Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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579 FXUS61 KRLX 082339 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 639 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Much colder weather through Saturday. A low pressure system crosses Sunday night and Monday. A cold front crosses toward midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 640 PM Thursday... Dropped the overnight lows in the mountains a couple degrees, but otherwise, no significant changes to the forecast package this evening. As of 200 PM Thursday... Brief sfc high pressure remains in control this evening with VFR conditions. Models suggest strong cold advection tonight. This, together with radiational cooling where it clears will produce temperatures from the low 20s lowlands to the single digits for elevations higher than 3000 feet. Winds turn northwest to set up upslope snow showers mainly over elevations greater than 3kft. Used a blend of all models for temperatures through the period.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 PM Thursday... Flurries and snow showers should be confined to the northern mountains Friday night with a lingering strato/stratocu deck holding firm elsewhere. This should keep overnight lows up a bit from what MOS guidance is suggesting...though still quite cold. The stratocu will erode from southwest to northeast on Saturday with sunshine becoming more prevalent across the region. Temps will still be cold though, with only a slight improvement from Friday. Attention then turns to Sunday, where models are beginning to converge on a synoptic solution regarding the next system. A surface low will eject out of the Southern Plains Sunday with a developing warm front extending pretty far to the northeast, into the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, an upper level impulse zipping through the increasing zonal flow will help to increase the isentropic lift across the Ohio Valley in proximity to the warm front. Where this warm front sets up will ultimately determine the extent of wintry precip over the area. There is some consensus on this staying just north of the area, perhaps clipping portions of southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia zones with some light snow later Sunday before turning to rain overnight into Monday. As such have some minor accumulations coded up for those locales. This is still a low confidence forecast despite an emerging consensus, primarily due to how close the warm front will be and the extent of WAA from the south. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 250 PM Thursday... The extended was primarily populated with the Superblend given the volatility amongst the global models and ensembles. Overall, a reload of arctic air for the latter half of the work week. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 640 PM Thursday... Lower level stratocumulus starting to fill in over the northern part of West Virginia, but this is a slow process, and the onset is still yielding VFR ceilings. Expect this to gradually change to a 2-3kft deck generally after 03Z Friday or so, with light snow developing over the higher elevations to the northeast, including EKN, and a few flakes also at CKB, but no prevailing at CKB. Wind gusts to continue in the 15-25kt range, gradually subsiding through Friday, although terminals further south will see the winds decrease sooner. Ceilings return to VFR after 16Z Friday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and height of MVFR stratocumulus may vary tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EST 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M L L EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M L L M M L M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H L L M L L M M L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M L H H L L AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... IFR possible in rain developing Sunday into Sunday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ/26 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...26

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