Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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582 FXUS61 KRLX 191015 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 615 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure through most of this week, with warm afternoons and cool nights. Weak upper level impulse today into Wednesday, with showers possible. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 615 AM Tuesday... Did a quick update on the clouds, as the broken/overcast deck is arriving a couple hours earlier than previous forecast. As of 130 AM Tuesday... Generally quiet weather continues with weak high pressure at the surface. We do have an upper level shortwave trough and very weak cold front approaching from the west. This is already pushing some mid to high clouds in from the west. The cold front looks to wash out as it reaches CWA, but with some moisture pooled along it and the help of the upper level forcing, have isolated to scattered showers and storms in the middle Ohio River Valley today. Models are showing potential for showers tonight as well as the axis of the upper shortwave trough drifts through. This feature currently has showers and storms with it across IL/IN, however concerned the washed out cold front will no longer have the umph to keep things going after the sun set. Still...maintained some isolated showers overnight for least until higher res models add their input. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Tuesday... An upper level wave will cross the area Wednesday bringing chances for showers or thunderstorms. A cold front will stall or dissipate just northwest of the area. Diurnal heating and unstable conditions aloft will allow thunderstorms to develop at least over elevated terrain. Drier conditions expected Thursday and Thursday night under high pressure. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 315 AM Tuesday... High pressure will be in control of the weather conditions in the extended forecast. Expect weak flow, mostly clear skies, and foggy mornings. Afternoon convection on elevated heat sources will also be possible. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 615 AM Tuesday... Any lingering fog will dissipate 13Z-14Z with VFR expected today. Expecting some isolated to scattered showers across Ohio River Valley but not enough confidence to include even a VCSH mention at this time. A bit more uncertain on fog potential tonight due to clouds and showers in the area. Used a blend of the hi-res NAM and LAMP for visibility dense fog across the north where fewer clouds are expected. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need to add a shower mention along and west of I-77.Timing and density of fog may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M L M H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L M H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M M H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... IFR in valley fog possible each morning this week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...MZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.