


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --611 FXUS61 KRLX 290608 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 208 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Daily chances for showers and storms prevail through the weekend amid the ongoing heat wave. Cold frontal passage Tuesday. Brief high pressure Wednesday. Another cold front crosses Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 645 PM Saturday... Main change was to update POPs by blending in some NAMNest, as it seems to have the best handle, though it`s not perfect either. Will likely need to make another update or two this evening to account for latest trends in the convection. Also added in `heavy rain` wording for the weather grids through midnight, and restricted fog to more valley locations. As of 135 PM Saturday... A cold front stalls to our north this evening. An unstable environment, characterized by PWATs up to 2 inches, SBCAPE exceeding 3,000 J/Kg and poor deep layered shear will support development for slow-moving afternoon showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Localized water problems may result from repetitive heavy downpours, or very slow moving storms. Convection may be more active across the northern portions of our CWA nearby the front, and over the higher elevations this evening. Some models show few ripples of vorticity within a zonal flow at H500 passing tonight. SPC maintains a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms for these areas through this evening. The main threat will be damaging winds and heavy downpours. There could be a lull in precipitation activity late tonight into Sunday morning. However, expect less convective activity on Sunday. A clean zonal flow at H500 will allow for another episode of convection driven by diurnal heating and ample moisture during the afternoon and evening hours. It will remain muggy at night with dewpoints reaching the mid 70s across the lowlands. Hot temperatures in the lower 90s and available moisture will provide heat index values in the upper 90s across some lowland spots on Sunday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 200 AM Sunday... For Monday, we will be in the warm sector ahead of a cold frontal boundary draped across the region from a parent low traversing east across Canada just north of the Great Lakes. For the most part, the morning should be quiet, however diurnal chances for shower and thunderstorm activity ramp up by mid afternoon. Thunderstorm chances ramp up to likely storms around this time frame as well and will last into the early evening. Thereafter chances drop off some, but will stay elevated in response to cold frontal passage for Tuesday. Generally, on Monday, instability will be on the high side with up to 3000 J/kg of MU CAPE to work with. The hydro indices will be on the high side with PWATs around 2 inches and a very saturated column. This will promote strong to severe storms as well as heavy downpours once again across much of the area. Weak shear will aid in slow moving storms which could lead to localized hydro issues like what we have been getting lately. For Tuesday, very similar setup with a slightly less saturated column and lower PWATs and with the frontal passage likely in the early evening, not too much time for slow moving storms to cause issue for too long, since activity will be ending early from west to east through the afternoon. There is however enough instability to keep storms going and possibly becoming strong to severe during frontal passage and even ahead of the front earlier in the daytime. Shear will be greater than Monday so storms should be moving along nicely and will likely not cause too many hydro issues, but stronger storms may cause some strong gusty winds or damaging, if severe. After frontal passage by Tuesday evening high pressure at the surface then quickly builds in and some lingering showers may be left behind along the mountains as the upper level trough shifts east slowly.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 200 AM Sunday... Starting Tuesday evening and going into Wednesday, high pressure will dominate for the rest of the week keeping most activity away from the area. An upper trough on Thursday may bring some chances for some thunderstorms in the afternoon around the northern periphery of the CWA, but other than that, much of the area will be protected. Going into Friday, chances start to materialize, but just slight chances will remain around the region, but much of our area will remain dry even for Saturday. An isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out however the safe pattern will continue for the rest of this period and possibly beyond. However, central guidance has chances popping up for Sunday even though medium range models keep the area relatively dry.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 AM Sunday... Lingering showers and storms from this past evening have concluded across the forecast area, yielding quiet weather through Sunday morning. A nearby frontal boundary draped to the north, in tandem with a plethora of low level moisture festering over the area, will serve up potential for river valley fog during the predawn hours. Put more emphasis for fog at TAF sites that picked up precipitation earlier today, but that could remain dependent upon cloud coverage throughout the overnight hours. Any fog that does develop will quickly erode after sunrise. The forecast for the daytime hours on Sunday will follow a similar pattern to what we`ve seen the past few days, with morning conditions remaining generally quiet, then growing active in the afternoon with isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Best potential for precipitation is slated along the higher terrain Sunday afternoon, but a low end chance for a passing shower/storm is not out of the question for the lowlands. A mention of vicinity thunder was included across all sites for the second half of the TAF period. The late evening portions of the forecast will become primarily radar driven, with potential for lingering storms past sunset. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog coverage and timing tonight may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 06/29/25 UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H M H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H L L H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H M L L L M H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M L L H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR conditions possible in afternoon and evening thunderstorms, and early morning fog, through Monday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEK/JZ NEAR TERM...FK/ARJ SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...JZ AVIATION...MEK