Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 192347 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 745 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST. LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS FROM SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. WARMER...BUT STILL MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY CAME OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND WAS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN LOWLANDS TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AT 23Z. WINDS SHIFT TO SE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. FIGURING THE FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS EVENING...WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET DURING THE 00Z TO 02Z TIME FRAME. RAP HAS THE 925 MB FLOW INCREASING 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN LOWLANDS...THEN SHIFTING WEST INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO BY FIRST LIGHT...OR 11Z TO 12Z SATURDAY. SO INCREASED THE WINDS FOR TONIGHT...AND DOWNPLAYED THE FOG EXCEPT IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA SOUTH OF CRW. INCREASED THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES ON SATURDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONTAL BAND ON SUNDAY AND WHETHER LOW CLOUDS LINGERER BEHIND THE FRONT. NAM HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH FRONTAL TIMING...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SPED UP. WILL STAY WITH THE SREF/GFS WHICH REPRESENTS THE MIDDLE GROUND AND IS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE. WILL KEEP A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR AND THE NAM HIGHER RESOLUTION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY CAME OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND WAS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN LOWLANDS TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AT 23Z. WINDS SHIFT TO SE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. FIGURING THE FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET DURING THE 00Z TO 02Z TIME FRAME. RAP HAS THE 925 MB FLOW INCREASING 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN LOWLANDS THEN SHIFTING WEST INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO BY FIRST LIGHT OR 11Z TO 12Z SATURDAY. IN THE 00Z SET OF TAFS THOUGH ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP THICK FOG OUT OF CRW. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENING OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES BY 12Z...DID INCLUDE SOME THICKER FOG IN THE DEEP VALLEYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...SSE OF CRW. MEANWHILE...THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS LOW STRATUS CEILING BANKED UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS MAINLY FROM CHEAT MOUNTAIN E OF EKN TO FLAT TOP MOUNTAIN NEAR BKW. CONFIDENCE ONLY MEDIUM...MAINLY DUE TO FIGURING THE CEILING OVERNIGHT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SOUTHEAST FLOW...WHICH INCLUDES BKW. STILL THINK CEILINGS WILL LOWER AOB 1 THSD FT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES...BEFORE LIFTING 12Z TO 15Z SATURDAY. VSBY SHOULD BE MOSTLY AOA 5 MILES FOR BKW ELEVATION. HOWEVER... HIGHER RIDGES...GENERALLY AOA 3500 FEET...WILL BE OBSCURED IN THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z. LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO MOSTLY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH THE STRONGER GUSTS IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES. MAINLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT AGL AFTER 15Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IF SHALLOW INVERSION SETS UP AND ALLOWS WINDS AT GROUND TO DECREASE...THICKER FOG POSSIBLE AT CRW AND EKN. ALSO SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD THEN DEVELOP. ALSO...TIMING THE FORMATION TONIGHT AND EROSION SATURDAY MORNING...OF THE LOW STRATUS INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 09/20/14 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H L M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...KTB

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