Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 250627 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 227 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...AND UPPER RIDGE...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CREATE RATHER SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS TODAY. SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE TODAY WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM...HUMID...UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT AREAS IN WV. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY MOIST...WITH PWS PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTERNOON. SOME WANE IN ACTIVITY TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...BUT WILL REVAMP AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG MONDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN DURING THE DAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN AS 5H RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS LEAVES SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WITH A TRANSITION TO A WARM MOIST AIRMASS AS FLOW OPENS UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WILL SEE A GRADUAL UPSWING IN CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH THE SW FLOW...WITH ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH GENERALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE...WILL CARRY CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHT HOURS...AS WAS IN INHERITED FORECAST. NO REAL CHANGES IN THE OFFING FOR FCST TEMPERATURE TRENDS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO 5H RIDGE...HELPING TO KNOCK IT DOWN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX...THIS GENERALLY MEANS A WARM AND WET SCENARIO...WITH A DIRTY RIDGE...BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE...THAT IS EVEN MORE WASHED OUT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH CARRIES GREATER AND MORE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...MAINLY AFTER 18-20Z...AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...EASTERN KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES. ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. BULK OF CONVECTION WILL WANE GENERALLY AFTER 01Z. FOG MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW NIGHT TOWARDS END OF TAF PERIOD...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED DURING THE DAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. .AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...SL

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