Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 212024 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 424 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEDNESDAY. WARMER BUT DRY ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE THINKING FOR THIS PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL BE LOWERING AND THICKENING WITH TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. CAN SEE SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS TRYING TO FIRE TO THE WEST OVER KY BUT THEY ARE STRUGGLING IN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS. AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING...A LOW-LEVEL THETA E RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A BIT BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY SHOWERS TO SURVIVE...BUT THE COLUMN WILL STILL NEED TO MOISTEN UP. KEEPING ANY POPS QUITE LOW AND CONFINED TO THE WEST FOR THIS REASON. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON FRONTAL TIMING FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING THE BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 15Z...CRW BY 18Z...AND THE MOUNTAINS BY 21Z. H500 SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR SOME PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY...SO HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS SHOWING UP IN THE WEST PRIOR TO 12Z. LIKELY POPS THEN DRAG ACROSS CWA WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE SHORTWAVE OUTRUNNING THE FRONT...SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WANES WITH TIME. SINCE RAIN WILL STILL BE FIGHTING THE ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS...QPF LOOKS TO TOP OUT AROUND .25 INCH. WITH CAPE APPROACHING 500 J/KG AND SOME FAVORABLE TIMING...KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. NO CHANCE OF SEVERE THOUGH AS SHEAR IS PRETTY MUCH NONEXISTENT. SHRA SHOULD EXIT FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH BOUNDARY AND HAVE A DRY CWA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. CONTINUING THOUGHT OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS. ONLY MINOR CHANGE TO WELL-CLUSTERED NUMBERS FOR TUESDAY. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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IT WILL BE DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY WITH A NORTH BREEZE...BUT REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S BY THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS...ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. BOTH MODELS HAVE SOME CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHING SOUTHEAST OH BY 09Z FRIDAY. SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS WITH FRIDAYS COLD FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN SECTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS TIMING IS NOT DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT HPC DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THE NIGHT...AS CLOUDS SLOWLY THICKEN AND LOWER AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. W/SW WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS. LEADING SHORTWAVE COULD POSSIBLY FIRE OFF A FEW SHRA AHEAD OF FRONT IN THE 03Z-09Z PERIOD...BUT DRY COLUMN COULD EASILY GOBBLE THEM UP TOO. BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA WILL BE FROM ROUGHLY 12Z-18Z AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS. HAVE MVFR VISIBILITY MENTIONED...WITH CIGS PROBABLY BOTTOMING OUT AT LOW-END VFR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE BUT NOT INCLUDED AT THIS POINT. CLOUDS WILL BE STARTING TO BREAK WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES MAY SHOW UP. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... AFTER CONSULTATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...ELECTED NOT TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. WHILE FUELS ARE CERTAINLY STILL DRY...RH VALUES WILL BE A TOUCH HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. ALSO...WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 10 MPH OR LESS FOR THE MOST PART. DID HIGHLIGHT DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FWF HOWEVER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/30 NEAR TERM...CL SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...CL FIRE WEATHER...CL

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