Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 121745 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 145 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TODAY. A COLD FRONT BRINGS STORMY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER FOLLOWS MID TO LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... NO CHANGES EXCEPT MORE TLC TO THE SKY GRIDS. AWAITING NEW SYNOPTIC MODELS. PREV DISC... HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON LONG ENOUGH FOR ONE MORE RELATIVELY QUIET DAY TODAY...WITH NOTHING OTHER THAN ISOLATED ELEVATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WARM ADVECTION BRINGS ABOUT AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT LACK OF MARKED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL THETA E MAKES IT QUESTIONABLE WHETHER WE COULD STAND SOMETHING UP OVERNIGHT...EVEN AS A MID LEVEL DRY LAYER IS ERADICATED. HAVE SCHC UP N TOWARD DAWN SUNDAY. INHERITED TEMPERATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LATEST GUIDANCE WITH ONLY MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS MADE. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND HEAT ACROSS THE CWA. PW VALUES BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM AND HUMID ATMOSPHERE. STILL LOOKING LIKE SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING THAT STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES. WITH CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH UPPER SUPPORT/STRONG WINDS ALOFT. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH ON MONDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT...CREATING ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY...WITH THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN 2/3 OF CWA. A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EAST ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL FINALLY USHER IN DRIER AND COOLER AIR. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE HWO. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING TUESDAY...WITH CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREAFTER...DRY HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. MAY GET SOME MOUNTAIN VALLEY MVFR TONIGHT AT EKN FOR A FEW HOURS LATE...BUT THE OVERALL THOUGH PROCESS IS THAT CLOUD COVER INCREASES WILL PREVENT VALLEY FOG TONIGHT. LAMP WANTS MORE TOWARDS IFR FOR EKN...BUT WILL NOT GO THAT AGGRESSIVE. CEILINGS COULD RISE IN PLACES TO 8KFT LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE INCONSISTENT...BUT AGAIN...VFR EXPECTED. INTRODUCE VCTS AFTER 16Z SUNDAY AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES WITH HEATING AND MOISTURE INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR AT EKN MAY NOT MATERIALIZE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR IN ROUNDS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...WITH POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOG WHERE RAIN FALLS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM/26 SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...26

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