Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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883 FXUS61 KRLX 112337 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 637 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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620 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. WENT ON LOWER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BUT DID NOT HIT THAT TOO HARD DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY LATER ON TONIGHT ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE THIS HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST BY FRIDAY...WHICH ALLOWS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE HERALDING AN ARCTIC FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THE DISTURBANCE AND BEST FORCING LOOKS TO TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY. WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS LIMITED MOISTURE...SNOW TOTALS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE THRU THE DAY FRIDAY LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH THE HEAVIEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT PASSES AND NORTHWEST FLOW WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS...WE LOOK FOR THIS TO TRANSITION INTO MAINLY AN UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN EVENT...BUT WITH THE BEST UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS OCCURRING MAINLY AFTER THIS PERIOD. THUS...OUTSIDE THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL FRIDAY...WE LOOK FOR GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH IN MOST OF THE REMAINING LOW LANDS. IN THE MOUNTAINS...WE HAVE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE TO UPSLOPE. GIVEN ALL THIS...SNOW TOTALS WILL BE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO NO HEADLINES. LOOK FOR FRIGID TEMPS TONIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY REACHING CLOSER TO THE 30 DEGREE MARK AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE TO START WITH...BUT A SLUG OF MOISTURE GETS USHERED IN ON ZONAL FLOW INCREASING POPS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY COLD FOR SNOW WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE LOWLANDS AND 2-5 IN THE MTNS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHISKS OFF TO THE EAST BRINGING ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE UPSLOPE SNOW. THEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE HUNKERS DOWN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH 850 TEMPS DOWN TO -22 C. PROBABLY WILL NEED ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILLS FOR THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AND MAYBE FOR SNOW TOO. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE GRADUALLY TRYING TO COME TOGETHER. SERIES OF POTENT WAVES TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. FIRST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS WAVE MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES REGION...SPREADING MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL INTO THE REGION. THE SECOND MORE POWERFUL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. TOWARDS THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER AREA IS LOOKING AT AN ALL SNOW EVENT...OR A WINTRY MIX AT TIMES. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE A WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WHICH OF COURSE WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. WITH THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP A MENTION OUT OF THE HWO FOR ONE MORE DAY...AND ALLOW FOCUS TO REMAIN ON SYSTEMS AND IMPACTS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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ALL TERMINALS HAVE BECOME VFR THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL GENERALLY ARRIVE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER 16Z FRIDAY...RAPIDLY BECOMING MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW AS UPPER DISTURBANCE RACES EASTWARD...WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVING IN THE MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THAT COULD BRING PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SNOW TOMORROW IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND MOVE MOVE IN SOUTHERN AREAS EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY END QUICKER THAN FORECAST AND COULD POSSIBLY DROP CIGS/VIS LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EST 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/JW/SL NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...MPK

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