Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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786 FXUS61 KRLX 201729 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 129 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure in control with dry and stable air. Getter hotter. Weak disturbances could drop southeast around ridge Friday night and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... as of 17z...daytime heating forming cu over the central and southern counties. Further north...air drier...so cu will struggle to form. Temperatures continue to rise faster than mos guidance and more along our trace with a hotter maximum temperature around 21z. Winds remain light with strong surface heating. With the lower dew points...have minimum temperatures lower at dawn Thursday than dawn Wednesday. Lowered minimum from our previous forecast for northern counties and central mountains with the lowest late afternoon dew points. Still have river valley fog forming first in southern coal fields of WV and cooler mountain valleys. Overall...a bit later in forming and less coverage than 06z to 12z Wednesday. Will try to stay on high side of maximum temperature guidance for Thursday as top soil gets drier. Winds remain light. Dew points remain aob normal levels during the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper ridge continues to strengthen and build eastward at the start of the period...with an increase in heat and humidity as we progress into the weekend. Dew points will gradually climb into the 70s by Friday into the weekend...and this combined with temperatures in the 90s...will create heat indices over 100 across much of the lowlands Friday into the weekend. Will continue to highlight this in the HWO...as it is looking more and more likely heat advisories will be needed. Most of the period should remain relatively dry...however...there exists the possibility of disturbances aloft moving southeast into the region at times...triggering showers and thunderstorms...with heavy downpours expected with any storms. Still a little too far out to determine exact timing and path of any disturbances...but...maintained a general chance to slight chance in the forecast at times during the period && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The heat will continue thru much of the extended with this weekend serving as the apex as the upper level ridge axis plagues the central parts of the country...keeping the extreme heat at bay thankfully. Still...highs in the low to mid 90s with dewpoints in the lower 70s will create heat index values likely eclipsing the 100 degree mark Saturday and Sunday. Will keep the mention of potential heat advisories in the current HWO. A caveat in realizing such thresholds will depend on areal coverage of any convection. A moisture axis from the upper level wave that comes thru Friday night may linger on Saturday as the ridge axis makes subtle changes. This may provide the lift for aftn convection once any mid level cap is broken. We have included some chance pops in for Saturday afternoon...centered over SE OH. Our far NE zones may stay capped to keep the day dry. Another upper level wave will help to flatten the ridge some on Sunday and especially early next week with increased threat for shra/tsra. && .AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure and light winds with vfr prevailing...except for local ifr in fog 07z to 12z Thursday. Fog should be later in forming and less coverage than dawn Wednesday. Scattered cumulus this afternoon...briefly broken over central and southern mountain counties this afternoon...mainly at 3 to 5 thsd ft agl. Air drier Pkb to Ckb vcnty on north with less cu expected. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: With cooler temperatures...fog could be briefly thicker than forecast at Crw for an hour or 2 near dawn. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/30 NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...KTB

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