Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 310729 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 329 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON/18Z TIME FRAME TODAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON THE HRRR MODEL GIVEN THAT IT HAD INITIALIZED VERY WELL. TYPICALLY LIKE THE OUTPUT OF THIS MODEL WHEN THAT HAPPENS. ALSO...SINCE THE NAM MATCHED UP FAIRLY WELL...DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS PROGS PROVED VALUABLE IN THE PATTERN OF THE POP CONSTRUCTION THIS MORNING. THIS HELPED TO ADD SOME DEFINITION TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...PARTICULARLY OVER THE LOWLANDS SOUTH/EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MAY STILL BE HANGING ON IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z MONDAY. TEMPERATURES COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FOR TODAY IN THE PERIODIC RAIN. MAY NOT COME OUT OF THE 70S OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO. SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA COULD END UP WARMER THAN THE OHIO RIVER SITES. THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HANDS DOWN BETTER THAN THE OTHERS AND LEANED ON THIS...BUT ALWAYS A LITTLE HESITANT IN A DIFFERENT ATMOSPHERE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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MODELS AGREE OUR AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ON MONDAY. WHILE DYNAMICS WILL BE AT A MINIMUM...A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FOR A THREAT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS MONDAY...AND MORE SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY PRECIP FREE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT AFFECT US TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SO HIGH POPS PROGRESSING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT ARE IN ORDER. WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COOL FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...AND GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS RISE MODESTLY BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT MODELS STILL INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR A SHOWER OR TWO TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE 80S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO HEAT WAVES OR ABNORMALLY COOL SPELLS IN SIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS TUE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING SAT NIGHT...WITH SUBSEQUENT HIGHER POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. IN BETWEEN...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH DAY. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VERY COMPLEX TAFS TODAY GIVEN THE UNSETTLED SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS BRINGING SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TRIED TO USE AS MUCH PREVAILING SHRA AS POSSIBLE...AND ALSO TRIED TO PEG THE BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WITH PEAK HEATING TODAY UTILIZING THE PROB30 WORDING IN THE TAFS. THIS TIMING HAS A LOWER CONFIDENCE ATTACHED TO IT. AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE OF RAIN EXITS THE OHIO VALLEY...EXPECT AN MVFR STRATUS LAYER TO DEVELOP TOWARDS DAWN. THIS COULD LIMIT THUNDER CHANCES UNTIL THIS LAYER DISSOLVES...AND WILL MAINLY AFFECT PKB AND HTS. LATER TONIGHT...AS THE CEILINGS LOWER AGAIN AFTER THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE MOUNTAINS...EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER. AS THIS HAPPENS THE CHANCES FOR VISIBILITIES TO LOWER INCREASE AS WELL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF TSRA IS IN QUESTION. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 08/31/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY M M L L L L M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M L L L M M M H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L L L H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L L L M H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR IN DENSE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...26

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