Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 031507 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1107 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AREA TONIGHT...THEN TO OUR EAST ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY-MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 11 AM UPDATE... BAGGY SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVING THRU KY AS OF 15Z. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO HAVE NUDGED A HAIR N OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HRS...NOW A BIT N OF I64 CORRIDOR. RLX VAD VERIFIES THIS WITH A SSW LLVL FLOW. BAND OF SHRA ALONG THE FRONT HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED AS THEY WORKED INTO THE N LOWLANDS AND SE OH...THUS MUCH OF S HALF OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN A LULL. EXPECT THIS AREA TO FILL BACK IN THIS AFTN AS SHRA../PERHAPS A FEW BOOMERS AS WELL/ DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. PWATS WILL RISE TO NEAR 2 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SO...DESPITE THE BEST DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION REMAINING OVER TN VALLEY...THINK EFFICIENT DOWNPOURS TILL A GOOD BET IN THIS LOW FLOW ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH...THE WATCH CONTINUES FOR S HALF OF THE AREA...WHICH IS THE WETTEST BY FAR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... SLOW MOVING SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DRIFTING BACK INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THAT WILL STRENGTHEN SOME TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FARTHER WEST AND NORTH WITH THE PRECIPITATION INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT FAIRLY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WITH WEAK FLOW. DUE TO THIS...ADDED A TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE OHIO AND CENTRAL WV. DOWNPOURS ARE JUST AS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOT IN PLACE...BUT THIS AREA HAS HAD SOME TIME TO DRY OUT SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT RAIN. WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED ISSUES SHOULD A SLOW MOVING CELL OR REPETITIVE CELLS CROSS A SPECIFIC AREA. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING A DRY SLOT OF SORTS MOVING INTO THE WV COAL FIELDS TODAY. NOT SURE THE LOW WILL GET SPUN UP ENOUGH TO PULL IN ENOUGH DRY AIR TO BE A TRUE DRY SLOT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BIT SPOTTIER COVERAGE OR LESS INTENSE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HERE. DID TRY TO SHOW A BIT LOWER POPS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH STILL HAVE LIKELY NUMBERS. AS THE LOW HEAD TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY TRY TO WORK IN FROM THE NW. WHILE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY COME TO AN END ACROSS THE WEST...THINK LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES...WHICH DID NOT MAKE ANY HUGE SWINGS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A BIT LEERY/SKEPTICAL OF THE 00Z NAM PUSHING THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY SE ON SATURDAY AND EVEN KEEPING OUR EASTERN SLOPES DRY SUNDAY. WILL TREND TOWARD A SLOWER DRYING TREND IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES INDEPENDENCE DAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW CLOUDS TRY TO BREAK UP. YET...WAS STILL FASTER IN REMOVING POPS SATURDAY IN OUR MID OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES...INCLUDING ATHENS...MARIETTA...AND PARKERSBURG...THEN OUR PREVIOUS THINKING. ANY CHANCES OF THUNDER SATURDAY SHOULD RESTRICTED TO MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON EAST. WITH DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...TRIED TO LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. IN THE GRADIENT OR TRANSITION ZONE...INCLUDED FOG FORMING CKB-EKN TO CRW VCNTY OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK STEERING FLOW ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A WEAK 500 MB LOW POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO WILL HOLD ONTO POPS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY SNOWSHOE...BECKLEY ON SW TOWARD GRUNDY. AT LEAST THE PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE LOWERING DURING THE SHORT TERM...COMPARED TO THE CURRENT NEAR TERM. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY...A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD. WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... DENSE FOG DID NOT REALLY FORM AS INITIALLY THOUGHT...MAINLY DUE TO SOME PUFFS OF WINDS AND THICKER CLOUDS. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT MVFR TO LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY IN RAIN...STORMS AND OR LOW STRATUS. AS RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...WILL LIKELY BE LEFT WITH LOW STRATUS MIXED WITH FOG LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE NE TO E...WITH SW WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF DOWNPOURS AND STORM TODAY MAY VARY. SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN QUESTION TONIGHT. AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT. && WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>008-013>016- 024>027-033>037. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ083-086-087. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>008- 013>016-024>027-033>037. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ083-086- 087. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103- 105. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ/30 SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...MZ

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