-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 270115
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
913 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. COLD
FRONT WITH STRONG STORMS SUNDAY. LINGERING CONVECTION THROUGH
MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN TOO SLOW WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
INDIANA. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT THIS FASTER
TIMING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL DROP FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS AND NAM HAVE THIS FEATURE BECOMING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN OH AND PA BY 06Z MONDAY. STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW APPROACHES TO OUR AREA BY 06Z MONDAY.

WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS SYSTEMS...STRONG DYNAMIC
FORCING AND PATTERN RECOGNITION...CODED LIKELY POPS WITH THIS
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY...KEEPING LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

WITH THE PCPN EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SOILS SHOULD BE NEAR
SATURATED...POSING A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THAT TIME PERIOD.

WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST BY 21Z MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANGE
IN AIR MASS TO THE AREA. THEREFORE...EXPECT PLEASANT TEMPERATURES
WITH FRESH AIR...CLOUD COVER...AND COOLING SHOWERS.

WENT CLOSER TO ALL BLEND CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR
TWEAKS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
PROVIDING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THE AREA
CURRENTLY OVER IL SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT. CAN NOT
RULE OUT SOME BRIEF FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS
EVENING...BUT INCREASING WIND GRADIENT LATER TONIGHT MEANS ANY FOG
THAT DOES FORM SHOULD NOT REMAIN THROUGH MORNING.

WITH VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ON SUNDAY...SOME MORE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. TIMING OF THESE STORMS IS IN QUESTION HOWEVER...AS GFS
SHOWS A LATE AFTERNOON DRY AIR CAP MOVING OVER THE REGION. NAM DOES
NOT SHOW THIS CAP.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THIS EVENING...THEN LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION...DENSITY...AND TIMING OF ANY FOG
DEVELOPING IN ARE THAT RECEIVE RAIN THIS EVENING COULD VARY. TIMING
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE CONSECUTIVE
EPISODES OF HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE
IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE TO
FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF
STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH
REPETITIVE SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE
CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50

HYDROLOGY...RPY