Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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354 FXUS61 KRLX 280555 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 155 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... FRONT STALLED NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA LIFTS BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT...THEN WAFFLES BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH FRIDAY...PROVIDING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... UPDATE... TWEAKED POP GRIDS A BIT...KEEPING HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. KEEPING AN EYE ON TRENDS/PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS EVENING. OFFICE RECEIVED ABOUT 0.25 INCHES IN A 15-20 MINUTE PERIOD THIS EVENING. A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT COUNTIES TO OUR NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHERE HEAVIER RAINS FELL YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND ISSUE ANY WATER HEADLINES AS DEEM NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... AS OF 18Z...STALLED SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT NEAR HTS-CRW TO N OF BKW. DIFFICULT POP AND QPF FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE...AT 18Z...TO GO WITH ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO ALIGN WITH THE FLOW LIKE YESTERDAY...BUT STILL HAVE LOCALIZED PROBLEMS. SO IF THESE DOWNPOURS HIT THE WETTER AREAS FROM LAST NIGHT...COULD SEE FLOODING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE FFA FOR TONIGHT. WILL INSERT SOME HEAVY RAIN FOR OVERNIGHT...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO AROUND 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...BEFORE TRENDING DOWN AGAIN LATE THURSDAY. THINKING SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT AND SOUTH. THEN THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES 00Z TO 06Z WITH STEERING FLOW AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING AHEAD OF IT. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT SLOW...COMPARED TO THE 18Z RADAR...LIFTING THE DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST. SO MORE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES. WILL BASE FORECAST ON THE FRONT LIFTING TOWARD THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR BY 12Z THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL INCREASE MAX TEMPERATURE A BIT IN THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT AS YOU VENTURE FURTHER NORTH. HAVE POPS DECREASING IN THE MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL SUPPORT PULLS NORTH. MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO TODAY...OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES DESPITE THE LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER. SO DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD REFIRE...WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ALL MODELS SHOW A FINAL WAVE SLIDING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING IN THE REGION MOST OF THE WEEK. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THIS. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION OF THE NAM EVEN SHOWS A DECENT VORT MAX CROSSING DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LINGERING THE LONGEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF WV. SO...MUCH OF FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY...BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SPED UP POPS WITH THIS FEATURE PRETTY GOOD...AND MAY EVEN STILL BE A LITTLE SLOW BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO GO A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS ALREADY ON THE INCREASE BY THE PREDAWN HOURS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO START THE PERIOD AS YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES IN. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER COPIOUS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE NEAR STANDARD ATMOSPHERE MSLP...BUT DECENT MOISTURE INFLOW ON 40 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE COULD LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. MODELS CONCUR ON THE WEATHER SETTLING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES...SENDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WAS A BIT LEERY IN TRENDING DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND THE 12Z ECMWF SURE ENOUGH THROWS A MONKEY WRENCH BACK INTO THE FORECAST...WITH YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON TUESDAY...AND THE NORTHERN STREAM NOT BECOMING A FACTOR UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BLENDS...A LITTLE LOWER ESPECIALLY ON LOWS EARLY TO MID WEEK...OTHERWISE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIATION ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND WAVES ALONG IT COULD LEAD TO LARGE BUST POTENTIAL. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... DECAYING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW PUSHING INTO THE NORTHEAST KENTUCKY REGION TOWARDS HTS...AND A LEADING BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY INTO THE COAL FIELDS TOWARDS CRW. CRW...THINKING IS THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY VISIBLE ON RADAR IMAGERY AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BRING THE VISIBILITIES FROM IFR TO MVFR WITH A MODEST 5 TO 10 KT WIND...LIKELY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. ONLY USING VCTS GIVEN THE OVERALL DECAYING NATURE OF THE CONVECTION TONIGHT. OVERALL...THE CONVECTIVE TREND CONTINUES TODAY...BUT THE BETTER FORCING PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING...TAKING THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION...AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 04/28/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L M M L L M M M H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M H EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L L L M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L L M M M M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ NEAR TERM...KTB/SL SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...26

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