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210
FXUS61 KRLX 071603
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1203 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Remaining hot today, while humidity increases. Shower and storm
chances return, especially along and northwest of the Ohio
River. Storms possible daily for the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 1205 PM Monday...

Little change in overall thinking in the near term period. Frontal
boundary to the north of the CWA will sag south towards the Ohio
River vicinity late tonight/early Tuesday, and generally remain in
the vicinity through the near term period. Weak ripples in the flow,
combined with daytime heating will result in scattered showers and
storms today, of which the bulk will dissipate after loss of
heating. Not expecting much in the way of severe, owing to a lack of
substantial shear, but ample cape could yield storms with ample
growth, and in theory, an isolated severe/damaging wind potential.
SPC did elect in their day 1 update to expand the marginal risk
across SE Ohio/Mid Ohio Valley region. Storms as usual will contain
heavy downpours, but not anticipating much in the way of flooding
with drier conditions in place.

Areas of fog will be possible tonight in locations that receive rain.

More showers and storms can be expected on Tuesday, as the area
remains in the warm, unstable environment.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 1205 PM Monday...

Showers and storms will increase in coverage mid week, as a surface
low moves east through the area, and a more potent upper shortwave
trough affects the area. Overall severe threat still looks to be on
the low end during this period, but plenty of instability, and a
slight uptick in shear could warrant an isolated strong to severe
storm. Heavy downpours will continue to be a threat, but storms will
have overall a little better movement than in the near term period,
with steering flow around 20-25 kts in general.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 1205 PM Monday...

Weather continues to remain unsettled in the extended period with
uncertainty in details this far out. However, period looks to remain
hot and humid, with area largely in the warm sector, with showers
and storms possible from passing disturbances/heating. Continued
convection/associated cloud cover should hopefully strive to keep
temperatures and associated heat indices during the period below
advisory criteria.
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&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 130 AM Monday...

Some mid-level and high clouds linger over the northeastern
quadrant of the CWA this morning, but otherwise we are clear,
and largely fog-free. Gentle to moderate SW-W`ly breezes will
pick up in the mid to late-morning hours, and some scattered
cumulus will likely develop. A few gusts up around 15 knots will
be possible around the area.

A front approaching across Ohio will bring some showers and
storms to Southeast Ohio starting around 18z. They will likely
push into the Mid-Ohio Valley and possibly north-central WV,
but at this lead time opted to go mainly with VCSH and PROB30
groups rather than prevailing for TSRA activity. Did go with
a TEMPO group for PKB, where the chances are highest. Showers
and storms diminish after 00z, but a few likely linger later
into the evening.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and coverage of fog may vary from
the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under heavy showers or
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours,
each day this week.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FK