Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 201749 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 149 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST...ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BRING WARMER...BUT STILL MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FALL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... MID LEVEL INSTABILITY BRINGING SOME ALTOCUMULUS ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY...SO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD FORECAST. OTHERWISE...LOOKING GOOD THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... UPSLOPE INDUCED LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WV MOUNTAINS WERE BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM THE S AND W...A TREND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS THE FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER THROUGH S. THIS WARM ADVECTION VEERING WAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A STRATOCU DECK FORMING TO THE W OF THE AREA IN THE THETA E AXIS. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY CONVERT AS SPOTTY SHOWERS W OF HTS LATER THIS MORNING. MODELS SUGGESTS SPOTTY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THIS AFTERNOON RIDING UP THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE H85-H7 TO PERHAPS STAND UP A SHOWER...ALTHOUGH NEAR TERM MODELS DO NOT OUTPUT ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE WILL HAVE A SCT-BKN CU / STRATOCU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT. LINE OF CONVECTION WAS NEARLY CO-LOCATED WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE CHC SHRA/TSRA ENTERING THE AREA FROM THE NW AROUND 06Z AND REACHING THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z SUN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS IS CLOSE TO MODELS WHICH HAVE COME CLOSER TOGETHER FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. INSTABILITY BECOMES ELEVATED AS THUNDER ROLLS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WERE CLOSER TO STRAIGHT GUIDANCE RATHER THAN THE LOWER BIAS CORRECTED OUTPUT. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED OTHER THAN TO LOWER THE EASTERN SLOPES A BIT...WITH DOWNSLOPE SRLY FLOW W OF THE MOUNTAINS. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS THE MAV LOOKED TOO LOW ALL AROUND EVEN WITH A BIT LESS FLOW COMPARED WITH THIS MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND CENTRAL INDIANA AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD...PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND TO THE EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NAM STILL THE SLOWER OF THE SOLUNS...BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FASTER GFS/ECMWF. CONTINUED TO LEAN FORECAST TOWARDS GFS SOLUN. COULD SEE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. SPC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SEE TEXT OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OR DRIZZLE LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PARTICULARLY THE WV/SOUTHWEST VA ZONES. HELD ONTO CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONES INTO MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...WITH HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES LAST TO CLEAR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY FOR A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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PLAYED THE TAFS CONSERVATIVELY THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST OFF...NOT MEETING THE CRITERIA FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...BUT WILL SEE A STRENGTHENING IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 4KFT...GIVING WAY TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TONIGHT. THESE WILL LOVER AS THE LINES OF SHOWERS WITH STORMS LATER SUNDAY...AND EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO COME INTO PLAY. PAIRED UP THE VISIBILITIES WITH THE POPS...SO HAVE NO RESTRICTIONS IN THAT SENSE UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. THE EASTERN ZONES SHOULD BE CLEAR ENOUGH FOR EARLY FOG DEVELOPMENT BASED ON NAM AND LAMP GUIDANCE TIMING. THEREFORE...HAVE EKN DOWN TO LIFR FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT THIS IS THE ONLY SITE FOR IFR OR WORSE TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY IN QUESTION TONIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE IN. CEILINGS MAY NOT REACH MVFR UNTIL AFTER FORECAST TIMES. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM/26 SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...26

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