Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 240009 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 809 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Strong to severe thunderstorms are still possible this evening with a risk for heavy downpours as well. A cold front crosses tonight, and then another crosses Monday night. High pressure midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As 400 PM Sunday... Adjusted hourly and Max temperatures per latest sfc obs. Radar images show little if any light shower across the area. Therefore, decrease PoPs considerably and blend them into tonight`s PoPs with higher PoPs with the cold front. Cold front expected to cross around 06Z. Therefore, will cancel Flash Flood watch for the entire area. As of 150 PM Sunday... Severe threat for much of this afternoon a bit iffy, and SPC has cut back the threat from Slight to Marginal. Cloud cover from earlier convection continues to hang across the area, which will help to limit destabilization somewhat. However, models still indicating an uptick in activity later this evening and tonight, as upper shortwave trough digs south across the region, and surface cold front approaches from the west. Last night, quite a bit of precipitation from convection, with parts of southeast Ohio, northern WV and northeast Kentucky receiving a general 2 to 5 inches. Any additional convection today could create additional water issues on already saturated soils, and will keep flood watch going. Initial frontal boundary moves through late tonight, with precipitation gradually decreasing in coverage late. A secondary front will cross on Monday, with isolated convection, but overall, much drier. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 PM Sunday... The last gasp at any showers and thunderstorms during the overnight hours associated with a weak front will slide through the areas Monday night. Behind the front, high pressure will take its place. Drier air will greet the forecast area bring small reprieve from the muggy,stormy and hot weather on Tuesday. This does not last long though. Some Mountain showers and thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday into Wednesday night as moisture surges northward in combination with a weak shortwave. Temperatures will be very close to climatology through this period. High will generally be in the 80s with lows in the 60s in the lowlands. The mountains will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s during the day with overnight lowers in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 235 PM Sunday... The next cold front will move southeast from the Great Lakes Region late week. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front. Timing will need to be monitored as currently, models suggest moisture increases substantially by Friday afternoon. For now, will keep shower and thunderstorm chances in late week. Should trends continue, could have heavy rain with thunderstorms Friday into Saturday. Temperatures will continue to be seasonal through late week. Lowland highs will be in the lower to mid 80s with lows in the 60s. The mountains will feature highs in the lower 80s with lows in the lower 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 800 PM Sunday... VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Satellite images show mostly clear skies across our CWA. The exception is over extreme southwest VA where afternoon convection is evident in radar. This activity is expected to diminish in intensity by sunset, but will stay southeast of BKW. Additional disorganized convection is evident on radar across OH. Expect brief MVFR and IFR conditions in vicinity of storms perhaps could affect PKB and CKB overnight. VFR conditions will prevail once again Monday outside any shower. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Thunderstorm coverage could be more widespread than anticipated. MVFR and IFR cigs late tonight could be more widespread than currently forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 07/24/17 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY M M H M H H H H H M H L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M H M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H M M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY M M H L L M M M L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L M L AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... IFR Fog possible early Tuesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JB/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL SHORT TERM...JB LONG TERM...JB AVIATION...ARJ

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