Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 272357 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 657 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE INTO SATURDAY. WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... COLDEST 850 MB TEMPS WERE ABOUT MINUS 18C TO MINUS 21C WERE HERE TODAY. LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD BE DRYING UP THIS EVENING. YET...WITH THE 850 THERMAL TROF STILL LINGERING THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...BEFORE THOSE TEMPERATURES CREEP HIGHER....A FEW OF THOSE CLOUD PATCHES MAY STICK INTO THE NIGHT AROUND IN THE WEAK FLOW. WENT A BIT COLDER IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY IN INTERIOR SE OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. HOWEVER...HAVE MID DECK CLOUDS RETURNING BEFORE DAWN IN THE SOUTH TO AFFECT THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE NIGHT. WILL LEAVE POPS AOB 14 PCT SATURDAY...FIGURING ANY PCPN WILL BE ALOFT. AS MID DECK MOVES NE IN THE MORNING...BREAK COULD DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH...AS LIFT WEAKENS 18Z SAT TO 00Z SUN. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE...MAYBE HELD DOWN A BIT IN THE SOUTH BY THOSE CLOUDS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE EXITS NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING H850 TO SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO START BRINGING WARMER AND MOISTER AIR MASS OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS LIFT THE FREEZING LINE NORTH OF THE AREA BY 00Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS DAYS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN A ZONAL FLOW AT H500 CROSSING EAST ON SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS PA. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT SOME INTERACTION WITH A LIFTING WARM FRONT FEATURE FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE ONSET OF PCPN AS SNOW...BUT QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN AS AFOREMENTIONED WARM TEMPERATURES MOVE IN. HAVE LIKELY POP AS NOT TRUSTING A WARM FRONT LIFTING FROM THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS SPREAD ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH...EAST WITH A COLD FRONT CHANGING PCPN TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THE LOWLANDS WILL SEE LIQUID PCPN SUNDAY...TRANSITIONING INTO SNOW OR MIXED PCPN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PCPN MOVES EAST OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE ENDING EARLY MONDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDING SUGGEST 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN SOUTHEAST OH...PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES WITH THE COLD FRONT. CONTINUED WORDING IN HWO FOR POTENTIAL ADVISORIES DUE TO SNOW ON SUNDAY. SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. FIGURED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...AND MID TO LOW 30S SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY REMAINS RELATIVELY WARM BUT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS COVERING THE SKIES. WENT WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS BLENDED WITH BIAS CORRECTED NAM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER IN TERMS OF OVERALL PATTERN...ALTHOUGH TIMING ISSUES REMAIN. BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON A LITTLE LONGER. HOWEVER...THIS WILL CHANGE AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR EVEN SLEET AT THE ONSET TUESDAY...BEFORE ENOUGH WARM AIR IS ABLE TO SURGE NORTH TO SCOUR OUT COLDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES. STILL LOOKING LIKE GOOD TAP OF GULF MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING...WITH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 1.2 TO 1.3 INCHES...OR ABOUT 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS...ALONG WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS...WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT EXPECTED ACROSS WV LOWLANDS AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. THE HEAVY RAIN...COMBINED WITH ANY SNOW MELT THAT IS ABLE TO OCCUR DUE TO WARMING TEMPERATURES...COULD CREATE FLOODING ISSUES. THERE IS A GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF WATER IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. OF COURSE THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOWMELT WILL OCCUR AND HOW RAPID IT WILL BE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS INITIALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND POSSIBLY RIVERS AS TIME PROGRESSES. THE GOOD NEWS IS...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH THE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD HOPEFULLY KEEP THE BULK OF MOISTURE WITH THAT LOW TO OUR SOUTH. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A GENERAL DRYING TREND TAKING HOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOWFALL BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION FLOODING POTENTIAL IN THE HWO FOR THE TIME PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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GENERALLY VFR MOST PLACES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOWER VSBYS NORTH PER MODEL GUIDANCE ...BUT GIVEN DEW POINTS ARE SO LOW IT WOULD BE HARD TO IMAGINE THIS CULMINATING. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JW

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