Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 150748 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 248 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A southward drifting front stalls just south of our area by Sunday morning, before lifting north as a warm front Monday. Cold front Tuesday night. Another possible system to end week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 10 PM Saturday... Current trends have led to more quickly pulling the rain out of the area tonight, in addition to cutting back on drizzle. As of 100 PM Saturday... The next area of rain currently moving into the area. Thankfully most places have warmed above freezing...thus the freezing rain advisory has been cancelled. This final impulse will move out tonight with the old frontal boundary riding its coat tails out of here. In its wake drier and colder air will be trying its hardest to advect south into the area late tonight. This should allow the low stratus to scatter out across portions of southeast OH and northern WV which could result in dense fog or freezing fog forming along with some black ice as surface temps fall into the 20s. Will pass along concern to evening shift for perhaps an SPS to address this. Elsewhere...a period of drizzle will be realized after the system departs with low stratus and fog hanging tough into the morning hours. This will gradually break up as the day progresses on Sunday with some sunshine being realized across the north. This will be temporary as mid and high clouds build in from the west ahead of the next isentropic lift system. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 240 AM Sunday... Lingered some slight chance to low chance POPs Monday morning, but trend should be drying out through the day. As a surface low lifts through the Missouri and Mississippi River valleys Monday night into Tuesday, a warm front should lift through with showers. This will be followed by a cold front Tuesday night. Did include thunder mention across the SE Tuesday evening as the front crosses, losing any thunder potential as it moves east Tuesday night. Have generally 0.5-0.75" of rain Tuesday in the showers ahead of the cold front.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 240 AM Sunday... Unfortunately models have not resolved differences through the long term. Both ECMWF and GFS show similar features, but they are offset in both time and location lending very little confidence to forecast. Stuck fairly close to a consensus blend with some WPC guidance mixed in. Temperatures Wednesday should be near average following the cold front, but generally temperatures will run above normal through the long term period.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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03Z Sunday thru 00Z Monday... As of 115 AM Sunday... Widespread IFR to LIFR conditions. Do not see any reason to improve conditions until midday Sunday. 1/2 SM Fog may be more prevalent than what is mentioned in TAFs as there are some reports out there of dense fog. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing improving conditions thru the period may vary. Dense fog may additionally form later tonight in the north if clouds break earlier than forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 01/15/17 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L H M L L L BKW CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L M L L L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L M L L M L M L PKB CONSISTENCY M L L M M M H H M L L L CKB CONSISTENCY M M L L L M M M M M M M AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR possible Sunday night into Monday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/30 NEAR TERM...JMV/30 SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...JW

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