Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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000
FXUS61 KRLX 151800
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
200 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and drizzle continue along and ahead of a cold front
through early this evening. Cooler and dry this weekend. Cold
to start the new work week, with snow showers.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 PM Friday...
A surface cold front continues to slowly work its way through the
region from northwest to southeast through this evening. Ahead and
along the cold front, patchy showers and perhaps an isolated rumble
of thunder will be possible through the afternoon. Some patchy
drizzle may briefly linger behind the cold front, but would not
expect any additional measurable amounts.
Could see some clearing toward dawn across southeast Ohio, which
given light winds and recent rainfall could yield some fog heading
into the morning Saturday and will code some up for these areas. Any
fog or remnant low clouds should mix out into substantially drier
air aloft by late morning with temperatures rising to near normal
values for this time of year by the afternoon.
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.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 200 PM Friday...
A front will move south into the area late Saturday night/early
Sunday, with light showers taking hold, mainly across northern
zones. Gusty winds can be expected with this front, particularly
across the northern mountain zones where stronger winds aloft will
have the potential to affect mountain peaks, with gusts 30 to 40 mph
common, possibly approaching advisory criteria at times on the
highest peaks.
By Monday, an upper trough will dig south across the area, bringing
in colder air and light snowfall to the region, with light snow
expected even across the lowlands. Accumulations should generally be
limited to the higher terrain however due to the warm ground. In
addition to the snow, CAA and increased pressure gradient will
result in rather gusty winds, and this combined with the cooler
temperatures will be a bit of a shock to the system after the warm
weather. Wind chills will be in the teens to 20s at times Monday
into Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1215 PM Friday...
A cool northwesterly flow remains across the area on Tuesday, with
the potential for another fast moving clipper type system affecting
the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, with additional light snow,
mainly across the northern mountains. Temperatures moderate towards
the end of the period as heights build and southerly flow increases
out ahead of another system, which looks to affect the area late in
the week into the weekend.
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.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 120 PM Friday...
Showers and light drizzle continue ahead of and along an approaching
cold front with deteriorating flight conditions ahead of and along
the front. Behind the front, improvement to MVFR ceilings is expect
late this afternoon and into this evening, with eventual clearing
across at least portions of SE OH and NW WV heading into daybreak
Saturday. With light winds and recent rainfall, this will likely
yield at least patchy fog, most likely to affect PKB and HTS, but
could easily extent to the other terminals. At BKW, upslope flow
likely yields persistent LIFR conditions shortly after winds switch
around to the northwest.
Winds westerly 8-10KTs, shifting west-northwest after frontal
passage, and turning light overnight.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Visibility in any patchy drizzle this
afternoon could be lower than advertised. Fog Saturday morning
could be more widespread and dense than advertised.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H L H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L
CKB CONSISTENCY M M H M H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/SL
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JP