Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 301805 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 205 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS SOUTHEAST...BRUSHES AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 130 PM UPDATE... SHOWERS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES AT THIS TIME. THESE ARE PART OF THE LARGER LINE OF SHRA TO THE NORTH ACROSS WESTERN PA AND NW OHIO. WHILE THAT PORTION OF THE LINE IS MOVING EAST QUICKER...THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LINE AFFECTING OUR AREA IS SLOWER AS TO BE EXPECTED. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. MAY BE MORE REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS SE OHIO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 1030 AM UPDATE... FIRST LINE OF CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY NEARING PERRY COUNTY AT THIS TIME. RAMPED UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS NEAR OUR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA BORDER FROM PERRY COUNTY OVER TOWARDS MORGAN AND WASH COUNTIES IN OHIO FOR THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AS IT QUICKLY MOVES EAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... PATCHES OF CLOUDS STILL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT 07Z...OTHERWISE VALLEY FOG PREVAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MID/UPPER TROF OVER LAKE HURON AND MICHIGAN DROPPING SOUTHEAST. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WAS APPROACHING TOL AND STILL NORTH OF IND. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THE MAIN COOLING ALOFT TODAY WILL BE NORTH OF OUR CWA. FOR EXAMPLE...00Z NAM HAS 500 MB TEMP AT PBZ COOLING ABOUT 5C TODAY...WHILE CKB ONLY ABOUT A DEG C. SO TIMING THE POPS...AND HOW FAR SOUTH TO MENTION PCPN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IS ONE CHALLENGE. AFTER DIGESTING THE MODELS...SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS HTS-CRW VCNTY FOR THIS EVENING. THIS IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN MOST 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS. FURTHER NNE...HAVE POPS MAXING OUT AROUND 40 TO 50 PCT FOR N CNTRL WV FROM 21Z TODAY TO 01Z WEDNESDAY. DRY AIR SOUTH OF THAT DISTURBANCE FOR TODAY. RAP SOLUTION TRIES TO EVEN LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S. MAYBE ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN LIKE BKW...BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS. MAIN PUSH BEHIND FRONT IS INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...BEFORE 925 MB WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO EAST OR DIMINISH TO CALM. THINKING LOW STRATUS WILL FORM TONIGHT IN SE OHIO BEHIND FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH IN THE COAL FIELDS OF WV...WAS THINKING JUST THE USUAL DIURNAL LATE NIGHT FOG. FURTHER NORTH...LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HINDER OR DELAY THE FOG FORMATION AROUND CKB AND EKN. HTS-CRW CORRIDOR IS A TOUGH CALL BETWEEN ALL 3 FOR LATE TONIGHT...PATCHES OF CLOUDS LINGERING OVERNIGHT...STRATUS FORMATION...OR SURFACE BASED FOG FORMING. OVERALL KEPT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GFS MOS GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE HEADING EAST OUT TO SEA TO START THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...ANTICIPATE LOTS OF LOW STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY BREAKING UP THROUGH THE DAY. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE DO NOT EXPECT THESE CLOUDS. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...ALSO LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SEVERAL DEGREES IN SE OHIO. BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED MET INTO PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE A LITTLE TRAILING VORT MAX COMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSES THURSDAY WITH A WARMER...SUNNY DAY. AGAIN BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS...BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... L/W TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD. RAIN IS MOST LIKELY FRI AS LEAD SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH CROSSES JUST OUT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS DRIVEN BY MID STREAM S/W PIVOTING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRI...DRIVING THE SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG FLOW...FORCING...LAST MINUTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LATE DAY TIMING SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE LEAD SRN STREAM S/W...WHICH BRINGS CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS EARLIER IN THE DAY. A HIGH OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT INITIALLY...BRINGING ABOUT A FAIR...COOL WEEKEND. A REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC FRONT CROSS MON...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND THEN EVEN COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. BLENDED IN GFS BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRI AND THEN MAINLY WPC FOR LOWS AND HIGHS BEYOND THAT...MOST CHANGES TO LOWER VALUES BUT NOT BY MUCH. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BEING EXPERIENCED THIS AFTERNOON. A LINE OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY PUSHING SLOWLY ACROSS SE OHIO INTO THE PANHANDLE OF WV SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF US HWY 50. BRIEF MVFR/IFR VIS IS POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH A HEAVIER SHOWER BUT AGAIN...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREVALENT OTHERWISE. EXPECT LOWER MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO 00Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY...BEHIND THE FRONT CURRENTLY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST. A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS MAINLY FOR THE CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS WITH EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH IT PROGRESSES...WITH LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG POSSIBLE IN THIS GENERAL AREA. THINKING MORE DIURNAL FOG WILL FORM ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS BTWN 15Z-18Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY BE MORE THAN FORECAST IN THE PKB-CKB-EKN VCNTY. ARRIVAL OF LOWER STRATUS CEILING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB MAY BE FASTER THAN FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...KTB/50 SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...50

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.