Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 212322 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 722 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak disturbance this afternoon with a shower possible north. Tropical moisture to bring heavy showers and thunderstorms to end the work week. Cooler to start next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 645 PM... Showers that formed across southeastern Ohio this evening have drifted southward into parts of West Virginia, and increased pops across these areas for the next few hours to reflect this. As of 210 PM Wednesday... Weak mid level vort max crossing northern portions of our area this afternoon and evening will bring a few showers and possibly a storm north. As this upper feature moves away this evening and with loss of heating, most convection will end. East to west frontal system dropping southward will stall just to the north of our area early tonight and then shift back north as a warm front late tonight and Thursday. Just a slight chance of a shower far north tonight vicinity of the front. As this front retreats later tonight and Thursday, tropical moisture will be on the increase as deeper southerly flow increases, and included a little haze in the forecast for mainly river valleys later tonight. For Thursday, models have PW`S reaching above 2 inches on increasingly deep southerly flow from the tropical system currently near the Gulf Coast. Models agree a significant piece of energy breaks off from the tropical system on Thursday, and this piece will lift northward well ahead of the tropical system itself. This will bring an organized area of showers and thunderstorms into southern portions of our area by early Thursday afternoon, and into northern portions of our area around days end. The bulk of the rain from this piece of energy will be just after this period. Temperatures will continue warm on Thursday, and it will be quite humid. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM Wednesday... Attention remains focused on interaction of a cold front approaching from the NW and the remnants of what is currently Tropical Storm Cindy which will be approaching from the SW. Unfortunately, models continue to differ quite a bit on location and amount of the heaviest rain, but confidence continues to increase in a prolonged heavy rainfall event Thursday night through Friday night. The first slug of tropical moisture crossing the forecast area from SW to NE Thursday night. Have an enhanced area of POPs reflecting this trend -- lifting through the CWA Thursday night along with a half to three quarters of an inch of rain. Even with this first slug models are painting different pictures on where the heaviest rainfall will occur. The ECMWF hits NW CWA hard with close to 2 inches, while the GFS, Canadian and NAM are more broad with a half to one inch across the bulk of the CWA. Trended toward this consensus with the POPs and QPF Thursday night into early Friday. By mid morning Friday, the initial slug of moisture should be departing to the north. The cold front should be crossing NW Ohio and Central Indiana, and the remnants of Cindy will be crossing Arkansas. This should give a brief lull -- at least in heavy rain potential -- for Friday morning. However with the complexity and uncertainty of the situation did not get too cute with POPs and have maintained high chance to likely POPs. Have POPs increasing through the day Friday as the cold front gets closer. The GFS and NAM show the front holding up some as the Cindy remnants move through TN/KY late in the day and across the southern coal fields of WV overnight. The ECMWF keeps the front moving and shunts Cindy 50-100 miles farther south. While this doesn`t seem like a significant amount, the difference between in QPF between the NAM/GFS vs the ECMWF are large. The NAM has a run total precip max of 5+ inches across the Coal Fields, and the GFS has a 4-5 inch max from the Tri-State to the northern mountains. The ECMWF on the other hand is a broad one to two inches across the CWA through Saturday morning. And just to add some more numbers to the mix, the Canadian is showing a general 2-3 inches across the CWA. Opted to stay with the ongoing forecast of a broad, basin wide 2-4 inches across the CWA from late Thursday into Saturday morning...but confidence remains on the low side. The main heavy rain/flood threat still looks to be mainly late Friday and especially Friday night as the cold front/remnants move through. Cannot rule out some issues Thursday night into Friday, depending on how efficient the initial slug showers and storms are. The cold front should be progressive by Saturday, exiting early to mid morning with drier air arriving Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 345 PM Wednesday... A secondary front and the broad upper trough should move through during the first half of next week. Have some slight chance to chance POPs with this, with only limited moisture. Temperatures will be running below normal during this time frame. High pressure should settle in by mid week with dry weather to round out the extended. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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00Z Thursday through 00Z Friday... As of 720 PM Wednesday... Showers across southeastern Ohio and northern and central WV, with brief MVFR conditions, will gradually dissipate after 02Z. There is the possibility of patchy river valley fog tonight, mainly after 07Z, as well as across the north at sites that received precipitation, such as PKB and CKB. Any fog that is able to develop will dissipate after 12Z. However, no widespread fog formation is expected due to increasing cloud cover from the south. Clouds will increase and lower on Thursday, but generally remain VFR. An upper disturbance will move north through the area after 18-20Z, with showers and thunderstorms developing, particularly across southern West Virginia, southwest Virginia, and northeast KY. Expect brief MVFR and IFR conditions in precipitation, with generally VFR elsewhere. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Patchy MVFR fog does not develop tonight due to increasing cloud cover. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Saturday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ NEAR TERM...JMV/SL SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...SL

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