Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 220158 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 958 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front crosses tonight. High pressure Wednesday and Thursday. Warm front Friday morning. Unsettled with waves of low pressure over the weekend into early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 950 PM Tuesday... Updated PoPs to better reflect radar trends and mPing reports. As of 350 PM Tuesday... Posted a freeze warning for two Kentucky counties that should have lows in the 30-32 F range tonight. As of 210 PM Tuesday... Low stratus will continue to gradually erode through the remainder of the afternoon. Attention turns to a more potent cold front to cross later this evening. Near term and hi res models continue to show a band of -shra with this front. Current thinking is this may be a bit overdone but will still give some nod to low pops across the northern lowlands and northern mountains. Across the high terrain this would be a few hours of -sn in the air. CAA ensues, lasting into Wednesday. Normally we would look for some CAA stratocu to form but models are really dry in the low levels. As such, expect abundant sunshine, though a bit chilly for this time of year.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 215 PM Tuesday... A broad high pressure system will extend from its center over the Great Lakes region, south and east into the OH Valley and WV through Wednesday night. This position keeps the area under northerly flow and cold advection Wednesday night. Models show H850 temperatures around minus 7C Wednesday night. Together with clear skies and expected radiational cooling, temperatures will drop into the mid 20s southern coal fields ranging into the teens higher elevations northeast mountains. This will pose another hard freeze Wednesday night through Thursday morning. The high pressure moves east across the eastern sea board to bring south southwest flow over the local area by 00Z Friday. Then, a relatively moist and warm air mass will begin to move over the region allowing a warm front to spread some rain Thursday night and Friday. Temperatures on Friday could reach the mid to upper 60s lowlands, ranging into the low 50s higher elevations. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 215 PM Tuesday... The atmosphere will continue unsettled while in the warm sector Thursday night and Friday. Convection right ahead of a cold front will spread from west to east Saturday and Saturday night. The actual cold front crosses Sunday as the parent low pressure center moving over the OH Valley and WV. Have likely PoPs but they look slower than previous forecast. Went straight with the blend of all models for temperatures through the period. Warmer temperatures expected for the weekend. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 1000 PM Tuesday... VFR conditions for now. A cold front will cross the area this evening with brief -shra across the northern sites with a period of MVFR postfrontal stratocu also possible. VFR conditions Wednesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: More MVFR possible after front, but opted to keep out of TAFs. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 03/22/17 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... IFR possible in rain Saturday night and Sunday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for KYZ101-102. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ/JW SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...JW/30

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