Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 190545 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1245 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Warm front lifts through this morning with rain. Cold front midweek brings showers and storms. Front stalls through the end of the week, with significant rainfall possible.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1245 AM Monday... A warm front is making its way through the coal fields, and will continue lifting northward through this morning. Adjusted POPs a bit slower than previous forecast and high res models with radar just showing echos making it to the Tug Valley now. However do have some concern that things will accelerate northward, so plan to go through POPs again in a couple hours when radar gives a bit more to latch onto. For now, have likely rain lifting northward, with the exception of keeping chance wording across the western slope downslope area with E to SE low level flow. Temperature wise, have non-diurnal temperatures taking over in the next couple hours with a slow warming trend through sunrise. Did not make any significant changes to high/low for today and tonight with a very mild airmass moving in behind the warm front.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 205 PM Sunday... Warm air advection behind a warm front for Tuesday. This will send our temperatures soaring into the 80s across much of the region. Several record high temperatures could possibly be broken. A cold front will approach the region on Wednesday and shower/thunderstorms will be possible. Best chance looks to be in the Ohio Valley, where any additional rainfall will be problematic, especially of the convective nature. Will have to watch for the how far east the boundary makes it on Wednesday. Still some disagreement among the models on when the heaviest rainfall will enter the region. One thing of note, is the GEFS is indicating highly anomalous PWATs of 3 to 4 standard deviations by Wednesday afternoon in the Ohio Valley. With the available moisture in place, any convection could lead to flash flooding. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 220 PM Sunday... Confidence is starting to grow in the long term for a potential high impactful rainfall event. As mentioned in the short term discussion, a cold front will push into the region Wednesday afternoon or evening. This front will not make it very far and guidance eventually has it stalling out in the vicinity of the Ohio Valley. Deep moist SW flow will pump continuous moisture into the area. Still too early to exactly say where the highest rainfall axis will be, but models are starting to hone in on the Ohio Valley. Potential exists for possibly as much as 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, which would cause major flooding issues across the area. Although the Ohio River is forecast to come out of flood stage over the next couple days, it is possible we will be looking at a similar or worse situation by this time next weekend if this pattern holds true. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 1245 AM Monday... A warm front is currently lifting through the coal fields and will continue northward through early this morning. Expect MVFR ceilings to develop at most TAF sites -- with exception of CRW and CKB where downslope effect should keep clouds a bit higher. Will also see some light rain moving northward through the forecast area, only included restrictions in this at BKW. Winds will gradually pick up and become S to SW for today. Did include some low level wind shear this morning at the lowland sites. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions with the warm front could be lower than forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 02/19/18 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H L H L M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L H H H M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H L AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR possible in showers late Wednesday or Wednesday night into Thursday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/MPK NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...MPK/AB LONG TERM...MPK/AB AVIATION...MZ

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