Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 131456 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 956 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Snow showers coming to an end this morning. Another system arrives by late week with another chance for snow showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 950 AM Wednesday... Current forecast on track. No other changes are expected. As of 325 AM Wednesday... Still a few snow showers in the mountains this morning, but they will likely come to an end around daybreak as flow shifts from northwesterly to westerly. Generally, the amounts have not quite been as high as forecast and with snow showers tapering off we have dropped the winter weather advisory. Start the morning off very chilly in the mountains this morning, where a wind chill advisory remains in effect until early this afternoon. Temperatures will moderate through the day today as weak warm air advection pushes in as a warm front passes this afternoon. A weak clipper system will pass to our north tonight and drag a trailing cold front across the early during the early morning hours on Thursday. Cold air aloft moves in quite quickly with this system so any precipitation will likely fall as snow, but can`t rule out a brief period of some mixing. This system will mostly affect the Northern CWA with very little if any snow expected across Northeast KY, and Southern and South Central WV. There will be some upslope enhancement in the NW flow tomorrow morning, but short wave moves across fairly quickly and current thinking is that we should not see much more than 1 to 3 inches total.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 332 AM Wednesday... Any remaining snow should quickly come to an end as cold high pressure builds into the area. Another clipper system will pass by well to our north Friday into Friday night. with the system so far to the north, models indicate precipitation should be limited to our northern counties with some precipitation chances extending south along the mountains counties. Went with a model blend which resulted in daytime highs Thursday and Friday mainly in the 30s across the lowlands with some 20s across the highest elevations. Lows Thursday night will be quite cold as readings will generally be in the teens across the north and in the mountain counties with 20s elsewhere. It should be slightly warmer on Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 332 AM Wednesday... High pressure will briefly be in control with any remaining snow showers ending early on Saturday. A warm front will then sweep northeast Sunday night with a weak cold front pushing southeast on Monday. As a result, unsettled weather is expected to return Sunday into Monday. After a brief dry period Monday night, another cold front will push across the region on Tuesday bringing precipitation with it. Models suggest the moisture will be limited with any precipitation chances confined to our northern lowland counties as well as the West Virginia mountains. Once again, went with a model blend for temperatures. Expect a warming trend for the weekend into the beginning of next week with afternoon temperatures generally near normal for Sunday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 950 AM Wednesday... VFR conditions will continue through the day today, but clouds will be on the increase once again this afternoon and evening as clipper system will cross to our north tonight into Thursday morning. Mountains will be most likely to see some MVFR/IFR snow with this weak system and generally MVFR possible elsewhere through early Thursday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of ceilings and snow showers late tonight may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... Another round of snow is expected to last through Thursday morning, particularly across the north, with IFR conditions possible in heavier snow showers.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Wind Chill Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ518- 520-522>526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/MPK NEAR TERM...JS/MPK SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...JS/MPK

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