Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 140218 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1018 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather arriving Monday. Dry weather on Wednesday followed by more unsettled weather into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 1005 PM Sunday... Sped up the arrival of the mountain POPs based on latest NAM/HRRR runs, and associated cloud cover as well. As of 155 PM Sunday... While we bask in nice weather today, attention in the near term focuses on the return of showers Monday. The convective complex currently over the southern MS Valley will move into the TN Valley tonight and across portions of the southern Appalachians Monday. Meanwhile, additional forcing will arrive courtesy of an amplifying s/w trof moving through the region. The end result is showers moving in Monday morning and increasing in coverage during the afternoon. After coordinating with surrounding offices, I have coded up likely pops generally along/east of the US 119/I 79 corridor. Pops tail off considerably to low chance across southeast Ohio. There will be some instability across southwest Va in the afternoon with a few storms possible. High temperatures were adjusted downward to reflect more of an unsettled day east of the Ohio River, with the eastern slopes even cooler with the development of low level wedge on southeast flow.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 PM Sunday... Weak high pressure will eventually take control of the weather across the region. As a result, shower and thunderstorm chances mainly in the mountains for Monday night and Tuesday will end by Tuesday night. Generally used a consensus of model data for lows Monday night and Tuesday night as well as highs for Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 310 PM Sunday... Models suggest southwest flow will develop with several mid- level disturbances progged to impact the region. As a result... an unsettled pattern will become established beginning Wednesday night. Have likely Pops for parts of our area Thursday through Friday with some guidance suggesting likely Pops should continue into Saturday. However because of uncertainty, have kept Pops as chance. Cold front pushes southeast on Saturday with precipitation chances ending from the northwest. Once again, used a consensus of model data for low and high temperatures. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 720 PM Saturday... High level moisture, and later, mid level moisture, brings cloud cover into the area after 06Z tonight, preventing a sustained period of valley fog development. Have some reduced visibilities in the TAFs at a few locations early in the overnight period, but coming up to MVFR/VFR late once the sky becomes BKN/OVC. The southern mountains will experience southeast upslope conditions as moist upslope flow seen at 925mb take hold around 12Z. Bring the ceilings to 1-2kft through around 18Z, lifting after this time frame. Showers move in west to east after 11Z Monday. MVFR prevails. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Should timing of clouds be delayed, then river valley fog will be more prevalent at the terminals. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 08/14/17 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H M L AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... IFR valley fog possible early Tuesday morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/30 NEAR TERM...30/26 SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...26

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