Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 182000 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 300 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... With high pressure passing south of the area, a southwest flow will bring milder air through the weekend, with a warm front passing Saturday. A cold front crosses late Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 PM Thursday... Broad sfc high pressure centered roughly over the lower MS River will have a ridge, extending northeast across TN, KY and WV through Friday. The high pressure center is expected to pass well south of the area through the weekend. Despite of clear skies expected, models show warm advection under southwest to west winds. H850 temperatures will increase just 2C by Friday from minus 2C this afternoon. Lows generally in the teens, compared with the widepsread single digits of early this morning, reflect the ongoing retreat of the arctic air. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 240 PM Thursday... Warm air advection continues with surface ridging into the area to start the weekend. Gradual warming is expected through the weekend ahead of the next storm system. High clouds start streaming in later Saturday, with enough sunshine during the day, especially toward the east, to warm us nicely into th 40`s and 50`s. A warm frontal boundary lifts across the region Sunday with some modest over-riding flow. Overall not expecting a heavy rain threat with this - expect mostly cloudy temperatures and a continuation of the warming trend light rain showers. Depending on timing, i.e. if the warm front lifts before diurnal heating takes over, there could be a wintery mix in the mountains upon precip onset.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 345 PM Thursday... The cold front associated with the aforementioned system skirting across the region moves through Monday into Monday night according to latest model guidance. Expect good moisture with PW around an inch or so, far above the climatological norm. Luckily, this is a progressive system so not expected widespread water issues at this time in spite of heavy rain potential. Will have to keep an eye on rivers for ice jams, however. Expect a Tuesday morning changeover to a wintery mix and snow, expecially across higher terrain. Models at this time don`t show great potential for cold air advection/upslope showers for very long behind the front, but long range models are notoriously poor in modeling these things - so have added in low PoPs Tuesday especially across the north.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1245 PM Thursday... CAVU through the period. High pressure builds overhead to provide clear skies through the period. The GFS and NAM show H850 west southwest winds around 40 knots around 2000 feet. The NAM and RAP13 models suggest Boundary layered winds of 20 to 30 knots overnight. Expecting EKN site to decouple overnight to produce light to calm winds. These conditions could produce low level wind shear at EKN overnight and was included in TAFEKN starting at 05Z. For the rest of the sites, light to gentle flow with occasional gusty winds will reduce the threat for LLWS at other sites. Light southwest surface flow, west to northwest on the ridges, will strengthen and become a bit gusty this afternoon and evening, before becoming light again tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of low level wind shear may vary. Low level wind shear could materialize at other sites if the lower atmosphere decouples. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... None. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...SL/MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...ARJ

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