Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 290612 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 212 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure exits to the northeast today. High pressure with cooler and drier air for the weekend into next week. Moisture returns toward weeks end.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 200 AM Saturday... A quasi stationary frontal boundary remains in the vicinity while an upper level low pressure pass by and a sfc low pressure develops along it over WV. This scenario will producing numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms mainly across north central WV. These shower activity is moving very slowly depositing significant amount of water. Soils across northeast quadrant of WV remains nearly saturated and any additional rainfall will lead to flash flooding. A flash flood watch remains in effect for the northeast sections until 8 AM. Much drier conditions expected tonight as a high pressure builds from the west. Used a blend of the short term models along with previous forecast to generate temperature values.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 PM Friday... Eastern edge of forecast area still within the western reaches of the 500mb low over the Delmarva region. Moisture will be minimal, but did linger some POPs across the mountains into Saturday night. Otherwise cool high pressure dominates the short term forecast with lows in the 50s to around 60 and highs in the 70s and 80s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 250 PM Friday... Moisture gradually returns through the long term with POPs on the increase. A cold front and upper trough approach from the NW Thursday into Friday, providing the highest probability of showers and storms for the period. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 830 PM Friday... Rain will diminish across southern WV and the middle Ohio Valley overnight, as a low pressure center over northern WV moves east-southeast. moisture wrapping around the low will keep the rain going across northern WV. North to northwest flow wrapping around the low will bring in lots of low clouds, and areas of dense fog will form given the recent rainfall. This will result in mainly MVFR conditions with VFR breaks early on, deteriorating to IFR for much of the area overnight. As the low pressure center moves away from the area on Saturday, widespread IFR to low MVFR conditions will persist much of the morning, mainly on ceilings, with slow improvement to MVFR Saturday into Saturday afternoon. The Ohio River should improve to VFR early Saturday afternoon, with slow improvement to VFR across the WV lowlands Saturday afternoon. Light north to northwest surface flow overnight will increase a bit on Saturday, with some gusts to 15 to 20 kts on late morning / early afternoon mixing. These winds will die down quickly toward evening. Flow aloft will be light north overnight, and light to moderate northeast on Saturday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of IFR and MVFR conditions in rain across northern WV may vary overnight. Timing and extent of low clouds and fog will vary overnight into Saturday morning. Timing of fog lifting Saturday morning, and low clouds mixing higher during the day on Saturday, may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 07/29/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY L M M M M L L L H M M L HTS CONSISTENCY M M L L M M M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M L L M M L L L PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H M M M M H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L L L M M L AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... Expect valley fog most mornings, especially along the river valleys.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for WVZ030>032- 039-040-521>523-525-526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/MZ NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...

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