Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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569 FXUS61 KRLX 270550 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 150 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Active, mild pattern continues in a parade of southern stream systems. One departing early this morning with another crossing Monday night to Tuesday, and then another Thursday/Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 130 AM Monday... Showers coming to an end early this morning as one low pressure system begins to pull away. Have some low POPs across the northern mountains this morning to account for a possible lingering shower, however for most of the forecast area it should be dry into this afternoon. Then attention turns to a surface low working its way into the Lower Ohio River Valley this afternoon/evening. Upper level support will be weakening as the system moves into the area tonight. Still looks good for some thunder. Models do show some decent CAPE -- 500-800 J/kg in the Ohio River Valley. The NAM is not real impressive on shear -- however the RAP shows an area of 40-50kts bulk shear along and west of the Ohio River. Better chance of strong to severe storms should remain west of forecast area, but there is a low end chance of a strong storm making it into the Tri-State later today. Generally looking at basin average rainfall amounts around 0.25-0.5" late today and tonight. Higher amounts should be near and west of the Ohio River, closer to the low.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 4 PM Sunday... Upper level southern stream short wave trough crosses Monday night and Tuesday, bringing the next round of showers and thunderstorms. However, the timing of the system is such that the strongest thunderstorms will be to the west of the forecast area Monday afternoon, and then to the east on Tuesday afternoon. The system pulls out Tuesday afternoon and evening, but is likely to leave low level moisture behind in the form of stratus overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. High pressure sails across to the north of the area Wednesday, followed by a southeast flow developing in its wake by Thursday morning, beneath an upper level ridge. Temperatures close to central guidance and remaining above normal, even in the wake of the system midweek. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 4 PM Sunday... The next southern stream upper level low approaches Thursday through Friday, before passing north of the area Friday night. This brings a surface warm front, along with an initial round of rain or rain showers, Thursday afternoon and evening. The surface cold front crosses Friday evening, as the surface low passes north of the area Friday night. Models have come in good agreement on this system. Showers and thunderstorms are most likely Friday into Friday night, but with the typical downslope shadow effect west of the mountains Friday in strong south to southeast flow in the warm sector ahead of the cold front. Northwest flow behind the system may bring upslope rain showers in and near the WV mountains on Saturday, with the latter part of next weekend more likely to bring dry weather. However, models are not too divergent on timing of yet another southern upper level low approaching late next Sunday. Temperatures close to central guidance and lower than the MEX. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 130 AM Monday... Showers should be tapering off early this morning as a surface low begins to move away. Models somewhat split on possibility of MVFR ceilings this morning. Opted to include some. Could even get some IFR, but confidence to low to include at this point. Another low pressure system will bring showers and possibly a thunderstorms later today into tonight, with some MVFR to IFR possible in passing showers. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There may be a bit more IFR ceilings overnight and early Monday morning, and timing of improvement to VFR on Monday may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 03/27/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H M M M M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H L H M L L M M H L CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H M M M M M M L AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms late Monday night and Tuesday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...MZ

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