Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 231041 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 641 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure shifts east today. Increasingly warmer and more humid air as the week progresses...before the next cold front approaches later in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 630 am Tuesday. No changes at all. As of 3 AM Tuesday... Even though the surface high pressure center currently over the Ohio Valley shifts east today...ridging at the surface and aloft will continue to dominate through tonight with tranquil weather. Except for the NAM which is typically overly aggressive with low level moisture...most models agree the area of clouds east of the mountains will basically stay east and tend to dissipate as the day goes on...as low level winds veer into the south and southwest. So after early morning dense river valley fog under this high pressure...abundant sunshine will boost temperatures into the 80s this afternoon with light southerly winds. For tonight...models indicate dry weather with high pressure will still hang on. Expect some more river valley fog early Wednesday morning...but less than this morning as deeper southerly flow does bring in some moisture. However...clouds with this surge of moisture will mostly wait til just after this period. Lows tonight will be a bit milder compared to early this morning. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 335 AM Tuesday... Warm frontal boundary will move northeast through area Wednesday...with warmer temperatures...and a return of higher humidity. A stray shower or thunderstorm will be possible Wednesday afternoon in the increasingly unstable atmosphere. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase on Thursday as an upper disturbance moves through the region...followed by another Thursday night...across the Great Lakes region...keeping a slight chance of pops across the north. Cold frontal boundary will approach the region on Friday...with showers and thunderstorms developing. Some drier air could filter in across the north late Friday...but this will depend on timing...and how far south the frontal boundary actually treks. At this point...it doesnt look like there will be a significant break in the humidity and heat over the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday... A cold front approaches Friday increasing the chance for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Still quite a bit of uncertainty on when the front arrives, so not much confidence in pinpointing a time, but for now, early Friday looks like the best bet. GFS starts to bring another front through early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 630 AM Tuesday... 12Z Tuesday thru 12Z Wednesday... Calm winds and clear skies early this morning will result in widespread river and valley LIFR fog til 13Z...affecting all major TAF sites except BKW. Conditions will rapidly improve 13z- 14z to VFR mostly clear with light southerly winds. Some scattered cumulus mostly in the mountains during the afternoon. After 00Z VFR mostly clear with near calm winds...except in higher elevations where winds may still be light southerly. Patchy MVFR/IFR fog after 06z...mainly in sheltered mountain valleys including EKN. Higher clouds may begin to move into western portions of area late tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of fog may vary early this morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY L M L L H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L M M H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... Dense morning valley fog possible through mid week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/SL NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...JMV

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