Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 271738 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 138 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS FOLLOWING LATEST RADAR IMAGES. ALSO TWEAKED SKY GRIDS PER SATELLITE IMAGES. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS RIDING UP E SIDE OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER THE MIDWEST...LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...TAKING BAND OF SHOWERS WITH IT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAVE BEHIND SOME MORNING MIST AND STRATOCU THAT WILL THEN BURN OFF AND MIX OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING. MODELS DRY THE COLUMN OUT CONSIDERABLY...ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. NAM CRANKS THE CAPE TO 1500-2000 J/KG IN RESPONSE BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS THE MIDWEST S/W TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO RATHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS W OF THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR SE OHIO...WHERE THE FLOW IS STRONGEST. FARTHER E...LIGHTER FLOW AND LITTLE OR NO TRIGGER SPELLS LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATE TODAY SHIFTS SLOWLY E/NEWD T AND WANES TONIGHT AS THE FORCING S/W TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. LIKED HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE FOR A TIME TODAY AND ALSO STAYED ON HIGH SIDE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE HOT...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ANY RIPPLE IN THE FLOW WILL ONLY HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE LOW...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CONTINUE. HEIGHTS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BUILD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS BY FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MORNING LOW STRATUS HAS TRANSFORMED INTO DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING POCKETS OF SUNSHINE. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO TAKE PLACE TO FORM ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED COULD BE HTS AND PKB. THEREFORE...INCLUDED VCTS IN THE BEGINNING OF THEIR TAFS. IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT UNDER A BRIEF MVFR/IFR SHOWER OF STORM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF FORCING. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE UNDER WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS. THEREFORE...INCLUDED VCTS AS WELL AT MOST PLACES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS ONLY THE GFS BRINGS QPF OVERNIGHT...WHEN COMPARED WITH THE SUITE OF SYNOPTIC AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LOWER CEILINGS THAN FORECAST MAY ALSO FORM 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION IN THE MUGGY LATE NIGHT AIR. .AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...ARJ

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