-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 241730
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
130 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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Cooler Sunday through Tuesday, with upper level disturbances
possibly providing a few light showers.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 120 PM Saturday...

A broad upper level trough moving through the western Great
Lakes will provide mild and mainly dry weather this weekend.
Models do show a couple weak 500mb ripples moving through
tonight and Sunday. Kept POPs dry, but did include some
additional clouds. High and low temperatures will run generally
5-7 degrees cooler than normal for late June.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 445 AM Saturday...

Reinforcing shots of progressively cooler air arrive this
period, on a series upper level short wave troughs that act to
deepen the long wave trough position over the eastern U.S. The
final short wave may finally be able to summon enough moisture
for a shower or thunderstorm north come Tuesday.

Canadian high pressure builds in for the finale...as the nadir
of this cool spell is reached under clear, calm conditions
Wednesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 445 AM Saturday...

This period begins with an increase in temperature and moisture,
as an upper level long wave trough over the eastern U.S., moves
off to the east. With the upper level high over the
southwestern U.S. backing away, the upper level flow flattens.
Increasing moisture in a return low level south to southwest
flow around the surface high exiting to the east, and weak upper
level short wave troughs in the flattening flow, will increase
the chance for mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms Thursday and especially Friday.

A stronger upper level short wave trough and surface frontal
system will bring a better chance for less diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms next Saturday.

Central guidance temperatures accepted, which show warming and
then leveling off above normal, especially at night.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 125 PM Saturday...

VFR cumulus field in place this afternoon should dissipate some
as the sun set. A couple 500mb ripples could bring some clouds
tonight and Sunday, but rainfall is not expected. Depending on
clouds, we could see some river valley fog early Sunday morning
as temperatures drop into the mid to upper 50s in many areas.
Opted to include some MVFR fog at EKN, but confidence not real
high at this point. Wind will generally be light out of the
west.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog formation tonight may be more
widespread -- or not occur at all due to clouds.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible in river valley fog early Monday morning.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...MZ