Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 130241 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1041 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS SOUTH. SURFACE TROUGH/REINFORCING FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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1000 PM UPDATE... DELAYED ONSET OF DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT VIA SREF AND NEAR TERM ENSEMBLE OUTPUT. NEAR TERM MODELS AND NAM STILL INSIST ON PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT 06-08Z IN THE WEAK NOCTURNAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE SETTING UP ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. TRIMMED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AS WELL ON ACCOUNT OF THINNER CLOUD COVER. LOST STRATOCU JUST W OF MOUNTAINS IN WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW NEAR SUNSET BUT IT WAS BEGINNING TO ENCROACH BACK IN FROM THE W AS 03Z APPROACHED. 800 PM UPDATE... SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TRYING TO DEVELOP OUT OF ALTOCU DECK IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHILE FLOW VEERING TO SE IS SUPPORTING UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION STARTING TO BREAK OUT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WV MOUNTAINS. SFC WAVE FORMS OVER THE FCST AREA IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT...AND THEN THEY BOTH MOVE OUT IN TANDEM ON SAT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE NEWD AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE MOVING E ON SAT AS A RESULT. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BUT THE OVERALL THESIS REMAINS THE SAME. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ON OR CLOSE. PREV DISCN... GENERALLY A CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME CLEARING ON THE EASTERN SLOPES. ALSO BEGINNING TO SEE SOME SIGNS OF THE LOW STRATUS THINNING IN PLACES SO ANTICIPATE GOING MORE BROKEN ON THE LOW STRATUS...BUT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE MID WEST. EXPECT THIS TROUGH...WHICH IS ALMOST LIKE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT...TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE ANY DYNAMIC LIFT IS ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT. LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY SO LEFT THUNDER OUT. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...DID NOT DROP TEMPS OFF MUCH TONIGHT FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW. BLENDED IN THE BIAS- CORRECTED SREF FOR LOWS GOING FOR UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY TOMORROW...HOLDING TEMPS DOWN. USED A MAV/MET BLEND RESULTING IN A BIT COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT A TOUCH WARMER THAN TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA BASED ON THE THINKING THAT WE MAY SEE MORE PEEKS OF SUNSHINE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THAN TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM FORECAST DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...SUPPLYING FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WHERE AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER...KEEPING THE CLOUDS UP IN THIS AREA. ADD SOME POPS TO THIS AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME...BUT THIS CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER SIDE. NOT JUSTIFIED IN IGNORING THE OMEGA SIGNAL IN THE NAM HOWEVER. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. PATTERN REMAINS COOLER IN NATURE WITH EARLY FALL TYPE WEATHER PREVAILING. IN THE END...USED WPC HEAVILY AS GUIDANCE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST...AND HAVE A 7 DAY FORECAST IN TOTAL WITH NO THUNDER IN THE FORECAST GRIDS IN ANY DAY. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HOLES BEGAN FORMING IN THE MVFR STRATUS AS 00Z APPROACHED...MOST OF WHICH SHOULD FILL IN OVERNIGHT. A WEAK WAVE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA E OF THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. MVFR VSBY IN RAIN IS MOST LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE RAIN WILL MOVE E...OUT OF THE AREA ON SAT...AS THE WAVE MOVES E. DRIER AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE WAVE SHOULD LIFT THE STRATUS INTO AN MVFR STRATOCU DECK ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. LIGHT NE SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT SE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LIGHT NW IN THE LOWLANDS OVERNIGHT...AS THE SFC WAVE DEVELOPS...AND THEN NW THROUGHOUT SAT AS THE WAVE MOVES E. LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT NW ON SAT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: PRESENCE OF LOW STRATUS IS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AT NT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 09/13/14 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L M M M M M L L H M M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H M H H H AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/26 NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...TRM

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