Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 082237 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 637 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING NOW. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AIR TO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.. ANOTHER SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 635 PM UPDATE...TWEAKED SKY GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT OBS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS POINT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... CONVECTION HAS FIRED ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC...WINDS ARE PRIMARILY THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS...ALTHOUGH BETTER DYNAMICS ARE CLEARLY NORTH OF OUR CWA IN PITTSBURGH AND STATE COLLEGE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES NOT QUITE IN THE 40KT RANGE...AND HAS AN ORIENTATION THAT IS MORE PARALLEL TO THE CURRENT LINE. THIS HINDERS THE WIND POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. BEHIND THE FRONT...SOME BRIEF STABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD ERODE FROM THE MID LEVELS AGAIN INTO THE EVENING WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A SECOND ROUND OF MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION THAN ANYTHING. HAVE KEPT THE POPS LINGERING THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING HOURS...EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY THE WESTERN ZONES OUT OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS STAY UP OVERNIGHT WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS LINGERING...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FALLS TODAY...WHICH WILL BE AT MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. EXPECTING DIURNAL CUMULUS WEDNESDAY THAT MAY LOOK ROBUST AT TIMES...BUT VERY LIMITED IN THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE ABOVE THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED SHOWERS...OR A BRIEF STORM OR TOW...CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY/EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH A BRIEF AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS WILL BRING COOLER HIGH PRESSURE DOWN OVER THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS AROUND 60. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND. OF COURSE...THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK AND ESPECIALLY THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING OUR AREA MAINLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH INCREASING HEAT...HUMIDITY AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LEAVES SATURDAY AS A TRANSITION DAY WITH DRY WEATHER...BUT HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING TO INCREASE AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LINE OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED QUICKLY AND WILL BE CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER SOON. CKB...EKN...AND PKB ARE IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...PRIMARILY FOR WIND...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW WITH THE APPROACHING LINE...WINDS ALOFT ARE PARALLEL TO THE LINE AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST. THIS WILL HAMPER THE WIND GUSTS SOMEWHAT...SO WILL KEEP TAF GUSTS BELOW 40KTS. TIMING THE LINE IS USUALLY TRICKY...AND THIS IS NO EXCEPTION. TEMPOS WERE A NECESSITY TODAY BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT WORKED TO KEEP THEM UNDER 2 HOURS. MAY GET SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN. WINDS WILL GUST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO 25KTS. THERE WILL BE A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE NEXT TWO HOURS...BUT THE WIND SHIFT WILL BE MINIMAL TO NONE...AND IT SHOULD NOT AFFECT VELOCITIES AS MUCH AS THE LINE OF STORMS. GETTING INTO TONIGHT BECOMES CHALLENGING AS WELL. LOCALES RECEIVING RAIN...AS TYPICAL...WILL HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT FOG...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE WIND MAY TRY TO STAY ABOVE CALM. THIS WILL MAKE FOG/MIST DEVELOPMENT QUESTIONABLE...BUT THE SYNOPTIC WIND MAY BE TRUMPED BY MESO HIGH AIR FROM CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THE CONVECTIVE OCCURRENCES...JUST NOT THE TIMING AS MUCH. FOG/MIST TONIGHT IS ALSO IN QUESTION. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY... WITH LINGERING IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...SL/26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...26

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