Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 280757 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 357 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH WARMING TREND TODAY INTO SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... RIVER VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO FORM...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. BESIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON POPUP SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS...NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE TO TALK ABOUT TODAY...SO ENJOY ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE AREA...TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES IN THE MOUNTAINS. WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPER BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY...EXPECT THE HOTTEST DAY ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S LOWLANDS RANGING INTO THE MID 70S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90 DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... EXPECT IFR FOG TO FORM IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LINGER THROUGH 13-14Z. THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BE LESS INTENSE THAN THIS MORNING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG 06Z TO 13Z FRI COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 08/28/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H EKN CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L M M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H M L L L L H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M L L L L H H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/JW NEAR TERM...KTB/JW SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...KTB/JW

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