Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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032 FXUS61 KRLX 231756 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 156 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Strong to severe thunderstorms are still possible today, with a risk for heavy downpours as well. A cold front crosses tonight, and then another crosses Monday night. High pressure midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 150 PM Sunday... Severe threat for much of this afternoon a bit iffy, and SPC has cut back the threat from Slight to Marginal. Cloud cover from earlier convection continues to hang across the area, which will help to limit destabilization somewhat. However, models still indicating an uptick in activity later this evening and tonight, as upper shortwave trough digs south across the region, and surface cold front approaches from the west. Last night, quite a bit of precipitation from convection, with parts of southeast Ohio, northern WV and northeast Kentucky receiving a general 2 to 5 inches. Any additional convection today could create additional water issues on already saturated soils, and will keep flood watch going. Initial frontal boundary moves through late tonight, with precipitation gradually decreasing in coverage late. A secondary front will cross on Monday, with isolated convection, but overall, much drier. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 420 AM Sunday... Monday begins with low cloud given lots of low level moisture in place in the wake of rounds of convection over the weekend. With the morning cu effect, it may take much of the morning for these clouds to mix higher and then mix out. This will then modulate the amount of instability we could realize Monday afternoon, to take advantage of marginal deep layer bulk shear, ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. With drier mid level air limiting high PW values to smaller pockets, coverage of storms should be limited, and so should the excessive rainfall threat. The front will cross Monday night, with dry weather overnight through Tuesday night, and into Wednesday morning, as high pressure crosses. That high exits on Wednesday, allowing a return flow of warmer and more humid air from the south. This may be sufficient for elevated heat source effect convection in the mountains Wednesday afternoon and evening. That diurnal convection will wane Wednesday night. Temperatures only get a scosh below normal in the relatively refreshing canadian air, in which central guidance was below the MEX for lows in the Tygart Valley Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 420 AM Sunday... Models agree on a new cold front approaching from the northwest late Thursday and Thursday night, and then crossing the area Friday. The chance for showers and thunderstorms increases in the warmer and more humid air ahead of the front Thursday afternoon, with the help of diurnal heating. Showers and thunderstorms are likely Thursday night into Friday, as the front approaches. The passage of the front will bring drier weather into the middle Ohio Valley Friday afternoon, and then the central Appalachians Friday night. High pressure will build in behind the front, for a dry, cooler and less humid weekend. Temperatures reflect a return to the very warm weather on Thursday, followed by a cooling trend, largely on account of the clouds and rain associated with the front on Friday, and then below normal in the wake of the front over the weekend. Central guidance is again below the MEX for lows in the Tygart Valley over the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 155 PM Sunday... Bulk of convection has tapered off for the time being, however, storms will refire again, particularly after 21Z, with strong damaging winds, and heavy downpours expected. Expect brief MVFR and IFR conditions in vicinity of storms. Bulk of convection will die off after 06Z, however, widespread mvfr and local ifr cigs are possible. General clearing to VFR after 14Z with light surface winds. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Thunderstorm coverage could be more limited later today/tonight. MVFR and IFR cigs late tonight could be more widespread than currently forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H M H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H L M M M M H M PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H L M M L H M M L CKB CONSISTENCY M L M H M L L L L M M L AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR Fog possible early Tuesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526. OH...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ066-067- 075-076-083>087. KY...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ101>103- 105. VA...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JB/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...SL

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