Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 012303 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 703 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER PUSH EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW LINGERS MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE COLD FRONT THAT ROLLED INTO THE AREA LAST NIGHT DID NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...IT RETREATED A BIT IF ANYTHING. SHARP GRADIENTS IN TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...SKY COVER AND CLOUD HEIGHTS ACCOMPANY THIS SHALLOW BAROCLINIC ZONE. CONVECTION FIRED IN THE SUNSHINE OVER THE MOUNTAINS E OF THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD DIE DOWN / MOVE OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES E AND THE SUN SETS. A LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT E OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...TAKING SOME OF THE GRADIENT WITH IT. IT WILL ALSO TAKE THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS JUST W OF THE FCST AREA RIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW REMAINING W OF THE AREA...SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN OUR EASTERN UPSLOPE AREAS TUE. THE WARM...MOIST AIR WILL NOT BE THAT FAR TO OUR SE...AND THERE COULD BE ENOUGH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER IN OUR SW VA COUNTIES. TRIED TO DEPICT A TIGHTER BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS BUT STILL ENDED UP WITH MOSTLY A BLEND OF GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTING SHOULD KEEP US IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS. DUE TO THE NATURE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS...TIMING THE IMPULSES IS DIFFICULT MAKING FOR A TOUGH FORECAST. SO...EXPECT DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MORE PRONOUNCEMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS IN REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN A COLD FRONT DRIFTS SE AND PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. KEPT CLIMO TEMPS AND HIGHER THAN CLIMO POPS. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOW SHOWERS PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND THE PRECIPITATION. COLD FRONT...WHICH WAS LOCATED WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AT 18Z...IS IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SEEING IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...IMPROVEMENT ON TUE WILL BE RATHER SLOW. LIGHT N TO CALM WIND SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUE...TRENDING TOWARD SE BY TUE AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: OVERALL TIMING OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA WILL VARY. .AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... IFR IN LOW STRATUS CEILINGS POSSIBLE WED MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/JW NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...JSH/TRM

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