Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 152001 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 301 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front passes through the region tonight through Tuesday. Arctic air mid week. Turning milder for the end of the week, as the arctic high exits. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 130 PM Monday... Low pressure passes north of the area tonight and into the Great Lakes and continues Northeastward during the day on Tuesday. The trailing cold front with this low slowly moves through the area tonight and during the day tomorrow, bringing a band of snow with it. With a positive tilted upper trof movement of the front will be relatively slow to push through. Model QPF equates to about 1 to 3 inches across the Western lowlands of SE OH, NE KY, Western WV and SW VA. Slightly high amounts of 2 to 4 in the higher elevations of the Eastern mountains of WV. Current advisories look good for the area. Starting in the west and continuing an eastward progression through the night tonight. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 230 PM Monday... High pressure builds at the surface from the West through the period, gradually drying us out as the upper level trough and cold front slowly move out to the East. Still have upslope/frontal snow along the WV and SW VA mountains with low- level moisture and NW flow - and some enhancement early Wednesday along the highest peaks of WV with a subtle mid-level wave advecting through the trough. Though, low- level winds turn more westerly and cut off any upslope influence by daybreak Wednesday. Gusty winds and continued cold air advection aloft produce wind chills dipping into single digits and negative single digits Wednesday morning. Temperatures steadily climb through the end of the period under warm air advection and broad ridging aloft.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 245 PM Monday... Warm air advection continues under ridging/SW flow, bringing in pleasantly warm temperatures through the end of the weekend ahead of the next system, whose high-level clouds start streaming in Saturday. A deepening upper level trough over the western US sets the stage for classic lee-side cyclogenesis, shown in all long-range operational models. Though have had to slosh PoPs somewhat due to uncertain timing, there seems to be good indication of warm-overriding rain showers Saturday night into Sunday ahead of a strong cold front with rainfall Sunday night into Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1020 AM Monday... Quick update to adjust cloud and -SHSN coverage in TAFs. Otherwise current forecast looks on track. As of 135 PM Monday... VFR conditions will prevail over the region the rest of the afternoon hours. With the possibility of some brief MVFR at PKB late this afternoon in snow showers from a PKB to HTS line. A cold front is expected to push through the region tonight and Tuesday. Southerly winds out ahead of this front will switch to the WNW behind the front. Some gusts to 15-20kts are possible near the front. MVFR to IFR conditions will progress from west to east this afternoon and overnight in cigs and vsbys in snow showers, and continue through the day on Tuesday as the front pushes through. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR to IFR in snow may vary late this afternoon and tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M L H H H H M H M M M L CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H M L AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR likely in snow Tuesday into Tuesday night, and possibly lingering into Wednesday in the mountains, mostly in the wake of a cold front that crosses tonight and Tuesday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday for WVZ005-524. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Tuesday for WVZ005>011-013>020-027>032-039-040. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EST Wednesday for WVZ520>522-525-526. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight EST Tuesday night for WVZ024>026-033-034-515>519. OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Tuesday for OHZ076-085>087. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for OHZ066-067- 075-083-084. KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Tuesday for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight EST Tuesday night for VAZ003-004.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/MC NEAR TERM...JS SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...JS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.