Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 211416 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1016 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A FRONT REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1015 AM UPDATE... ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS TO BETTER REPRESENT THE DYING MCS ENTERING SOUTHEAST OH...AND THE NEXT AREA CURRENTLY OVER IN CROSSING THE OH BORDER. THE LATEST AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHEAST OH AROUND 16Z...AND SPREAD EAST SOUTHEAST TO AFFECT WV THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH...NORTHEAST KY...AND WV THROUGH TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL UPPER WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ONE SUCH WAVE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL WAVES OVER THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH PLENTY OF UPPER AIR SUPPORT IN PLACE DURING THE PERIOD. PW VALUES FRIDAY...PROGGED TO BE AROUND 1.8 INCHES...AND WPC HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WITH PLENTY OF TIME LEFT TO ISSUE ANY WATER HEADLINES...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE ISSUE IN THE HWO. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A DRIER REGIME AS THE UPPER HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE AREA COURTESY OF THE STOUT RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER MS VALLEY. THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT SHOULD STAY W OF THE AREA BUT WILL STILL BE CONTENDING WITH THE MUGGIES WITH TEMPS RUNNING 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DAY AND NIGHT. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MVFR STRATOCU IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD MIX OUT OR AT LEAST HIGHER LATER THIS MORNING. NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ITS NE. ONE SUCH ROUND MOVING INTO S CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA TODAY WITH MVFR AT TIMES LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. TOUGH TO TIME WHEN A HEAVIER DOWNPOUR WILL LOWER CONDITIONS TO IFR FOR A PARTICULAR SITE. THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE E TONIGHT...WITH POST RAIN STRATUS...STRATOCU AND FOG POSSIBLE. CODED UP STRATOCU AND MIST UP N WHERE THE RAIN IS MOST LIKELY LATER TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NE OF THE STILL STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W NEAR DAWN FRI. LIGHT SW SFC FLOW TODAY...W IN THE MOUNTAINS...WILL BE NEARLY CALM TONIGHT WHILE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO NW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR IS POSSIBLE BUT DIFFICULT TO TIME IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AREAS OF POST RAIN FOG AND LOW CLOUD MAY BE MORE PREVALENT THEN CODED. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H M H H H M M M AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY ROUND OF CONVECTION FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING POST RAIN FOG AND STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...TRM

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