Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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796 FXUS61 KRLX 192353 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 753 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MEMORIAL DAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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NOT REALLY TOO MANY CONCERNS AT THE MOMENT...WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT AND THEN THE BIG QUESTION IS THE EXISTENCE AND/OR EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW...HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE POTENTIAL A BIT DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE AND HINTS OF A DECK OF CLOUDS IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...THOUGH BELIEVE RIVER BEDS MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE BEFORE THE CLOUD DECK FORMS/ARRIVES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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MODELS CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH WED NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND WILL ONLY RESULT IN SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE PICTURE. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE WITH THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH. SO FOR YOUR MEMORIAL DAY, COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS WEST OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING AND THE REST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT...BUT MODELS INDICATE SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRYING TO SNEAK IN WHICH MAY INHIBIT FORMATION. RIVER VALLEYS MAY FORM POCKETS OF IFR...BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT MVFR IN TAFS. THE COLD FRONT HAS LEFT DRY AIR IN ITS WAKE AND THUS THERE SHOULD NOT BE A LOT OF SURFACE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH EXCEPT NEAR AND AROUND RIVERS. I DID PUT A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST IN FOR KEKN DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO RICHER MOISTURE FIELDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE MAY BE MORE MOISTURE THAN FORECAST AND FOG AND STRATUS COULD PRODUCE LIFR CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 05/20/15 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M L L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M M AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... FOG/LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS BKW AND VICINITY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY DUE TO SHOWERS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/JW NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...JW

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