Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 172326 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 726 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/DISSIPATES. STORM SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SE ALONG COAST...RESULTING IN DRY/WARM EASTER WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED ATTM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES SPLIT BY FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN U.S. DEVELOPS AND TREKS EASTWARD...WHILE A COLD FRONT IN NORTHERN STREAM WILL TREK EAST TOWARDS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...THUS NO NEED FOR A FREEZE WARNING ANTICIPATED. AS FRONT ENTERS SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES TOWARDS END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...BUT AT BEST...MAY ONLY SEE SPRINKLES...DUE TO WEAKENING NATURE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND DRY AIR IN PLACE THAT WILL PREVENT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE IN SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES FOR NOW. MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE AND MORE CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AND DYNAMICS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CWA. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY EVENING...IF ABLE TO OCCUR...WOULD BE SOUTHWEST VA AND SOUTHERN WV MOUNTAIN ZONES. WILL LEAVE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH DRY FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE ADVERTISED WEAKENING COOL FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...ANY CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER REMAINS SLIM. WILL LEAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH...FOR CONSISTENCY FOR NOW. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE FURTHEST NORTH DEVELOPING DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING CUT OFF 500 MB LOW OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. YET...EVEN THE 12Z GFS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE 06Z GFS. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE OUR CWA DRY...WITH PCPN MENTIONING POPS JUST OFF TO OUR SE. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS MOSTLY NORTHEAST RATHER THAN SOUTHEAST. DEW POINTS MAY ACTUALLY DROP IN THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH WEEKEND...BUT WITH DRYING THE USUAL SCATTERING OF BRUSH FIRES FIGURED DURING LATE AFTERNOONS. SO OVERALL...IF CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...A RELATIVELY PLEASANT EASTER WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... CONTINUED WPC THINKING THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD GENERALLY-SPEAKING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A S/W UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REGARDING THAT SYSTEM...BUT YET BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING THE SYSTEM ACROSS EITHER MON NIGHT OR TUE MORNING. AS SUCH...LOWERED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY BEFORE BRINGING IN HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO CAP PRECIP CHANCES AT HIGH CHANCE WITH THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. NO MAJOR HEAT WAVES OR COLD BLASTS ON THE HORIZON DURING THIS PERIOD. DID WARM TEMPS UP A FAIR AMOUNT FOR MONDAY...INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS...WITH GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WON/T BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL SPREAD FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY 13Z FRIDAY. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THROUGH 09Z...WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z...BUT REMAIN LIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK COULD FORM OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/50/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...ARJ

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