Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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393 FXUS61 KRLX 300642 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 242 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak cool front crosses today. Upper level ridge rebuilds for mid week. Cold front arrives Thursday with showers and storms.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1000 pm update...Showers and thunderstorms out ahead of a cold front are starting to push into the Ohio Valley. Expecting this line to follow instability axis and head southeastward through Jackson County Ohio and then into Gallia County over the next one to two hours. The cells will continue to weaken and latest meso guidance has the line fizzle out shortly after passing the Ohio Valley. I have updated PoP to reflect this trend over the next few hours. 730 pm update...Skies are clearing to the west so I went ahead and updated sky cover based on current satellite and trends. 545 pm update...Forecast remains mostly on track. Just made minor changes to temperatures based on current observations and trends. Also went ahead and updated PoP based on current precipitation coverage on RADAR. Previous Discussion... Unsettled weather across the CWA today...as moisture from tropical depression Bonnie overspreads the mountainous counties...and scattered thunderstorms have formed across parts of southeast Ohio...northeast Kentucky...and adjacent WV counties as a shortwave trough approaches from the west. Overall...much of the moisture associated with TD Bonnie is struggling to reach the ground on western side of the mountains...with thunderstorms across western zones slow moving and producing brief heavy downpours. Have continued the trend with thunder in the western zones today...and showers across the east associated with Bonnie. Showers...and perhaps an isold thunderstorm will continue tonight...mainly across southeast Ohio and adjacent KY and WV counties...as a surface cold front...entering Indiana at 18Z...moves east into the region. However...activity will be rather limited due to the late arrival of the front. Drier...and cooler weather across much of the area on Monday...although a slight chance for showers will still exist across the east depending on the timing/exit of the front. Next concern for tonight is whether or not fog will form. At this point...thinking best bet/location for fog development is across the north and west...where some partial clearing late tonight is possible. Still...patchy fog development cannot be totally ruled out in other locations...particularly where rain occurs. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Much of short term periods will feature mainly tranquil wx. Upper level heights will quickly build back over the region Tuesday into Wednesday before height falls work back in with the approach of the next wx maker. As for Tuesday and Wednesday...kept isolated mention of popup shra/tsra over portions of the northern mountains...otherwise rolling with a dry and warm forecast. I suspect there will be the daily morning does of dense river valley fog to contend with. As mentioned above...an amplifying trof will move into the upper Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. This will bring a cold front thru long about Thursday. This will bring a good chance of shra/tsra to the area and have coded up pops into the likely range.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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230 AM UPDATE... Model consensus is for a deeper push of drier air into the area later Friday and Saturday. Updated pops to reflect this drier trend taking hold. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... Another cold front approaches from the west Friday morning. Kept high chance PoPs lowlands and likely PoPs over elevations of 3000 feet and higher. Current track of remnants of tropical storm Bonnie approach from the southeast Thursday through Friday. Attm, seems that the showers will stay over the eastern mountains Wednesday and Wednesday night. An upper trough moves east across the Great Lakes region on Sunday. This second system is strong enough to drive a weak front across the area Sunday night and Monday morning. Went with a combination of the super blend and the all blend guidance for temperatures through the period.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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06Z Monday thru 06Z Tuesday... Til 12Z Monday. Quite variable conditions. Showers and isolated thunder will be confined to northeast Kentucky...extreme southeast Ohio and far southwest WV...affecting HTS before dissipating around 09z. Because of the showers or variable cloud cover...look for lifr fog to affect all the major terminals overnight except at BKW. Most of the fog will be river valley fog. After 12z...fog mixes out by 14z. Cold front crossing the area during the day may combine with diurnal heating to generate a few showers or perhaps a thunderstorm after 16z. These will be east of the Ohio river and not enough coverage to go with more than VCTS in CRW...CKB...EKN...BKW. Otherwise...VFR sct-bkn 4000-6000 feet agl outside of any convection. light and variable winds will become northwest behind the front at 5 to 8 kts. After 00Z basically vfr mostly clear. Any fog redevelopment will likely be after 06z. Winds will again drop off with loss of heating. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low overnight. Medium Monday. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Areal coverage and intensity of fog this morning may vary due to any showers or cloud cover. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 05/30/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M L L L L M M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... River valley IFR fog possible early Tuesday morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...MPK/SL SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...ARJ/30 AVIATION...JMV

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