Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 011001 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 601 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THIS WEEK. DIURNAL HEATING COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD REMAINS IN CONTROL PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING. ANY SHOWER SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG FOR DEVELOPING DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME PLACES REACHING 90 DEGREES OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND TO THE MID 80S TO UPPER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WENT CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED ALL BLEND NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... WEAKLY FORCED PATTERN IS RELUCTANT TO CHANGE. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A VERY SIMILAR FORECAST. DID INCREASE POPS A BIT DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHOWING SIGNALS ON THE SREF. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER OHIO. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY SUMMER LIKE WEATHER PATTERN. WITH NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM THIS WILL KEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION SUPPRESSED WITH THE ONLY REAL CHANCE BEING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY. STILL DON/T SEE ANY TYPE OF FOCUSING MECHANISM AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONTINUED WITH THE WARMER SIZE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS AND DRY GROUND. IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN COULD BE CHANGING BY MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRY WEATHER TODAY. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG ALONG RIVER VALLEYS WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO VFR BY 12-13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHETHER OR NOT WILL HIT A SITE. IF A SITE GET RAINFALL...IT WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO TURN INTO FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LATE TONIGHT. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE DIURNAL CU AND ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 02Z WEDNESDAY. ANY SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THEIR PATH. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DEPTH OF FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 09/01/15 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING EARLY MORNINGS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...FB AVIATION...ARJ

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