Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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434 FXUS61 KRLX 271851 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 251 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak east to west frontal boundary just to our north will move little. Several disturbances and copious moisture will bring heavy rainfall potential Thursday into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Broad and very moist upper level low over the southern Mississippi Valley this afternoon...having pw`s above 2 inches...will move northeast later tonight and Thursday. There is model consensus of tracking the system across our area and targeting our area with heavy rain potential Thursday...a general 1 to 2 inch swath with locally heavier amounts in any training of storms. Enough instability available for thunderstorms despite the expected cloud shield...but does not look like a severe thunderstorm threat scenario at this time. Thus...with much of the area nearly saturated from yesterday...have issued an FFA with this system from 12z Thursday to 12Z Friday for a good part of our area. Have started conservatively...omitting parts of southeast Ohio and far southeast portions of the area from the watch based mainly on not receiving yesterdays rainfall. Otherwise any convection this afternoon...mainly in the south...will wane fairly early this evening with loss of heating. As the above mentioned system approaches...there will be a large shield of clouds ahead of it. Given that this system is very nearly tropical in nature...it probably will not be as dependent on solid diurnal heating to generate convection as we are used to. Thus...more confidence in issuing the FFA. It will continue to be warm and muggy tonight with the high dewpoints and increasing clods overnight. For Thursday...somewhat cooler only because of the clouds and showers and storms...but quite muggy. Highs in the lower to mid 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Several waves, surface and aloft, will impact the forecast area through the end of the week. The first will already be arriving Thursday morning riding along a warm front. Models seem to be coming into better agreement with this now, but with some differences still in place capped POPs around 80 percent. That wave should move through Thursday and head on its way Thursday night and pull a cold front south. A weak upper level shortwave trough follows for Friday and have likely POPs with this. Weak height rises behind this wave for Friday night with just low chance POPs lingering. Next surface wave approaching for Saturday. Models having a bit harder time resolving this one, but both GFS and ECMWF show QPF max across the mountains, so included some likely POPs again for Saturday afternoon across eastern third of CWA. Only minimal changes made to temperatures. With lots of clouds, expecting warm nights with average to just below average daytime highs. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Weather looks to remain unsettled for the first part of the extended period as additional disturbances move through the region. Drier weather possible early to mid next week as upper ridging strengthens across the region. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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18z Wednesday thru 18Z Thursday... Thru 02z...SCT showers and tstms developing but remaining rather disorganized and mainly south. VFR conditions will prevail outside any strong storms. After 02z...initially sct-bkn 5000-7000 feet AGL with loss of convection...then increasing clouds from the southwest. Becoming ceilings 5000-7000 feet 07z-12Z with SCT showers redeveloping over the south by 12z. Overnight fog also redevelops after 06z tonight with localized IFR/LIFR river valley fog expected...mainly north...and especially if clouds are slower to increase. After 12z Thursday...organized shield of showers and storms spreading northeast across the area with conditions lowering to MVFR/IFR...especially south and east...by 18z. Surface flow will be light and variable except for strong gusts in thunderstorms this afternoon. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog potential tonight depends greatly on cloud coverage. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR conditions in showers and thunderstorms through Thursday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Flash Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning for WVZ005>009-013>020-024>032-036>040-046-047. OH...Flash Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning for OHZ083-085>087. KY...Flash Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/SL NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JMV

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