Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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959 FXUS61 KRLX 190600 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 200 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT CROSSES FIRST THING TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. IT MAT BE TEMPORARILY THWARTED BY A WAVE ON THURSDAY...BEFORE BUILDING IN IN ERNEST ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS PER LATEST RADAR IMAGES. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES TO OUR FAR SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF WV AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST VA...MOVING EAST AROUND 15 KNOTS. BEHIND THIS LINE RADAR LOOKS DRY EVEN ALONG THE UPCOMING COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...KEPT HIGH CHANCE WITH THE SHOWERS AND REMOVE CHANCES BEHIND IT. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... 815 PM UPDATE... FINE TUNED POPS TO KEY IN MAINLY ON BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER AS OF 00Z. THE LINE CLOSER TO THE FRONT WILL MOSTLY FALL APART BEFORE REACHING THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER OVERALL QUICKLY WANES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES/MIXES THROUGH TUE MORNING. PREV DISCN... SCATTERED POPCORN CONVECTION IS BEING SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS MOIST AIR MASS HEATS UP IN BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION NOTED OVER EASTERN KY AND SOUTHERN OH...AS WEAK VORT FEATURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IT APPEARS THE LATEST RAP RUNS HAVE A FAIR HANDLE ON THE OVERALL MASS FIELDS AND THE PROGRESSION OF FEATURES ACROSS TONIGHT. USED A RATHER BROAD BRUSH APPROACH TO COVER POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. HAVE FRONT CROSSING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. SPEED UP TIMING SLIGHTLY...BY AN HOUR OR TWO...NOT MUCH TO REALLY MAKE A CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. FOR TEMPS...WILL SEE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TUESDAY OVER TODAYS HIGHS AS COOLER AIR MASS MOVES IN...WITH DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... ZONAL FLOW FOR THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A DRY FORECAST. DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AROUND THE 520+ LOW OVER NEWFOUNDLAND. WENT MAINLY WITH ALL BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING THEM BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY...MIGRATES EAST AND TRIES TO STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL LEAD TO A POTENTIALLY MESSY FORECAST FOR THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. HAVE CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS EXPECT MOISTURE TO BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH. THERE REALLY ISN/T ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT TO FOCUS ON TO TIME THESE EVENTS. WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN AREA OF CLEAR SKIES BETWEEN THE BATCH OF SHOWERS CROSSING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ATTM AND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL OH. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...THIS AREA OF CLEARING COULD ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING TO REACH SATURATION FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS FORMATION OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...CODED IFR CEILINGS AT CKB...EKN AND HTS WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS ALREADY ZERO. OTHER SITES COULD EXPERIENCE MVFR CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHEAST OH AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING. SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG ITS PATH WITH NO PCPN. THE MORNING STRATUS WILL THEN MIX HIGHER BEFORE MIXING OUT ALTOGETHER BY MID MORNING. CALM FLOW EXPECTED AT MOST SITES OVERNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT W TO NW ON TUESDAY. IT MAY STRENGTHEN AND BECOME JUST A BIT GUSTY TUE AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG AND STRATUS FORMATION OVERNIGHT AND BREAK UP TUE MORNING MAY VARY. THERE MAY BE MORE IFR THAN FCST ON EITHER...ESPECIALLY E OF THE OHIO RIVER. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 05/19/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H M H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H M M M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H M L M L L L H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... FOG/LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TUE NT INTO WED MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN OVERNIGHT THU NT INTO FRI MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/KMC/TRM NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM SHORT TERM...FB LONG TERM...FB AVIATION...ARJ

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