Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251838 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 238 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SINKS INTO SE OHIO AND NRN WEST VIRGINIA LATE SUNDAY. FRONT WASHES OUT IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. STRONGER FRONT ABOUT THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... WEAK CONFLUENT PATTERN POSSIBLE 925 TO 850 MB LAYER OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK W-NW FLOW WEST OF MOUNTAINS AND WEAK SE FLOW EAST OF MOUNTAINS. CELLS FIRING NEAR BLUE RIDGE AFTER 18Z IN SRN VA. WITH STEERING CURRENT TO THE SE...MOST IF NOT ALL...OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR EAST...SO ONLY LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER OUR FAR EASTERN MOUNTAINS FOR REST OF THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE DAYTIME CU SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET...BUT HAVE MORE STRATOCU CLOUDS POSSIBLE INTO SE OHIO AND NRN WV 06Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. SO CONTINUED THE THEME MENTIONED IN THE LATE MORNING UPDATE. WILL HAVE THE THICKER VALLEY FOG FROM EKN VCNTY ON SSW INTO THE SRN WV COAL FIELDS. WITH CLOUDS SLOW TO INCREASE AND LIGHT WINDS...IN INTERIOR WV AND SW VA...DID LOWER MIN TEMP ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO. BASING FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT REACHING INTO OUR SE OHIO BY 21Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS TRY TO TURN TO WEAK NW EVEN SE OF THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY. WILL BE A BIT SLOWER INCREASING POPS IN SRN COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND ONLY INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. STILL HAVING POPS AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT 18Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY ALONG THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR. 850 TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO WARMER SUNDAY...SO HAVE SOME 90S MENTIONED IN THE SRN WV COAL FIELD VALLEYS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... WEAK FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE A GRADUAL DECREASING TREND IN THE POPS AS THE FRONT WEAKENS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE PERIODS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH SHOULD KEEP BEST CHANCE OF POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. ALOFT...HEIGHTS ARE BUILDING INTO MID WEEK AS A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHOULD BRING US A GOOD WARMUP...SO WENT WARMER THAN WPC GUIDANCE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE POPS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WEST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD... MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...WITH THE EURO JUST A TOUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS...SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR BOTH TEMPS AND PRECIP. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OUR AREA BY FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AN ELONGATED RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...PROVIDING A TEMPORARY LULL IN SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WHICH MODELS GENERALLY BRING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOW THIS FEATURE...BUT DIFFER AS TO WHERE THE LOW MAY EVENTUALLY TRACK. CONSIDERING THIS UNCERTAINTY...BROUGHT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MOSTLY SCATTERED CU AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT AGL. SOME BUILD UPS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...SO ISOLATED CELL POSSIBLE IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY... BUT BETTER CHANCES FURTHER SE...TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE OF VIRGINIA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS MAY INCREASE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 06Z TO 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWER MOSTLY ROUTE 50 NORTH BEFORE 18Z SUNDAY. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...LIMITED THE THICKER FOG TO THE DEEPER INTERIOR WV RIVER VALLEYS FROM EKN VCNTY ON SSW INTO THE COAL FIELDS OF SOUTHERN WV. THIS LEAVES CRW ON THE GRADIENT. FIGURING PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES IN THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD PREVENT THICK FOG THERE. TRIED TO LIMIT ANY IFR AT CRW TO AN HOUR OR 2 JUST BEFORE DAWN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM BY 18Z SUNDAY IN SOUTHEAST NEAR THE COLD FRONT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...FOG MAY BE BRIEFLY THICKER THAN FORECAST AT CRW AND HTS DURING THE PREDAWN AND DAWN TIME FRAME SUNDAY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ/DTC NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...DTC AVIATION...KTB

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