Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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186 FXUS61 KRLX 191020 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 620 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure with cool mornings and warm afternoons is on tap through the weekend. A strong cold front and low pressure system crosses early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 148 AM Thursday... Weak S/W trof exits this morning. Southwest wind will pick up after sunrise and will gradually turn westerly this afternoon. this wind should keep any fog or frost at bay. Some sheltered mountain valleys could see patchy fog or frost to start this morning, but should quickly dissipate after sunrise. Moderating high pressure over the area will make temperatures a tad warmer today and tonight. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM Thursday... High pressure and upper ridging over the area Friday, drift east of the area this weekend, resulting in warm, and continued dry weather. Overnight Sunday night, a northern stream short wave trough drives a surface cold front toward the middle Ohio Valley, while southerly flow out of the Gulf of Mexico, enhanced by a southern stream short wave trough, and surface low pressure system, feed moisture northward toward / into the area, ahead of the cold front. All of this conspires to increase the chance for showers toward dawn Monday. Central guidance reflects a warming trend in increasing southerly flow, around the back side of the exiting high. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 400 AM Thursday... A northern stream upper level trough lifts out through eastern Canada quickly on Monday, and the surface cold front it was driving toward the area washes out as a result. Models concur on the next northern stream trough being stronger, and digging into the eastern U.S. Tuesday, to carve out a full latitude long wave trough over the eastern U.S. by Wednesday. Models differ somewhat on the timing of a southern stream short wave trough that lifts northward ahead of the northern stream trough. This will affect the timing and track of the associated surface low pressure wave, and its interaction with the cold front driven by the digging northern stream feature. This, in turn, affects the timing and amount of precipitation in the forecast area. Current blended central guidance suggests precipitation is most likely Monday night into Tuesday, as the southern stream feature and then the northern stream cold front cross. Models suggest two inches or more are possible given the contribution of the southern system. The fast, more western track currently portrayed in the forecast would result in downsloping ahead of the system, and the typical warm / dry wedge, in turn resulting in two precipitation maxima, one over the middle Ohio Valley, and one along the eastern slopes of the WV mountains. Central guidance temperatures generally accepted, and reflect a cooling trend from above to below normal by Wednesday. After a cold, dry Thursday morning, a slightly milder afternoon should ensue, as the large trough begins to lift out. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 12Z Thursday thru 12Z Friday... As of 615 AM Thursday... High pressure in control over the region. VFR conditions will continue through the weekend. Any fog should quickly dissipate after sunrise this morning, especially at KEKN. Southwest wind 5 to 10 kts this morning becoming west this afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may affect more terminals if low level winds relax. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... Dense valley fog possible each morning through the weekend, and in rain at times early next week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/TRM NEAR TERM...JS SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...JS

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