Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 221033 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 633 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak cold front exits the eastern mountains this morning. High pressure builds behind the front this afternoon, then low pressure and unsettled conditions return Wednesday and onward.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday... Satellite and radar images, and sfc obs suggested that the cold front was located along southeast OH at 3 AM, moving slowly east. The showers and storms activity along the cold front have decreased considerably overnight. Kept previous PoPs as they denoted a decreasing trend and have lingering showers over the east. The latest is supported by the high resolution model solutions. High pressure builds behind the cold front to bring clear skies and dry air mass to the area. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Monday... Not too many changes in the overall forecast. Weak low pressure will pass to our south and east on Tuesday with the best forcing remaining well to our east. I did bring in a chance for showers with highest PoP in the mountains, but guidance is in good agreement with keep any heavy rain in Central Virginia. Deep upper trough digs over the region on Wednesday. Strong surface low tracks up the Ohio Valley and into the Great Lakes, dragging a cold front through the region Wednesday night. This will spread widespread showers and possibly thunderstorms into our area, but with relatively low PWAT values we are not expecting any issues with flooding. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 240 AM Monday... Start the period with deep upper trough overhead and then sliding east of the area Thursday night. There will be a chance for a few showers on Thursday, but brief ridging start to build in later in the day. The pattern turns zonal thereafter and several waves move through the flow that will keep conditions unsettled through the weekend. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 630 AM Monday... Radar images and sfc obs show a weakening cold front movingn east of the OH River attm. Plenty of MVFR clouds are in place, but will begin to dissipate by early afternoon as dry and cool air mass filters behind the cold front. Sfc obs at PKB, HTS and CRW have veer from the northwest behind the front. Expect some clearing this afternoon and evening. By late tonight, weak boundary layered winds, clearing and enough low level moisture will allow for areas of dense fog during the predawn hours Tuesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings could be lower than expected. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M H M M H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L H H H M M M H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H M M M H H H M M AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... Dense fog is possible Tuesday morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...ARJ

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