Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 162326 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 726 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Much cooler into Wednesday, in the wake of a cold front that crossed last night. Dry high pressure with a warming trend for the latter part of the work week, and the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 720 PM Monday... Only made some minor changes to going forecast. Do have some concern than in areas where it rained...mainly across northcentral WV...fog could form and slow the temperature drop some. Dew points shot up into the lower 40s in the showers and have been slow to drop back. As of 1120 AM Monday... With the cold front way to our east, northerly flow will continue to bring colder air to the area. A sfc high pressure will build across the OH Valley, WV and the mid Atlantic states through the rest of the week providing dry and cold conditions through the period. Afternoon cu will be common on Tuesday. At night, clear skies, calm winds, dry dewpoints and cold temperatures will allow radiational cooling to drop temperatures below freezing across the northeast and central mountains, and widespread frost across the lowlands. Therefore, issued a Freeze warning for counties from Taylor county, south including Pocahontas and Randolph continuing south into Nicholas county. A Frost advisory has been issued for the rest of the area. Both headlines are from midnight through 10 am Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Monday... Surface high pressure dominates the period with very dry low- and mid-levels. Southern stream troughing and northern stream ridging on either side of the region holds off any precipitation- producing systems to start the period. A trailing cold front appended to the northern stream near the end of the period will struggle to reach the region as high pressure wins out. Clear skies and weak flow will allow for efficient radiational cooling overnight, especially Wednesday morning where frost is again likely in the northern mountains and possible in the northern lowlands. Wednesday`s cool start will drop dew points and thus afternoon RHs, leaving mountainous areas in the mid- to upper-20`s and other locations in the mid- to lower-30`s of percentage RH. Thursday`s RH values will be only modestly higher given slightly lower afternoon high temps with the aforementioned cold front washing out over our area. Light winds limit the fire threat in spite of increasingly dry fuels. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday... High pressure builds behind the aforementioned cold front, centers over the CWA Friday afternoon, and gradually shifts eastward off the Mid-Atlantic coast with the approach of an amplified long wave near the end of the period. The warming trend will continue as low-level flow gains a more southerly/southwesterly component, though moisture beyond the boundary layer remains scarce. The next weather-maker in this region is currently forecast to encroach from the West Sunday night into Monday with an elongated cold front running North/South, bisecting the CONUS. A chance of shower activity of some variety exists in this time range. && .AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 720 PM Monday... Generally, have very dry air in place across the forecast area which will allow temperatures to drop quickly late this evening. Will be walking a fine line between frost or fog formation. Think fog will form over warm water in rivers and streams, but not be able to drift too far off the actually water surface. So went with some MVFR fog at PKB, HTS and CRW with this scenario. CKB and EKN got some rain earlier today which throws a wrench in things and confidence is lower here. Opted to include IFR at EKN right on the river, with MVFR at CKB. A few cumulus may form tomorrow, however widespread VFR expected after and fog dissipates. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may be more widespread if temperatures do not drop as fast resulting in less frost. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L L M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... Dense valley fog possible each morning this week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ031-032-039-040-519>526. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>030-033-034-515>518. OH...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. KY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL/MC NEAR TERM...ARJ/MZ SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...MZ

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