Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 230546 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 146 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure with warmer temperatures today. Warm front Thursday night/Friday morning. Unsettled with waves of low pressure over the weekend and early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 140 AM Thursday... No significant changes were necessary to the previous forecast. High pressure remains in control during the period with dry, and warmer weather, as the high slides off to the east and upper heights build across the region. Still quite dry air in place, with somewhat poor relative humidity recoveries across spots overnight. Looking at another low RH day today, with RH`s bottoming out in the teens to 20s. The good news is, overall surface winds should remain somewhat light. Warm frontal boundary will lift north across the region later tonight, with increasing clouds, and a slight chance for showers across the far north.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 310 PM Wednesday... A sfc low pressure system approaches from the west to increase clouds, winds and chances for PCPN Saturday. Models indicate that an associated warm front will oscillate back and forth across the northern sections through Sunday. Models are in agreement that the low pressure center weakens as it moves across the Appalachians Monday. A cold front moves across the area from west to east to enhance winds and probability of PCPN. Coded likely to categorical PoPs with this feature per model consensus. South to southwest flow brings warm and moist advection to create warm temperatures Friday through the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 310 PM Wednesday... The low pressure system opens up while over extreme southwest VA Sunday, dragging a weakening Pacific cold front across, with the likelihood for showers and the chance for mainly afternoon thunderstorms. Very weak Pacific high pressure follows for Sunday night and Monday, leaving a lot of residual moisture resulting in plenty of clouds, and even spotty light precipitation. Another upper level trough approaches Monday night, pushing a warm front, perhaps along with a warm wave, across the area Monday night. A cold front may approach on Tuesday, depending upon the influence of the northern stream. Temperatures closer to the blend of models through the period. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 115 AM Thursday... VFR conditions for the period with light southerly surface winds. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 03/23/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR possible in rain Saturday night and Sunday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...SL

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