Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 250548 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 148 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES MONDAY AND CROSSES MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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130 AM UPDATE... ONLY A FEW COSMETIC CHANGES PER LATEST TRENDS...BUT GENERAL FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. PRECIP CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND MOVING NORTHEAST SHOULD PUSH INTO THE FAR WESTERN ZONES AROUND THE 09Z TIME FRAME. 1030 PM UPDATE... MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH FRI...OTHERWISE FCST IS ON TRACK. ALSO INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH TWO OPPORTUNITIES...ONE IN EARLY MORNING THETA E ADVECTION AND A BETTER CHANCE...IF NOT LIKELIHOOD...IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALSO HAVE STRONGER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND GUSTS FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NT...UPPER 20S KTS. 8 PM UPDATE... SLOWED ONSET OF SHOWERS IN THE W UNTIL AFTER 06Z BASED ON LATEST MODEL TIMING INCLUDING THE NEAR TERMS. FCST OTHERWISE ON TRACK. PREV DISCN... WINDS HAVE PICKED UP SOME...WHICH HAS REALLY MIXED OUT THE MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS. AREA OF HIGH LEVEL SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS DRIFTING NE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER IOWA APPROACHES TONIGHT...AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE ERIE FRIDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING CWA. HAVE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY AS WELL...HELPING TO STRENGTHEN...OR AT LEAST MAINTAIN...THE SURFACE LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS...WHICH WOULD MAKE SENSE WITH A BIT STRONGER SURFACE LOW AND HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND INCREASED POPS. ALSO ADDED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDER ANTICIPATING SOMETHING MUCH LIKE THE FRONT EARLIER THIS WEEK WITH A CELL OR TWO THAT LIGHTS UP. BLENDED WARMER MET INTO LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH IS STILL A TOUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALSO TRENDED A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS/RAIN.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS HAVE THE FRONT AND SHORT WAVE EXITING EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY AND WEAKER FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING JUST MAINLY CLOUDS DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS. NOT MUCH TEMPERATURE CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THAT EXPERIENCED ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AGAIN IN THE 70S. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AGAIN UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT MAINLY DUE TO THE DRIER AIR AND LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST...ALLOWING FOR A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 70S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH WARMER...AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE AREA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WIND UP ACROSS OHIO BY TUESDAY. WITH THE WARM...UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...COMBINED WITH MULTIPLE WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...WILL SEE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PW VALUES BY TUESDAY WILL RISE TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO MAY GET SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. REMAINDER OF PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN COOL...AND UNSETTLED...AS UPPER LOW FORMS ACROSS AND CONTINUES TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. IN A REX BLOCK TYPE PATTERN. INCREASED POPS ACROSS CWA FOR THE PERIOD...AND TRENDED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. WITH THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN...SEVERAL INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT ANY POTENTIAL FOR WATER ISSUES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR INSTEAD. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRI BRINGING MVFR IN SHOWERS...WITH A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...FIRST IN THE MORNING...THEN WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF CROSSING DURING THE AFTERNOON CREATING A SECOND...BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE AREA...WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. SCATTERING OF LOW DECK WILL TAKE PLACE WEST TO EAST BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...06Z SAT. POINT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS FORMING POST-FRONT MAINLY IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AROUND THE 22Z-03Z TIME FRAME BEFORE BEGINNING TO SCATTER TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD...BUT CONTINUED LOW MVFR CIGS FOR NOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FLIGHT CAT CHANGES WITH SHOWERS MAY VARY...AS MAY THE GUSTY WINDS FRI. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 04/25/14 UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ/SL NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ/50 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...50

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