Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 210603 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 201 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure in vicinity today...then shifts to our southeast by tonight. Mid/upper level disturbance lingers into Sunday. High pressure over Ohio/Tennessee Valleys Monday into Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 800 PM UPDATE... Rain is gradually overspreading the area with amounts generally staying below half an inch tonight except over SE OH where up to an inch may fall. As the surface low tracks into OH and a mid level dry slots works in...rain chances will decrease with only a small chance for a shra. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... A Low pressure system intensify as the first vorticity lobe crosses the area by this evening. Models indicate that a series of vorticity lobes will move around the low to keep the atmosphere unstable through Sunday. Radar images show stronger convection is over central KY moving north. This batch of PCPN will eventually drift east and affect southeast OH and portions of WV tonight. Models indicate precipitable water of 1.5 inches, poor sfc based CAPE and marginal deep layer shear of 35 knots. Do not see any report upstream and lightning density is diminishing. Will continue monitoring rainfall estimates and flash flood guidance to anticipate any event. Light to moderate rain will affect southeast OH this evening, and the rest of WV overnight. Used the superblend and, bias corrected SREF for temperatures through the period. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The upper level trough overhead to start the period will close off at 500mb by Sunday night. Scattered showers can be expected through the day on Sunday. The upper low moves over Delmarva by early Monday morning...where it will sit until early Tuesday morning. Several weak waves perturbating around the low will help keep the threat for showers across far eastern forecast zones into Monday night. Should finally dry out by Tuesday as weak high pressure moves overhead. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SFC high pressure will be overhead for the start of the period but the fair weather will be short lived. After Wednesday the Guidance a stationary boundary will settle over the area and this will keep unsettled conditions into the weekend with several short waves moving across the area in zonal flow. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Near 06z...the main rain shield will be exiting the ckb-ekn corridor before 08z. Surface low in ne Ky at 06z...should lift toward Pkb by 12z. Weakening low level flow 06z to 12z...after the stronger flow associated with the rain. The weaker flow and the saturated low levels in the wake of the main rain shield is making the forecast of ceilings difficult through the entire 24 hour taf period. Few spotty showers will still be seen this morning. As flow turns to southwest vcnty Hts...have lower ceilings developing before dawn...but unsure how far east to have ifr ceilings develop after sunrise. Have showers with an embedded thunderstorm developing 15z to 18z associated with the mid/upper level disturbance...after 00z Sunday...have lingering pcpn mostly ckb-crw on east and going more toward light rain and drizzle as low level flow becomes weak northwest. have widespread ifr ceilings developing 00z to 06z Sunday with fog over the mountain counties including bkw. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ifr ceilings may develop Pkb to Crw corridor between 06z to 12z this morning before lifting slightly. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 05/21/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L L L M M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... Ifr in low stratus/fog 06z through 12z Sunday mainly Ckb-Crw on east... including the mountain counties. Nocturnal fog may cause local ifr late sunday night and again late Monday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ/30 SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...KTB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.