-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 261928
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
328 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses late today with showers and thunderstorms. A
large upper level low drops into the area Wednesday and Wednesday
night, and then swirls about the area Thursday through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Monday...

Models have been in agreement with convection firing up ahead and
along a passing cold front this afternoon. Lightning data shows
lightning is more numerous ahead of the front over WV. These
storms will be in the vicinity of EKN, CRW, and BKW through
tonight. Any heavy rain could produce brief IFR/LIFR conditions
along their path. A cool breeze follow behind the front from the
northwest.

High resolution models have the front decaying as the cold front
as ir moves over our area. However, sfc CAPE and deep layered
shear can combine and produce tall thunderstorms through this
evening.

Tonight will bring clearing in the wake of the front, with a
brief period of IFR post-rain fog and stratus.

Populated Highs and lows closer to the super blend through the
period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 310 PM Monday...

Some seasonable Fall weather is finally on tap for the region.
A Broad upper low/trough will dig south across the
region and remain nearly stationary overhead. We will be mostly
clear Tuesday night and will have a cool start to the day on
Wednesday...as lows drop into the 40s just about everywhere.

The cool weather will remain through the end of the week as H500
anomaly of 2 to 3 standard deviations below normal expected with upper
low. As the upper low pushes in we can also expect an increase in
shower activity with cooling temps aloft and continued height
falls on Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 320 PM Monday...

Operational and ensemble guidance is in pretty good agreement with
large upper level low remaining overhead well into the weekend.
With the cool temperatures aloft...any daytime heating we receive
will quickly yield showers and possible isolated thunderstorms.
The good news is that this should bring some much needed rainfall
to the region and amounts will remain light enough so we are not
expecting any hydro issues. The upper low meanders northward
Sunday into Monday with ridging moving in behind it. This will
bring warm air back into the region with upper 70s to near 80
degrees for the start of the next work week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM Monday...

Radar and satellite images indicate convection ahead and along an
approaching cold front. The PCPN activity will reach southeast OH
by 18Z, then will spread east. So, expect MVFR/VFR conditions
along showers or storms.

Thunderstorms are evident ahead of the front in wV. These storms
could produce a brief IFR condition under heavy rain.

The front slowly exit the area to the east by 02z tonight.

A brief period of stratus and fog is likely to follow the cold
front tonight, although this may tend to linger in and near the WV
mountains.

Moderate southwest flow ahead of the front, will become light to
moderate west to northwest behind the front tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: The timing and impact of showers and
thunderstorms with the front this afternoon and early evening may
vary. Stratus and fog behind the front tonight may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    M    H    H    M    L    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    L    L    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    M    L    L    M    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    M    M    H    M    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
Morning valley fog possible Tuesday through Friday mornings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...ARJ