Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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000
FXUS61 KRLX 160255
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1055 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Rain and drizzle in and near the mountains fade as a cold front
pushes south overnight. High pressure Saturday. Next cold front
brings a cold start to the new work week, with snow showers.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 1055 PM Friday...
Forecast largely on track. Light rain and drizzle in and near
the mountains continues to gradually fade, as the cold front
pushes sluggishly through the far southern portion of the
forecast area.
As of 120 PM Friday...
A surface cold front continues to slowly work its way through the
region from northwest to southeast through this evening. Ahead and
along the cold front, patchy showers and perhaps an isolated rumble
of thunder will be possible through the afternoon. Some patchy
drizzle may briefly linger behind the cold front, but would not
expect any additional measurable amounts.
Could see some clearing toward dawn across southeast Ohio, which
given light winds and recent rainfall could yield some fog heading
into the morning Saturday and will code some up for these areas. Any
fog or remnant low clouds should mix out into substantially drier
air aloft by late morning with temperatures rising to near normal
values for this time of year by the afternoon.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Friday...
A front will move south into the area late Saturday night/early
Sunday, with light showers taking hold, mainly across northern
zones. Gusty winds can be expected with this front, particularly
across the northern mountain zones where stronger winds aloft will
have the potential to affect mountain peaks, with gusts 30 to 40 mph
common, possibly approaching advisory criteria at times on the
highest peaks.
By Monday, an upper trough will dig south across the area, bringing
in colder air and light snowfall to the region, with light snow
expected even across the lowlands. Accumulations should generally be
limited to the higher terrain however due to the warm ground. In
addition to the snow, CAA and increased pressure gradient will
result in rather gusty winds, and this combined with the cooler
temperatures will be a bit of a shock to the system after the warm
weather. Wind chills will be in the teens to 20s at times Monday
into Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1215 PM Friday...
A cool northwesterly flow remains across the area on Tuesday, with
the potential for another fast moving clipper type system affecting
the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, with additional light snow,
mainly across the northern mountains. Temperatures moderate towards
the end of the period as heights build and southerly flow increases
out ahead of another system, which looks to affect the area late in
the week into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 750 PM Friday...
Low level moisture in the wake of a cold front will yield IFR
conditions in stratus and at times rain, drizzle and fog in and
near the mountains tonight, while MVFR stratocumulus persists
across the middle Ohio Valley and central WV. This stratocu may
break up overnight, allowing fog formation that could impact
the terminals. IFR visibility was coded up before dawn at HTS
and near dawn at CRW.
For the mountains, BKW is likely to have concurrent IFR
visibility and ceilings at times into the overnight hours. The
stratus may then lift or break up at EKN and BKW before dawn,
allowing fog to form which could cause visibility to lower to
IFR.
All sites should be back to VFR 13-14Z Saturday, although brief
MVFR morning stratocu ceilings are possible.
light north to northwest surface flow will become light west to
southwest by dawn Saturday, and can become a bit gusty at PKB
Saturday afternoon. Light northwest flow aloft overnight will
become light west Saturday morning, and then light to moderate
southwest Saturday afternoon.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog overnight into Saturday morning could
be more widespread and dense than advertised. Ceilings may
fluctuate into Saturday morning.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 03/16/24
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY L M M H H H M M M H M L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M H H L L L L L L M
BKW CONSISTENCY L L H H H M M L L L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M L L L L M M L
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M L M L M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H M H M
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JP/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JP
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM