Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251734 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 134 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure remains in control through midweek. Cold front to bring cooler temperatures but limited precipitation Thurday. Another weak system by the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 130 PM Monday... High pressure dominates the weather the start the week. This will bring dry conditions with daytime highs well above normal. High clouds, thanks to Hurricane Maria will linger during this time. Morning river valley fog will be the only real weather concern.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 AM Monday... Although our upper ridge over the Ohio Valley will slowly break down, it will continue to dominate our weather with dry and warm conditions through mid week. Temperatures will continue well above normal with no rain. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 AM Monday... Finally a change in the pattern from a stagnant to a quite progressive one. A northern stream upper trough will push a cold front through the region from the northwest to start the period. However, with Maria forecast to stay east of our area, it will have the effect of robbing moisture from the cold front. Thus, all models have a significant but dry cold front coming across Thursday, with the main change being much cooler but still dry air for the end of the work week. Temperatures will go from well above normal to near normal. There will be a reinforcing shot of cooler air for the weekend under a cold upper trough. So while a light shower with this feature cannot be ruled out for the weekend, chances are not high enough to include at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 130 PM Monday... VFR will continue through the daytime hours into the early evening hours. River valley fog will develop once again. LIFR conditions are anticipated in this region. By sunrise, fog will lift. By mid morning, conditions will return to VFR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High today then low to medium overnight into tomorrow morning. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog depth and density might vary across the area. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... Morning valley fog possible through Thursday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JB/MC NEAR TERM...JB SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...JB

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