Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 190720 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 320 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak front Saturday possibly brings a shower or storm to northern areas. High pressure Sunday through Tuesday. Strong cold front mid week. Cooler and drier for the end of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM Saturday... Models have a rather flat short wave and weakening cold front crossing the area later today. Models indicate only a modest return flow of moisture ahead of this front, and more importantly weakening support aloft. The forecast soundings are rather unimpressive for instability, but cannot rule out a summer sun to help destabilize things a bit this afternoon. Will paint a chance of showers and possibly a storm across the north later today with this feature, as this will be the area of best support and moisture pooling. Elsewhere, will keep rain free. Any convection will rapidly decrease this evening with the loss of heating and as high pressure builds in tonight. Temperatures will be slightly above normal today, but not that humid.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 AM Saturday... Return flow sets up to bring the high dewpoints, which really had not fallen off much with the last cold front on Friday, to more tropical type levels again, and temperatures back towards 90F in the lowlands through Tuesday. Some isolated POPs exist during the short term in the mountains with generally zonal flow aloft. This will be the last of the heat in the foreseeable future with the next cold front pushing into the forecast area Tuesday night. Expecting a cumulus field to develop in the daytime heating on Monday for the eclipse. Should be more sun than clouds, but cannot foresee a completely clear sky with this issuance. Cloud coverage could be a bit more over the mountains. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 235 AM Saturday... Deep open wave pushes through the Great Lakes with an airmass changing cold front from Wednesday through the end of the week. Dewpoints should be back into the 50s in the Canadian airmass and lowlands largely in the mid to upper 70s for the lowlands Thursday and Friday. Overall trough pattern looks to persist over the eastern CONUS going beyond day 7. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 06Z Saturday thru 06Z Sunday... As of 200 AM Saturday... High pressure remainder of tonight will shift east saturday. A moisture lacking cold front will weaken as it crosses the area during Saturday, but possibly generating a few showers or a storm in the north. Overnight, mainly SCT clouds 4000-5000 feet AGL over eastern WV, and an increase of mid-high clouds over southeast Ohio by dawn. Otherwise, IFR river valley fog expected at EKN, CRW, and PKB 07Z-11Z. Light and variable to calm winds in river valleys. For Saturday, VFR. BKN mid clouds across the north half of the area with a shower possible, elsewhere mainly thin cirrus. Winds light and variable. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, except medium with fog. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, density, and location of fog overnight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 08/19/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... Dense river valley fog possible each morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JMV

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