Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 160255 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1055 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Rain and drizzle in and near the mountains fade as a cold front pushes south overnight. High pressure Saturday. Next cold front brings a cold start to the new work week, with snow showers.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 1055 PM Friday... Forecast largely on track. Light rain and drizzle in and near the mountains continues to gradually fade, as the cold front pushes sluggishly through the far southern portion of the forecast area. As of 120 PM Friday... A surface cold front continues to slowly work its way through the region from northwest to southeast through this evening. Ahead and along the cold front, patchy showers and perhaps an isolated rumble of thunder will be possible through the afternoon. Some patchy drizzle may briefly linger behind the cold front, but would not expect any additional measurable amounts. Could see some clearing toward dawn across southeast Ohio, which given light winds and recent rainfall could yield some fog heading into the morning Saturday and will code some up for these areas. Any fog or remnant low clouds should mix out into substantially drier air aloft by late morning with temperatures rising to near normal values for this time of year by the afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM Friday... A front will move south into the area late Saturday night/early Sunday, with light showers taking hold, mainly across northern zones. Gusty winds can be expected with this front, particularly across the northern mountain zones where stronger winds aloft will have the potential to affect mountain peaks, with gusts 30 to 40 mph common, possibly approaching advisory criteria at times on the highest peaks. By Monday, an upper trough will dig south across the area, bringing in colder air and light snowfall to the region, with light snow expected even across the lowlands. Accumulations should generally be limited to the higher terrain however due to the warm ground. In addition to the snow, CAA and increased pressure gradient will result in rather gusty winds, and this combined with the cooler temperatures will be a bit of a shock to the system after the warm weather. Wind chills will be in the teens to 20s at times Monday into Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1215 PM Friday... A cool northwesterly flow remains across the area on Tuesday, with the potential for another fast moving clipper type system affecting the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, with additional light snow, mainly across the northern mountains. Temperatures moderate towards the end of the period as heights build and southerly flow increases out ahead of another system, which looks to affect the area late in the week into the weekend. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 750 PM Friday... Low level moisture in the wake of a cold front will yield IFR conditions in stratus and at times rain, drizzle and fog in and near the mountains tonight, while MVFR stratocumulus persists across the middle Ohio Valley and central WV. This stratocu may break up overnight, allowing fog formation that could impact the terminals. IFR visibility was coded up before dawn at HTS and near dawn at CRW. For the mountains, BKW is likely to have concurrent IFR visibility and ceilings at times into the overnight hours. The stratus may then lift or break up at EKN and BKW before dawn, allowing fog to form which could cause visibility to lower to IFR. All sites should be back to VFR 13-14Z Saturday, although brief MVFR morning stratocu ceilings are possible. light north to northwest surface flow will become light west to southwest by dawn Saturday, and can become a bit gusty at PKB Saturday afternoon. Light northwest flow aloft overnight will become light west Saturday morning, and then light to moderate southwest Saturday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog overnight into Saturday morning could be more widespread and dense than advertised. Ceilings may fluctuate into Saturday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 03/16/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY L M M H H H M M M H M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H M H H L L L L L L M BKW CONSISTENCY L L H H H M M L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M L L L L M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M L M L M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H M H M AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JP/SL NEAR TERM...TRM/JP SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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