Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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976 FXUS61 KRLX 162330 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 630 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A high pressure system will build in tonight providing gradual clearing. The high remains on Friday. Strong cold front for Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 630 PM Thursday... A bit of a tough call on the clouds tonight, they have been rooted in place all afternoon/evening. Went a bit more pessimistic on them breaking up overnight, lingering cloud cover longer than previous forecast... especially across the north. Generally used a blend toward the NAMNest to achieve this. With this in mind, also adjusted low temperatures a few degrees warmer under the clouds, and a touch colder across the south were skies are already mostly clear. As of 1230 PM Thursday... Some cold air advection will continue this evening, allowing for a stratus deck in some locations. Moisture depth is limited, so any upslope precipitation should be very light and limited to northeastern WV. Therefore will only mention sprinkles or flurries. As warm air advection sets in later tonight, expect clearing skies. A high pressure system will provide dry weather and plenty of sunshine for Friday. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 PM Thursday... The area of high pressure pushes quickly east allowing a strong system to approach from the west by late Friday night. Models suggest a warm front will push northeast across the area on Saturday with a strong cold front pushing east Saturday night. As a result, expect a decent chance of showers across our southeast Ohio counties as well as the northern counties of West Virginia by Friday night and across much of the region Saturday into Saturday night. Ahead of the front, there could even be a few rumbles of thunder. Some of these storms could produce strong wind gusts as southwest winds in excess of 50 kts are anticipated just above the surface. The rainshowers should begin to mix with snow around midnight with snow or a rain/snow mixture across our northern counties and much of the West Virginia mountains by morning. Air aloft will be quite cold and this should allow the precipitation to be in the form of snow even with surface temperatures several degrees above freezing across the lowland counties. By Sunday, precipitation chances should end from the west as high pressure tries to build in. Much of the area should be dry with precipitation chances in the form of snow continuing in the mountains late Sunday afternoon and evening. Snow chances should even end in the mountains Sunday night as drier high pressure builds in. Current thinking is that portions of the higher elevations of the northern mountain counties could see snowfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches. Southerly winds will develop Friday night which should act to keep temperatures up across the west where overnight lows should be in the 40s. However, lighter winds across the northeast as well as the mountain counties should allow the temperatures to fall into the 30s with temperatures rising before daybreak. Gusty southwest winds Saturday will result in above normal daytime temperatures. However, much colder air will filter in Saturday night with daytime readings Sunday and lows Sunday night well below normal. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 240 PM Thursday... High pressure should be in charge on Monday. Models suggest a cold front will approach from the northwest by mid-week. However, models really diverge on the timing of the front. Used a blend of model guidance for temperatures through the period. && .AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 630 PM Thursday... Main change was to linger MVFR stratus through most of the night at TAF sites. BKW currently has clear skies, but satellite shows clouds encroaching on the area, so bring them back down to MVFR late this evening. Some possibility of a period of IFR at BKW as well, but did not include that at this time. Clouds will gradually break up from south to north late tonight and Friday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR restrictions could vary, especially the erosion of clouds overnight/Friday. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EST 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M L L BKW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M L M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H M L L AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... IFR possible Saturday and Saturday night in precipitation. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY/AB NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ SHORT TERM...JSH/AB LONG TERM...JSH/AB AVIATION...MZ

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