Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 161114 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 614 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front just south of our area lifts north as a warm front through early morning. Cold front Tuesday night. Another system for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 600 AM Monday... Area of mainly light rain continues to drift east through the WV mountains as a weak surface boundary meanders through. With slight ridging aloft and little surface focus decreased POPs some through the remainder of this morning. Still...cannot rule out areas of light rain with the boundary in the area. That same story lingers through much of today, with some light rain possible -- especially across the northern CWA and mountains -- but there should be `dry` time too. Temperatures will once again be above normal. As a surface low heads into the western Great Lakes tonight a weak warm front slides through the Ohio River Valley. With some support from a 500mb ripple/ vort max have POPs increasing late this evening and tonight...with likely POPs for the Ohio River Valley and northern WV after midnight. Expecting a warm night tonight...if you can call 40s and 50s warm. Have a non-diurnal trend after midnight as WAA picks up on the southerly flow. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday... A cold front crosses Tuesday for another half to an inch of QPF area wide. Despite the name, the overall atmosphere is quite warm for this time of year and no snow is expected with this front. In fact, we may even see an isolated thunderstorm fire along the front. A strong vort max crosses Wednesday for shower where the highest elevations may see a changeover to snow. We get a brief break Wednesday evening into most of Thursday as high pressure builds. The next system approaches Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 AM Monday... Inclement weather pattern continues with a organized system expected Friday followed by another potentially heavy rain system late in the weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 610 AM Monday... Not a lot of confidence in this forecast with models struggling to even depict current situation well. Overall, have IFR ceilings and fog across the south. Farther north, clouds have been struggling to lower so keep mainly MVFR. Some guidance, like the GLAMP25 wants to keep IFR in place through most of the day. On the flip side, the 4k NAM dissipates any IFR very quickly this morning. Went with the idea that any fog and low stratus should gradually dissipate through mid morning, with MVFR to VFR expected for the bulk of the day under southerly flow. Rain moves back in tonight...especially across the west and north. MVFR to IFR expected in the rain tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low through morning then medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of category changes may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 01/16/17 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M L L M M M M L L HTS CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M M M L L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M L M L M M M M L L EKN CONSISTENCY M L H H H H L L H M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H L L CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H L L AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... IFR possible Tuesday and Tuesday night in rain and then lingering low stratus through Wednesday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...MZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.