Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
368 FXUS61 KRLX 181836 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 236 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK DISTURBANCES AND WARM MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY. DRYER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SCATTERED POPCORN CONVECTION IS BEING SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS MOIST AIRMASS HEATS UP IN BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION NOTED OVER EASTERN KY AND SOUTHERN OH...AS WEAK VORT FEATURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IT APPEARS THE LATEST RAP RUNS HAVE A FAIR HANDLE ON THE OVERALL MASS FIELDS AND THE PROGRESSION OF FEATURES ACROSS TONIGHT. USED A RATHER BROAD BRUSH APPROACH TO COVER POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. HAVE FRONT CROSSING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. SPEED UP TIMING SLIGHTLY...BY AN HOUR OR TWO...NOT MUCH TO REALLY MAKE A CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. FOR TEMPS...WILL SEE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TUESDAY OVER TODAYS HIGHS AS COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN...WITH DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... MADE NO REAL CHANGES WITH THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST. RAISED POPS A BIT IN THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PW VALUES ARE IN THE 1.5-1.75 INCHES RANGE AHEAD THE FRONT SO THE PROSPECT OF HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT IS STILL POSSIBLE. EVEN WITH ALL OF THE RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN UP TO THIS POINT THE GROUND SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE SITUATION SO NO REAL CONCERNS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION. IT DRIES OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST GIVING ZONAL FLOW FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. WENT MAINLY WITH ALL BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO FOCUS ON IN THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL US AND THAT WILL LEAVE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH AS THERE COULD BE A FEW UPPER LEVEL RIPPLES CAUSED BY THE WEAK FRONT THAT PASSES TO THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING ON SUNDAY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ITS DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN...AT LEAST FOR ONE MORE DAY. WILL SEE ISOLD TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD IFR IN MORE INTENSE CONVECTIVE CELLS. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRODUCING SOME LOCAL SFC GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. LATEST RADAR SHOWING A SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF...ALBEIT WEAK...CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF EASTERN KY WHICH SHOULD TRACK ACROSS WESTERN WV AND SE OH THROUGH 23Z. ELSEWHERE WILL SEE MORE ISOLD DEVELOPMENT FOR THE REMAINING DAYLIGHT HOURS. AREAS THAT GET RAIN WILL SEE SOME FOG AFTER 10Z AND WILL ALSO SEE FOG IN AND ALONG THE RIVERS...MUCH THE SAME AS PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE KEKN...WHERE FOG SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE PREVALENT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF MORNING IFR. HOWEVER...A FRONT WILL PASS ON TUESDAY...AND THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE ALONG THE OH RIVER BY AROUND 12Z. IT WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...HELPING TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVELS FOR SOME DRIER CONDITIONS TO CLOSE OUT THE PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF STORMS COULD HIGHER THAN EXPECTED...WITH ORE AREAS SEEING IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... FOG/LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TUE NT INTO WED MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ NEAR TERM...KMC SHORT TERM...FB LONG TERM...FB AVIATION...KMC

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.