Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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384 FXUS61 KRLX 220534 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 134 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses tonight. High pressure late Monday through Monday night, then low pressure and unsettled conditions Wednesday onward. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 130 AM Monday... No changes necessary. As of 1015PM... Dropped flash flood watch. Still a line of showers and thunderstorms associated with the cold front to the west, but overall weakening trend, and generally only a third of an inch or so of precipitation being observed. As of 720 PM Sunday... Tweaked pops to better reflect current radar trends. Line of showers and thunderstorms out ahead of approaching cold front, with brief heavy downpours and small hail. Will let FFA ride for a little while longer with approaching convection but think overall threat for flooding very low. As of 200 PM Sunday... Very slow moving warm front drifting through CWA today, with a cold front approaching from the west. Expect this cold front to move through overnight. Have widespread, but mainly light rain across most of the forecast area to start the period. Generally seeing under a tenth of an inch per hour rain rates with this...however radar starting to show a few areas of higher reflectivity that could result in an area of a half to an inch of rain in an hour. So far these areas have been moving along enough to limit any water concerns. Will continue with flash flood watch as it is, as it encompasses the area with the lowest flash flood guidance fairly well. Overall, PWATs should be near their max right now in the 1.5 to 1.8 inch range, and then slowly drop to around an inch right with the front. Continue to advertise more scattered type showers and storms between the warm front and cold front. Not a whole lot in the way of instability as ML CAPE tops out around 400J/kg. But with an upper level ripple sliding through cannot rule out and isolated to scattered thunderstorm. Then, have an area of higher POPs right along the cold front moving from west to east tonight. Showers should taper off from west to east behind the cold front, with some lingering precip possible across the mountains Monday morning. Otherwise, high pressure arriving from the west Monday. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 PM Sunday... We should dry out Monday night as weak surface high pressure moves overhead. A broad area of low pressure moves in Tuesday with most of the favorable dynamics to the east of our CWA. Increasing chances for rain, mainly in the east. The low pressure tightens up a bit for Wednesday sending an upper low over our area and will likely cause showers and thunderstorms to develop. So overall, fairly active this period after Tuesday morning. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 240 PM Sunday... Zonal flow will keep the extended fairly active with at least remnants of the Wednesday system lingering on Thursday. The next system is slated to move through on Friday night with a rapid succession following that through the weekend. This will likely have to be something to keep an eye on for water issues towards the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 AM Monday... Radar images show debilitating showers and storms associated with cold front located just entering southeast OH. High resolution models suggest this activity will dissipate once crosses the OH River. MVFR ceilings will prevail across central and eastern sites under south to southeast breeze. Localized and brief periods of IFR ceilings will be possible mainly over the mountains. Conditions will improve to VFR after 1314Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings could be lower than expected. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 05/22/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H M H H M H H M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H L AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... Dense fog is possible late Monday night into Tuesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ/SL SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...ARJ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.