Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 260702 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 302 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND HUMID AIR. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS THROUGH TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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WARM MOIST AIR ON THE MOVE KEEPS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FCST THIS PERIOD. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY IS LIMITED TO A KG PER KG OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON ON ACCOUNT OF MORNING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...AS PW VALUES RESIDE MAINLY BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES. OTHERWISE WEAK RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A S/W TROUGH DRIFTING NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...TO THE MIDWEST WED MORNING...WILL DRIVE CONVECTION TIMING. ONE RIPPLE WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO ERN KY EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. THE MAIN S/W TROUGH AXIS THEN LIFTS NEWD AND IS REPLACED BY ANOTHER...THE LARGER FEATURE EFFECTIVELY MUCH SLOWER THAN THE SMALLER RIPPLES WITHIN THE FLOW. THE TAIL END OF THE ORIGINAL S/W TROUGH APPROACHES THE FCST AREA FROM THE W LATE TODAY AND THEN CROSSES TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO PROGRESS GENERALLY FROM W TO E ACROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. THE STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH THE LATE DAY INSTABILITY...COULD LEAD TO STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF ONE IF FAR ENOUGH N AND W TO AVOID MUCH OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE HWO MENTION IN LINE WITH THE NEW SWODY1. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE STORMS WILL BE ON THE MOVE...LIMITING ANY HIGH WATER TO THE ACUTE POOR DRAINAGE VARIETY. BLENDED IN MOSGUIDE FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS ESPECIALLY E TODAY...STILL AT THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP. LOWS TONIGHT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND ACCEPTED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... DEEP LAYER S TO SW FLOW WITH ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE W. A FEW DISTURBANCES IN SW FLOW WILL PROVIDE A KICKER FOR ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. TIMING THESE FEATURES IS DIFFICULT...THUS WILL CARRY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING. WILL CONTINUE MENTION WITH SPC MARGINAL RISK TUE AND WED WHILE ALSO COVERING FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FOR TEMPS...STAYED MAINLY WITH INHERITED VALUES...WITH A SLIGHT BLEND TOWARD LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES WITH DID NOT RESULT IN MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST TRENDS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... FOLLOWED ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FRONT CROSSES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SOME COOLING AND DRYING NORTH AND WEST. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP POPS COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FORECAST SO LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH FRONT BEING IN THE AREA. THUS...SUMMER LIKE BROAD BRUSH OF CHC POPS CARRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE...AND RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW...SPELL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS KEEPS CONFIDENCE AT MEDIUM...WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING/MOVING UP FROM THE S EARLY TUE MORNING...PLUS TIMING NEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM THE WSW LATE IN THE DAY TUE. HAVE CIGS MAINLY ATOP MIXING LAYER 4-5 KFT AND PREVAILING VFR VSBY. A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR IS LIKELY AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH TUE MORNING...BUT IFR IS POSSIBLE IN A HEAVIER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. AFTER A RELATIVE AFTERNOON LULL...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE FROM THE W LATE TUE OR TUE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT S TO SE BY NT AND S TO SW BY DAY...WITH MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY DIFFER FROM FORECAST. .AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT TUE NT INTO WED MORNING...AND RAIN INDUCED LOW STRATUS AND FOG. IFR MAY LINGER THROUGH MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...TRM

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