Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 220007 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 707 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON ITS BACK SIDE WILL BRING ABOUT A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...BUT LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WET SECOND HALF TO IT. COOLER NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 700 PM UPDATE... ADDED A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN TO PERRY COUNTY SAT MORNING...NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HAZARDS. ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT / BRIEF...AS THE COLD AIR SHOULD BE QUICKLY ERADICATED. THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR THAT WOULD WET BULB THE TEMPERATURE AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO HOLD OFF SAID ONSET. PREV DISCN BELOW... HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AS HIGH PULLS EAST. MAY EVEN HAVE A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS OHIO. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...SO LEFT ANY POPS OUT OF FAR NW CORNER. PLUS...ANY PRECIP THAT MAY FALL FROM CLOUDS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND WITH DRY AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE. STARTED WITH A MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...THEN MADE A FEW TWEAKS. WENT NON-DIURNAL ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ALSO WENT A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE WEST AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... WARM...BUT RAINY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES INTO THE MIDWEST. GOOD MOISTURE FETCH WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND PW VALUES PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT RATHER GUSTY WINDS...PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS. COULD STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. BULK OF FORCING WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER TAKING HOLD FOR THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. HOWEVER...COLD FRONT...WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ONCE AGAIN. LOOKING AT THIS POINT THAT NOT ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CWA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST. MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION. SHORTWAVES ARE MORE EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW. TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... QUIET VFR AVIATION PERIOD EVEN AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ON SAT WILL BRING SOME ALTOCU AND STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY TO NRN SITES PKB-CKB-EKN. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING. LIGHT...NEARLY CALM FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT S ON SAT. LIGHT NW NW FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO LIGHT SW OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MODERATE SW OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...AND THEN REMAINS SO ON SAT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/LS/TRM NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...TRM

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