Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 010231 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1031 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND...AND THEN PULLS OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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1030 PM UPDATE... AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR TWO HAS POPPED UP OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO IN THE PAST HOUR AND HAVE THUS CODED UP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FOR A FEW HOURS. STILL...EXPECT THIS TO WIND DOWN BY THE 05Z TIME FRAME IF NOT SOONER. ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT WITH HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 730 PM UPDATE... THE FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED AS EXPECTED. OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK...BUT ADJUSTED POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS/THINKING...AS SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES BRUSH THE VA COUNTIES NORTHEASTWARD UP TOWARDS THE RALEIGH COUNTY AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... NOTED A FEW SHOWERS STARTING TO POP UP OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...WHERE THE CU FIELD IS MOST STOUT. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...DYING OFF EARLY RELATIVE TO SUNSET. OTHERWISE MAIN FEATURE THIS PD IS A PAIR OF SRN STREAM S/W FEATURES THAT MOVE NE ACROSS AN EVER INCREASING SE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRI. WV IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SLOT BETWEEN NRN AND SRN STREAMS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING ALREADY SHIFTING NWD...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO ENCROACH UPON SW VA AND SRN WV. THIS SHIFT CORRESPONDS WITH A RISING HEIGHT FIELD AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW JUST S OF HUDSON BAY FILLS...AND THE L/W TROUGH BEGINS TO LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER THE ERN CONUS. HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER THE SERN FRINGES OF THE CST AREA BY DAWN FRI...AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY FRI...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OVER THE LOWLANDS FRI AFTERNOON. THE WWD EXPANSION OF COVERAGE FRI AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...UNDER THE CLOUD SHIELD...THE STABILITY ACTUALLY INCREASES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SO THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER THERE ACTUALLY WANES. THE LAST OF THE S/W/S STARTS TO PULL AWAY TO THE E LATE FRI AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT LOOKED LIKE A REASONABLY COMPROMISE OF THE LATEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE WHILE AN ALL BLEND SEEMED TO PROVIDE A CONSISTENT SOLN FOR HIGHS FRI.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP BULK OF PRECIPITATION...DYNAMICS TO EAST OF MOUNTAINS...AND CONTINUED TO PLAY THE TREND OF HIGHER POPS ACROSS MOUNTAINS...WITH CHANCE ACROSS LOWLANDS. WITH AN OVERALL LIGHT FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED...SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING. THE HIGHER PW WILL EXIST TO THE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...SO NO MAJOR WATER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER...DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOW NATURE OF STORMS...REPETITIVE SLOWER MOVERS OVER ANY GIVEN AREA COULD CAUSE SWOLLEN CREEKS AND STREAMS AND PERHAPS URBAN WATER ISSUES. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIG SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DRIER WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM...WHICH WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL FINALLY RISE TO NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A HEAVIER SHOWER TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BKW MAY IMPACT THAT TERMINAL IN THE NEXT HOUR WITH PERHAPS MVFR VIS. CIGS WILL LOWER ON SE FLOW TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WITH MVFR STRATOCU GETTING AS FAR NW AS BKW BY DAWN FRI AND THEN LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM NEAR DAWN FRI THROUGH AROUND THE 18Z TIME FRAME...BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 18Z. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER WEST BY 18Z FRI. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING THE CONVECTION...SHOULD PREVENT A REPEAT OF THE DENSE VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...WITH VSBYS NO WORSE THAN MVFR EXPECTED. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG OR REDUCED VSBYS LATE OVERNIGHT / EARLY FRI MORNING MAY VARY FROM THE MVFR CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNCERTAINTY OF EFFECTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES FRI MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 08/01/14 UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM/50 SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...50

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