Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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184 FXUS61 KRLX 250529 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 129 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warmer weather returns with temperatures climbing well above normal this weekend. Showers and Thunderstorms Sunday/Sunday night, and again late Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 955 PM Friday... Upped the overnight lows by 3-5 degrees from the previous forecast given the warm sector flow, but dropped a couple of the mountain valleys a couple degrees with radiating conditions there as they decouple. As of 140 PM Friday... Mainly quiet in the warm sector tonight and much of tomorrow. There will be intervals of clouds through the period, particularly late tonight and tomorrow morning. For temps, we rolled on the high side of guidance tonight and tomorrow which was well clustered to begin with. We may hit 80 along and south of the I64 corridor if we can get enough sun in the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 305 PM Friday... A system will bring a band of showers and possibly thunderstorms across the area on Sunday. Depending on the timing of the band and how much recovery time occurs in the western counties, could see some additional convection form late in the day. The region stays in the warm sector as this system moves off to the northeast, allowing for mild weather to continue. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 305 PM Friday... Another system will provide showers and possibly thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday. Behind a weak cold front, slightly cooler but mild temperatures can be expected for mid week. Models then show another system for the end of the week, but there are differences in the timing and placement of this system, leading to lower confidence. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 124 AM Saturday... VFR today with a broken deck of mid to high clouds. Light winds. Cold front crosses Sunday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 03/25/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR likely in showers and storms late Saturday night and Sunday, possibly lingering as fog and low ceilings Sunday night as the rain ends.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30/26 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...JW/26

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