Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 152348 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 748 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure builds for the weekend, and even into next week, with warm and slightly more humid air. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 745 PM Friday... Introduced patchy dense fog into the weather grids, confining it mainly to the river valleys. Made some tweaks to sky cover as well. Otherwise main forecast trends unchanged. As of 230 PM Friday... A high pressure system is providing dry air aloft while abundant low level moisture has produced low level stratus. With a relaxed pressure gradient, flow is near calm allowing clouds to remain in place for longer periods of time. Tonight, the fog formation will depend on clearing the skies. Guidance suggest skies clearing after sunset. Otherwise, low stratus will try to develop once again through Saturday morning. On Saturday, plenty of sun will allow for afternoon temperatures to reach the lower 80s, 2 to 3 degrees above normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Friday... High pressure provides for foggy mornings and warm afternoons, with a threat of an afternoon shower or thundershower each day across the mountains. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM Friday... No significant systems envisioned with just subtle ripples in the flow to provide low mainly diurnal chances of precip. Warmth will continue. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 745 PM Friday... Generally VFR early this evening, but conditions will decrease rapidly to LIFR/IFR aft 05z, especially near rivers and elevated valleys. Rather moist and decoupled boundary layer remains in place this period. Should see some morning gradient flow to help lift fog into stratcu deck with mountain obscuration. Models trends still show drying of the atmospheric column on Saturday with conditions improving to generally VFR after 15Z...except for some mountain obscuration in stratcu. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of fog formation could vary overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 09/16/17 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M H L L L L L L M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H L L L L L L L M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M L L L L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L L L L M CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M L L L L L L M AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... IFR expected in morning river valley fog through the weekend.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...KMC

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