Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 141022 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 522 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A front straddles the area through the weekend and into next week. An organized cold front comes through mid-week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 530 AM Saturday... Forecast on track no changes necessary. Most rainfall amounts are < 0.5". So a steady light rain is not piquing any concern for flooding. As of 215 AM Saturday... Periods of light rain training west to east through the forecast area along a stationary front. Colder air to the north inching closer and will brush our northern counties with freezing rain. It likely will not come far enough south to have any significant impacts in the southern most advised counties, but not confident enough to shave off a row of counties given the hour. Drastically decreased amounts in the mountains given the warmer obs, but still have a tenth to two tenths of ice in the farthest east portions of Randolph County. A break in the moisture feed will bring a lull in PoPs tonight
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Saturday... Pesky frontal boundary should be sinking south of the CWA to start the period with only some low end POPs across the south. POPs will begin increasing Sunday afternoon as the front oscillates back north as a warm front. Should cross Sunday night into Monday with rain. Surface temperatures in Perry and Morgan County in SE Ohio and possibly along the eastern slopes of the WV mountains will be near freezing as the precip moves in. Confidence is rather low on how everything will line up, but did include potential for freezing rain in the HWO for Perry and Morgan Counties where temperatures will be the most conducive to potential freezing rain. Should dry out some late Monday into Monday night as the front heads north. However do linger some slight chance to low chance POPs as a cold front is already approaching from the west late Monday night. Temperatures will run above normal through the period. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 AM Saturday... Stuck fairly close to a consensus blend for the extended. An upper low will cross the Northern Plains into the western Great Lakes Tuesday into Tuesday night, and quickly move east Wednesday. The GFS is a good bit faster than the ECMWF with this. At any rate, this upper low will drive a cold front through with rain showers Tuesday night into Wednesday. Beyond this, upper level NW flow behind the system keeps at least some low POPs in the forecast into Wednesday night before ridging starts developing. Have POPs increasing some toward the end of the week with the GFS showing a low lifting out of the Southern Plains. The ECMWF tries to keep the storm track south...and us drier to tend the work week. Not a big cold punch behind the front...with temperatures remaining above normal through the extended. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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00Z Saturday thru 00Z Sunday... As of 525 AM Saturday... Stationary front stalled across area making for a tricky TAF forecast. Very difficult to decipher between a VFR/IFR TAF. Went with the more pessimistic approach due to the shear number of restricted flight cats out there. Generally should remain sub- VFR for most of TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Many possibilities given abundance of low level moisture. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 01/14/17 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H L M M L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L L L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY M M L L M M M M M L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M H M L L PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H L L M M M M L L CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H M M M L L L L L AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... IFR possible Saturday night and Sunday in rain showers and a wintry mix, especially north.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Freezing Rain Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ009>011-017-019-020-031-032-523-524-526. OH...Freezing Rain Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>085. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...JW

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