Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 280828 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 425 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRIER TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH. HOT AND MORE HUMID SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE ALOFT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... COLD FRONT ALMOST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA...AND ANTICIPATE IT TO CLEAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. STILL...ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE TO KEEP SOME TOKEN POPS ACROSS MAINLY VA COUNTIES INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT FOG AND LOW STRATUS THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND MUCH OF THE WV LOWLANDS INITIALLY THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD SCATTER OUT AND LIFT INTO CU THROUGH THE MORNING. MET CONTINUES TO PERFORM WELL ON HIGH TEMPS IN THIS PATTERN...SO LEANED THAT WAY...COOLING HIGHS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR LOWS...COOLING THE NORTH A TOUCH AND WARMING THE SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE CONVECTION ON OUR GRAVEYARD SHIFT THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA HAD SOME DUMPERS. MAXIMUM MEASURED/OBSERVED AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IN AN HOUR. LUCKILY THE DURATION OF THAT CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS WAS ABOUT AN HOUR...KEEPING MAXIMUM RAIN TOTALS UNDER 2 INCHES. TIME WAS DEVOTED TO RADAR AND HYDROLOGY...AND THUS LESS TIME THAN USUAL ALLOTTED FOR UPDATING THIS SHORT TERM. A WEAK SE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ON FRIDAY...SO CONTINUED THE 20/30 POPS MOSTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...BUT ALSO TAILING WEST TO CATCH NORTHEAST KENTUCKY BY LATE IN THE DAY OR FRIDAY EVENING. THE AXIS OF THE 500 MB RIDGE SHOULD BE PASSING ON FRIDAY. THE OLD LOW LEVEL DEW POINT GRADIENT SHOULD BE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY THEN...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE 925 MB FLOW DOES INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT OUR OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. SOME LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THAT INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...COULD KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP LIFTING NORTH FOR A SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LAST REMNANTS OF THE DRIER MEAN RH THAT PENETRATED ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...TRIES TO LIFT BACK THRU US ON SATURDAY...BUT HAD TO LEAVE SOME 20 AND 30 POPS FOR MANY COUNTIES. 00Z NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE NARROW CAPE WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL 35 TO 40K IN THE MORE HUMID AIR. WAS A BIT FASTER INCREASING POPS IN THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDES NORTHEAST IN THE INCREASING SW MID LEVEL FLOW. DID DECREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A BIT ON SUNDAY DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PCPN. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THIS FEATURE POSSIBLY PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE OF GETTING WET STILL APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY...WHEN A DECENT SHORTWAVE PASSES BY. WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VERY DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING. CURRENT AREA OF TSHOWERS DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE COAL FIELDS AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT ANY TAF SITES. AREAS THAT HAVE GOTTEN RAIN ARE STARTING TO SEE FOG DEVELOP...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATED LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS WILL LIKELY PLAY HAVOC WITH FOG. BREAKING IT DOWN...THINK PKB SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE STRATUS AND HAVE DENSE FOG DEVELOPING. AT HTS...HAVE DENSE FOG RIGHT NOW...BUT THINK AS STRATUS MOVES IN...FOG MAY THIN A BIT. AT CKB...ANTICIPATE STRATUS DEVELOPING SOON...BUT POSSIBLY SCATTERING OUT IN TIME FOR FOG TO START DEVELOPING BEFORE SUNRISE. AT CRW...EKN AND BKW...HIT STRATUS PRETTY HARD...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG AS WELL DUE TO RECENT RAIN. AREAS WITH FOG SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE IN THE MORNING...WHERE AS STRATUS COULD HANG ON THROUGH MID MORNING. BY AFTERNOON EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW THIS MORNING THEN HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY VARY TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 08/28/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M L M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H M M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H L L L L H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M H M M H H H H AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... LOCAL IFR IN VALLEY FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...MZ

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