Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 301102 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 702 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS GIVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. WEAK STEERING FLOW AND NO SURFACE FRONTS AS SEPTEMBER BEGINS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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FORECAST STILL ON TRACK PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DRIFT TOWARD FORECAST AREA TODAY BRINGING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH IT WHICH COULD CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY. MID AND LOW LEVEL FLOW IS QUITE CALM THROUGH THE ENTIRE DEPTH...BUT FAIRLY STRONG FLOW EXISTS AT THE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL. THIS SHOULD KEEP STORMS FROM BECOMING VERY STRONG AS THEY SHEAR OUT IN THE UPPER LEVELS. MOST ELEMENTS DO NOT FAVORABLY ALIGN...SO SPOTTY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THE MAIN VORT MAX ARRIVES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...SO SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MONDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW H5 VORT MAXES MOVING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. DESPITE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT...AFTERNOON HEATING OVER ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES CAN PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS. KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND SLIGHT CHANCE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON...DROPPING AOB 14 PERCENT MONDAY NIGHT. LESS COVERAGE IN RAINFALL ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...HAVING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...KEEPING THE LOWLANDS DRY. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING WARMER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY UPPER 80S TUESDAY AND AROUND 90 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. AT NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WENT WITH A COMBINATION OF SUPER BLEND AND NAM NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WITH A WEAK STEERING FLOW AND NO FRONTS IN OUR VICINITY...THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE THE SUMMER TIME PATTERN...DESPITE THE APPROACH OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. WILL TYPE TO HAVE MOSTLY A DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM POSSIBILITY WITH 20/30 POPS MOST DAYS. OF COURSE...AS WE GET CLOSER...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A DAY...WHERE WE CAN ENHANCE OR DECREASE THOSE POPS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SE FLOW SATURDAY...SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES COMPARED TO FURTHER WEST..FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FIGURING A RELATIVELY DRY GROUND...WILL TRY TO HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AOA GFS MOS GUIDANCE IN THE LOWLANDS. && .AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACHING FROM THE W AND FROM THE S...WILL BRING ABOUT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE LESS FOG THAN RECENT NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH IFR IS STILL FCST FOR EKN. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO SCATTERED TO CODE EXPLICITLY IN THE TAFS OTHER THAN A VICINITY MENTION IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY AS CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. A SHOWER OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM MAY DIRECTLY IMPACT A TERMINAL ON SUNDAY...BUT TIMING THIS IS DIFFICULT GIVEN THE COMPLEXITIES PLAYING OUT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 08/30/15 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z MONDAY... SPOTTY IFR POSSIBLE IN DENSE VALLEY FOG DURING EARLY MORNINGS...MAINLY IN WV AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...JW

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