Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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086 FXUS61 KRLX 020220 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 920 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler high pressure to end the work week. Weak upper trough late Sunday into Sunday night. Warm front Monday night Tuesday. Milder mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 920 PM Thursday... Tweaked cloud cover some across tri-state where it had gone clear. Starting to fill back in now, but still have a relatively large area of clear skies over northern/eastern KY and southwest OH. As of 245 PM Thursday... Finally a more winter type regime this period with west to northwest flow aloft. However, even with a west to northwest flow of colder air, and moist low levels, to prevail into Friday with lots of clouds, temperatures will only be near normal. Compared to a long stretch of above normal temperatures, this will feel more like winter. In this pattern, there is enough upslope component and moisture to squeeze out scattered mainly higher elevation snow showers in the northern WV mountains, but with little to no accumulation. There will be a weak upper impulse in the west to northwest flow coming across the area on Friday that will be watched for possibly a little more mountain snow activity, but for now, this does not look significant. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 PM Thursday... Baroclinic zone over the southeast and weak trough aloft in the northern stream will remain separate entities going forward, so that will keep the heavier precipitation to the south of the CWA. Trough aloft will be a quick mover as well, making this a low end QPF event, generally in the Sunday night time frame. Southwest Virginia may see fringe influences from the southern system/stationary front, with a bit higher QPF for our two counties in that region. The rain could change to a rain snow mix or light snow as the POPs exit Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 250 PM Thursday... Beyond Monday, another upper trough axis in the southern stream will lift into the lower Ohio Valley, so any drying during the day Monday will be short lived. The flow remains progressive, so this should be in and out with the low pressure center to the west bringing a warm front northward through the central Appalachians and middle Ohio Valley. Temperatures increase through mid week with isolated warm advection showers remaining in play through Thursday. Towards the end of the extended, expect the synoptic scale pattern to amplify with a vigorous cold front slated for the end of the week. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 630 PM Thursday... Cloud deck remains in place across the north. Clouds have scattered out across the southern third of CWA. Overnight clouds will fill back in and lower, with MVFR expected at all sites by dawn. With NW flow in place, isolated to scattered upslope snow showers expected in the mountains, but should not impact TAF sites. Could be some IFR with this -- again outside of TAF sites. Clouds will gradually break up and lift from west to east Friday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of category changes in clouds may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H L M M M H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M L AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... IFR possible at higher mountain ridges into Saturday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...MZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.