-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 210818
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
415 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
WEAK SLUGGISH FLOW INTO TUESDAY...WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. FLOW AND MOISTURE INCREASES WEDNESDAY.
COLD FRONT STILL TIMED TO PASS ON THURSDAY. DRIER ON FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KRLX RADAR AT 07Z DEPICTING A SHOWER OR TWO STILL HANGING ON OVER
THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS THIS MORNING...WITH ALL SHOWERS HAVING ENDED
ELSEWHERE. FOG AND SOME LOW STRATUS HAS FORMED AS EXPECTED MAINLY
NEAR AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HANGING ON
FURTHER EAST. STILL EXPECT THESE FEW SHOWERS TO FIZZLE OUT OVER THE
COURSE OF THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
AND/OR LOW STRATUS ROUGHLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO PREV FCST. PROGGED 925MB/850MB TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON SUPPORT GENERAL UPPER 80S FOR THE LOWLANDS...WITH PERHAPS
A LOCATION OR TWO REACHING THE 90F MARK. KEPT INHERITED LOW/MID
CHANCE POPS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHERE THE BEST COMBO OF LLVL MOISTURE AND SFC CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO
RESIDE ON SOUTHEAST BL FLOW. WITH 0-6K SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5KTS AND
UNDER...WILL BE HARD FOR ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO MAKE IT VERY FAR
NORTHWEST.  FOR THE LOWLANDS...TOUGH CALL ON WHETHER OR NOT TO
EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A STOUT SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND NO FRONT OR EVIDENT BL
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER. HOWEVER...PWATS ARE STILL RUNNING ABOUT
1.35IN-1.40IN AREA-WIDE. MODEL POINT SOUNDING OVER SE OHIO DO SHOW
AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR OVERCOMING AFOREMENTIONED CAP WITH
ENOUGH SFC HEATING. ELECTED TO GO AHEAD AND EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AREA-WIDE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY...EVEN THOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF LOWLAND AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

ANY PRECIP OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY THE
01Z-02Z TUE TIME FRAME WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. KEPT AT
LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING ON THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE
EARLY/MID OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CONTINUED SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW...WHICH
PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON. ELSEWHERE...FOG/LOW STRATUS ONCE
AGAIN WILL BE A DECENT POSSIBILITY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE
ABOUT 1-3 DEGREES WARMER VERSUS THIS MORNING/S READINGS...WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY MID/UPPER 60S FOR THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW FROM TODAY...CONTINUES DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY BEFORE INCREASING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. 700 MB FLOW STILL 5 TO 10 KNOTS 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 21Z
TUESDAY.

THE WET GROUND MAY HINDER SOME 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.
YET...WHAT WIND THERE IS...MAY BE DOWNSLOPING INTO THE WESTERN
SLOPES.

BEFORE WE START LOOKING WEST WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WE
NEED TO LOOK SOUTH...WITH THE REMAINS OF THE WEAK 500 MB CUT OFF
OVER THE SOUTHEAST.  00Z GFS WAS MOST AGGRESSIVE BRINGING DEEPER
MOISTURE BACK N AND NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.  DID NOT
JUMP ON THAT SOLUTION YET.  YET...DID INCREASE POPS AND CLOUDS A BIT
OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND LINGER SOME 30
TO 20 POPS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
INCREASING IN THE OHIO VALLEY...TRIED TO HOLD THE WESTERN LOWLANDS
NEAR 70 DEGREES FOR A MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...00Z NAM WAS THE FASTEST WITH FIRST ROUNDS OF
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  AS A RESULT...ITS MOS
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A GOOD BIT LOWER.  DID NOT GO THAT FAST.  HAVE
SOME LIKELY POPS INTO OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO AROUND 20 TO 21Z
WEDNESDAY...SPREADING SE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

AGREE WITH SPC AT THIS POINT IN TIME...IN TERMS OF SEVERITY OF
STORMS AHEAD OF FRONT FOR DAY 3.  YET...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT
OUT. STEERING FLOW INCREASING TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS ON NAM...GFS WEAKER
IN MID LEVELS. WE STILL HAVE NO HAZARD IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.


STILL HAVE SURFACE FRONT PASSING DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. 00Z NAM
WAS AGAIN THE FASTEST CLEARING FROM NNW TO SSE.  DID NOT GO THAT
FAST. HELD ONTO POST FRONTAL CLOUDS THROUGH MOST THURSDAY NIGHT...
MAYBE EVEN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE IN SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
TIL NEAR DAWN FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MORE ROBUST FRONT ARRIVES AS IT TRAILS OFF OF A RATHER DEEP
SYNOPTIC LOW THAT SWINGS OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS ROCKETS
THE SYSTEM THROUGH OUR AREA WHILE THE OTHER MODELS VARY ON THE
SPEED OF THE FRONT. EITHER WAY...IT SHOULD NOT POSE MUCH OF A
WATER CONCERN. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRONGER WINDS WITH IT...BUT
WE WILL WAIT UNTIL IT GETS A LITTLE CLOSER TO SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT.

THINGS DRY OUT A BIT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LARGE
OCCLUDING SYSTEM MEANDERS SOUTH FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
VIRTUALLY ALL PRECIP HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...AND ONE LONE SHOWER OVER BOYD COUNTY KY. EXPECT THIS
LIGHT SHOWER TO REMAIN WEST OF THE HTS TERMINAL AS IT DISSIPATES
OVER THE NEXT HOUR. CLOUDS FROM THIS HOWEVER MAY CAUSE HIGHLY
VARIABLE VIS/LOW STRATUS CONDITIONS THERE AT HTS UNTIL THE NEAR-
DAWN HOURS.

OVERNIGHT IN GENERAL...GUIDANCE HITTING THE IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS
HARD. WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A HIT/MISS SCENARIO REGARDING VIS/LOW
STRATUS AS PERIODIC MID-LEVEL CLOUDS RIDE OVERHEAD AS WELL...BUT
DO AGREE WITH PREV FCST THAT EVENTUALLY MANY OF THE TERMINALS WILL
SEE AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS BY THE 10Z-12Z TIME FRAME.

EARLY MORNING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE...LEAVING GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY AND A SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE FOR MAINLY AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP TO MATERIALIZE APPEARS TO BE THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG COVERAGE...DENSITY...AND TIMING MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 07/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...50