Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 250553 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 153 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Remaining hot and muggy today. Cold front sinks in late today lingering into Tuesday. Another system is slated for late week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Another hot and humid day is expected today, with heat indices around 100 across much of the middle Ohio River Valley and southwestern WV lowlands. Minor changes made to afternoon highs by blending in ECMWF MOS, but heat advisory criteria is still well covered by current advisory and no changes planned. NAM and GFS seem a bit bullish on QPF early this morning, so relied more on HRRR with POPs mainly holding off until after 15Z. Cold front approaching northwestern CWA late this afternoon, and have likely POPs developing around 20Z-21Z. That front should slowly sink south through CWA. Initially, sink an area of likely POPs south as well, but as we enter the typical diurnal minimum for convection late tonight, have POPs gradually waning into the chance range. Lots of instability available in this hot and humid airmass, so expect storms to grow quite tall. Not a whole lot in the way of shear for much of the day, but an increase to 20-30kts bulk shear is expected just ahead of the cold front. With this in mind, thinking organized area of strong to severe thunderstorms not likely, but isolated/pop up strong to severe storms possible. The best chance of this will be across the northern quarter of the CWA, near the front this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind would be the most likely threat as storms pulse up and down. Freezing level will be pretty high to get large hail, so it would take a persistent tall storm to produce hail. Precipitable water values also high late today into tonight -- topping out above 2 inches. Combined with the fairly weak flow, downpours are likely and could lead to localized water issues.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The front and associated upper level wave will slowly sag into the area Monday night with a good chance for shra/tsra. High pwats and relatively weak flow spells torrential downpours as the main hazard. This system still looks to meander about southern sections on Tuesday and the overall flow becomes more zonal and remains weak. So have the best chances for shra/tsra across S zones Tuesday with drier air taking hold across SE OH/N WV. A slight nudge further S on Wednesday but still sct mainly diurnally driven shra/tsra generally S of I64 corridor. The heat wave will give way to temps more close to normal for this time of year...but still a bit toasty. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... This front dissolves later on Thursday as the next s/w trof and surface low approach with another uptick in shra/tsra coverage by Friday. An amplifying upper level trof will settle in for the weekend with a cooler airmass taking hold. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Some river valley fog beginning to form, but do not think it will be quite as dense as last night. Still, included MVFR at most TAF sites, and IFR at EKN. Stayed pretty close to LAMP guidance on this. Fog should quickly dissipate around 12Z. A cold front approaches from the north today, so have some showers and thunderstorms in the forecast -- mainly this afternoon into tonight. Should individual cells approach TAF sites, restrictions would be needed. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing/intensity may vary from forecast. A shower or thunderstorm may directly impact a TAF site late today into tonight with brief IFR conditions. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 07/25/16 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L L L L M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M L L L L M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... Early morning IFR fog possible into mid week depending on lingering clouds.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>009-013>019-024>029. OH...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ075-083>087. KY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/30 NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...MZ

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