Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KRLX 292349
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
749 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016
Moist southeast flow will raise shower chance today in the
mountains. Upper level ridge rebuilds for mid week. cold front
arrives thursday with showers and cooler air.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
730 pm update...Skies are clearing to the west so I went ahead and
updated sky cover based on current satellite and trends.
545 pm update...Forecast remains mostly on track. Just made minor
changes to temperatures based on current observations and trends.
Also went ahead and updated PoP based on current precipitation
coverage on RADAR.
Unsettled weather across the CWA today...as moisture from
tropical depression Bonnie overspreads the mountainous
counties...and scattered thunderstorms have formed across parts of
southeast Ohio...northeast Kentucky...and adjacent WV counties as
a shortwave trough approaches from the west. Overall...much of the
moisture associated with TD Bonnie is struggling to reach the
ground on western side of the mountains...with thunderstorms
across western zones slow moving and producing brief heavy
downpours. Have continued the trend with thunder in the western
zones today...and showers across the east associated with Bonnie.
Showers...and perhaps an isold thunderstorm will continue
tonight...mainly across southeast Ohio and adjacent KY and WV
counties...as a surface cold front...entering Indiana at
18Z...moves east into the region. However...activity will be
rather limited due to the late arrival of the front.
Drier...and cooler weather across much of the area on
Monday...although a slight chance for showers will still exist
across the east depending on the timing/exit of the front.
Next concern for tonight is whether or not fog will form. At this
point...thinking best bet/location for fog development is across
the north and west...where some partial clearing late tonight is
possible. Still...patchy fog development cannot be totally ruled
out in other locations...particularly where rain occurs.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Remnants of tropical storm Bonnie is expected to be over the
Carolinas by Tuesday 12z. Meanwhile, a cool front with limited
moisture approaches from the northwest. The area will be under the
influence of a small high pressure maintaining dry weather until
Tuesday night. Small chance for showers appears along the
mountains as moisture from the tropical system gets squeeze across
the front crosses to the south by 12z Wednesday. The diurnal
heating and near calm flow will keep low chance for showers or
storms Wednesday and Wednesday night along the mountains.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Another cold front approaches from the west Friday morning. Kept
high chance PoPs lowlands and likely PoPs over elevations of 3000
feet and higher.
Current track of remnants of tropical storm Bonnie approach from
the southeast Thursday through Friday. Attm, seems that the
showers will stay over the eastern mountains Wednesday and
Wednesday night. An upper trough moves east across the Great Lakes
region on Sunday. This second system is strong enough to drive a
weak front across the area Sunday night and Monday morning.
Went with a combination of the super blend and the all blend
guidance for temperatures through the period.
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tricky forecast overnight as showers and thunderstorms die off and
clouds thin out. Very high dewpoints are still stretched across
the area and now with earlier rainfall in places such as
PKB...CKB...and EKN...the environment is prime for fog
Current thinking is that PKB will be first to go down...however
this will all depend on whether or not a line of showers and
storms to the west in Ohio will fall apart before they reach PKB.
Current thinking is that they will die out right before or near the
Ohio Valley...so have kept SCT clouds at PKB for now and bring in
MVFR conditions by 230Z with fog starting to develop. All other
sites should see fog development hold off until the early morning
hours...while BKW should escape any fog tonight and remain VFR.
Definitely some uncertainty on how low visibility will drop off.
Where there was rainfall earlier...I am much more confident that
IFR conditions will occur...but not as confident at HTS or CRW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Where and when fog develops tonight is in
question. Also...how dense the fog will become is also a low
confidence forecast at this time.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.