-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 201030
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
425 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING TODAY. WEAK SLUGGISH FLOW INTO
TUESDAY...WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
COLD FRONT INITIALLY TIMED TO PASS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STILL DEALING WITH 500MB TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH. MODELS SHOWING
SEVERAL RIPPLES IN THE PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL. MODELS FAVORING THE COAL FIELDS AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS FOR HIGHEST POPS...CORRESPONDING TO MOST PRONOUNCED VORT
LOBE. HAVE POPS LINGERING IN THE WV MOUNTAINS INTO TONIGHT. WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS STILL AROUND TODAY...AND BASED ON HIGH TEMPS
STAYING BELOW GUIDANCE YESTERDAY...LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY
A COUPLE DEGREES. ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS BY
USING A BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLOW AT 700 MBS AOB 10 KNOTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  WITH A WEAK 925 MB
FLOW STILL FROM THE SOUTHEAST.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW THIN
CAPE DEVELOPING DURING THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME.  WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES.  YET...LATE IN THE DAY...COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM COMING OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES.

THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MAY ACTUALLY TRY TO
CREEP BACK NORTH TOWARD THE WV/VA BORDER AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO LEFT A 20 POP FOR THE PREDAWN HOURS
WEDNESDAY MOSTLY S OF BECKLEY.  ON WEDNESDAY...TRIED TO HOLD THE
HTS-CRW-CKB AREA POP AOB 14 PCT LONGER. HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE SE STATES...AND THEN
CHANCE POPS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO DURING THE AFTERNOON
FROM THE PREFRONTAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERLIES MOVING
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

WARMEST TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE I-79
CORRIDOR...WHILE WARMEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING...A MORE ROBUST FRONT
ARRIVES AS IT TRAILS OFF OF A RATHER DEEP SYNOPTIC LOW THAT SWINGS
OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF A
DECAYING MCS...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. INSTABILITY IS
GOOD IN FRONT OF IT WITH SOME MINOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH NW FLOW
AND A DECENT VORT MAX. BULK SHEAR IN THE 30 KT RANGE LOOKS GOOD TOO.
ACCORDINGLY...BOOSTED POPS AND SPED UP TIMING A TAD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MIXED BAG ACROSS FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE DENSE FOG
FLOATING AROUND...PLUS SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY
DRIFTING NORTH. WITH A COUPLE RIPPLES AT 500MB CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER TODAY...AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE TO LOW IN WHEN AND WHERE TO PUT IN TAF AT
THIS POINT. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...THINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS THROUGH THE DAY. LOWER CIGS MAY HANG IN THE MOUNTAINS
WITH SE FLOW. ANTICIPATE MORE SCATTERED CLOUDS TONIGHT...SO HAVE
RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING AFTER AROUND 06Z TONIGHT IN TYPICAL
LOCATIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED AS SHOWERS PROGRESS
THROUGH THE DAY. FOG DENSITY AND TIMING MAY VARY TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SUN 07/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    L    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...MZ