Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 222336 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 736 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak disturbances drop southeast into Saturday. Front stalls in Upper Ohio Valley Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Update... Convection decreasing in coverage this evening...but will not be in a hurry to end POPS completely. Will revisit these grids with the next update later this evening. Previous Discussion... Latest radar mosaic shows showers/storms were moving/developing southeast across our southeast Ohio...Northeast Kentucky and along the Ohio River in West Virginia. These storms appear to be the result of an upper level disturbance which is moving toward the area. This feature is expected to generally remain west of our forecast area. However... models suggest these storms could continue to mainly impact our western counties into the late evening hours. Precipitable water values top 2 inches along and west of the Ohio River, indicating downpours are also possible in any thunderstorms. Did not make any major changes for the overnight period. While most of the storms should dissipate before midnight...an isolated storm or two could continue during the overnight hours. Saturday could be the hottest day of the year so far. Latest temp guidance is warmer than our previous forecast for highs and have tweaked our MaxT grid up a degree or two. Felt our forecasted dewpoint temps may have been a little high...so have tweaked them down. Current thinking is that heat indices will top out between 100 and 105 Saturday afternoon across our western counties. Only fly in the ointment would be debris clouds from overnight that may act to keep daytime temps down. Have issued a Heat Advisory for portions of southeast Ohio... northeast Kentucky and the western counties of West Virginia. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Models have backed off a bit from any debris clouds to contend with on Sunday. Not fully sold on this and continued with some low pops but allowed for temps similar to Saturday with the potential for another heat advisory issuance. A weak cold front along with an elongating s/w trof will approach on Monday with convection chances increasing across the area. As this features approach...the upper ridge will flatten as the overall pattern turns more zonal with generally weak flow through the atmosphere. As such expect the unsettled wx to continue overnight until waning some late. Torrential downpours with the potential for a bit of training will have to be monitored for localized flooding concerns but it would take over 2 inches in an hour to cause issues. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... With the front meandering thru at least the S zones Tuesday...have kept some higher pops for the afternoon and evening hours. The front finally gets a nudge to the S by Wednesday with mid level drying spreading into the area keeping afternoon shra/tsra chances confined over S WV/SW VA in the better moisture. This front dissolves on Thursday as the next s/w trof and surface low approach with another uptick in shra/tsra coverage during the afternoon and lingering into Friday across the mountains. Temps will gradually ease back closer to normal levels midweek...likely ending the heat wave over portions of the area Tuesday. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Convective activity on the wane at this hour...but will keep with the earlier forecast that has low end POPS during the overnight hours despite largely clearing conditions. Dewpoints are running higher...into the low 70s in some cases...which makes fog development a bit tougher. But will ride the LAMP guidance and will go with valley fog across the area tonight where skies clear out...although it may be after 09Z in some cases. VFR expected after 13Z Saturday...although isolated showers and storms are in the forecast. Not enough expected for prevailing conditions however. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing in question tonight. Clearing timing and extent also in question. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... IFR possible in thunderstorms late Monday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Heat Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>029. OH...Heat Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ066-067- 075-076-083>087. KY...Heat Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for KYZ101>103- 105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/30 NEAR TERM...JSH/26 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...26

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