Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 171859 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 147 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A strong cold front crosses Saturday night. Many may see first flakes of season Sunday. High pressure much of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 145 PM Friday... Models show pressure gradient tightening overnight and Saturday. With winds expected to stay up most of the night, will go above MOS guidance for lows. Some showers should move into southeast Ohio late tonight, progressing eastward on Saturday. Strong low level winds look threatening with showers, but meso models show a low level inversion that could help protect and keep the stronger winds from mixing to the surface before the front. Am concerned with winds mixing to the ground with the front itself however. Will need to monitor this situation closely.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 AM Friday... Strong cold front crosses the area right at the start of the forecast period, Saturday night 02z-08Z. with strong surface low pressure tracking just north of the forecast area. This places the area in strong forcing associated with the upper level short wave trough. Model soundings depict peak potential of 40 kts beneath an inversion mixing down Saturday afternoon, then up to 45 knots as inversion breaks just ahead of the cold front Saturday night, mainly in gusty showers and thunderstorms. Have coded up gusts nearly this high across the higher ridges, and 10 to 15 kts lower across the lowlands. Will highlight high terrain gusts in the HWO and state briefing. Rainfall may be briefly heavy, but manageable in total, with pw values peaking between one and 1.25 in in this fast moving system. Colder air quickly moves in behind the system late Saturday night and Sunday, with a transition directly from rain to snow, as it gets sufficiently cold aloft before the surface. Orographic effects and snow ratios suggest 1 to 2 inches across the higher windward terrain late Saturday night through Sunday. Many across lower terrain could see first flakes of the season. Low clouds will again follow this system Sunday into Sunday night, before high pressure brings clearing late Sunday night. That high brings mainly clear weather Monday and Monday night, save perhaps for morning cu Monday morning. Central guidance temperatures generally accepted, save for lower highs Sunday beneath the low cloud canopy. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 325 AM Friday... High pressure exits Tuesday, only for another to build in Wednesday, and then prevail through the balance of the work week, beneath upper level northwest flow. A short wave trough in that flow may push a weak cold front through between highs Tuesday night. Pulled central guidance temperatures down slightly, toward previous forecast, in late November stable air and clear nights. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 1225 PM Friday... VFR conditions can be expected this afternoon and evening. Showers in advance of a cold front will push into portions of the area late tonight and Saturday morning. Some brief restrictions are possible in these showers, but otherwise VFR conditions can be expected. There is some concern for LLWS late tonight in the eastern counties as a low level jet develops. This will depend on the height of the inversion, as it could be too high for LLWS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and associated restrictions late tonight and Saturday morning could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL NEAR TERM...TE/RPY SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...RPY

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