Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 050546 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 146 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WARM FRONT SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1015 PM UPDATE...COLD FRONT NEARING THE OHIO RIVER AS OF 02Z...GRADUALLY MOVING EAST. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO UPDATED HOURLY TREND INTO TONIGHT BUT LOWS STILL LOOK PRETTY GOOD. HRRR CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DECENT POP GUIDANCE. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE TRI- STATE OVERNIGHT...BUT IN REALITY SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF DRY BEFORE THE WRAP-AROUND ARRIVES WITH THE UPPER LOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MODELS PRETTY MUCH ON THE SAME PAGE NOW WITH THE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY TONIGHT...SLOWLY SWEEPING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL LATER TONIGHT ON THE LEE SLOPE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TURNS SEWD THROUGH EASTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO POP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY LOW FREEZING LEVEL...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS. A MORE CONCENTRATED BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SMALL HAIL AGAIN POSSIBLE. CAT POPS WITH THIS PRECIP BAND. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS COMING MORE IN LINE...SPECIFIC TIMING WILL STILL BE WITH THE SLOWER END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. USED THE NAM TO TRY TO INCORPORATE SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION DETAILS. BUT ONCE WE LOSE THE HEATING...THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC INSTABILITY HAS THUNDER POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW SUGGESTS A DRY SLOT WILL WORK INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE PRECIP WITH THE HANGING FRONT AND WRAPAROUND SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM THE UPPER LOW INCREASING OVER THAT AREA. SO...WILL DECREASE POPS TO CHANCE IN THE WEST FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT...BUT KEEP CAT POPS IN THE EAST. FOR THURSDAY...THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WORKING WESTWARD IN THE WRAPAROUND FLOW OF THE UPPER LOW...BUT WITH SOUTHEAST OHIO TRENDING TO IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPS ARE VERY MARGINAL FOR ANY SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY MORNING...SO WILL OMIT SNOW THERE. WHILE PW`S ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...THE WEAK FLOW AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF SHOWERS AROUND THE UPPER LOW LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY GIVE SOME CONCERN FOR WATER PROBLEMS. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION FOR THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT UNTIL THE SPECIFIC SETUP OF PRECIP BANDS BECOMES CLEARER. TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... GENERALLY STAYING AWAY FROM THE NAM TO END THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITHOUT ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS EVOLUTION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. WARM FRONT IS QUICK TO FOLLOW THE EXIT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND WILL BRING IN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE. 850MB TEMPERATURES SHOW A TIGHTLY PACKED GRADIENT WITH THIS WARM FRONT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A QUICK BURST OF WARMING IN THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH THE COLD FRONT...INCREASING IN COVERAGE INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. GOING CONSERVATIVE WITH THE QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE EXITING OF THE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL ONLY HAVE MODEST AMOUNTS ON THE FRONT END OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. NO SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... FOR THE EXTENDED...THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE BEGINNING WITH THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BARELY CLEAR THE SOUTHERN ZONES OF THE CWA...AND THEN LIFT BACK AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. IN THE END...WILL NOT SEE ANY REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OF AIRMASS...WITH FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE ACCUMULATION OF RAIN THROUGH THE 7 DAY PERIOD...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...WATER CONCERNS ARE RELATIVELY LOW. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING REGION FOLLOW BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THROUGH TODAY. A DRY SLOT IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THINK THIS WILL CAUSE HTS TO SCATTER OUT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW ARRIVE AROUND SUNRISE. EVERY OTHER LOCATION WILL SEE MVFR TO EVEN IFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHEN THE CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR THIS MORNING AND THEN LIFT BACK TO MVFR LATER IN THE DAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF WRAPAROUND SHOWERS AND IFR CONDITIONS MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 05/05/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M L L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M L L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M L L L L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M L L L L L L L AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH UPPER LEVEL COULD CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...MPK

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