Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 260735 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 335 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure holds through Wednesday. Strong cold front crosses Thursday, and another possibly on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 130 AM Wednesday Update...A large portion of the CWA is seeing overcast midlevel clouds from I64 to Northern West Virginia and this has helped keep temperatures from dropping off like previously forecast. Because of this I will most likely just cancel the frost advisory for areas where the cloud cover should persist through daybreak. Will end up doing this with the issuance of the morning forecast package in the next 1 to 2 hours. 645 PM update, no changes necessary As of 215 PM Tuesday... High pressure over northern Ontario dominates the sensible weather with a dry Canadian airmass that is providing broad diurnal temperature trends. After a cold start this morning, temperatures have climbed to near 60F as of this issuance in the lowlands, and expect another sharp drop tonight back into the 30s, with upper 20s possible in some of the deeper mountain valleys. A warm front is bringing mid/upper level moisture to the Tug Fork Valley area, which will slowly drift to the northeast through the evening and tonight. Despite the less than perfect conditions for frost, have issued an area wide Frost Advisory tonight and a Freeze Warning for the northeast mountains. Valleys will be affected more than the hill tops. Meanwhile, a frontal system approaches from the mid Mississippi Valley turning the flow back to a southerly component later in the day Wednesday. The cold front and open wave aloft will be covered in the short term portion of the forecast. For the near term, no rain is expected. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 335 AM Wednesday... A sfc low pressure system will cross the southern Great Lakes region Thursday. An associated cold front will pass over our area Thursday with showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Very little bouyancy, deep layered shear less than 35 knots and precipitable water about 1.14 inches indicate a weak environment for storms to form. Curious that models bring a vorticity maxima ahead of the pcpn. So, kept likely PoPs and a mention of afternoon thunder mainly over the eastern half of the area through Thursday evening. A similar clipper takes the same track passing northwest of the area with another cold front by Sunday. There is going to be a warming trend for the following few days starting with lows in the 40s Thursday night and in the 50s Friday night with showers lingering over the northeast mountains. Highs can climb up into the upper 70s lowlands, ranging to 60 degrees highest peaks.
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As of 335 AM Wednesday... The weather remains unsettled in the long term with a series of upper level disturbance possible along the upper level jet. Went with the blend of models for temperature, tweaking down PoPs when is dry under high pressure.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 140 AM Wednesday... Have removed IFR fog from EKN with the issuance of the 06Z TAFs as midlevel clouds have become entrenched over the area. Currently CRW is on the edge of this cloud deck and depending on if the deck shifts southward will determine if we see IFR fog once again this morning. As of 130 AM the fog is confined to the Elk River Valley, but as long as the cloud cover stays to the north we should be able to see IFR fog at CRW before daybreak. All other sites should remain VFR and overall it looks like a decent day with a front moving in early Thursday morning. For now I have not included any impacts from this front in the TAFs, as it appears that precip may just be entering the Ohio Valley around 06Z tomorrow. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium through morning. High thereafter. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may not form at CRW due to mid deck of clouds. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 10/26/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... Brief IFR possible in showers Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>040. Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for WVZ046-047. OH...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087. KY...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30/26 NEAR TERM...MPK/SL/26 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...MPK/SL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.