-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
042
FXUS61 KRLX 071104
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
704 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Remaining hot today, while humidity increases. Shower and storm
chances return, especially along and northwest of the Ohio
River. Storms possible daily for the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Monday...

Today will mark a regime change from hot and mostly dry to
warm and more humid, with daily storm chances. At the same time,
the remnants of Tropical Depression Chantal spin over Virginia
and bring a few showers to our northern mountains mainly pre-
dawn Monday, but most of that system`s precip will remain along
and east of I-81.

Otherwise, we look to have a dry morning across the region
before some showers and storms may start to work into our Ohio
counties in the early afternoon hours as a front pushes
southeast across Ohio. The activity may become more robust and
spread towards the Mid-Ohio Valley for the mid-afternoon into
the evening as the front nears the CWA, and given PWAT values of
1.5-2.0 inches or more, we could definitely see some heavy rain
rates. Ideally the storms look like they could have enough
motion (potentially 20kts+) to avoid any water issues, but given
nearly unidirectional flow from the surface up and Corfidi
upshear vectors of 10kts or less, there is some concern for
training or backbuilding. WPC has painted the MOV and southeast
Ohio with a marginal risk of excessive rainfall, and that is
sensible given expected storm coverage.

Widespread ML CAPE values over 1500 J/kg seem likely tomorrow
afternoon, so robust vertical growth can be expected. However,
limited shear will limit severe potential, and SPC has kept us
out of any outlook area for now. Activity looks to diminish
after dark with the loss of daytime heating, but the warm and
humid conditions will likely keep some modest CAPE (either
surface-based or elevated) to maintain some shower and storm
activity into the night.

It should still get hot enough to combine with dew points in the
low to possibly mid-70s to bring heat index values to the
doorstep of Heat Advisory criteria, and some areas may crack a
100F heat index briefly. But it doesn`t look to be widespread
and may only happen briefly, less than two hours at most spots
where it does occur, so in coordination with the neighbors we
opted to handle the heat with an SPS rather than an Advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Monday...

The front may sag a bit further south and southeast Monday
night into Tuesday, likely winding up in our northwestern and
northern counties. However, that slight advance is enough to
shift the greatest POPs on Tuesday from southeast Ohio across
the Ohio River and into the rest of the CWA. Same rules apply
otherwise, with very juicy air and sufficient instability
leading to scattered or numerous heavy showers and storms, some
with locally very heavy rainfall. Instability may not be quite
as strong as Monday, but the concern for training and
backbuilding storms will remain. As a result, the marginal
flooding risk for Tuesday covers almost the whole CWA.

The front may remain stalled over or just north of the northern
tier of our CWA on Wednesday, and scattered showers and storms
will persist as a result. Chances may be a bit higher over the
mountains and in the southern portion of the CWA, but there is
enough uncertainty on storm placement on day 3 that the entire
CWA is assessed as a marginal risk for excessive rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 AM Monday...

The POP forecast increases for Thursday as the current thinking
is that a wave will move east along the front, tracking across
the Midwest north of the Ohio River. While the wave is likely to
be fairly weak, it would enhance storm coverage along the front
and in the warm sector to the south. However, heading into later
this week and the weekend, uncertainty increases on the details
of the front`s placement and the effects of any waves that may
move along the front. But through the balance of the long-term,
we can expect to remain along or on the warm side of the front,
keeping us locked into this warm and humid pattern, and thus we
should anticipate a daily afternoon maximum in shower and storm
activity, and an overnight minimum. The uncertainty at this
lead time will generally keep the PM maxima below categorical
POPs (75% or more), but each day will feature high-end chance to
likely POPs. As mentioned in previous discussions, the front
doesn`t seem likely to kick through the area until sometime
early next week, beyond this 7-day forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 130 AM Monday...

Some mid-level and high clouds linger over the northeastern
quadrant of the CWA this morning, but otherwise we are clear,
and largely fog-free. Gentle to moderate SW-W`ly breezes will
pick up in the mid to late-morning hours, and some scattered
cumulus will likely develop. A few gusts up around 15 knots will
be possible around the area.

A front approaching across Ohio will bring some showers and
storms to Southeast Ohio starting around 18z. They will likely
push into the Mid-Ohio Valley and possibly north-central WV,
but at this lead time opted to go mainly with VCSH and PROB30
groups rather than prevailing for TSRA activity. Did go with
a TEMPO group for PKB, where the chances are highest. Showers
and storms diminish after 00z, but a few likely linger later
into the evening.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and coverage of fog may vary from
the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 07/07/25
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under heavy showers or
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours,
each day this week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...FK