Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251033 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 633 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE EXITS FIRST THING THIS MORNING. A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SUNDAY. WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONTS CROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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630 AM UPDATE... FCST ON TRACK. PREV DISCN... HIGH PRESSURE EXITS FIRST THING THIS MORNING...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST. THE FRONT IS DRIVEN BY AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH THAT DIGS ESEWD THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLING INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SUN. THIS LEAVES THE FCST AREA ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE JET. WITH LITTLE INFLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED. CLOUDS INCREASE TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN REACHING THE GROUND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ONLY 20 PERCENT EVEN THERE. THE FLOW BECOMES ALIGNED OUT OF THE WNW TONIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES...WITH UP TO 50 KTS AT H85. THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PEAK GUSTS POSSIBLY OVER 40 KTS OVER THE VERY HIGHEST RIDGETOPS. BLENDED IN THE MET AND BIAS CORRECTED MAV FOR HIGHS TODAY...WHICH ARE CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED MOS BLEND AND PREVIOUS. KEPT LOWS TONIGHT WHICH ARE ALSO CLOSE TO BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE. DID SLOW THE FALL OF TEMPERATURES TONIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT GOES BY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER TENNESSEE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATER PART OF WEEKEND AS A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN DRY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH AN UPSWING IN DAYTIME HIGHS...ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY AFTER WARMER AIRMASS NUDGES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MAINLY STUCK WITH INHERITED TEMPERATURE VALUES WHICH WERE LEANING TOWARD THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE VALUES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... EXTENDED PERIODS BEGIN RATHER WARM AND END RATHER CHILLY. TUESDAY THE AREA WILL BASKING IN WARM SW FLOW AMID BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS. HAVE TENTATIVELY CODED UP MID 70S BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE. THE WARMTH DOES NOT LAST THOUGH...AS A STRONG BUT MOISTURE RESTRICTED COLD FRONT CROSSES MIDWEEK. APPEARS FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO RETREAT. SO...HAVE WEDNESDAY THE DAY FOR FROPA...WITH A SOMEWHAT NARROW FRONTAL ZONE OF SHRA MOVING THRU. AREA CLEARS OUT FOR A NICE BUT COOLISH DAY ON THURSDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING VOLATILITY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH MAGNITUDE OF UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE REGION...WHICH INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH HAS SOME ORIGINS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ANA IN THE E PACIFIC CURRENTLY. DID NOT SWAY MUCH FROM WPC TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY FOR NEXT WEEKEND. WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS EMERGE WHICH WOULD GIVE SOME UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR TO THE REGION. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE EXITS FIRST THING MORNING. THE FOG BURNS OFF BY 14Z...YIELDING A VFR DAY TODAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W MAY BRING SPRINKLES...EVEN A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...TO THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY...BEFORE LOWERING TO MVFR TONIGHT. NEAR AND W OF THE OHIO RIVER...THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP AS THE BASES LOWER...SO MVFR CIGS MAY NEVER BE REALIZED. LIGHT S TO SW SFC FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT W TO SW TODAY...AND THEN BECOME A BIT GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES. SFC FLOW WILL BE W TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT. SO...EVEN WHERE AND WHEN IT CLEARS...THERE OUGHT TO BE ENOUGH WIND AND DRY ADVECTION TO PRECLUDE FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LITTLE OR NO RAIN. LIGHT TO MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG NW BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FOG BURNING OFF THIS MORNING MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR SO. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS COULD VARY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES TONIGHT. TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR STRATOCU TONIGHT MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...TRM

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