Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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405 FXUS61 KRLX 180738 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 338 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure through most of this week, providing warm afternoons and cool nights. Weak upper level impulse mid week with some showers possible. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 120 AM Monday... Mainly quiet weather is expected today and tonight with weak high pressure remaining in the region. Highs this afternoon should be a degree or two warmer than Sunday. Have isolated to scattered showers across the mountainous counties of WV this afternoon and evening. Moisture is on the shallow side, but we had some showers POP up Sunday afternoon/evening so do not see a reason why today will be much different. Fairly strong cap in place just above the layer of best moisture, so did not include any thunder mention. For tonight, expect similar conditions to the past few nights with cool temperatures and dense valley fog. As an upper level ripple approaches from the west, do have a bit more cloud cover across the Tri-state area, so fog may not be quite as widespread of dense there. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Monday... A frontal boundary will stall just to our west on Tuesday. Its vicinity could bring some showers or storms to the area into Wednesday. Jose should remain east of the Atlantic coast, brushing the eastern seaboard per the latest NHC guidance. Meanwhile, a high pressure ridge at H500 with weak pressure gradient should result once again in a near calm flow. A continuation of fair forecast with unseasonably warm temperatures and a few diurnal showers still in the offing through mid week. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 AM Monday... By early Thursday, the frontal boundary lift north away from the area allowing high pressure to take control through the end of the week. Despite the high pressure, enough low level moisture and diurnal heating will combine to produce a few mountains showers each day. Also relied on blend for temperature forecast. Temperatures will run unseasonably warm for this time of year. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 120 AM Monday... Persistence forecast looks like a good bet tonight, with dense valley fog forming over the next couple hours. Have IFR at typical valley sites, improving 13Z-14Z. Isolated showers possible across the mountainous counties this afternoon and evening with another dose of dense river valley fog expected tonight. Winds will be light and generally out of the north today. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog formation tonight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 09/18/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L L M H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H M M L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M L L L L H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M L H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M H H M AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR in valley fog possible each morning this week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...MZ

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