Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KRLX 240923
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
523 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
No surface fronts eager to approach. Ridging aloft begins today with
its axis shifting to our east Wednesday. Weak disturbances aloft
dent ridge Wednesday into Thursday. Ridge stronger Friday/Saturday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper level low to the east will finally lift out of the mid
Atlantic towards the Canadian Maritimes...and already have seen the
exit of the cloud cover from the counterclockwise flow aloft.
Expecting brief ridging in its place over the Ohio Valley before the
flow turns west southwesterly aloft...but that should keep the cloud
cover to a minimum today and tonight...with an increase in
Not much surface moisture advection to be seen at this point...with
dewpoints still peaking out in the low to mid 50s over the lowlands.
This will help to allow one last night of lowland low temperatures
in the 50s tonight...which will be gradually increasing into the
middle and end of the week as we transition to a more late
spring/early summer type pattern.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Ridging in the mid and upper levels throughout. With its
axis just to our east...weak disturbances try to dent the ridge
Wednesday into Thursday morning...before rebuilding late Thursday
Overall...the trend was to lower our already meager pops for showers
and thunderstorms with the weak disturbances. Was even slower
introducing the 20 and 30 pops from the wsw on Wednesday with the
initial weakening disturbance aloft. Was not too keen on thunder
chances with that initial disturbance on Wednesday...but kept a
slight chance in the tri state Hts vcnty.
Best chance for showers appears to be our northwest counties
overnight Wednesday night into Thursday...but still...we have
pops no higher than 40 percent at this time.
By Friday...you can forget about looking west. Main interest will
be drawn to our southeast. The gfs solution was the first to
indicate interesting features off the southeast coast Friday into
Saturday...and it continues to be fairly consistent through its 00z
run. Ecmwf recently has trended wetter there.
Close call for Friday...but better chance on Saturday...for some 90
degree maximum temperatures in the southern and western river
valleys. Considering our recent wet weather and green
vegetation/canopy...we kept the 90 deg maximum temperature at bay on
Friday. A southeast wind flow here may help with a 90 deg maximum
temperature in the southern river valleys on Saturday. That same
flow on Saturday may prevent the southern WV plateau temperature
from rising above that observed on Friday.
So the main theme is the summer preview...good timing for the
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The Memorial Day weekend will feature summer like weather,
especially in comparison with the weather of late. Upper level
ridging continues to build during the beginning of the period, and
then breaks down a bit near the end of the period. The area
remains in what will have become a very warm and humid air mass by
then, and the forecast portrays afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms throughout, only a slight chance Friday and
Saturday given the ridging, and then a chance Sunday and Monday
given the breaking down of the ridge.
The GFS actually seems to portray a tropical, or at least
subtropical, system coming our way early next week from the
Temperatures looked reasonable in this summer pattern in light of
the latest guidance, save for some upward adjustments on highs.
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Under mainly clear conditions...expecting some valley fog to
develop tonight. Overall...the atmosphere is drier...so think the
extent of the fog will be limited...and the guidance largely shows
this. But have some confidence issues at places like CRW and CKB
tonight...and EKN observations are already bouncing between LIFR
Fog lifts after 12Z. VFR through 03Z Wednesday. Will need to
assess valley fog potential again tonight...but looks to be less
of an issue as of right now. Surface flow generally westerly less
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium for the remainder of tonight. High
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog development and dissipation may
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 05/24/16
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M L L L M H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.
The observed river reading for Charleston on the Kanawha River has
not been available the past few days. This is the river forecast
point at the South Side Bridge...not Old Lock Six. Our NWS
hydrologist is looking into the problem.