Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 130607 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 107 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY...AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. A COMPLEX SYSTEM COULD BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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830 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED POP FOR TIMING OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND TRENDS. SNOWFALL WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...SO GENERALLY WENT WITH A WIDESPREAD AVERAGE OF UP TO A HALF INCH FOR THE LOWLANDS...HOWEVER LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOWFALL COULD DROP A QUICK INCH IN SOME PLACES. 6 PM UPDATE... ARCTIC FRONT IS APPROACHING THE REGION AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WILL ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE AND A QUICK INCH OF SNOW IN THESE WILL BE POSSIBLE. PLANNING ON HANDLING THE HEAVIER SQUALLS WITH SPS AS THEY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ITS LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT EAST BY EVENING...WITH ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTH. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLD ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL TRANSITION THE LIGHT SNOW TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE ARCTIC FRONT DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A LINE OF WINDY SNOW SQUALLS WITH THE FRONT...OTHERWISE...MAINLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LEAST IN THE WEST. ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL MOSTLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. NO HEADLINES FOR SNOW...CANCELLED THE SW VA ADVISORY FOR SNOW...BUT WIND CHILLS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THIS PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TERMS OF HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILL...FOCUSING ON THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THEIR FOOTHILLS. IT WILL BE NOTED IN THE ADVISORY THAT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS MAY REACH VALUES OF WARNING CRITERIA. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO DIVE TONIGHT AND RECOVER VERY LITTLE FOR SATURDAY...TRULY IN THE DEEP FREEZE...MADE EVEN WORSE EVERYWHERE BY THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SO EVEN THOUGH WE DO NOT MEET WIND CHILL CRITERIA IN THE LOW LANDS...APPARENT TEMPS WILL NOT BE MUCH ABOVE ZERO DURING SATURDAY. BE PREPARED!
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD AIR BEGINS A SLOW RETREAT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN IN THE SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING...AND GRADUALLY PUSH NORTH AS THE FAR NE CORNER OF A WAVE LIFTS NORTH AS A SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW IS SLOW TO DEEPEN...BUT AS IT IS DEVELOPING AS IT MOVES INTO OUR NEIGHBORHOOD THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON ITS TRACK AND THEREFORE PRECIPITATION TYPES. RIGHT NOW THE EURO KEEPS A SOLID WARM WEDGE IN OVER US LENDING MORE TOWARDS A RAIN SOLUTION WHILE THE GFS AND NAM TREND COLDER WHICH WOULD GIVE US A SNOW SOLUTION. DEFINITELY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR ANY WATCHES AT THE MOMENT. RIGHT NOW...CURRENT FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE THREE WHICH FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE WPC GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD GIVE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ONSET ALMOST AREA WIDE BEFORE SWITCHING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS MAY HAVE A LOCAL MAXIMA IN SNOW SINCE THE COLD AIR LINGERS A LITTLE WHILE LONGER WAITING FOR THE WARM AIR TO ARRIVE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING EARLY NEXT WEEK STORM...AND THUS...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. GFS AND NAM SEEMS TO BE TRENDING COLDER/MORE EASTERLY WITH THE LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A WARMER/MORE WESTERLY TRACK WITH THE SYSTEM. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATH...OF COURSE...CREATES CONUNDRUMS IN THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNT FORECAST. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL...GOOD 40+KT LLJ WILL AID IN HIGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. ONE THING THAT DOES LOOK FAIRLY CERTAIN...IS MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES SHOULD GET DECENT ACCUMULATIONS...WITH LOWLANDS LESS CERTAIN...AS MAY TRANSITION TO A RAIN SNOW MIX OR EVEN ALL RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW...THEN POSSIBLY BACK TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES ARE ALSO QUITE UNCERTAIN...AS DEPENDING ON THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM...THERE MAY BE A SHARP GRADIENT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES COULD SEE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...IF THE STORM TAKES A MORE WESTERLY TRACK...MAY EVEN SEE PERIODS OF A WINTRY MIX INCLUDING PERIODS OF SLEET ACROSS THE AREA PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT. SO ALL IN ALL...STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY...BUT WILL START HIGHLIGHTING THIS SYSTEM IN THE HWO. IN ADDITION...ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS...WILL BE A HEAVY WET SNOW. IN ADDITION TO THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION...EXPECTING QPF OF OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THIS...PARTICULARLY IF QUITE A BIT OF IT FALLS AS RAIN...COULD LEAD TO RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS...AND POTENTIALLY LEAD TO STRONG RISES ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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ARCTIC FRONT NOW CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS AS OF 06Z WITH A BAND OF SQUALLS...TEMPORARILY DROPPING MOUNTAIN TERMINALS INTO IFR VSBY/MVFR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KTS. BEHIND THIS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS INTO MVFR WITH ANY PASSING SHSN WITH MAINLY MVFR SHSN CONTINUING THRU 12Z. GUSTY WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS FOR THE MOUNTAIN TERMINALS. AFTER 12Z...MAINLY SCT/BKN VFR STRATOCU WITH OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN FLURRIES. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH...BUT STILL LOOKING AT 15 TO 20 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO FINALLY SUBSIDE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 02/13/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...TRANSITIONING TO A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR TUESDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ032-035>040- 046-047. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/JW/SL NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK SHORT TERM...TRM/JW LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...30

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