Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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388 FXUS61 KRLX 221808 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 208 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure dominates through early next week. Cold front approaches middle to end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 205 PM Friday... Surface and upper level ridging to the north continues the quite, but unseasonably warm weather, with dense valley fog once again forming overnight, and then burning off around mid morning. Opened up diurnal spread with guidance suggesting slightly lower lows tonight, and the MET higher for highs Saturday. Those MET values seemed high, but opted to go just below 90 across the lowlands. There should be less cumulus and cirrus around, and the morning inversion is progged to be more shallow, compared with this morning. This, with light downslope flow, should favor strong heating for late September,
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Friday... Significant wx nil through the short term with deep upper trough anchored over the Great Basin and downstream elongated ridge oriented northeast to southwest. 850mb temps in the 18C vicinity keep well above normal temperatures going through the weekend and into early next week before heights start to gradually lower. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 230 AM Friday... Upper ridge begins to break down and we will lose the barotropic atmosphere that has dominated for the better part of a week. Expecting a cold front to work its way through the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley, driven by the digging upper trough over the Great Lakes for the day 7 time frame. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 205 PM Friday... High pressure spells VFR conditions outside of VLIFR river and valley fog 08Z to 14Z tonight, starting an hour or two earlier in the deeper valleys in and near the mountains. The fog forecast is less certain at BKW, but fog there should be no worse than this morning. Surface flow will be light northeast by day and calm at night, while northeast flow aloft this afternoon becomes light east tonight, and remains light east on Saturday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing and density may vary early Saturday. Brief IFR forecast at BKW may not occur. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... VLIFR in valley fog each morning through Wednesday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...TRM

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