Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 291850 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 140 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A wave of low pressure moves northeastward tonight, pushing a front through on cold Wednesday. Cooler high pressure to end the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 140 PM Tuesday... Models have shifted further west with the main rain band overnight. Therefore have lowered pops in some areas, especially the southeastern counties. A cold front comes through on Wednesday with a fairly good line and some instability. Could see some thunder with this system. Some differences still exist in model timing of the cold front, so although there is a high confidence in showers on Wednesday, confidence is lower in the timing.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 AM Tuesday... Models are in decent agreement with strong cold front pushing through the region on Wednesday. Deep southwesterly return flow gives this system plenty of moisture to work with. Widespread rainfall amounts of an inch or more will be possible with localized higher amounts. Most of the rain looks to fall between 12 to 18Z. Guidance also agrees that the front should be through the region by Wednesday night with much colder air pushing in behind it. Look for high temperature differences of 15 to 20 degrees lower for Thursday along with gusty NW winds. Could see some snow showers develop Thursday afternoon across the mountains with upper trough cresting overhead and the favorable upslope flow. Confidence is still too low at this time on how long the snow showers will persist as they will likely continue well into the long term period. Also, still way too early to talk amounts across the higher terrain, but will touch on this a bit more in the long term discussion below. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 320 AM Tuesday... Northwesterly flow continues Friday morning and into the first part of the weekend could result in some accumulating snowfall across the mountains. Currently the temps aloft aren`t quite as cold and the flow is weaker than you want to see for decent orographic accent, but nonetheless, some light accumulations could occur in the mountains. By the end of the weekend the spread in the ensemble and operational guidance increases. There is an indication of warm air advection starting to take hold before the start of next week. However, guidance is still miles apart on what to do with a system near the Gulf. Due to this uncertainty I decided to go with a blend of the ensemble and operational guidance for this time frame. The blend gives us a chance of precip starting late Sunday through day 7 due to the timing differences between the guidance with this system. Being it falls on days 5 through 7 we still have plenty of time to sort this out and hopefully the guidance will start to come more aligned in the next couple days. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 1225 PM Tuesday... A mix of clouds and sunshine can be expected this afternoon. Some clouds early this afternoon could be MVFR, but will rise to VFR by mid afternoon. VFR conditions will generally continue this evening, although some developing showers could cause some restrictions. An area of precipitation will then develop later tonight, causing areas of MVFR conditions. A cold front will push through on Wednesday with a band of showers and/or thunderstorms causing IFR/MVFR restrictions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High this afternoon and evening, then medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and development of rain and associated restrictions this morning and again tonight may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M L M H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR possible with a cold front Wednesday afternoon. IFR possible in the mountains in upslope clouds through Friday, mainly in the higher elevations.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...RPY

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