Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 210627 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 227 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... ADJUSTED POPS PER LATEST RADAR IMAGES SHOWING AN AREA OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL WV. MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN OH INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THAT ACTIVITY. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... 1050 PM UPDATE...TWEAKED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR. INITIAL ECHOS HAVE NOT PRODUCED MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MOISTEN UP. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT...AND 12Z MODELS HAVE EXPANDED OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. HAVE ADDED LIKELY POPS TO THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH ONLY WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FROM A LINE EXTENDING TO THE NORTH FROM PARKERSBURG TO CLARKSBURG. WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...HAVE NOT ADDED ANY THUNDER TO THE FORECAST. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE ALSO CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN THE OVERALL EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM...ONLY SHIFTING THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE OUTER BANKS BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN FOR SEVERAL HOURS LONGER...WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER. LOCATIONS IN THE RIDGES MAY NOT EVEN CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WIOTH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. THE HIGH AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS HIGHS AND LOWS FOR THIS PERIOD...SO ONLY MADE SOME TWEAKS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AND HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES. LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ON SUNDAY AND REMAINING TO THE NORTH AFTERWARDS. WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ONCE THE WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AREAS OF RAIN FALLING FROM A MID DECK PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST SITES. THIS PCPN ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...BUT CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT LOCATION OF IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 500MB RIPPLE OF VORT MAX...CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL KY...ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODELS SUGGEST CLOUDS TO THICKEN...WITH MORE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER...RADAR IMAGES SHOW VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY UPSTREAM OF CURRENT ACTIVITY. THEREFORE...HAVE MVFR CIGS TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...GRADUALLY IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST. COULD EVEN GET SOME ISOLATED IFR CIGS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH FOG/LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH NEAR TERM...ARJ/MZ/99 SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...ARJ

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