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000
FXUS61 KRLX 211920
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
320 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
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Dry weather is expected with temperatures running much above normal
through the work week as upper ridging remains overhead. Dry cold
front late Saturday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 105 PM Wednesday...

High pressure in control tonight and Thursday. Based on the
performance of MOS guidance over the last couple of days...will go
on the lower side of MOS guidance tonight...and on the warmer side
during the daytime.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 310 PM Wednesday...

Quiet but continued hot weather in the short term. The upper ridge
does get pinched over the region Friday and Saturday...allowing a
back door cold front to make a run for the region. However...trend
is for this to be mainly dry and for much of the cooler weather
behind it to stay over NE portions of the CWA.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 310 PM Wednesday...

What looked like a promising legit Autumn front for early next
week has been squashed by the global models. The emerging trend
is for the blocking pattern to set up where the upper low/trof is
further west than in previous runs. This keeps the area under the
influence of upper level ridging thru early next week with a
continuation of much above normal temperatures. In fact we may not
be done with 90 degrees across NE KY/S WV.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 105 PM Wednesday...

A high pressure system will be in control tonight and Thursday.
Expect VFR conditions outside of late night/early morning fog. The
fog should generally be confined to valleys in and near the
mountains.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High...except medium in fog overnight.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/location of fog forming overnight could
vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
Dense valley fog is possible most mornings this week.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY