Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 280716 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 316 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... FIRST COLD FRONT IS NOW THROUGH THE AREA AND EXPECT TO BE DRY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AWAITING SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING THE CONVECTION FOR THE DAY ALONG WITH THE CANADIAN AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE. ASSISTING THE CONVECTION WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL THAT HAS SETTLED INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH THAT SAID...HAVE SCALED BACK THE COVERAGE OF THE POPS TODAY...AND FIGURE THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. WILL NOT GET TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL EXTENT WITH A CAP IN PLACE AROUND 650HPA. AS THE COOLER AIR POURS IN...EXPECT ANOTHER JULY DAY WITH LOWLAND 70S AND MOUNTAIN 60S. SNOWSHOE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 60F TODAY...BUT THINK IT WILL ULTIMATELY HAPPEN. LOWLAND 50S AND MOUNTAIN 40S ON TAP FOR TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WILL KEEP A SUPPLY OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA. EXCEPT FOR AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS NORTH...EXPECT DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... TSRA WILL EXIT THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MODELS ARE BRINGING IN LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE BEST BET GIVEN THE WINDS THAT SHOULD STAY IN THE 5-10KT RANGE PREVENTING FOG FORMATION. WILL KEEP THE CEILINGS MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH VFR VISIBILITIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOMORROW...GIVING CONVECTION CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OF PKB...CKB...AND EKN. WILL NOT CARRY THIS IN THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. WINDS PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS IN THE 20KT RANGE GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST. THESE WINDS WILL COME BACK DOWN AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING ONSET MAY VARY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 07/28/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H M H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M L H H L L L H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H M H H H H H M AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...30

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