Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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242 FXUS61 KRLX 260731 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 331 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure through today. Strong cold front may produce severe storms Thursday. Heavy rain possible especially north Thursday night into Friday. High pressure for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Wednesday... Another nice day on tap for the region as High pressure remains in control. We`ll start the day with patches of low clouds and fog, then transition to mostly sunny skies with just some high cirrus from storms over the northern plains. It will be warmer and more humid than yesterday with both high temperatures and dew point temperatures generally 3 to 6 degrees warmer than Tuesday. Cloud cover will start to increase tonight as high pressure slides off the east coast and the next low pressure system starts to approach from the west. As a result, expect considerably less radiational cooling overnight tonight which will cut down on the localized fog and low cloud development. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 315 AM Wednesday... Models are in general agreement with cold front pushing through with embedded waves Thursday and exiting late Friday or early Saturday. Southerly flow out ahead of this system will increase moisture over the area. With increased moisture and instability SPC and WPC has the entire area in a slight risk for severe storms and excessive rain respectively. The only conundrum will be timing differences between the models. This could enhance or limit the severity and rain amounts. A Flash flood watch may be necessary across our northern zones as FFG guidance values are 1.5 inches or less in 1 hour there. In any case, this system bears watching.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 315 AM Wednesday... Low pressure and wraparound rains exit on Saturday, with dry and cool high pressure taking control over the region for the rest of the weekend and into next week. Very pleasant temperatures and low humidity will be the norm this weekend and into early next week, with a gradual increase in temperatures and humidity later in the week.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 AM Wednesday... VFR conditions will prevail over most parts, except along river valleys where dense fog is expected. IFR/LIFR visibilities in fog starting at most sites between now and 10Z with the exception of BKW that should stay VFR. Any fog or low stratus will lift and dissipate after sunrise. Once that happens, VFR conditions should remain through the forecast period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog this morning could vary by an hour or two. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 07/26/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H M L L L L L M H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L M H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H M L L L L L L H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L M H H H M AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... Brief periods of IFR conditions with thunderstorms likely Thursday into Friday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/99 NEAR TERM...99 SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...ARJ

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