Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 162220 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 620 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure through the weekend and most of next week, providing warm afternoons and cool nights. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 618 PM Saturday... While there is still the possibility of a few showers developing this evening, it does not appear that coverage will be as high as expected. So have lowered PoPs top slight chance category for the next few hours. Otherwise, nothing else changes at this time. As of 1250 PM Saturday... A high pressure system will remain over the area. Low level moisture is trapped under the high however, possible allowing for some afternoon showers in the WV mountains. Expect some dense fog to form again tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Saturday... Weak high pressure at the surface and aloft will lead to slightly above normal temperatures. Expect patchy dense river valley fog each morning. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible both Sunday and Monday afternoon, across the mountains. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 PM Saturday... No significant systems foreseen in the extended. There will be a lingering weakness in the mean upper level flow that may help to generate a few showers or thundershowers each afternoon, primarily across the high terrain. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 1250 PM Saturday... VFR cumulus can be expected this afternoon. Some showers could form this afternoon in the northern and central mountains of WV, providing a brief restriction. Expect VFR conditions early this evening, but dense valley fog will quickly form tonight. The fog will burn off by mid morning Sunday, with a VFR cumulus deck once again forming. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Scattered showers in the northern and central WV mountains this afternoon are not included in the TAFs due to their limited coverage. Timing of fog formation tonight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L L M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L L M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L L L M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L L M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L L M M AFTER 00Z MONDAY... IFR expected in morning river valley fog Sunday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...JSH/RPY SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...RPY

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