Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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000
FXUS61 KRLX 161059
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
659 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure takes control today. Weak cold front brings
showers mainly across the northern portions of the area
tonight. Much colder air moves in Monday with stronger front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 417 AM Saturday...
Added patchy dense fog along river valleys at both sides of the
OH River as evident in satellite imagery during the overnight
hours. Rest of forecast remains on track.
As of 232 AM Saturday...
Surface high pressure provides dry and tranquil weather conditions
with above normal temperatures through tonight. A cold front
approaches from the northwest tonight, increasing clouds and
chances for precipitation mainly across the northern portions of
the Mid-Ohio valley and WV tonight.
Models show westerly H850 winds increasing 45 to 50 knots along the
front. This will create strong gusty winds along the front and
the higher elevations. However, confidence runs low whether wind
gusts could reach advisory criteria over the higher ridges as
only one model shows that outcome. Therefore, hold off on any
wind headline issuance for now.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...
Mostly zonal flow aloft with a broad upper low over Canada for
Sunday. Dry conditions will commence late morning as showers lift
off to the north behind a cold front. Westerly winds could be breezy
at times; gusty across the mountains with gusts between 30 and 40
mph.
An upper-level trough will swing through on Monday as the low over
Canada moves off to the northeast. Breezy and gusty winds continue
with a strong pressure gradient. 540MB line will also sink down as
strong CAA takes place, and it will be noticeable with high
temperatures in the 30s and 40s. At this time gusts look to
remain below advisory criteria, but will have to monitor trends
as there is a slight chance that gusts may increase depending on
how this trough will track.
There remains a slight chance for snow showers during the day Monday
with this strong system. Accumulations do not look likely, except
for along the ridges above 3,500 feet, as temperatures won`t be
quite cold enough for accumulations. Up to an inch is possible
across the higher elevations of the northern mountains.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 250 AM Saturday...
Wind chills look to be in the teens and single digits across
the higher elevations Tuesday morning with strong northwest
flow continuing on the back side of the exiting trough. A
clipper-type system will move through late Tuesday night into
early Wednesday morning with another quick round of mountain
snow possible.
Temperatures will start to moderate Wednesday as flow tries to
return to a more neutral pattern. Winds will gradually shift to a
southeasterly direction on Thursday and Friday which lead to a
warming trend throughout the week. A southern stream system
looks to impact the weekend with rain returning Friday and
Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 658 AM Saturday...
IFR/LIFR river valley dense fog, evident on satellite imagery, will
quickly dissipate by 14Z. Then, widespread VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through at least 03Z tonight. Winds will have a
southerly component, and become gusty during the afternoon (18Z to
21Z) especially along the higher terrain.
A quick passing cold front may bring showers across the northern
terminals tonight. Brief MVFR/IFR ceilings can be expected with this
activity.
Light west to southwest winds become gusty this afternoon and
continue through tonight. Light west wind aloft, becomes light to
moderate southwest this afternoon.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 03/16/24
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY M M H M M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/LTC
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...ARJ