Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 010627 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 220 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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COLD FRONT SINKS INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA TODAY. MUCH COOLER NORTH OF FRONT TODAY. DISTURBANCE RIDES NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING SHOWERS. WEAK/SLUGGISH FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MID/UPPER LOW IN TENNESSEE VALLEY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 10 PM UPDATE. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE REFIRED ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWESTERN WV THIS EVENING. THIS CONVECTION/DISTURBANCE WILL WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WV. HAVE RAISED POPS MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN WV TIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MODELS SHOWING A SLOWING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL SLIDE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MOST OF THE UPPER AIR SUPPORT TONIGHT STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO RELY MORE ON DIURNAL CONVECTION AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AS FOCUSING MECHANISMS. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A DISTURBANCE PROVIDING SOME LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY...SO WILL INCREASE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES ITS BEST TO SLIP OUT OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT PROBABLY ENDS UP HANGING UP IN THE MTNS. THUS...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE...PREDOMINATELY E OF I79 AND DIURNALLY ENHANCED. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH PROGRESSION OF CUTOFF UPPER LOW...INITIALLY OVER DEEP S. KEPT SOME MAINLY DIURNAL POPS IN THRU THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AT 06Z...COLD FRONT NEAR W22 OR JUST WEST OF EKN...AND JUST EAST OF CRW. HAVE FRONT SLOWLY DOWN OVER THE SOUTHERN WV MOUNTAINS...SO HARD TO DETERMINE TIMING FOR BKW. TRIED TO DELAY THE LOWER CEILINGS THERE. OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD IFR IN LOW CEILINGS...BUT ONLY SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH 15Z. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN HTS TRI STATE AFTER 15Z AND MOVING NE DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN UNI-PKB TO CKB AREA CEILINGS MAY LIFT TOWARD 2 THSD FT... FOR A TIME DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...BEFORE SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE TODAY. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND ALONG THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES INCLUDING BKW THIS AFTERNOON. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM...NORTH OF THE FRONT...IN THE HTS-CRW AREA...BUT TRIED TO DOWNPLAY THAT SCENARIO IN THE 06Z SET OF TAFS. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN RAIN SHOWERS...RAIN INDUCED FOG...AND LOW CEILINGS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IF PUSH OF FRONT IS A BIT FASTER TOWARD THE SOUTHE... CEILINGS AND VSBY COULD LOWER FASTER THAN FORECAST AT BKW AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU OF WV. .AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR IN SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS CEILINGS THROUGH TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/JMV/30 NEAR TERM...RPY/JMV SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...KTB

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