Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 221734 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 134 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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CLOUDS BREAKING UP TODAY BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS WAY EAST. PREFRONTAL CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THESE SHOWERS DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRODUCING SOME THUNDER BUT WITH LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING TO CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. THE FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING PUTTING AN END TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR MOST...WITH THE MOUNTAINS HOLDING ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL MORNING. CAA TONIGHT WILL DROP OUR TEMPERATURES A BIT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS COULD BE FAIRLY HIGH...UP IN THE 40S AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND 15 TO 20 KTS ALONG THE LOWLANDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME FROST OVERNIGHT IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS...HOWEVER...KEEPING THAT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR THE MOMENT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...WENT A BIT BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. GOOD RADIATION CONDITIONS FOR PART OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN SOME CLOUDS FROM THE WARM FRONT ARRIVE...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST. WILL GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE IN THE NORTH WHERE MODEL DEW POINTS AND GOOD RADIATION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. MAY NEED TO HOIST A FREEZE WATCH EVENTUALLY...BUT WITH WARM FRONT CLOUDS APPROACHING...A BIT IFFY RIGHT NOW. IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE WARM FRONTAL CLOUDS ARE MOST LIKELY...WILL GO TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS. THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON THURSDAY...BUT MODELS INDICATING THAT DRY LOWER LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE DRY FOR NOW...BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME SPRINKLES. ECMWF AND GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR ON COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH NAM HAVING JUST SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING. WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS...WILL TIGHTEN POP GRADIENT CONSIDERABLY...AND REMOVE POPS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS...ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. BOTH MODELS HAVE SOME CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHING SOUTHEAST OH BY 09Z FRIDAY. SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS WITH FRIDAYS COLD FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN SECTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS TIMING IS NOT DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT HPC DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ENDING BY LATE EVENING. SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE VFR...HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG RIDGE TOPS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES MAY SHOW UP WITH FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHRA. EXTENT OF POST FRONTAL STRATUS IN QUESTION TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/LS NEAR TERM...LS SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...LS

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