Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 241843 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 243 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND. A FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. STRONGER FRONT MID TO LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WITH WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS LEAD TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WITH A WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADING FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...KEEPING MENTION OF RIVER FOG FOR SATURDAY MORNING...EVEN THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY HAVE SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. GENERALLY KEPT INHERITED FORECAST TEMPS IN PLACE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING OUT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS STRUGGLING SOME ON EXACTLY WHAT TO DO WITH THIS FRONT. THE GFS BLOWS THE FRONT ALL THE WAY THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY...THE NAM HAS IT WEAKENING AND WASHING OUT ACROSS CWA...THE NEW 12Z ECMWF IS CLOSE TO NAM. BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY -- WEAK FRONTS STRUGGLING TO CLEAR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING THE SUMMER -- STUCK CLOSER TO THE NAM/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH FRONTAL PROGRESS...WITH POPS LINGERING THROUGH MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SURFACE HIGH APPEARS TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW SOME MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH MID WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... IFR/VLIFR VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN IN RIVER VALLEYS...GENERALLY AFTER 08Z. FOG BURNS OFF AFTER 13-14Z FOR A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...DENSITY AND TIMING OF FOG BURN OFF FOR SATURDAY MORNING MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... NO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF IFR EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/MZ NEAR TERM...KMC SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...KMC

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.