Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 250234 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1034 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system slowly moves through the Carolinas through Tuesday, and then fills as it moves up the middle Atlantic seaboard through Wednesday night. Next front Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 1030 PM Monday... Not a lot of change with continued scattered rain showers overnight. As of 130 PM Monday... The low pressure center passes south of the area into the Carolinas tonight and Tuesday. Rain showers will be decreasing in coverage and intensity mainly over the eastern mountains through tonight. Low level stratus will develop over the eastern mountains overnight. Models show boundary layer winds of 20-25 knots northeast mountains, with weaker winds at lower elevations. Went closer to the blend of all models for temperatures through the period.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Monday... High pressure and ridging aloft starts to build into the region late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temperatures will soar on Wednesday under the ridge, with highs climbing into the low to mid 80s under mostly sunny skies. Even the mountains will see temperatures climb into the upper 60s to low 70s with strong warm air advection at H850. Conditions will remain dry through at least 12Z Thursday, with all guidance holding off an approaching cold front until after the short term period. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 340 PM Monday... Guidance is in fairly good agreement with a cold front pushing into the Ohio Valley Thursday afternoon. The current timing of having the front approaching around max heating makes for higher probability for scattered thunderstorms. CAPE values are still looking fairly modest for the day and even with decent 0-6km bulk shear of around 40 knots. Still not thinking widespread severe weather at this point, but as previous forecast mentioned, thunderstorms with heavy downpours and maybe some damaging winds due to the decent shear may be possible. After brief period of high pressure for the end of the work week, things turn unsettled again for the weekend as warm front pushes through. Temperatures are likely to soar into the mid and possibly upper 80s. Current forecast guidance keeps the front in our vicinity through the weekend and will be the focus for more showers and thunderstorms. Finally, we will have to keep an eye to see how the forecast unfolds as we enter next week. Ensemble and operational guidance is hinting at an anomalous low pressure tracking into the Great Lake and dragging a strong cold front through on Monday. With this being day 7 of the forecast, there is still plenty to be sorted out, but will just mention the potential is there for a significant system. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 800 PM Monday... Generally VFR with MVFR mixed in - mainly in showers. Continued threat for MVFR tonight and into Tuesday morning. IFR possible in the mountains. Wind should keep BL mixy enough to mitigate fog. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of IFR low stratus along the eastern mountains could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 04/25/17 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M L M M M M M L L L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H M M M M M H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW/MPK NEAR TERM...ARJ/JW SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...JW

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