Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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298 FXUS61 KRLX 150320 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1020 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A southward drifting front stalls just south of our area by Sunday morning, before lifting north as a warm front Monday. A cold front can be expected Tuesday night. Another system is possible toward the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 10 PM Saturday... Current trends have led to more quickly pulling the rain out of the area tonight, in addition to cutting back on drizzle. As of 100 PM Saturday... The next area of rain currently moving into the area. Thankfully most places have warmed above freezing...thus the freezing rain advisory has been cancelled. This final impulse will move out tonight with the old frontal boundary riding its coat tails out of here. In its wake drier and colder air will be trying its hardest to advect south into the area late tonight. This should allow the low stratus to scatter out across portions of southeast OH and northern WV which could result in dense fog or freezing fog forming along with some black ice as surface temps fall into the 20s. Will pass along concern to evening shift for perhaps an SPS to address this. Elsewhere...a period of drizzle will be realized after the system departs with low stratus and fog hanging tough into the morning hours. This will gradually break up as the day progresses on Sunday with some sunshine being realized across the north. This will be temporary as mid and high clouds build in from the west ahead of the next isentropic lift system.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM Saturday... The front that has been waffling around the area will lift northward as a warm front Sunday night and Monday. Some models indicating that freezing rain is a possibility Monday morning. Will have to monitor this situation closely. An approaching weak cold front will then bring chances of showers Tuesday, with the front pushing through Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 PM Saturday... Cooler air will move in behind a cold front on Wednesday. Models then have considerable differences for the end of the week and into the weekend, although agreeing on unseasonably warm weather. Therefore, forecast confidence in precipitation is low during this period. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 03Z Sunday thru 00Z Monday... As of 940 PM Saturday... Band of rain with weak front will drop south overnight, exiting the southern most areas before Sunday morning. However, very light north winds and lingering low level moisture, with even some drizzle and higher northern mountain freezing drizzle, will keep IFR or LIFR until drier air works in from the north beginning after 06Z. Thus, PKB and CKB will improve to MVFR 09Z- 12Z, while remainder of TAFS continue IFR or LIFR. After 12Z drier air will continue to work slowly south, further improving conditions from north to south. Expect VFR at PKB CKB and EKN, MVFR at HTS and CRW, but continue IFR at BKW at around 16Z. Thereafter, VFR conditions progress south to include all but the southern coal fields and southern mountains where MVFR/IFR continue. Winds will remain north to northeast for the most part 3-7 KTS, except becoming southeast southern mountains Sunday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOw to Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing improving conditions thru the period may vary. Dense fog may additionally form later tonight in the north if clouds break earlier than forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 01/15/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY L L H L L L L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY H L M M M L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L M H L PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M M M M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L L L L AFTER 00Z MONDAY... IFR possible Sunday night into Monday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...JMV/30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...JMV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.