Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 181743 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 143 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Upper ridge dominates the work week, increasing heat and humidity. Mainly scattered afternoon mountain storms. Storms increase with northwest flow Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 140 PM Tuesday... No significant changes necessary to the previous forecast. Upper ridge across central U.S., gradually building east into the region, with an upper trough/low just to our east. Showers and thunderstorms have started to develop along higher terrain and east of mountains, as southeasterly upslope flow/differential heating take hold. There has also been isolated showers developing across parts of southeast Ohio in vicinity of a stalled boundary. As with Monday, convection should dissipate after sunset, for another warm, muggy night, with river valley fog. Any fog will burn off early tomorrow morning, with increasingly warm conditions as upper ridging starts to nudge east into the region. Temperatures on Wednesday should max out a couple of degrees higher than today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 AM Tuesday... Getting decent run to run consistency in the operational models as the flow aloft gradually turns northwesterly in response to the building ridge over the lower to middle Mississippi Valley. As it does so, convection will be relegated north and west of the CWA. Position of the associated warm front will be crucial in the track of developing complexes as they encroach the northern zones late in the short term. Remaining hot and humid with dewpoints back over the 70F mark in lowland areas. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 215 AM Tuesday... The operational long term suffer from diverging solutions, but a common theme on the front end is the increase in convective activity. GFS will hold onto a more zonal pattern aloft while the old 12Z run of the Euro develops an open wave aloft and subsequent frontal system that will provide a distinct change in airmass for the end of the long term. Lower confidence in the POPs beyond Sunday as the blends keep the chances up but bring in cooler air for the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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18Z Tuesday thru 18Z Wednesday... As of 140 PM Tuesday... Light winds and mainly VFR conditions through 05Z. Isold convection possible through 01Z, mainly across southeast Ohio and the mountains, with brief MVFR or IFR conditions possible. Otherwise, after 05Z, patchy river valley fog with IFR conditions possible again, particularly at sites along the Ohio River. Any fog will dissipate 12-13Z for a return to VFR conditions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium for fog tonight. Medium for northern/central WV mountain convection this afternoon. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing and extent will likely vary tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... Patchy IFR river valley fog is possible Thursday and Friday mornings.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...SL

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