-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 042045
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
345 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STORM OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT REMAINING MOSTLY TO
OUR SOUTHEAST. RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY QUIET IN THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD WITH NEAR-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING
OVERNIGHT MINS. CONTINUED TREND OF GOING ON THE LOW END OF MOS
GUIDANCE WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT AND CALM WIND...WITH SNOW
COVER. STILL EXPECT GENERAL TEENS FOR THE LOWLANDS WITH LOW 20S IN
THE COALFIELDS...AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN HIGH
VALLEYS. HIGH PEAK AREAS SUCH AS SNO WILL REMAIN WARMER...IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...MUCH LIKE THIS MORNING.

MUCH IF NOT ALL OF WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS WELL...WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES AND MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FROM PREV FCST
WITH MAX TEMPS...BUT BASED ON PROGGED 850MB/925MB TEMPS DID LOWER BY
A DEGREE OR TWO. STILL EXPECT A PRETTY GOOD TEMP DIFFERENCE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AND PARTICULARLY OVER THE FAR NW
ZONES. LOCATIONS IN PERRY COUNTY OH STILL MAY STRUGGLE TO BREAK THE
FREEZING MARK...WHILE WYOMING/MCDOWELL COUNTY WV MAY TOP 50 DEGREES.
EXPECTING LOW/MID 40S FOR THE HTS-CRW CORRIDOR IN BETWEEN. A S/W
TROUGH CURRENTLY OUT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DIVE E/SE
AND AMPLIFY A BIT WITH SOME MOISTURE STREAMING OUT EAST OF IT IN
AFOREMENTIONED ZONAL FLOW...WITH A LATEST NAM12 POINT SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE NW ZONES INDICATING FAIRLY DECENT MOISTURE DEPTH ABOVE
850MB. CONSIDERED INSERTING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE IN THE
PERIOD WITH THIS. NOT FINDING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY GOOD LIFTING
WITH THIS FEATURE...AT LEAST PRIOR TO 00Z THU...AND ELECTED TO KEEP
FORECAST DRY FOR THE NEAR-TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WELL DEFINED WESTERLY SPLIT FLOW ALOFT REGIME CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NATION...WITH A DOMINATING NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS
WILL SUPPRESS A SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON THURSDAY NIGHT...GIVING ONLY A TOKEN CHANCE OF A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. THUS...A
MODERATING AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THIS PERIOD...AS THE COLDEST AIR GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. IN GENERAL...MAINLY DRY WITH A
MODERATING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 40S TO THE
AROUND 50 FOR HIGHS THIS PERIOD...WITH LOWS STILL COLD GIVEN THE
MOSTLY DRY AIR...LINGERING SNOW COVER...AND LIGHT WINDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED.  NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES
WITH WNW FLOW ALOFT AS L/W TROUGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA.  THIS
IS A HIGH HEIGHT WNW FLOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NRN
STREAM...SO TEMPERATURES STAY CLOSE TO NORMAL.  ALSO...SRN STREAM
AND ITS SERIES OF SMALL CLOSED OFF LOWS...REMAINS PRECARIOUSLY
CLOSE...SO THAT ANY OF THESE CLOSED LOWS CAN EVENTUALLY BECOME AN
ISSUE.  THE ECMWFHIRES HAS BACKED OFF ON ONE OF THESE FOR DAY
7...ITS PREVIOUS SOLN SHOWING ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
RIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

PERIOD OPENS WITH E COAST STORM HAVING JUST PAST S OF THE AREA...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED OFF LOW.  FCST AREA
REMAINS DRY FRI NT INTO SAT UNDER SFC RIDGING BETWEEN IT...AND NEXT
NRN STREAM COLD FRONT.  THIS...WHICH CROSSES LATE SAT...AND THE NEXT
FRONT...WHICH CROSSES DAY 7 TUE...DO NOT FEATURE ARCTIC OUTBREAKS IN
THEIR WAKE LIKE THEIR PREDECESSORS DID...AS THE PATTERN IS LESS
AMPLIFIED.  AS SUCH...THESE FRONTS DO NOT FEATURE MUCH INFLOW AHEAD
OF THEM EITHER...SO ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT.

BLENDED IN SOME MEX / BIAS CORRECTED MEX AND MOSGUIDE TEMPERATURES.
NOT FAR FROM WPC...AND CLOSE TO PREVIOUS EXCEPT ON HIGHS
LATE...WHICH WERE CONSIDERABLY LOWER.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD WITH ONLY
PASSING HIGH AND OCCASIONAL MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL...SHIFTING FROM SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND A WEAK SFC TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE EXCEPTION TO VFR CONDITIONS MAY COME AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS
EKN...WHERE ANOTHER SURFACE BASED INVERSION MAY RESULT IN
INTERMITTENT HIGH MVFR VIS IN BR AND/OR HZ.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FEW/SCT LOW CLOUDS
PRIMARILY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...50