Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 290618 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 200 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE AND CONVECTION INCREASES SUNDAY AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM NW.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1015PM UPDATE... WILL WATCH THE VORT MAX OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR A POTENTIAL FOCUS OF CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA WAS TRIMMED OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FORWARD...WESTERN ZONES WILL KEEP THEM INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A VERY WARM AND HUMID ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH HIGH SFC BASED CAPE AND LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND NEAR CALM FLOW. A SHORT WAVE SHOWS SIGNS OF ROTATION IN VIS SATELLITE IMAGES WITH CENTER ACROSS THE TN AND CENTRAL KY BORDER. MODELS NOT DETECTING THIS FEATURE MUCH. THE NAM HAVE SOME WEAK VORTICITY MAXES MOVING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGES SHOW AND AREA OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST...EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. EXPECT THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN TO REACH EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF WV AROUND 22Z...SPREADING ACROSS HALF OF OUR CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE SUNSET. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THEY ARE SHORT LIFE STORMS. ANOTHER AREAS THAT COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS ARE THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ANY STRONG OR MODERATE CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOST OF HEATING. LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WV...SOUTHWEST VA...SOUTHEAST OH AND NORTHEAST KY. FOR FRIDAY...STARTING DRY IN THE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE NAM MODEL. MODELS NOT KEYING ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...WITH THE LACK OF FORCING...EXPECT AFTERNOON PULSE TYPE CONVECTION. CODED CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS AND LIKELY POPS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. WITH PWATS THAT HIGH...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS LOWS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THE MAIN FEATURE TO TRACK IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY PARK THE BRAKES SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION AS WE REMAIN ON THE W EDGE OF A RESILIENT UPPER RIDGE. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING WHERE THIS BOUNDARY ENDS UP. OVERALL THOUGH...PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY AND A DAMPENING S/W TROF. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA IN THE FCST. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK IN TEMPS AND A DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HARD TO GRASP ONTO ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND RUN WITH IT. THE WEAK STEERING FLOW VEERS FROM S DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME TO SSW AFTER 18Z TODAY. HAVE MID DECK AT 8 TO 10 THSD FT BKN SPREADING N 06Z TO 12Z. POSSIBIOITY OF A SHOWER IN SOUTHEAST OHIO. THINKING CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO REACH CKB TO EKN CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. INCLUDED SOME LOCAL IFR IN VALLEY FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS 08Z TO 11Z THIS MORNING. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SSE INTO THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SHOULD CAUSE ONE RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN CONVECTION...WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY COULD CAUSE ANY RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES. BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A STORM EVEN FROM CRW TO CKB CORRIDOR. CU FORMS AT 2 TO 4 THSD FT AGL 14Z TO 15Z...THEN MOSTLY 3 TO 4 THSD FT CEILINGS AFTER 16Z. AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 4 THSD FT AGL WITH LAYERS ABOVE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS 06Z TO 11Z COULD VARY FROM FORECAST. VSBY WOULD DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.. .AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IFR LINGERING MONDAY IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NEAR FRONT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ/26 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...KTB/26

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.