Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 090917 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 517 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AIR TO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.. ANOTHER SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF OUR CWA...SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST AS INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE NORTHEAST. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BY EARLY MORNING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMA CROSSING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOISTURE HAS BECOME SHALLOW...DECREASING THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PCPN ACTIVITY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO STABILIZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES ALOFT. EXPECTING DIURNAL LOW CUMULUS TODAY THAT MAY LOOK ROBUST AT TIMES...BUT VERY LIMITED IN THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE ABOVE THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED SHOWERS...OR A BRIEF STORM OR TWO...CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY/EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST... LEAVING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LEAVES AREA UNDER GENERALLY DRY PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS AGREE IN KEEPING BULK OF MOISTURE EAST OF THE CWA WHERE SOME ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP. INTRODUCED SOME ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE FAR EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES...USING A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED DATA AND PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND. OF COURSE...THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK AND ESPECIALLY THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING OUR AREA MAINLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH INCREASING HEAT...HUMIDITY AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LEAVES SATURDAY AS A TRANSITION DAY WITH DRY WEATHER...BUT HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING TO INCREASE AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE EAST SECTIONS. EXPECT FRONT TO EXIT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FRONT LIKE FEATURE CROSSES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF LOW VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. PERIODS OF IFR PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MAINLY OVER SHELTERED VALLEYS AND OVER AREAS THAT CLEAR AND RECEIVED ANTECEDENT PCPN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENSION OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 07/09/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L M M M H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H M M H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M L L L L H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H M M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/ARJ NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...ARJ

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