Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 240752 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 352 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front slides southward through the area Today. A much stronger cold front will cross late Monday, setting us up with more autumn-like temperatures next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 350 AM Saturday... A west to east oriented cold front slips southward through the area today. The front is almost of a back door nature, given the driving upper level trough is moving off the east coast. Thus, little moisture or forcing is available to the front, and mainly just clouds are anticipated. Did keep the slight chance for a shower today, as narrow CAPE and mid level moisture may be just enough to stand something up. Surface high pressure sails by to the north of the area tonight, as an upper level slowly approaches from close by to the west. A spotty light shower could occur late tonight along the eastern slopes of the WV mountains, as low level flow veers to the east. Otherwise, patchy altocu behind the front will keep fog patchy and intermittent overnight tonight. Temperatures were close to the latest guidance and were not changed much. Highs today are reached by early afternoon, and then temperatures plateau, as the front and its associated clouds push south. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 AM Saturday... Frontal boundary should be across far southern zones at the start of the period...with slightly lower dew points across the north. Most of the area should be dry on Sunday...although a slight chance for showers is possible across the south and the higher terrain mainly during peak heating hours. Cold front will approach from the west on Monday...with showers and thunderstorms...with much cooler air moving in behind the front. Front should be to the east of the CWA by late Monday night...with drier air filtering in. Area will be under the influence of an upper low/trough into mid week...with isolated -shra and clouds possible...mainly across the north...along with cooler/more seasonable temperatures. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1225 pm Friday... Cold front exits by Tuesday afternoon taking any precip with it. Much cooler and drier air works its way in behind it as high pressure builds across the region by Tuesday night. A secondary trof axis rotates across the northern portion of the CWA Tuesday night and Wednesday. Best chances of any precip will be north of the CWA and we should only see clouds with this. Cool high pressure will start to build across the region Wednesday night and for the rest of the week. Cooler and more fall like temperatures are expected as well. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 210 AM Saturday... Areas of valley fog were beginning to form ahead of the pace from last night. EKN will vary in and out of IFR with brief periods of VLIFR while PKB could see MVFR mist. Other sites are likely to remain VFR but river valley fog will be near by. A cold front approaching from the north will bring clouds toward dawn, which will cause any fog across northern WV and east-central Ohio to dissipate early. The front will bring patchy high stratocu and low altocu Saturday and Saturday night, with a sprinkle or light shower possible, mainly Saturday afternoon. Any rain should not produce meaningful flight restrictions. The clouds Saturday night will likely hinder fog formation, which should not occur until after 06Z Sunday anyway. However, the stratocu may lower to MVFR across at least the northern WV mountains Saturday night. Surface flow will be light and variable ahead of the front overnight, and then become light northwest behind the front on Saturday, and then veering toward northeast Saturday night before going calm. Flow aloft will be light northwest. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High...except medium in fog overnight. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/location of fog forming tonight could vary. There may be a bit more fog at PKB, CKB, HTS or CRW. MVFR stratocu at EKN tonight may not happen or take longer to happen than currently forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 09/24/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M L M M M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... Low stratus possible Monday night, then morning valley fog possible next week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...TRM

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