Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 290241 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1041 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 1030 PM UPDATE... NO CHANGES. ISOLATE SHRA IN COAL FIELDS WILL DIE OFF SOON. 700 PM UPDATE... FINESSED SKY GRIDS OVERNIGHT. LINE OF SHRA MOVING THRU I64 CORRIDOR CURRENTLY AHEAD OF A SMALL VORT LOBE. CARRIED SOME SMALL POPS UNTIL ABOUT 06Z. FOG FCST TOUGH TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE QUITE A BIT MOISTURE IN THE H9 TO H85 LYR PIVOTING DOWN INTO SE OH AND W WV LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO REFORM ASSUMING PARTIAL CLEARING THIS EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... POST FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT HAS ALLOWED ISOLD SPRINKLES TO FIRE OFF. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LTG THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING DECREASES...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD SLACKEN OFF...ESPECIALLY AS FURTHER DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES. MAIN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL REMAIN IN PLAY ON TUESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DRY DAY PRECIP-WISE AS COOL AND DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO WITH BIAS CORRECTED DATA WITH A BLEND TOWARDS PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS WHICH LEADS TO ONLY A MINOR TWEAK. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AS IT PASSES. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A SYSTEM LIFTS UP FROM THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK. USED AND BLEND OF MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... BAND OF SHRA MOVING THRU I64 CORRIDOR AFFECTING KHTS/KCRW THRU 01Z AND PERHAPS KBKW. HAVE SOME TEMPO MVFR SHRA FOR THOSE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TOUGH FG FCST OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS TRYING TO REFORM CLOUDS...PERHAPS MVFR STRATOCU...ACROSS SE OH AND W WV WHICH WOULD MITIGATE DENSE FG FOR KHTS/KPKB. BELIEVE ENOUGH HOLES IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT FOR SOME LATE DENSE FG DEVELOPMENT FOR KEKN/KCRW WITH MAINLY MVFR FG KCKB/KBKW VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH A SCT TO BKN 4 TO 6 THSD FT STRATOCU. SFC WINDS SLACKEN OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY 5 TO 10 KT WINDS ON TUESDAY OUT OF THE NW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING MAY VARY ALONG WITH TIMING OF MORNING IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 07/29/14 UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H L L L L L H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L H BKW CONSISTENCY M L M M M L L L L L H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H L H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L L L H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H L L L L H AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/KMC NEAR TERM...KMC/30 SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...30

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