Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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699 FXUS61 KRLX 221812 CCA AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Charleston WV 112 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in tonight, and holds on through Friday. An cold front crosses Saturday. High pressure Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 130 PM Wednesday... Strong high pressure will build from the west to provide dry conditions through the period. Models suggest very cold air at H850 of about minus 8C, will move over the area tonight. With clear skies, near calm winds, and associated radiation cooling, expect temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 20s. The low inversion at H850 lowers tonight as a subsidence inversion, as high pressure builds in. This brings into question timing of the breaking up of the stratocu later tonight. Went closer to the blend of all models for temperatures through the period. Valley temperatures will fall below ridgetop temperatures overnight where it clears. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 325 AM Wednesday... No significant changes necessary to the short term period. High pressure, with cooler, but dry weather will take hold for Thanksgiving Day and Friday, with temperatures topping out in the 40s to 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 325 AM Wednesday... Another progressive system will affect the region over the weekend. Rain and snow showers are expected to develop, particularly across the north, as a cold front sweeps across the region. After a brief lull in the precipitation later in the day Saturday and Saturday night, outside of upslope rain and snow showers across the mountains, a reinforcing short wave will bring another round of precipitation for Sunday, along with an additional shot of cooler air. Light accumulations are expected across the mountainous counties. Dry and cool weather for the start of next week, with moderating temperatures towards mid week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 105 AM Wednesday... Plenty of low level stratus persists over the area behind the cold front under northerly flow. With some mixing and dry air moving in, expect the status clouds to slowly dissipate providing pockets of sunshine. Improvements are foreseen mainly across the lowlands, and the southern WV mountains this afternoon. A subsidence inversion will be lowering tonight so, if ceilings persist, they will lower, and may go IFR. Otherwise, widespread VFR conditions will prevail. Gentle to moderate winds will diminish today, and become calm tonight, as high pressure builds across the area. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of lifting and break up of MVFR stratocu this afternoon and evening could vary. BKW and EKN ceilings could drop to near IFR tonight if the clouds do not break up. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EST 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 CRW CONSISTENCY L M M M M M L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M L L L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H M M L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY M H M M M M L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H M M M L L L CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M L L L L L L AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...ARJ

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