Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KRLX 261732
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1232 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017
High pressure through tonight. Warmer with upper level
disturbances and rain showers next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 950 AM Sunday...
Previous forecast remains on track. No changes necessary attm.
As of 555 AM Sunday...
Sky grids received some attention this morning with the quicker
clearing along the Ohio River. Light snow continues in the
As of 225 AM Sunday...
Zonal flow with surface high pressure settles in for the near
term, turning slightly southwesterly with vorticity maxima towards
12Z Monday, and warm frontal influences at the surface.
Significant weather through 00Z is limited to the eroding
stratocumulus deck, lastly exiting the northeast zones and near
normal temperatures across the area. After 00Z, have to
introduce slight chance POPs back into the fold with the
overrunning over the western zones. Lower confidence here with
actual measurable precipitation, and may need to use sprinkles
instead through 12Z Sunday in a future forecast.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Sunday...
This period will see a warmer and increasingly unsettled
pattern. A series of upper disturbances will lift out of the
southwestern U.S. and across the Ohio Valley in a broad
southwest flow aloft. A weak warm front will lift north Monday,
heralding the warmer air. QPF amounts through Tuesday look to
be light with rather weak upper disturbances and lack of
significant low level forcing. However, an amplifying upper
trough sweeps southeastward across the Ohio Valley Wednesday
and Wednesday night, driving a strong cold front through our
area. Models are in good agreement with this feature, and will
likely be accompanied by widespread showers with a chance for
thunderstorms. Warmest day will be Wednesday, in the 70s prior
to the arrival of showers. Much colder air will move in behind
the front Wednesday night, with much of the precipitation
shutting down in the low lands. Precip may end later Wednesday
night as high elevation mountain snow showers with little
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 250 AM Sunday...
Models, even at this late in the forecast period, have a clipper
type system diving southeastward across the Ohio valley
Thursday night into Friday in northwest flow aloft behind the
upper trough. The current track of the system would bring
wintry precip to mainly the northern half of the area.
Thereafter, Canadian high pressure will settle in for the
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 1225 PM Sunday...
Widespread VFR conditions will continue through tonight as a
sfc high pressure remains in control through tonight. Winds will
gust up to 21 knots at some sites. Flow becomes light and
variable tonight continuing light and variable Monday.
H500 charts show a series of mid level short waves passing
through on Monday. This could bring some chances for PCPN mainly
southeast OH and portions of northern WV Monday. Some showers
could bring brief periods of IFR under moderate rain.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.
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