Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251833 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 233 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak disturbances within ridge aloft today into Thursday. Ridge stronger Friday/Saturday. Southeast flow may eventually increase shower coverage Sunday into Monday...especially over mountains. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Unsettled weather returns for the near-term period...high pressure at the surface with upper ridge across eastern US...with above normal temperatures...and increasing relative humidity. Several weak upper disturbances will affect the region during period...one this afternoon/evening...increasing chances of showers and storms mainly across far western zones. Thunderstorms will be isolated at best owing to weak instability and cloud cover inhibiting convection. Initial wave will weaken as it crosses area but additional waves expected tonight and tomorrow...which will trigger additional rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms. With lack of strong dynamics no severe storms expected. Tonight will be warmer as dew points and cloud cover increases with upper-level disturbance. Continued above average temperatures with rebounding heights for tomorrow. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Sfc high pressure will extend from the OH Valley east across the Appalachians into the mid Atlantic coast. Upper level ridge is also evident in models suggesting mainly fair weather in the short term. There is no major system affecting the area during this period. However, can expect afternoon convection produced by a combination of diurnal heating, differential heating and occasional vorticity max through at least Saturday. The NAM models show sfc based CAPE exceeding 2000 J/Kg during the afternoon hours on Friday and Saturday with precipitable water around 1.7 inches.The flow becomes southeast Saturday pushing a boundary, evident in GFS H700 Theta-e packed gradient field,north under south southeast flow. This will be a high CAPE, low deep layer shear environment. Coded thunder for CAPE equal and greater than 2000 J/Kg. Some storms can produce heavy downpours conducive to localized water problems. Went mainly with the super blend guidance for temperatures through the period. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Summer like weather is still on tap for the Memorial Day weekend. Upper level ridging holds into Sunday before drifting off the east coast. Have just the slight chance for the late day shower or thunderstorm Saturday, and then a better chance on Sunday as the ridge begins to drift east. As the ridge drift offshore, a weak upper level over the Carolinas this weekend will start meandering to the northwest. This may actually bring a developing tropical or subtropical feature inland. Models generally differ with the track and lose the system under the light upper level flow. Suffice it to say for now that the forecast gets a bit dirtier early next week, with a better chance for late day showers and thunderstorms and a non- negligible chance at night. Either way, the very warm and humid air remains in place through the period, and even beyond. The midnight shift coded 90 for Charleston for Saturday, which may be a touch aggressive, but the pattern and guidance are close enough to give it a chance. Overall, not much disparity between ongoing temperatures and guidance. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions through period with light surface winds. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing after 20Z creating low VFR or isolated MVFR conditions. Bulk of convection decrease after 02Z with loss of heating but will redevelop Thursday after 16Z. Patchy low VFR fog possible sheltered mountain valleys such as at KEKN late tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR in a shower is possible. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...SL

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