Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 231800 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 200 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Increasingly warmer and more humid air as the week progresses...before the next cold front approaches later in the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 145 PM Tuesday... Flat cu field centered over the high terrain will dissipate this evening for a mostly clear sky areawide. Suspect some patchy dense river valley fog will form once again tonight...though the low level flow increases out of the SE near 20 kts late helping to keep it in check some. It will still be a comfy night with lows in the 50s to lower 60s. A warm frontal boundary will cross on Wednesday with an increase in cloud cover as well as humidity. Kept the idea of isolated shra mainly over SE OH/NE KY and the mountains. Instability appears to be lacking a bit but still cannot rule out an afternoon tsra. Highs tomorrow look to top out in the mid 80s with 70s in the mountains.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 335 AM Tuesday... Warm frontal boundary will move northeast through area Wednesday...with warmer temperatures...and a return of higher humidity. A stray shower or thunderstorm will be possible Wednesday afternoon in the increasingly unstable atmosphere. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase on Thursday as an upper disturbance moves through the region...followed by another Thursday night...across the Great Lakes region...keeping a slight chance of pops across the north. Cold frontal boundary will approach the region on Friday...with showers and thunderstorms developing. Some drier air could filter in across the north late Friday...but this will depend on timing...and how far south the frontal boundary actually treks. At this point...it doesnt look like there will be a significant break in the humidity and heat over the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday... A cold front approaches Friday increasing the chance for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Still quite a bit of uncertainty on when the front arrives, so not much confidence in pinpointing a time, but for now, early Friday looks like the best bet. GFS starts to bring another front through early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 145 PM Tuesday... 18Z Tuesday thru 18Z Wednesday... VFR conditions thru 00z with light flow. Flat sct to bkn cu field over the mountains will dissipated this evening. Patchy MVFR/IFR fog after 06z...affecting KPKB/KEKN/KCRW. Any fog will dissipate by 13z for a return to VFR conditions areawide. A warm front will cross during the day with just an isolated threat for a shra or tsra...though a bkn 4 to 6 thsd foot deck is envisioned for most. Light S surface winds. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium on fog. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of fog may vary overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... Dense morning valley fog possible through mid week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...30

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.