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000
FXUS61 KRLX 152331
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
704 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MILDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT LATE MONDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS EVENING THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
THEREFORE...WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...A RELATIVELY NICE MID APRIL PERIOD.
925 MB FLOW OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS SHOULD MAIN A SHALLOW SURFACE BASED
INVERSION IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.  EXPOSED RIDGES WILL BE MILDER.
STILL HAVE THOSE SHELTERED AREAS NEAR FREEZING. SINCE THOSE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL...AND TO AVOID THE DOUBLE HEADLINE
WITH THE CURRENT FREEZING WARNING FOR DAWN WEDNESDAY...WILL NOT POST
ANY FREEZE WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z NAM AND CMC BOTH MORE AGGRESSIVE PULLING MOISTURE NNE UP THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY.  CONSENSUS WAS TO BE LESS
AGGRESSIVE...AND KEEP FORECAST TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS.  WILL HAVE SOME 20/30 POPS WORK INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND SOME 20/30 POPS INTO
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY STILL TRICKY...MAY COME DOWN TO HOW
MUCH CIRRUS WE HAVE.  SOME DOWNSLOPE INTO THE WESTERN LOWLANDS...YET
850 MB TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO WARM ABOVE 5C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PREFERRED SOLUTION WITH MAINLY LOW POPS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WILL REMAIN SEASONAL AS FAR
AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A STRATUS DECK WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT...LASTING LONGEST IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WEST
VIRGINIA. AFTER THE CLOUDS CLEAR LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A FEW SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING COULD
TEMPORARILY REDUCE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. TIMING OF STRATUS DECK
CLEARING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>032.
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...21/KTB/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY