Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 221748 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 130 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD BE TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY...PULLING DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FOR THE REGION. EVEN SO...WITH UPSLOPE WIND FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING...SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT IN THE WV MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...AND EVEN MORE ON THURSDAY. IN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE AS IT TENDS TO RADIATE TOO MUCH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOWING A SHORTWAVE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AT H500 BRINGING A VORTICITY MAXIMA EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD BRING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS DONT BRING MUCH IN QPF FIELDS...THE SREF BRINGS POPS UP TO 20 PERCENT OF RAIN. THEREFORE...EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS AT THIS TIME ON FRIDAY. AS THE TIME APPROACHES...MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE GAINED ON THIS FEATURE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD AFTERNOON THROUGH THE PERIOD. WENT GENERALLY WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MOISTURE STILL APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CREATING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND LEADING TO A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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STRATUS DECK WILL GRADUALLY RAISE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE A FEW RESTRICTIONS IN THE WV MOUNTAINS OR NORTHEASTERN WV. THE STRATUS DECK WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...BUT CLEAR SOME FROM THE WEST. THE DECK WILL RAISE AND BECOME MORE OF A CUMULUS DECK BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THINNING CONSIDERABLY FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY. TIMING OF STRATUS RAISING COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...RPY

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