Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 131050 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 650 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure into Monday. Turning unsettled for most of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 445 AM Sunday... Sunshine after early morning fog burns off. Clouds should be scarce as dry air aloft moves in. Overall area remains under high pressure today, so should be a rain-free and mostly sunny and warm day. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 AM Sunday... High pressure across the eastern Great Lakes Monday and Tuesday will keep the main storm track and the bulk of the moisture generally south of the forecast area. However it is close enough to maintain some POPs across the southern coal fields and mountains with several 500mb disturbances moving through. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 AM Sunday... Generally unsettled pattern becomes established over forecast are for the long term. Moisture returns on Wednesday ahead of a surface low pressure system moving through the Plains Wednesday and Thursday. With uncertainty in the synoptic pattern late this week into the weekend generally kept POPs in the chance range. Did include some likely POPs Friday afternoon in the I-79 corridor -- where both GFS and ECMWF are printing out QPF as a surface low passes to the north. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 645 AM Saturday... Valley fog under high pressure with calm winds. Fog dissipation should occur by 14Z with VFR thereafter at most locations. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog burn off may vary across the area. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY L M L M H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M L M H H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z MONDAY... IFR valley fog possible overnight Sunday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/JW/MZ NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...JW

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