Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 191933 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 333 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A VERY WARM...HUMID AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT SETS UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MORNING FOG LIFTED BY MID MORNING CREATING A LOW TO MID LEVEL DECK WHICH PRODUCE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING DIAGONALLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WITH A VERY JUICY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE EVIDENT ON DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...AND SATELLITE DERIVED PWATS ABOUT 1.4 INCHES BUT INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO DIURNAL EFFECTS. AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO POST RAINFALL FOG OR LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS UNDER WEAK FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT. MODELS ALSO SHOW A DESCENT SHORTWAVE AT 5 BRINGING A VORTICITY MAXIMA REACHING OUR WEST BORDER BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION TONIGHT. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY WITH THIS LATEST FEATURE...DUE TO AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ENHANCED BY DIURNAL HEATING. WENT WITH A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED SREF AND CONSENSUS MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANOTHER NIGHT WHERE LOWS WILL DEPEND ON THEIR DEWPOINTS. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S LOWLANDS TO THE UPPER TO MID 60S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. A WARMER AFTERNOON IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S MAINLY WEST. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE UNSETTLED WX PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM. WITH NW FLOW ALOFT...SEVERAL IMPULSES WILL TRACK THRU THE AREA. ROUGH CONSENSUS ON TIMING WITH ONE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY...A WEAKER ONE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ONE ON FRIDAY. TRACK WILL DEPEND ON HOW BEEFY THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE W GETS. APPEARS THAT S ZONES APPEAR TO BE IN LINE FOR A COUPLE OF THIS DISTURBANCES. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS WITH THE JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE...DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY AND THUS EVENTUALLY A WORRY FOR WATER PROBLEMS IN AREAS THAT GET HIT REPETITIVELY. WILL MAINTAIN HWO WORDING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD IN LATE. AT THE SURFACE...A NW-SE ORIENTED FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED NEARBY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WV...NORTHEAST KY AND WV BY 18Z. VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS CONVECTION. EXPECT BKW TO BE AFFECTED FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME WITH THIS PCPN ACTIVITY. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THESE SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY SUNSET. AREAS OF POST PCPN FOG POSSIBLE WHERE RAIN OCCURS. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL BE HARD TO FORM PER ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. AN H5 SHORTWAVE EVIDENT IN VORTICITY MAXIMA REACHES OUR WESTERN BORDER BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT COULD LAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A BIT DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT WHICH AREAS WILL GET THE STRONGER STORMS AND THE WORST AVIATION CONDITIONS ATTM.. CODED IFR VISIBILITIES OR CEILINGS BY 08Z AT MOST SITES. LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO FORM ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS ANY FOG LIFTS AFTER SUNRISE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT SW TONIGHT...WHILE LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT BECOMES LIGHT W THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN LIGHT SW TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BE DIFFERENT FROM FORECAST OVERNIGHT. IFR LOW STRATUS AND FOG COULD LAST LONGER THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY ROUND OF CONVECTION WED NT THROUGH FRI NT...AND IN LATE NT/EARLY MORNING POST RAIN FOG AND STRATUS THROUGH SAT MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...ARJ

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