Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 240531 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 131 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSHOWERS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1030 PM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...QUITE TRANQUIL AS UPPER RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. THIS WILL BRING LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER CONDITIONS EACH DAY...INCLUDING MILDER NIGHTS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASE WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 5H RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SFC HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A BERMUDA HIGH FORECAST SCENARIO. THIS LEAVES FORECAST AREA UNDER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN LEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK. EFFECTS OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL MAINLY BE FELT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE. ACTIVITY MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURE WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN THE NORMAL RANGE THIS PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION IN DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY AS MORE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... DIRTY RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR IN DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. KEPT CHC OR BETTER POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES WILL BE RIDING NORTH IN SW FLOW THIS PERIOD. DIURNAL TRENDS BECOME LESS OF A FACTOR AS IMPULSES COULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS CARRIED SOME POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS AS WELL. MAINLY USED WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SOME PATCHY MVFR VALLEY FOG MAY FORM 08-12Z IN FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS INCLUDING KCRW AND KEKN. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY AT EKN MAY VARY. .AFTER 00Z MONDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.
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&& WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV NEAR TERM...JMV/SL SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...SL

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