Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 180717 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 317 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE AND MUGGY AIR BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY SOUTH TODAY. THIS BEGINS A VERY WARM...HUMID AND ACTIVE PATTERN WITH SYSTEMS NEARLY EVERYDAY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. PW VALUES HAVE INCREASED QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LAST 24 HOURS...GENERALLY AROUND 1.6 INCHES OR SO ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA AS EVIDENCED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES...AND AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS. TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...AREA OF PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...PROGGED TO ADVECT INTO OUR REGION TODAY AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST INTO THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS FEATURE...JUST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...AND EXPECTING HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS IN SOUTHERN ZONES...GENERALLY WHERE THE FFA IS IN PLACE. OVERALL...CAN EXPECT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF OVER 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. WAVE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A BRIEF BREAK OF PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN ON TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD THOUGH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WEST VA AND VA. CONTINUED TO PLAY THE TREND OF SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE LESS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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WITH SCHOOL UNDERWAY IN MANY LOCATIONS...IT APPEARS SUMMER IS FINALLY GETTING UNDER WAY IN ERNEST. AN ACTIVE...VERY WARM AND HUMID PATTERN ENSUES WITH A NEARLY DAILY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE ACTIVE...THE SYSTEMS ARE NOT NEAR AS AMPLIFIED AS THEY HAD BEEN MOST OF THE ACTUAL SUMMER...WITH NO SIGNS OF THE INTRUSIONS OF REFRESHING CANADIAN AIR THAT WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR...TO THE POINT WHERE THE LAST COOL SPELL MAY BE LOOKED AT THE END OF LAST SPRING RATHER THAN A HARBINGER OF THE UPCOMING FALL. TUE MORNING FINDS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM MOVING IN EARLY THIS MORNING....WITH LOTS OF STRATUS AND SOME FOG. OTHERWISE HAVE THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY DRY PRECIPITATION WISE EARLY ON. HOWEVER...THE EXITING SYSTEM DOES NOT FEATURE MUCH FORCING FOR DOWNWARD MOTION NOR MUCH DRYING...SO TOUGH TO REMOVE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE ENTIRE AREA OR FOR VERY LONG. UPPER FLOW REMAINS DIFFLUENT AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. ITS APPROACH...AND DIURNAL HEATING...LEAD TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCE ANYWHERE IN THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING W TO E DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH AMPLE IF NOT TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND 30 KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW IN LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHEAR...THE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BECOME QUITE STRONG AND HEAVY TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MENTION SO IN HWO WITH SWODY2 SEE TEXT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SYSTEM PULLS OUT TUE NT/WED MORNING...BUT AGAIN WITHOUT MUCH NEGATIVE FORCING NOR CHANGE OF AIR MASS. NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS A NEAR REPEAT PERFORMANCE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXCEPT FOR LESS MID LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND A LITTLE LESS MOISTURE...SO THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG NOR HEAVY. THIS SYSTEM EXITS OVERNIGHT...BUT AGAIN WITHOUT A CLEAN BREAK...AS A FRONT REMAINS JUST N OF THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL SW FLOW CONTINUES BENEATH W TO NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW THE ENTIRE TIME. ALSO KEEP MENTION OF FLOODING CONCERN IN HWO PER REPETITIVE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS...WITH LOWS BECOMING A RATHER MONOTONE FCST...BUT SOME BUST POTENTIAL ON HIGHS DEPENDING UPON TIMING AND DISTRIBUTION OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WARM FRONT BRINGS RAIN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE THEME OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. EURO POINTS TO A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RAMIFICATIONS THAT WOULD LIE OUTSIDE OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WINDOW. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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LESS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR FOG...PARTICULARLY AT SITES KCKB...KEKN...AND FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT KPKB. GENERALLY...ACROSS THE SOUTH...MVFR FOG AND CIGS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...GENERALLY AFTER 08Z...WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED...GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN WV...SOUTHWEST VA...AND EASTERN KY...WHERE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE LIKELY...PARTICULARLY AFTER 12Z. ACROSS THE NORTH...INCLUDING AT SITS KPKB AND KCKB...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY AFTER 15-16Z...BUT LESS NUMEROUS...AND LESS LIKELY TO PRODUCE ANYTHING OTHER THAN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AFTER 00-03Z...HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 08/18/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L M M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN POST RAIN STRATUS AND FOG INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND SUBSEQUENT MORNINGS...AND IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005-006- 013>015-024>027-033>038. OH...NONE. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ102-103-105. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...SL

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