Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KRLX 130640
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
140 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2017
A cold front pushes southeastward through the area early tonight.
It then meanders back and forth across the area through the
weekend, and into next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 805 PM Thursday...
Current forecast right on track with timing of front and band of
rain showers. Little change needed.
As of 100 PM Thursday...
Gusty winds 30 to 35 kts will continue through the remainder of
this very warm afternoon. A strong cold front will enter
southeast OH by 21z...crossing the OH River around 00Z...and
exit the mountains after 06Z. This is a well defined baroclinic
zone with quite the temperature and theta e gradient noted.
A decent low level jet continues to exist over the region, and
with such a strong frontal boundary...think some thunder will be
realized along with the potential for gusts to 50 mph despite
the lack of meaningful instability. The low level jet will be
weakening this evening such that any convective line should lose
steam once to the OH River. Temperatures will be noticeably
colder as the front crosses...with 30s showing up by morning
across northern WV and southeast OH.
The mid level flow will turn westerly late tonight into tomorrow
while a northerly flow near the surface will tend to lock in low
stratus amidst a developing subsidence inversion. As
such...think cloud cover will be in abundance tomorrow and will
be stubborn to lift and scatter across the WV lowlands/NE KY.
Highs tomorrow will be significantly cooler than today...though
still managing near normal for this time of year. Isentropic
lift will be increasing in the afternoon with light rain
breaking out across southwest VA and southern WV late.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...
The area will be caught in a baroclinic zone between a
tenacious upper level high over the Gulf of Mexico, and a
northern stream trough over the northeast U.S. this period.
Friday morning finds a cold front having just pushed through
the forecast area and residing just off the southeast edges of
it. The forecast cuts off anafront precipitation quicker behind
it compared with previous forecast, and this eliminates the
chance for freezing rain in the middle Ohio Valley Friday
morning. This reference has been removed from the HWO.
The front and its associated precipitation push farther south
Friday morning, before pushing back north late Friday and Friday
night, on an overrunning surge. This could introduce freezing
rain over the middle Ohio Valley into northern WV, and then back
down mainly the eastern slopes of the northern WV mountains,
overnight Friday night into Saturday morning.
The front pushes back south Saturday night, with one last small
chance for freezing rain over the middle Ohio Valley and down
the east slopes of the northern WV mountains early Sunday
morning. Kept this mention in the HWO.
Upper ridging builds Sunday night, pushing the front, and any
associated precipitation, back north. There is a very small
chance for freezing rain in interior southeast Ohio, but opted
to leave it out of the HWO for now given PoPs only in the 20s.
Temperatures close to guidance with the baroclinic zone
fluctuating almost in synch with the diurnal temperature cycle.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...
This period features mild and, at times, wet weather, with upper
level ridging east of the Appalachians and upper level
troughing just to the west.
Warmer air takes control Monday, with little if any precipitation
Monday into Monday night. A cold front approaches Tuesday with
a chance for showers, mainly for the middle Ohio Valley, before
the front lifts out on account of a wave of low pressure moving
up the middle Mississippi Valley. That wave is likely to bring
the cold front back toward the area with showers on Wednesday
into Wednesday night.
The forecast has the front and upper level short wave trough
exiting Thursday, taking the rain showers with it. However,
uncertainty in the timing of all these systems increases by
Temperatures close to guidance and continuing above normal
through the period.
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --00Z Friday thru 00Z Saturday...
As of 115 AM Friday...
Generally crummy conditions overnight with IFR/MVFR mix. Lowest
conditions in the south near the front. Expect a brief return to
VFR midday today before flight restrictions return with the next
front which may lay down a little freezing rain in the northern
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: More IFR may develop than in TAFs due to
saturated lower levels.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 01/13/17
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L
EKN CONSISTENCY M M L L M M M M H H H L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H M H M
CKB CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H M M M
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible Saturday and Sunday in rain showers and a wintry
mix, especially north.
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