Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 262347 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 747 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WARMING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 745 PM UPDATE... FCST ON TRACK. PREV DISCN... FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SEND CLOUDS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT AWAY TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS CLOUDS THAN LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE STRATUS IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH. WITH FEWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH...ANTICIPATE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH MODELS TRYING TO SHOW SOME PRECIP ON MAINLY THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. WITH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...WENT WITH DRY POPS. SHOULD UPSLOPE FLOW BE STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG EASTERN SLOPES. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD. WHILE MOISTURE AND HEAT SLOWLY INCREASE AS WEAK WIND FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY...MOST CONVECTION SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED BY DOMINANT RIDGING. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WILL MODESTLY INCREASE... WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR THE LOW LANDS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM... ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... STRATOCU DECK WILL TEND TO BREAK UP THIS PERIOD. HOW MUCH FOG FORMS OVERNIGHT WILL DEPEND UPON HOW QUICKLY THIS DECK...A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE ATOP THE MIXING LAYER...BREAKS UP. THE MOST BREAK UP AND THUS IFR FOG IS MORE LIKELY THE FARTHER S ONE IS. AFTER A VFR DAY THE BALANCE OF THU...FOG NAY START TO REFORM BY 06Z FRI...WITH LESS STRATOCU EXPECTED THU NT. SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY N BY DAY AND CALM BY NT. LIGHT N FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT NE THU AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HOLES IN THE STRATUS DECK TONIGHT COULD ALLOW FOR DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG. SHOULD CLOUDS HANG TOUGH ACROSS SOUTH...FOG WOULD BE LESS LIKELY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...TRM

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