Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 171828 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 125 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS. DESPITE A PATTERN SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LEADS TO MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY TOO. WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR. MID LEVEL TROF AXIS APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY. AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... BEFORE THE ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND...OF WHICH LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THAT FORECAST...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THESE WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT NO PRECIP ADDED AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE DISTURBANCES WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT ECMWF IS DEEPER...AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...THUS RESULTING IN A COLDER SOLUTION. DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUN PANS OUT...COULD SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX...AS WITH THE GFS SOLUN...OR A MAINLY SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS LOWLANDS...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUN. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS HPC...WHICH TENDS TO FAVOR WARMER SOLUN. THUS...EXPECTING A WINTRY MIX TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY...THEN BACK TO SNOW OR A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN TOWARDS MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SE-S OF CRW THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAKES CEILING FORECAST DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT WITH THE WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT STILL IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY. IT MAY TURN OUT TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN FORECAST FOR PLACES LIKE CRW AND BKW. COULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT SOME MVFR IN FOG IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS...IF THOSE THINNING LOW CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO DRY UP ON THURSDAY...MID DECK CLOUDS AT 8 TO 10 THSD FT PSBL. MAY BE SOME RADAR RETURNS FROM THE MID DECK BY 18Z BUT DO NOT THINK ANY PCPN REACHES THE GROUND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLEARING COULD OCCUR THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H M H M H H M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...KTB

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