Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 130640 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 140 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front pushes southeastward through the area early tonight. It then meanders back and forth across the area through the weekend, and into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 805 PM Thursday... Current forecast right on track with timing of front and band of rain showers. Little change needed. As of 100 PM Thursday... Gusty winds 30 to 35 kts will continue through the remainder of this very warm afternoon. A strong cold front will enter southeast OH by 21z...crossing the OH River around 00Z...and exit the mountains after 06Z. This is a well defined baroclinic zone with quite the temperature and theta e gradient noted. A decent low level jet continues to exist over the region, and with such a strong frontal boundary...think some thunder will be realized along with the potential for gusts to 50 mph despite the lack of meaningful instability. The low level jet will be weakening this evening such that any convective line should lose steam once to the OH River. Temperatures will be noticeably colder as the front crosses...with 30s showing up by morning across northern WV and southeast OH. The mid level flow will turn westerly late tonight into tomorrow while a northerly flow near the surface will tend to lock in low stratus amidst a developing subsidence inversion. As such...think cloud cover will be in abundance tomorrow and will be stubborn to lift and scatter across the WV lowlands/NE KY. Highs tomorrow will be significantly cooler than today...though still managing near normal for this time of year. Isentropic lift will be increasing in the afternoon with light rain breaking out across southwest VA and southern WV late. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday... The area will be caught in a baroclinic zone between a tenacious upper level high over the Gulf of Mexico, and a northern stream trough over the northeast U.S. this period. Friday morning finds a cold front having just pushed through the forecast area and residing just off the southeast edges of it. The forecast cuts off anafront precipitation quicker behind it compared with previous forecast, and this eliminates the chance for freezing rain in the middle Ohio Valley Friday morning. This reference has been removed from the HWO. The front and its associated precipitation push farther south Friday morning, before pushing back north late Friday and Friday night, on an overrunning surge. This could introduce freezing rain over the middle Ohio Valley into northern WV, and then back down mainly the eastern slopes of the northern WV mountains, overnight Friday night into Saturday morning. The front pushes back south Saturday night, with one last small chance for freezing rain over the middle Ohio Valley and down the east slopes of the northern WV mountains early Sunday morning. Kept this mention in the HWO. Upper ridging builds Sunday night, pushing the front, and any associated precipitation, back north. There is a very small chance for freezing rain in interior southeast Ohio, but opted to leave it out of the HWO for now given PoPs only in the 20s. Temperatures close to guidance with the baroclinic zone fluctuating almost in synch with the diurnal temperature cycle. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday... This period features mild and, at times, wet weather, with upper level ridging east of the Appalachians and upper level troughing just to the west. Warmer air takes control Monday, with little if any precipitation Monday into Monday night. A cold front approaches Tuesday with a chance for showers, mainly for the middle Ohio Valley, before the front lifts out on account of a wave of low pressure moving up the middle Mississippi Valley. That wave is likely to bring the cold front back toward the area with showers on Wednesday into Wednesday night. The forecast has the front and upper level short wave trough exiting Thursday, taking the rain showers with it. However, uncertainty in the timing of all these systems increases by then. Temperatures close to guidance and continuing above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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00Z Friday thru 00Z Saturday... As of 115 AM Friday... Generally crummy conditions overnight with IFR/MVFR mix. Lowest conditions in the south near the front. Expect a brief return to VFR midday today before flight restrictions return with the next front which may lay down a little freezing rain in the northern sites. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: More IFR may develop than in TAFs due to saturated lower levels. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 01/13/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L EKN CONSISTENCY M M L L M M M M H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H M H M CKB CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR possible Saturday and Sunday in rain showers and a wintry mix, especially north.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...JMV/30 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...JW

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