Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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528 FXUS61 KRLX 200612 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 112 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure today yields to southwest flow tonight and Tuesday. Cold front crosses Tuesday night. High pressure again through Thanksgiving. Cold front crosses Saturday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 110 AM Monday... High pressure slides south of the area this period. It cuts off the low level west to northwest upslope flow first thing this morning, so any lingering snow over the higher windward terrain will be gone by dawn, and the clouds will follow suit shortly thereafter, save for a little morning cu. Otherwise dry weather ensues this period, with southwest flow developing later today, around the backside of the exiting high. Along with sunshine, this will allow for a milder afternoon compared with Sunday. The south to southwest low level flow will limit radiative cooling tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 140 PM Sunday... Clear skies and slightly below normal temperatures will remain across the forecast area Monday night. This is in part thanks to an area of surface high pressure. The high will slide east making way for warm southwesterly winds to push Tuesday highs into the 50s to near 60 south. However, this brief warmup will be short-lived. The next cold front will bring another round of cold temperatures to the Region. This front is expected to traverse the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. While there is limited moisture associated with this system, there could be some brief showers or snow showers into the overnight hours Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The best chance for such conditions is the northern sections West Virginia into the higher elevations of the WV Mountains. Conditions should improve quickly Wednesday as surface high pressure takes control and scours out any lingering low level moisture. As previous forecast stated, clouds should remain in place thanks to the upper shortwave through this time. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 140 PM Sunday... Fairly quiet weather to start this time period. High pressure hangs on with warming temperatures. It is not until the weekend when conditions once again deteriorate. At the present time, models are leaning toward another strong cold front moving across the area. While this front does not have a lot of moisture with it, the chance for gusty winds and some showers do exist. Will have to keep an eye on this system as the week progresses as it is a major travel week. No significant tweaks were made as models are in good agreement at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 110 AM Monday... Stratocu will continue to clear from southwest to northeast this morning. Bases will remain above 3 kft except at BKW, where an MVFR base will likely persist until clearing, around 11Z this morning. Bases may lower a bit through early Monday morning before the clouds scatter out. Some morning cu can occur, but is not likely to re-introduce ceilings. Otherwise expect VFR this period. Westerly surface flow will continue to diminish through early this morning, becoming light southwest after daybreak, and then light south for this afternoon and tonight. Moderate west to northwest flow will become light to moderate west later this morning, and then light to moderate southwest tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR ceilings are possible before clearing early this morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 11/20/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H L L H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JB/TRM/RPY NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...JB LONG TERM...JB AVIATION...TRM

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