Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 100709 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 309 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AIR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ADJUSTED SKIES AND WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... WITH THE AXIS OF THE BOARD 500 MB TROF STILL IN THE MIDWEST AND MARGINAL 850 MB MOISTURE REMAINING...WE COULD STILL SEE PATCHES OF CLOUDS AT 4 TO 7 THSD FT REFORM OVERNIGHT IN AREAS NOT CLEAR. THIS COMPOUNDS THE FOG FORECAST. DEW POINT FRONT STILL REMAINS ACROSS CWA WITH DRIER OHIO IN SOUTHEAST OHIO. FIGURING ON FOG FORMING FIRST IN THE SOUTHERN WV VALLEYS AND EVEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU WITH INCLUDES THE OAK HILL/BECKLEY VICINITY. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WETTER GROUND IN THE NORTH...STILL HAS US FORECASTING FOG LATER OVERNIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL AND TYGART RIVER VALLEY. FOG NOT AS WIDESPREAD IN SOUTHEAST OHIO...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES COULD STILL FORM SOME PATCHES. THE AXIS OF THAT 500 MB TROF DOES NOT GO EAST OF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT...SO KEEPING SOME MINIMAL POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES APPEARS TO A GOOD IDEA...AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THROUGH GREAT LAKES...WITH MID OHIO VALLEY FALLING UNDER WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG HPC MODELS IS THAT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES NOTED IN HOW MUCH DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. RELIED MAINLY ON SREF PROBABILITY FORECAST FOR POP FIELDS...WITH ISOLD TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS DURING EACH AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... USED THE ECMWF...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR SUNDAY...AS A SYSTEM PROVIDES DECENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RELIED ON THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS WOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT THOUGH EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CALM FLOW AND LARGE POCKETS OF CLEARING SKIES COULD ALLOW IFR DENSE FOG FORMATION MAINLY ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SITES SUCH AS EKN AND BKW FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. OTHER SITES LIKE CKB...AND CRW COULD DEVELOP IFR DENSE FOG LATER AFTER 09Z THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z THURSDAY. ANY IFR CONDITION WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY TO WIDESPREAD VFR AROUND SUNRISE. EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THURSDAY...IN RESPONSE OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEST VIRGINIA AROUND 00Z FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL FORM AT 4 TO 7 THSD FT MAY IN PLACES EVEN DURING THE LATE NIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION ALONG THE DEEPER VALLEYS. OTHERWISE...HAVE MOSTLY VFR AFTER 13Z THURSDAY...EXCEPT SOME 2 THSD FT CEILINGS MAY FORM AFTER THE VALLEY FOG LIFTS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND BKW VCNTY BEFORE LIFTING INTO 3 TO 4 THSD FT AGL SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS AFTER 14Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND THICKNESS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT 05Z THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 07/10/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H M L L L L L M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M L L L L L H H M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H M L L L L L M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L M H H H H AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/26 NEAR TERM...KTB/ARJ SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...ARJ

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