Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 280542 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 142 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WILL ALSO TRY TO BETTER TIME THE CLEARING FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...LOWERING SKY COVER IN THAT AREA. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN THROUGHOUT, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WV MOUNTAINS WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SNOW ABOVE 3500 FT. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. H850 AIR BEHIND FRONT -2 TO -4 C WILL HAVE ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES, BEFORE ENDING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. USED CONSENSUS GUID THROUGHOUT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS ON. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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STRATUS DECK COVERS WV...EASTERN KY AND SE OH THIS MORNING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO EAST...PROVIDING SOME CLEARING INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT CLOUD AND SNOW RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 03/28/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M H M M H M M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M H M M M H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...KMC

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