Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 142323 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 723 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather to start the work and school week. High pressure brings drier weather on Wednesday but returning to unsettled pattern to end the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 720 PM Tuesday... Added POPs tonight over the north central portion of West Virginia and into the mountains tonight with a deformation axis in the low levels forcing the activity in these areas. No thunder, except slight chance over the southern mountains, but this might be unnecessary as well. As of 225 PM Monday... A low to the southwest continues to usher moisture into the area. An initial wave with showers should completely exit east of the area by mid afternoon. There will be a drier spell with isolated showers, before a second wave moves through overnight, tonight bringing more widespread rain. Low temperatures should be in the mid 60s throughout the area, with cooler temps in the mountains. It will stay cloudy overnight, with some clearing in the morning over Southeast Ohio. Light valley fog will develop overnight due to saturated ground, and become thicker by the early morning hours. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 420 PM Monday... The short term period is characterized by weak high pressure with nearly zonal flow at the apex of a broad upper level ridge centered over the southeastern CONUS. A strengthening system up stream will enhance southwesterly flow bringing in higher temperatures and more abundant moisture through mid-week. Starting Wednesday night, numerous boundaries wrapping around the developing cyclone to our northwest are in play to act upon the available moisture to generate scattered showers and storms. Storms will increase through Thursday night as temperatures and heights aloft fall. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 420 PM Monday... There is still disagreement regarding the evolution of the surface low and associated fronts culminating in some key differences amongst the primary long-term models. Per the WPC guidance, the forecast hedges toward the GFS more closely with a weaker, more northward-tracking low. The result is a cold front at our doorstep over Ohio/Indiana by Friday morning. This solution leaves plenty of time for the growth of afternoon instability - this warrants an eye on severe weather potential through the end of Friday with the passage of the cold front. Wind shear and lapse rates don`t appear to be overly impressive at this time, though a strengthening upper level jet may change this. After frontal passage, wrap-around mountain showers are expected until mean zonal flow and somewhat drier weather returns for the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 720 PM Monday... Change in the aviation forecast for the evening issuance as forecast soundings indicate ceilings lowering to the IFR range in saturated low levels of the atmosphere. That may not completely inhibit some visibility restrictions, so patchy IFR is possible here as well, but will avoid any LIFR at this time. Showers likely tonight developing with some forcing across north central West Virginia and in the mountains. No thunder expected, except near BKW after 17Z Tuesday. Surface winds less than 10kts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of ceilings and visibilities could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M L M L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H L L L L L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H M M M L L EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H M M M M M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L M L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L L L L L AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms this week. Dense river valley fog also possible each morning depending on clouds. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SL/MC NEAR TERM...SL/26 SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...26

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