Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 181007 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 607 AM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Upper ridge dominates the work week, increasing heat and humidity. Mainly scattered afternoon mountain storms. Storms increase with northwest flow Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 545 AM Tuesday... Per current ob trends, less river valley fog this morning compared to yesterday morning. As of 255 AM Tuesday... Upper ridge builds over the region today as weak upper trough shifts eastward, increasing the heat and humidity just a bit more than yesterday. Still set up for early morning river valley fog, and plenty of sunshine thereafter. However, the prospects for afternoon convection will be limited with the warming upper ridge, as models indicate. One area with less convection for this afternoon as compared to yesterday, is southeast Ohio with the upper level warming ridge, despite the very weak surface boundary in the vicinity. The best chance for afternoon convection will be the east facing slopes of the northern and central mountains of WV, where a south southeast flow of better low level moisture will combine with an elevated heat source. Tonight will be quite similar to last night, with convection dissipating early due to loss of heating, and redevelopment of early morning river valley fog.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 AM Tuesday... Getting decent run to run consistency in the operational models as the flow aloft gradually turns northwesterly in response to the building ridge over the lower to middle Mississippi Valley. As it does so, convection will be relegated north and west of the CWA. Position of the associated warm front will be crucial in the track of developing complexes as they encroach the northern zones late in the short term. Remaining hot and humid with dewpoints back over the 70F mark in lowland areas. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 215 AM Tuesday... The operational long term suffer from diverging solutions, but a common theme on the front end is the increase in convective activity. GFS will hold onto a more zonal pattern aloft while the old 12Z run of the Euro develops an open wave aloft and subsequent frontal system that will provide a distinct change in airmass for the end of the long term. Lower confidence in the POPs beyond Sunday as the blends keep the chances up but bring in cooler air for the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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12Z Tuesday thru 12Z Wednesday... As of 545 AM Tuesday... Upper high pressure continues to build over the area from the west today, and the weak upper trough slowly shifts east of the WV mountains. While a weak surface boundary will still reside over southeast OH today, the rising heights and warming aloft will bring less afternoon convection for that area. The best chance for afternoon convection will be over the east facing slopes of the northern mountains of WV where a more moist low level upslope south southeast flow combines with an elevated heat source and the departing upper trough. Thus, convection today looks to be widely scattered at best for southeast OH, and scattered for mainly east facing slopes of the northern mountains. Elsewhere, no convection expected. Today... Expect patchy IFR river valley fog across the area, affecting mainly PKB, CKB and EKN til around 12Z. Thereafter, mainly SCT afternoon cu AOA 5000-7000 feet AGL, except ceilings 4000-6000 feet with scattered afternoon showers/storms mostly over the east facing slopes of the northern and central WV mountains. Included VCTS at EKN and BKW this afternoon. Near calm winds becoming light westerly west of the mountains, and light south winds east of the mountains, later this morning. Tonight... Any afternoon convection and daytime cu rapidly decrease with loss of heating this evening. Any redevelopment of fog will be after 08Z Wednesday and similar to early this morning. Near calm winds again. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium for fog tonight. Medium for northern/central WV mountain convection this afternoon. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Convection may be more widespread this afternoon on the east facing slopes. Fog timing and extent will likely vary tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY L M M H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY M L M H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... Patchy IFR river valley fog is possible Wednesday morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JMV

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