-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 121745
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
145 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TODAY.  A COLD FRONT BRINGS STORMY
WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY
TUESDAY.  UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER FOLLOWS MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES EXCEPT MORE TLC TO THE SKY GRIDS. AWAITING NEW SYNOPTIC
MODELS.

PREV DISC...
HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON LONG ENOUGH FOR ONE MORE RELATIVELY QUIET DAY
TODAY...WITH NOTHING OTHER THAN ISOLATED ELEVATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

WARM ADVECTION BRINGS ABOUT AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT LACK OF MARKED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL THETA E
MAKES IT QUESTIONABLE WHETHER WE COULD STAND SOMETHING UP
OVERNIGHT...EVEN AS A MID LEVEL DRY LAYER IS ERADICATED.  HAVE SCHC
UP N TOWARD DAWN SUNDAY.

INHERITED TEMPERATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LATEST GUIDANCE
WITH ONLY MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND HEAT ACROSS THE CWA. PW VALUES BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES. COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...GENERATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM AND HUMID ATMOSPHERE. STILL LOOKING LIKE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING THAT STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONGER
SIDE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES. WITH CAPE AROUND
2000 J/KG ALONG WITH UPPER SUPPORT/STRONG WINDS ALOFT. HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH ON MONDAY...WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT...CREATING ENHANCED CHANCES FOR
ACTIVITY...WITH THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CONTINUING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN 2/3 OF CWA.

A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EAST ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
FINALLY USHER IN DRIER AND COOLER AIR.

WILL KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING
TUESDAY...WITH CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
THEREAFTER...DRY HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT OTHERWISE...VFR
THROUGH THE EVENING. MAY GET SOME MOUNTAIN VALLEY MVFR TONIGHT AT
EKN FOR A FEW HOURS LATE...BUT THE OVERALL THOUGH PROCESS IS THAT
CLOUD COVER INCREASES WILL PREVENT VALLEY FOG TONIGHT. LAMP WANTS
MORE TOWARDS IFR FOR EKN...BUT WILL NOT GO THAT AGGRESSIVE.

CEILINGS COULD RISE IN PLACES TO 8KFT LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE
INCONSISTENT...BUT AGAIN...VFR EXPECTED.

INTRODUCE VCTS AFTER 16Z SUNDAY AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES WITH
HEATING AND MOISTURE INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR AT EKN MAY NOT MATERIALIZE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR IN ROUNDS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...WITH POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOG WHERE RAIN FALLS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...26