Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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127 FXUS61 KRLX 192018 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 318 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front midweek brings showers and storms. Front stalls through the end of the week, with significant rainfall possible. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 5h ridge strengthens across the eastern seaboard over the next 24 hours, leading to general height rises and gradual drying of the atmospheric column. At the surface, a good fetch of south to southwesterly flow continues with warm air advection. This leads to well above normal temperatures from this afternoon into Tuesday. For temps, used a blend of models hedging toward the slightly cooler MET MOS guidance, although not entirely. Tuesday should provide an early preview of late spring, early summer in the heart of February. Along the Ohio River... Flood warnings continue along the Ohio River in our HSA below Parkersburg. Parkersburg should be coming out of flood shortly. As of 1 PM, the crest is just passing Huntington, and will pass Ashland later this afternoon or evening. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 245 PM Monday... The period starts dry and solidly in the warm sector to start the short term with Tuesday night/Wednesday morning temperatures in the 50`s to around 60 across the area thanks to continued southerly flow. Look for Wednesday highs in the 60`s to 70`s, perhaps near 80 depending on the extent of western cloud cover. Ridging aloft shifts off- shore of the East Coast with the approach of a broad frontal zone from the West, increasing precipitation chances during the day Wednesday. Showers continue as the boundary moves into the region through Wednesday night and stalls through the end of the period. Thursday will be cooler as we`ll be placed on the cold side of the frontal boundary. The best forcing in right entrance of strong jet over eastern Canada at this time looks to provide ample lift and in turn high rainfall rates near the Ohio River Thursday. A relative lull in precipitation presents itself Thursday night, though some models have the aforementioned boundary again lifting to the north providing some light showers. So, have chosen to keep PoP`s up in the chance category to account for this. With PWAT exceeding 1.25" in the Ohio Valley... high rainfall amounts are possible with around 0.75" forecast in the Ohio Valley with locally higher amounts likely due to storm training, but will need to wait for higher resolution data to pinpoint where.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Monday... The all-too-familiar wet pattern continues through the weekend with ridging off shore of the East Coast and troughing over the western CONUS. This pattern will continue to pump in moisture and warmth. Yet another wave moves across the stalled frontal boundary Friday bringing higher precipitation chances particularly in the Ohio Valley. Then, in a cautiously hopeful turn of events, deep troughing to our West turns more zonal with a progressive short wave pushing through one last wave of heavy precipitation late Saturday through Sunday. Considering the already saturated soils and rainfall leading up to this prolonged weekend event, additional flooding on area creeks and streams and perhaps main stem rivers remain a possibility and it will continue to be highlighted in the HWO.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1222 PM Monday... Warm front has lifted north of the area leaving us in south to southwest flow and mostly VFR. Will continue to see some drying in the wake of front, with VFR expected for the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will be out of the S to SW with fair amount of gradient flow with downsloping off the eastern mountains. This should, for the most part, negate any chances for morning fog Tuesday morning, despite the wet soils and moist boundary layer. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR possible in stray shower or two. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR possible in showers late Wednesday or Wednesday night into Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/MC NEAR TERM...KMC/MZ SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...KMC

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