning to
converge on a synoptic solution regarding the next system. A
surface low will eject out of the Southern Plains Sunday with a
developing warm front extending pretty far to the northeast, into
the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, an upper level impulse zipping through
the increasing zonal flow will help to increase the isentropic
lift across the Ohio Valley in proximity to the warm front. Where
this warm front sets up will ultimately determine the extent of
wintry precip over the area. There is some consensus on this
staying just north of the area, perhaps clipping portions of
southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia zones with some light
snow later Sunday before turning to rain overnight into Monday. As
such have some minor accumulations coded up for those locales.
This is still a low confidence forecast despite an emerging
consensus, primarily due to how close the warm front will be and
the extent of WAA from the south.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 250 PM Thursday...
The extended was primarily populated with the Superblend given the
volatility amongst the global models and ensembles. Overall, a
reload of arctic air for the latter half of the work week.
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 115 PM Thursday...
A dry cold front passing just north of the area will bring colder
and gusty winds behind it. Satellite images show a large cloud
deck of MVFR ceilings about 2200 feet moving east in the cold
air. These clouds will likely move across our northern sections
through tonight. Meanwhile, an area of mostly clear skies will
prevail over the rest of the area.
Those low level clouds will be squeezed by the northeast mountains
to produce up to two inches of snow through Friday.
West gusty flow could remain gusty mainly higher elevations.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and height of MVFR stratocu may vary
tonight. Gusty winds will vary this afternoon and tonight, and may
be stronger than forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M L M L M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L L M L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H M M M M L L
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in snow showers into Friday in the mountains,
especially across the higher windward terrain.