Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 231848 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 241 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSHOWERS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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QUITE TRANQUIL AS UPPER RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. THIS WILL BRING LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER CONDITIONS EACH DAY...INCLUDING MILDER NIGHTS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASE WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 5H RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SFC HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A BERMUDA HIGH FORECAST SCENARIO. THIS LEAVES FORECAST AREA UNDER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN LEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK. EFFECTS OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL MAINLY BE FELT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE. ACTIVITY MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURE WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN THE NORMAL RANGE THIS PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION IN DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY AS MORE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... DIRTY RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR IN DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. KEPT CHC OR BETTER POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES WILL BE RIDING NORTH IN SW FLOW THIS PERIOD. DIURNAL TRENDS BECOME LESS OF A FACTOR AS IMPULSES COULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS CARRIED SOME POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS AS WELL. MAINLY USED WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 18Z SATURDAY THRU 18Z SUNDAY... DECREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY VFR MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXCEPTION...PATCHY MVFR/IFR RIVER/VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 09Z-12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY AT EKN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THRU PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE .AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED. && WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...JMV

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