Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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973 FXUS61 KRLX 260523 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 123 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low over Ohio Valley will move east across the area bringing chances for showers and storms through Friday. Additional disturbances bring showers and storms over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 810 PM Thursday... Showers continue to stream into the area though intensity should wane as the sun goes down. Expired the Flash Flood Watch though heavier showers moving into the area could pose a localized risk for higher flows. As of 205 PM Thursday... Well defined upper level vort max rotating through the base of the parent upper low bringing a shield of light rain through the Tri State area and coal fields. Rates are generally light, and should pose too much of a problem despite the coverage and hitting most of the basins. Flash flood guidance down in that area is less than an inch over an hour, but we should be below that threshold. With the upper low passing this evening and the 500mb height gradient sharpening in its wake, expecting winds to increase tonight with ridge and mountain top gusts in the 25-35kt range. BUFKIT profiles do not show advisory criteria wind to mix down from the NAMnest model/momentum transfer. POPs exit tonight, lastly in the northeast mountains with a brief chance for drying heading into the Friday time period. Temperatures should be significantly warmer over the Tri State and coal fields/southern mountains tomorrow with a better chance to see sun. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 PM Thursday... Models showing a disturbance moving through the area Friday night into Saturday, providing some showers. Behind the disturbance, the atmosphere destabilizes with strong thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon and evening. Will have to watch for the possibility of severe storms. With the ground already saturated from recent rains, also concerned with flash flooding. Yet another disturbance will move through Saturday night into Sunday, with thunderstorms once again possible in the afternoon and evening behind the wave. Flash flooding once again could be a problem. A weak cold front will then push through Sunday night into Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 350 PM Thursday... A weak cold front will push south of the area Monday morning. This will leave the area under a persistent upper level trough for Tuesday through Thursday. This will provide relatively cool weather, with disturbances rotating through the trough providing showers at times. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 125 AM Friday... Widespread MVFR and IFR conditions as an upper low slowly exits the region. Expect a gradual improvement from west to east generally after 09Z, with northern WV sites and mountainous sites last to improve to VFR. Otherwise, gusty westerly winds today, with gusts in the teen to lower 20 kt range across the lowlands and 20 to 30 kt range across the mountains. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... Forecast Confidence: Low ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR and IFR cigs across the area may be slower to improve to VFR than currently predicted. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 05/26/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR possible during showers and storms through Monday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/JW/26 NEAR TERM...JW/26 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...SL

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