Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 210528 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 128 AM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... More widespread storms late tonight as a cold front crosses the region. Front lifts back north late Friday night/Saturday. System exits Sunday. Dry early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1015 PM Thursday... Updated POPs based on current radar, then blended toward the HRRR and RAP through the night. Still showing a line of likely POPs moving through overnight. Also updated temperatures based on current obs and trends. As of 230 PM Thursday... Surface boundary with associated surface trough acting as a trigger for some convective development this afternoon with a thin line of thunderstorms extending from just south of KPKB to KBLF. Also still seeing some isold redevelopment in eastern KY. Will keep at least isold POPs through this evening with higher values to the east. Front approaches from the west tracking through from the 06Z-12Z timeframe. Have not strayed far from inherited forecast in terms of timing the line that will be associated with front as it moves through. For temps...went with model blend with generous nod toward inherited forecast. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM Thursday... Focus remains on the front lifting back to the north, providing a focus for an extended period of showers and storms through Saturday night. GFS is more generous in terms of holding the higher PWATS through Saturday into Saturday night, which would lend to higher QPF, whereas the NAM is a bit quicker in pulling the mid level moisture out of the area. Regardless, will need to watch areas for repetitive rounds of showers and storms once the frontogenetic zone lifts back north into our CWA, as highlighted by the update to the HWO this morning. Ground conditions are currently still being set up with convection today and the cold front tonight. Lingering on the colder side of the boundary keeps temperatures below normal for much of the CWA in the short term. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 245 PM Thursday... Long range models now strengthening the short wave trough affecting the Great Lakes and its southern extent of rain into the northern half of the CWA. However, blended guidance still keeps not only the values of these POPs low, but the area remains contained as well. Until then, drier conditions prevail for the beginning of the week as temperatures rebound again under increasing thicknesses and 850mb temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 128 AM Friday... A cold front, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, will gradually sag south into the region through early afternoon, with additional waves, creating more widespread showers and thunderstorms after 15Z, mainly across southwest Virginia and eastern/southern West Virginia. Expect brief MVFR conditions in shra and tsra through 12Z. After 12Z, most northern TAF sites, those in southeast Ohio, Northeast KY, and adjacent WV counties/sites, should see gradual improvement to VFR, however sites along and south/east of a line from KCRW to KCKB will see more widespread MVFR and local IFR conditions, particularly after 18Z when more shower/thunderstorm activity picks up in these area. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR and maybe IFR could occur with showers and thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 04/21/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H L H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M L H M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H M H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H M H H M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H L AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR possible Saturday into Sunday with another wave of low pressure.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/26 NEAR TERM...KMC/MZ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...SL

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