Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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850 FXUS61 KRLX 111854 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 154 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN LATER TODAY. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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145 PM UPDATE. EXPIRED THE LAST OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 1015 AM. UPDATED TO EXPIRE WIND CHILL FOR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. KEPT SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT WILL LIKELY CANCEL REMAINING ADVISORY THERE ON AFTERNOON PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...A BIT MORE SUNSHINE MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. 615 AM UPDATE... SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICHOLAS...WEBSTER...UPSHUR AND BARBOUR COUNTIES AT 600 AM. THE REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... 545 AM UPDATE... SNOW SHOWERS STILL LINGER...BUT COVERAGE IS STEADILY DECREASING. KEEPING THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...AND STILL A BIT HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... STILL GETTING A FEW ISOLATED BANDS OF SNOW TRACKING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE VALLEY...AND ALSO PERSISTING IN THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE EXTENDED THE CWA WIDE LOW POPS BECAUSE OF THIS THROUGH THE DAWN HOURS TODAY...SLOWLY RETREATING EASTWARD. EXPECTING A SLOW DISSOLVING OF THE GRADUALLY LIFTING STRATOCUMULUS...LAST TO VACATE THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...JUST IN TIME FOR THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TEMPERS THE OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AFTER A CHILLY DAY TODAY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. SOME FRONTOGENESIS ARRIVES OVER THE TUG VALLEY AFTER 09Z FRIDAY...SO HAVE STARTED THE POPS AGAIN AROUND THAT TIME. MAY TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO RESATURATE THE LOWEST LEVELS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIRMASS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE GOOD CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW DEPENDING ON SHOWER PLACEMENT AND TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE FAVORED AREAS DUE TO THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGS HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS SATURDAY AND THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS...SOME PLACES SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. SUB-ZERO DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FROM RALEIGH COUNTY...NORTH TO RANDOLPH...POCAHONTAS...UPSHUR...BARBOUR AND TAYLOR COUNTIES WITH WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FROM MINUS 15 TO MINUS 30 DEGREES. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS THE DRY AND COLD AIRMASS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THIS WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB AIR -23C...WILL RESULT IN RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY WITH SNOWFALL ON THE GROUND...AND ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT LOW TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS THEMSELVES APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS INDICATING A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE...AND A GULF LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST...AND STAYING WELL EAST OF THE AREA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A NOR`EASTER. ECMWF HOWEVER INDICATES A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION...WITH LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF REGION INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A WINTRY MIX SCENARIO TO START EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...DID A GENERAL BROAD BRUSH OF POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH PERIODS OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY... GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS...BECOMING VFR CEILINGS 19-22Z...THEN SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AOA 7000 FEET AGL AFTER 00Z. ELSEWHERE...SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AOA 4000 FEET AGL...EXCEPT VFR FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST OHIO. WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 04Z...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY ARRIVING IN MAINLY SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY 12Z FRIDAY. AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...RAPIDLY BECOMING MVFR IN GENERAL LIGHT SNOW AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE RACES EASTWARD...WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 18Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY END QUICKER THAN FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26 NEAR TERM...ARJ/JMV/26 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JMV

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