Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 150545 CCA AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Charleston WV 1245 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front crosses late Wednesday. High pressure crosses Thursday night. Strong cold front for Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1020 PM Tuesday... Lowered temperatures a dew points a bit per latest trends and near term guidance. Forecast otherwise on track as the last of the stratocu is gone, for now. As of 700 PM Tuesday... Forecast on track. As of 100 PM Tuesday... Low stratus has been tough to scatter east of the Ohio River thus far as the low level flow gradually veers around to the east amid negligible WAA thus far. As the flow turns more southeasterly and WAA increases this evening, much of the lingering stratus should erode. Of course this will lead to the eastern slopes locking in low clouds overnight. Lows were derived from a blend of a consensus approach. Wednesday morning should start with sunshine, but quickly become filtered by an advancing cirrus canopy ahead of an approaching cold front. Despite this, temps in the southeast flow downslope areas should reach upper 50s. Timing of the front looks to hold off until Wednesday evening...though prefrontal band of showers will work in from west to east late in the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 210 PM Tuesday... A cold front will push southeast across the area Wednesday night resulting in a good chance of showers. Models suggest that the airmass will be warm enough for much of the precipitation to fall in the form of rain. However, there could be some snow showers in the highest elevations late Wednesday night as colder air filters in. However, any snow showers that form should quickly switch back over to rain showers before ending Thursday. High pressure builds in by late Thursday and remain in place Thursday Night. Generally used a blend of guidance for the high temps for Thursday and lows Wednesday night and Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 210 PM Tuesday... High pressure should move east allowing a strong cold front to push southeast. Models diverge with the timing of cold front. GFS is faster with the front pushing southeast on Saturday while the ECMWF brings it on Saturday. Have gone with a model blend with the front pushing southeast by late Saturday. There will be a good chance of precipitation with this feature and have gone with likely PoPs. Would not be too surprised if the PoPs ended up being even higher. Combination of colder air, sufficient low-level moisture and northwest flow should result in a decent shot of upslope snow in the favored locations beginning Saturday night and continuing into Sunday night. We will have to continue to watch for a possible model solution convergence. Temperatures on Friday should be near normal with above normal readings expected on Saturday ahead of the front. Behind the front, below normal temperatures should prevail Sunday and Monday with a warming trend Tuesday. && .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 130 AM Wednesday... High pressure dominating the weather conditions with dry air in place. Satellite images show river valley fog across central and southern WV. The CRW obs shows valley fog as well.In addition, RAP boundary layer winds are around 10 knots. However, temperatures will continue to drop below freezing overnight. This will produce freeze/frost instead of fog. The fog should remain shallow. Therefore, expect mainly VFR conditions at most sites except nearby river basins. Low level flow turning more southeasterly, and increasing to 10 to 15 kts Wednesday morning. MVFR/IFR ceilings will return as a cold front approaches from the west Wednesday afternoon, and rain is likely to reach the Ohio River by 00Z Wednesday. Expect brief periods of IFR conditions along the heaviest showers. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: An MVFR deck may reach BKW early Wednesday morning. Fog may lower visibility to IFR at EKN, and may form at CKB or CRW, overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 11/15/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR possible behind a cold front overnight Wednesday night into Thursday morning, mainly in stratus.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30/AB NEAR TERM...TRM/30 SHORT TERM...JSH/AB LONG TERM...JSH/AB AVIATION...ARJ

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