Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 182050 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 350 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front crosses tonight. Much colder Sunday. High pressure early next week. Cold front Tuesday night. High pressure again late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 255 PM Saturday... A strong cold front will push through the region overnight. Models still showing a strong low level jet near the cold front, so still concerned with wind gusts along the front. Will need to monitor this situation very closely, as a wind advisory may still be needed. Behind the cold front late tonight, models showing good lift for a brief period. Looks like the higher elevations of the mountains could get a quick inch or two of snow. Should see a lull in snow during the morning hours, but as an impulse goes through in the late afternoon hours, models showing good moisture depth, cold air advection, and good upslope over northeastern WV. Will increase pops accordingly. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 330 PM Saturday... The aforementioned weak impulse will be moving into the mountains to start the period and enhances upslope snow through roughly 06Z Monday. Deep moisture up through around 700 MB and favorable dendritic growth indicate a burst of snow with additional accumulations across higher terrain on the order of 1-2 inches, of course favoring areas above roughly 2500 ft. Beyond 06Z Monday, low level moisture is largely lost or continues to wane as the upper level trough moves off-shore. High pressure will build in from the southwest clearing us out for the day Monday. High pressure shifts toward the east and puts us under southwesterly, WAA flow bumping temperatures up considerably on Tuesday.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 400 PM Saturday... Upper level ridging will yield to height falls with a potential cut-off low across the southern states. This would place the Mid-Ohio Valley/Central Appalachia between a weak, moisture- starved northern stream wave across the upper Great Lakes region and a deeply amplified trough extending down through the eastern CONUS. Warm, moist advection up through the Piedmont and the potential for coastal cyclogenesis suggests the potential for upslope rainshowers along the Eastern slopes. It would be aided by the northern stream cold front. In spite of model disagreement during the middle of the week, there is consistent signal for another potent system and cold front coming through during the weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 1230 PM Saturday... Some showers over northern WV will move northward this afternoon. Some brief MVFR restrictions are possible before these move off to the north. While some other showers can not be ruled out this afternoon, most areas will remain dry with VFR conditions. Southerly winds will be rather gusty, with wind gusts of 30 to 45 mph possible. A cold front will produce showers as it moves through overnight. Brief IFR conditions are possible with these showers. Expect strong gusty winds with the cold front, with gusts of 35 to 45 mph. Behind the front, expect MVFR conditions with some IFR conditions in the higher elevations of the mountains. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and associated restrictions could vary. Timing of the cold front could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L M H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L H M AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Wind Advisory until noon EST Sunday for WVZ520-522>524-526. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 3 AM EST Monday for WVZ522-523-526. OH...None. KY...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/MC NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...TRM/MC LONG TERM...TRM/MC AVIATION...RPY

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