-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 241905
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
305 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front slides southward across the area through this
evening. A much stronger cold front will cross late Monday,
setting us up with more autumn-like temperatures next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 3 PM Saturday...

Quiet weather continues as a weak cold front slides south of the
area this evening, with little fanfare. High pressure over the
Great Lakes ridges south and east down the eastern slopes of the
Appalachians tonight and Sunday. This will set up an inverted
surface trough just west of the mountains later tonight and
Sunday. The main effect of this will be to allow some low level
moisture and clouds east of the mountains to advect westward into
the mountains later tonight, as low level flow turns more
easterly. Models tries to spit out some very low and spotty QPF
in the mountains tonight, but not buying into this with shallow
moisture and building heights. While noting there is a question as
to whether these clouds may reach the I79 corridor later tonight
if the winds remain more northeasterly...we look for mostly clear
skies west of the mountains tonight. This will to better river
valley fog formation in the drier and cooler air behind the front.
Sunday will be continued warm adn dry with abundant sunshine under
high pressure, with mountains clouds mixing out during the
morning.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 AM Saturday...

Frontal boundary should be across far southern zones at the start of
the period...with slightly lower dew points across the north. Most
of the area should be dry on Sunday...although a slight chance for
showers is possible across the south and the higher terrain mainly
during peak heating hours.

Cold front will approach from the west on Monday...with showers and
thunderstorms...with much cooler air moving in behind the front.
Front should be to the east of the CWA by late Monday night...with
drier air filtering in. Area will be under the influence of an upper
low/trough into mid week...with isolated -shra and clouds
possible...mainly across the north...along with cooler/more
seasonable temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z Saturday thru 18Z Sunday...

As of 1225 pm Friday...

Cold front exits by Tuesday afternoon taking any precip with it.
Much cooler and drier air works its way in behind it as high
pressure builds across the region by Tuesday night. A secondary
trof axis rotates across the northern portion of the CWA Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Best chances of any precip will be north of
the CWA and we should only see clouds with this. Cool high
pressure will start to build across the region Wednesday night and
for the rest of the week. Cooler and more fall like temperatures
are expected as well.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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18Z Saturday thru 12Z Sunday.

As of 145 PM Saturday...

Thru 00Z,
A weak east to west cold front, across the central portion of WV
and extreme southeast OH at 17z, will continue southward through
this afternoon. Front will exit the far south early this evening.
Band of associated clouds has largely dissipated...and we look
VFR SCT-BKN clouds between 3500-5000 feet AGL remainder of this
afternoon. Light and variable winds ahead of the front becomes
northerly 5 to 10 KTS behind the front.

After 00Z,
Most clouds will have dissipated by around 00Z, then generally
FEW-SCT 5000-8000 feet AGL, but with one important exception. As
the winds turn more light northeasterly and then southeasterly
tonight, MVFR/IFR ceilings will tend to form in the WV mountain
chain. This will bring MVFR ceilings by 06z to EKN and BKW, then
IFR after 08z, with some LIFR in the higher elevations. River
valley fog looks be more of an issue after 06Z tonight behind the
front, especially where skies are clear. This will bring
MVFR/IFR fog to major TAF sites, except BKW, after 07Z.

After 13z, Outside of the mountains, improving to VFR mostly
clear by 14z. In the mountains, fog lifting to MVFR ceilings by
14z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, extent and intensity of fog tonight
is likely to vary. Timing and extent of MVFR stratocu in the
mountains tonight may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    L

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
Low stratus possible Monday night, then morning valley fog
possible next week.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...JMV