Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 170540 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 140 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT POSSIBLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS USING LATEST IR FOG/LOW STRATUS CHANNEL. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE. 1030 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... LOWER DEWPOINTS SLOWLY ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...AND SLOWLY MIXING OUT THE LOW STRATUS. MOST APPARENT OVER NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO AT THIS HOUR. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO DISSOLVE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A CALM OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF EXTENSIVE RIVER VALLEY FOG. SHOULD SEE THIS COMING IN EARLY TONIGHT...BEFORE 06Z IN PLACES...AND WILL BE STUBBORN TO MIX OUT WEDNESDAY. ALL SHOULD BE QUIET OVER THE LOWLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER...WILL BE EXPOSED TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE...DRIZZLE...AND THE TEMPERATURES DOWN. WILL KEEP SNOWSHOE BELOW 60F AND THE GREENBRIER VALLEY IN THE LOWER 60S. THIS MAY EVEN BE TOO GENEROUS AT THIS POINT. FEEL THE LOCAL MOS GUIDANCE FOR THIS AREA IS TOO HIGH AS IT PUTS MARLINTON AT 70F. KEEP THE POPS/WEATHER UNMEASURABLE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... QUIET WX REGIME TO ROUND OUT THE WORKWEEK AS AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL NW FLOW. THERE WILL BE SOME STRATOCU AROUND AT TIMES...MOSTLY DURING THE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE SE BY FRIDAY WHICH MAY KEEP MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS LOOK TO RUN 3 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL FEATURE A WARM UP FOR THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF AMPLIFICATION AND COLD FRONT. TREND HAS BEEN TO DELAY THIS FEATURE SO THAT SUNDAY MAY END UP STAYING DRY UNTIL LATE. DELAYED POPS AND CLOUDS AS A RESULT. ONCE THE FRONT BLOWS THRU AND THE TROF SETTLES IN...EXPECT ANOTHER COOL SHOT WITH HIGHS PROBABLY STAYING IN THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT WELL INTO THE 40S WITH SOME 30S IN THE COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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MODIS SATELLITE IMAGES AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW FOG AND LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS MOST PARTS OF THE CENTRAL WV...WESTERN SLOPES...AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AT 03Z. EXPECT MOST OF THESE CLOUDS TO STAY IN PLACE AND PERHAPS LOWER SOME TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CRW...EKN...AND BKW UNDER RADIATION FOG OR LOW STRATUS THROUGH 13Z. CONDITIONS COULD BOUNCE FROM MVFR TO IFR AT OTHER PLACES DUE TO CLOUD COVER ABOVE 1000 FEET. ANY IFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS WILL LIFT TO MVFR BY 13-14Z AND DISSIPATE BY 15-16Z WEDNESDAY MORNING LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS. AREAS OF DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DEPTH OF FOG OVERNIGHT COULD VARY FROM FORECAST. LOW CIGS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN MAY CLEAR INSTEAD OF LINGERING OVERNIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 09/17/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L M H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L M H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS THURSDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30/26 NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL/26 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...ARJ

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