Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KRLX 011810
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
110 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016
Cooler high pressure to end the work week. Weak upper level
system late Sunday/Sunday night and then an active pattern with a
couple systems passing the area next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM Thursday...
Clouds over eastern KY at time are eroding from the southwest, on
the leading edge of drier warm advection. This should get into
southwestern area later this afternoon as per current forecast.
Elsewhere clouds prevail. Winds a bit stronger in the ongoing cold
advection, so have increased them this afternoon.
As of 245 AM Thursday...
Radar images show showers dissipating along the eastern mountains as
the front exits the area. Satellite imagery shows an area of
clearing and dry air crossing the area this morning. Additional
low level clouds are anticipated later today. High temperatures
will range from the mid 40s lowlands to mid 30s higher elevations.
Lows tonight will drop into the lower 30s under cold advection.
Temperatures will be below normal during the day, but above normal
at night. High pressure will prevail through the period.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 AM Thursday...
High pressure dominates the short term period with with zonal
flow aloft. Northwesterly flow could keep some snow upslope snow
showers across the mountains into the weekend, but little
accumulation is expected. Temperatures will generally run slightly
below normal through the period.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 225 AM Thursday...
Not too much in the way of changes from the previous forecast and
although the models are coming into better agreement for Sunday
into Monday, there is still a large spread for next week. Overall
the pattern is looking to be quite active for next week, but
uncertain how significant any of these systems will be at this
Forecast confidence eroding from the southwest continues to grow
for Sunday into Monday with ensemble and operational guidance
aligning solutions on a weak or flattening upper trough passing
Sunday night into Monday. Starting to think that the chances for
precip with this system is decreasing and what was looking like a
potential heavy rain event yesterday is now looking like just
scattered light rain showers for the area. A blend of model
guidance gives chance PoP for this period and that seems adequate
for now seeing how the guidance has really pulled back on the QPF
with 00Z runs.
There after the guidance diverges with timing and intensity of a
couple of systems, but they do agree that an active progressive pattern
is upon us.
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z Thursday thru 18Z Friday...
As of 1245 PM Thursday...
Til 00Z Friday...
Lots of low level moisture will generally continue the clouds,
but with some breaks over southern portions of the area this
afternoon and evening. Look for general VFR ceilings, but
occasional MVFR ceilings mainly north and especially above 2000
feet in the WV mountains. Also look for mainly northern mountain
sprinkles/flurries that may locally create brief IFR conditions.
West winds this afternoon 10 to 15 KTS with higher gusts,
After 00Z Friday...
Generally VFR ceilings becoming prevailing MVFR low lands north
and east of a HTS-I16 line, with IFR above 2000 feet. West winds
diminishing by 03Z to 5 to 10 KTS.
After 12Z Friday...
For the low lands, any MVFR ceilings improving to VFR ceiling 3500-4000
feet by around 15Z. In the mountains, improving to VFR ceilings
below 2500 feet by 18Z. West winds 5 to 12 KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of category changes in clouds may
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H M L M M L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L M M M L
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in the higher mountain elevations through remainder