Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 130556 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 156 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS SOUTH. SURFACE TROUGH/REINFORCING FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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130 AM UPDATE... SCATTERED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS EXPECTED. MEANWHILE...WATCHING A THIN LINE OF PRECIP STILL WELL WEST OF THE AREA WHICH IS PROGGED TO RAPIDLY RACE E/NE-WARD TOWARDS THE AREA. OVERALL POPS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK GENERALLY SPEAKING. 1000 PM UPDATE... DELAYED ONSET OF DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT VIA SREF AND NEAR TERM ENSEMBLE OUTPUT. NEAR TERM MODELS AND NAM STILL INSIST ON PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT 06-08Z IN THE WEAK NOCTURNAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE SETTING UP ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. TRIMMED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AS WELL ON ACCOUNT OF THINNER CLOUD COVER. LOST STRATOCU JUST W OF MOUNTAINS IN WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW NEAR SUNSET BUT IT WAS BEGINNING TO ENCROACH BACK IN FROM THE W AS 03Z APPROACHED. 800 PM UPDATE... SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TRYING TO DEVELOP OUT OF ALTOCU DECK IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHILE FLOW VEERING TO SE IS SUPPORTING UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION STARTING TO BREAK OUT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WV MOUNTAINS. SFC WAVE FORMS OVER THE FCST AREA IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT...AND THEN THEY BOTH MOVE OUT IN TANDEM ON SAT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE NEWD AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE MOVING E ON SAT AS A RESULT. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BUT THE OVERALL THESIS REMAINS THE SAME. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ON OR CLOSE. PREV DISCN... GENERALLY A CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME CLEARING ON THE EASTERN SLOPES. ALSO BEGINNING TO SEE SOME SIGNS OF THE LOW STRATUS THINNING IN PLACES SO ANTICIPATE GOING MORE BROKEN ON THE LOW STRATUS...BUT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE MID WEST. EXPECT THIS TROUGH...WHICH IS ALMOST LIKE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT...TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE ANY DYNAMIC LIFT IS ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT. LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY SO LEFT THUNDER OUT. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...DID NOT DROP TEMPS OFF MUCH TONIGHT FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW. BLENDED IN THE BIAS- CORRECTED SREF FOR LOWS GOING FOR UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY TOMORROW...HOLDING TEMPS DOWN. USED A MAV/MET BLEND RESULTING IN A BIT COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT A TOUCH WARMER THAN TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA BASED ON THE THINKING THAT WE MAY SEE MORE PEEKS OF SUNSHINE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THAN TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM FORECAST DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...SUPPLYING FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WHERE AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER...KEEPING THE CLOUDS UP IN THIS AREA. ADD SOME POPS TO THIS AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME...BUT THIS CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER SIDE. NOT JUSTIFIED IN IGNORING THE OMEGA SIGNAL IN THE NAM HOWEVER. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. PATTERN REMAINS COOLER IN NATURE WITH EARLY FALL TYPE WEATHER PREVAILING. IN THE END...USED WPC HEAVILY AS GUIDANCE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST...AND HAVE A 7 DAY FORECAST IN TOTAL WITH NO THUNDER IN THE FORECAST GRIDS IN ANY DAY. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA...MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE I79 CORRIDOR. EXPECT GENERAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE DAWN HOURS AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH MORE PRECIP COVERAGE MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. MVFR VSBY IN RAIN IS MOST LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY BTWN ROUGHLY 12Z-18Z. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...WITH MOST LOCATIONS BEING DRY BY AROUND 18Z-19Z. NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED. OUTSIDE OF PRECIP CHANCES...CURRENT SCATTERED MVFR/IFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY FILL IN BY EARLY MORNING. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH VFR NEAR AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER BY AROUND 18Z-19Z...AND THE CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS BY AROUND THE 20Z-22Z TIME FRAME. AS USUAL...LOW STRATUS WILL HANG ON LONGER IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BUT EVEN HERE SHOULD SEE QUICK IMPROVEMENT AROUND 00Z SUN. LIGHT NE SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT SE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LIGHT NW IN THE LOWLANDS OVERNIGHT...AS THE SFC WAVE DEVELOPS...AND THEN NW THROUGHOUT SAT AS THE WAVE MOVES E. LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT NW ON SAT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: PRESENCE OF LOW STRATUS IS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AT NT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 09/13/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H L L M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M H L H H H L M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H M M M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/26 NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ/50 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...50

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