Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 240722 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 322 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warmer weather returns with temperatures climbing well above normal this weekend. The next shot at showers arrives Sunday morning. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 150 PM Friday... Warm frontal feature brushes northern zones this morning. Radar indicates a little light rain may make its way into the CWA. Other than that, the area should remain dry and warm as we remain firmly in the warm sector under a high pressure ridge. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 305 AM Friday... With a warm front set up to our north, generally looking at warm temperatures through the short term. Saturday should be mostly dry, although do have some low end POPs creeping into the west by evening. This is tied to a nearly stacked low pressure system moving across the Mississippi River Valley Saturday night and weakening/opening as it crosses the Great Lakes on Sunday. Have fairly high POPs on Sunday as an occluding cold front pushes through. Have POPs decreasing Sunday night as the surface boundary heads NE. But keep some slight chance to low chance POPs going since we maintain a fairly moist flow as another system starts sliding across the Central Plains.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 315 AM Friday... A fairly quick moving surface low and 500mb shortwave trough crosses Monday night into Tuesday with likely POPs. Went mostly dry Wednesday and Wednesday night, with POPs ramping back up Thursday as another surface/500mb low begins to move across the Southern Plains. Temperatures will remain above normal through the period. Wednesday should be the coolest day with some northwest flow resulting in highs fairly close to normal. Stuck very close to a consensus blend through the period for highs and lows.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 210 AM Friday... VFR through the period with mid level moisture from a warm front passing through this morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 03/24/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... Restrictions and low level wind shear are likely with the advance of late Monday cold front. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...JW

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