Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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000
FXUS61 KRLX 160639
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
239 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure takes control today. Weak cold front brings
showers mainly across the northern portions of the area
tonight. Much colder air filters in during the new week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 232 AM Saturday...
Surface high pressure provides dry and tranquil weather conditions
with above normal temperatures through tonight. A cold front
approaches from the northwest tonight, increasing clouds and
chances for precipitation mainly across the northern portions of
the Mid-Ohio valley and WV tonight.
Models show westerly H850 winds increasing 45 to 50 knots along the
front. This will create strong gusty winds along the front and
the higher elevations. However, confidence runs low whether wind
gusts could reach advisory criteria over the higher ridges as
only one model shows that outcome. Therefore, hold off on any
wind headline issuance for now.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Friday...
A front will move south into the area late Saturday night/early
Sunday, with light showers taking hold, mainly across northern
zones. Gusty winds can be expected with this front, particularly
across the northern mountain zones where stronger winds aloft will
have the potential to affect mountain peaks, with gusts 30 to 40 mph
common, possibly approaching advisory criteria at times on the
highest peaks.
By Monday, an upper trough will dig south across the area, bringing
in colder air and light snowfall to the region, with light snow
expected even across the lowlands. Accumulations should generally be
limited to the higher terrain however due to the warm ground. In
addition to the snow, CAA and increased pressure gradient will
result in rather gusty winds, and this combined with the cooler
temperatures will be a bit of a shock to the system after the warm
weather. Wind chills will be in the teens to 20s at times Monday
into Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1215 PM Friday...
A cool northwesterly flow remains across the area on Tuesday, with
the potential for another fast moving clipper type system affecting
the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, with additional light snow,
mainly across the northern mountains. Temperatures moderate towards
the end of the period as heights build and southerly flow increases
out ahead of another system, which looks to affect the area late in
the week into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 128 AM Saturday...
Satellite imagery and METARs indicate a solid low stratus deck
affecting BKW as well as the eastern mountains and western foothills
with IFR conditions. Drier air has intruded from the northwest
producing clear skies across the Mid Ohio valley and portions of WV
including PKB, HTS and CRW at 06Z. These clearing will continue to
spread south and east bringing VFR conditions to CKB and EKN by 08Z,
and to BKW by 14Z Saturday morning. High pressure then takes control
providing widespread VFR conditions through tonight.
Despite of the clearing, H850 winds 15 to 20 knots and a northerly
surface breeze will prevent widespread dense fog from developing
during the overnight hours. Patchy river dense fog will be
possible in the vicinity of PKB and HTS during the predawn
hours.
Light north to northwest surface flow will become light west to
southwest by dawn Saturday, and can become a bit gusty at PKB
Saturday afternoon. Moderate northwest flow aloft overnight will
become light west Saturday morning, and then light to moderate
southwest Saturday afternoon.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog overnight into Saturday morning could
be more widespread and dense than advertised. Ceilings may
fluctuate into Saturday morning along the mountains.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 03/16/24
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY L L H M H M L M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L H H H H M M M L H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H L M M M L L M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M L M M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M L H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/LTC
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ