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000
FXUS61 KRLX 181820
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
220 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall this afternoon into Monday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of Noon Sunday...

Forecast on track. The 12Z Nam12 does show convection firing
early this afternoon near the Ohio River, and then moving east
across the area this afternoon into this evening. While this was
not entirely bought into yet, the PoP grids were nudged
slightly inn that direction. The best shear and CAPE continue
to be shown west of the Ohio river through this afternoon.

As of 330 AM Sunday...

Warm and humid air remains over the region today. Model soundings
indicate that dry mid level air will help inhibit convection this
afternoon in the Logan to Charleston to Clarksburg/Elkins area.
Elsewhere, moisture should be sufficient for scattered
thunderstorms, especially over southeast Ohio.

A cold front will then push into the area tonight with numerous
showers and thunderstorms expected. Will raise pops in the western
counties where storms will arrive during or slightly after the
daytime heating. Due to the slow movement of the front, a bit
concerned about training of storms. Will have to monitor this
situation closely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Sunday...

The front looks to still be in the vicinity Monday morning, waiting
for another piece of energy within the upper trof to swing around.
This will tend to ramp up the showers and storms once again,
especially east of the Ohio River. The threat for flash flooding
will continue as a result. Everything finally pushes east Monday
evening.

The upper trof settles in across the region on Tuesday with lower
humidity and drier weather. Some of the models are hinting at a
secondary front pivoting through in the afternoon and early evening,
resulting in perhaps a few showers.

The longwave trof lifts out on Wednesday with quasi zonal flow left
in its wake. There may be a few after showers across the northern
mountains, otherwise a dry day looks to be on tap with temps
beginning to rebound.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 355 AM Sunday...

Somewhat zonal flow with fast hard to time features in the extended.
The overall theme will be for shower/storm chances to ramp back up
on Friday and Saturday with perhaps some Gulf moisture getting
involved.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 220 PM Sunday...

A cold front will bring heavy showers and strong thunderstorms
to the area this afternoon into tonight, with the potential for
heavy rain overnight and Monday.

The threat for the strongest thunderstorms will be through 02Z
tonight in the middle Ohio valley. Any of these thunderstorms
can bring wind gusts to 40 kts or greater, along with IFR
conditions.

The showers and thunderstorms will move eastward overnight. the
thunderstorms will weaken after sunset, but heavy rain remains
possible. IFR is most likely during and after the heavier
rainfall overnight into Monday morning. The rain will persist in
the mountains into Monday afternoon. The rain will end from west
to east across the middle Ohio Valley Monday morning, allowing
for slowly improving conditions.

Gusty southwest winds this afternoon will become light and
variable tonight and Monday. Moderate southwest flow aloft this
afternoon and tonight will become light west to southwest on
Monday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High early on, deteriorating to medium
tonight.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms in the mountains Monday.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM