Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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387 FXUS61 KRLX 171829 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 129 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Cold front pushes through this afternoon into tonight. Active pattern continues with another warm system for the end of the week and yet another early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 2 PM Tuesday... Warm front has passed through the region and temperatures are now climbing into the upper 50s to low 60s. Cold front will enter the Ohio Valley this afternoon and be through the region later tonight. Not much upper level support with the front as such, the shower activity will be isolated across the Eastern Forecast Area. Showers will likely be more numerous in the mountains with upslope enhancement but still not enough confidence in coverage to go with categorical PoP. Quite a bit of stratus behind the front trapped below inversion at about 4K feet. Clouds will likely persist through the forecast period with possibly even some patchy drizzle in some areas. Well mixed as well below this inversion and winds will be a bit gusty behind the front out of the west from 15 to 25 mph. Another short wave/positive tilted upper system passes through the region tomorrow and will likely bring more showers to the mountains. Enough cold air looks to filter in aloft to change rain over to snow across the higher elevations, but not thinking much in the way of accumulation. Some uncertainty on exactly how high the rain/snow line will be. Right now, forecast guidance supports a rain/snow mix above 2500 feet and all snow above 3000 to 3500 feet.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday... Weak cold lobe overhead on Wednesday may bring a few snow showers to the mountains otherwise light rain elsewhere. In between systems Thursday while still quite mild. A warm southern system drifts north on Friday bringing another round of rain with another half to inch of rainfall expected. Still no snow. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 AM Tuesday... In between systems on Saturday, next system approaches from the southwest and slides through on Sunday lingering into Monday. Surprisingly, there is fairly good model agreement this far out, so went a little more aggressive with PoPs on Sunday night into Monday. Still a little concerned with the persistent rainfall amounts, but so far have escaped flooding as breaks have been sufficient enough to flush out each systems rainfall before the next arrives. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 200 PM Tuesday... Isolated showers through the region this afternoon with scattered showers in the mountains tonight as a weak cold front pushes through. Some heavier showers will bring some brief IFR conditions across the north with PKB and CKB starting off the 18Z period with these showers overhead. Outside of showers we will likely see VFR visibilities and MVFR stratus. Stratus field behind the cold front is robust and should persist through the TAF period, and although for the most part guidance keeps ceilings just above IFR there is still some uncertainty that some sites may drop below, especially in the mountains. Winds will be gusty out of the west behind the front as well. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of areas of showers will vary, along with category changes. Brief IFR possible and IFR possible in mountains with low level clouds tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M H L H M M M H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H L M M H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H M L M H M M H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H M H L M H M H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H M AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR possible in rain Thursday night into Friday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...MPK

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