Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 011839 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 139 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE AREA AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE THE ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN DROPPED...WITH THE EXCEPTION ON POCAHONTAS COUNTY IN THE CAD. THIS EXPIRES AT 7 PM BY WHICH TIME THE LAST OF THE COLD AIR SHOULD FINALLY BE ERADICATED. THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE CUT OFF FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. MODELS DO SUGGEST ONE LAST W-E DAGGER OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...AS ONE LAST TRAILING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. CONSIDERED EXTENDING THE PERRY-MORGAN ADVISORY FOR THIS BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE A FREEZING RAIN THREAT AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE UPSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT INTO MON WITH UP TO AN INCH OR SO THERE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND MON...A MORNING CU PROCESS IN THE MORNING...MIXING UP INTO A STRATOCU DECK THAT SHOULD START TO BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD CLEAR FURTHER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AT THE END. USED HRRR AND THEN NAM/MET FOR TEMPS...A BIT SHARPER BAROCLINIC ZONE TONIGHT AND A BIT LOWER ON HIGHS MON COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS WITH TEMPERATURES NOT RISING MUCH UNTIL AFTER 15Z.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ATTENTION TURNS TO WHAT HAS BECOME A WELL ADVERTISED WET SYSTEM SLATED FOR MID WEEK. LIKE HPC...STILL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE SCENARIO GIVEN POSITIVE TILT TO UPPER TROF HANGING BACK...OWING TO LESS PROGRESSION OF SFC FLOW AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PARALLEL TO SFC FRONT. PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TUESDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS SE OH. THERE MAY BE A VERY BRIEF MIX AT THE ONSET...BUT THIS IS PRIMARILY A RAIN MAKER ON TUESDAY. TRIED TO KEEP HIGH POPS CONFINED TO SE OH AND N WV AS REMAINDER OF AREA REMAINS IN THE MORE SHOWERY WARM SECTOR. LLJ INCREASES TO NEAR 70 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT OUT OF SW WITH THE OVERALL FLOW TRYING TO BECOME PARALLEL TO THE SFC COLD FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY ON APPROACH. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE POOLED ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH PWATS SURGING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ON IMPRESSIVE THETA E ADVECTION. THE FIRST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS SE OH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SLOW SHIFTING SE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS SE. IT IS AT THIS POINT MODELS DIVERGE WITH GFS CONTINUING TO BE ON THE PROGRESSIVE SIDE. THE NEW ECMWF IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE BUT DOES ENTRAIN MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THIS SYSTEM COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...STILL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE SCENARIO ATTM...WHICH KEEPS THE RAIN GOING ALONG AND E OF THE OH RIVER ON WEDNESDAY. KEPT THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN WX GRIDS. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVG AROUND 2 INCHES AREAWIDE. WILL KEEP HWO WORDING AS IS. AS MENTIONED...THINGS GET TRICKY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF WITH SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AMID COLD AIR INTRUSION. THIS BRINGS A CONCERN THAT STARTS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING TO THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM WITH WINTRY WX. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING EXTENT OF ANY WINTRY WX ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF SUCH ATTM. ON A SIDE NOTE...TEMPS WILL BE WARMING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TO MID 50S LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET ON BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWLANDS AMID BREEZY S FLOW. THESE WARM TEMPS HANG ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A RATHER MILD NIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW RAPID A FALL OF TEMPS TO EXPECT BEHIND THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EARLY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...FOR CONTINUED COOL...BUT DRY CONDITIONS.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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WIDESPREAD MVFR IN MAINLY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION S FLOW OVER THE AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL 6 TERMINALS. VSBYS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT CUTS OFF THE WARM ADVECTION. THIS FRONT ROLLS THROUGH W TO E BETWEEN 3 AND 6Z. MVFR OR WORSE VSBY WILL PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS THERE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CIGS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO CLOSE TO 1KFT...SO IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. MON WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ENDING BY LATE MORNING...AND MORNING CU THAT WILL EVOLVE INTO AN AFTERNOON STRATOCU DECK. THESE CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL RISE...BUT MAY REMAIN BELOW 3KFT...BUT START TO BREAK UP IN THE LOWLANDS IN THE AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. LIGHT S SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT NW BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WILL BECOME MODERATE W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN MODERATE NW FOR MON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: GUIDANCE SHOWS WIDESPREAD IFR TONIGHT. THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR THIS OCCURRING TONIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF L IN THE TABLE BELOW. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H L L L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M L L L L L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H L L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L L L L L AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS SNOW AT THE END WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/SL/30 NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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