Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 271959 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 259 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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COLD NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CLOUDS HAVING A HARD TIME ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS...WITH CLEAR SKIES STILL IN PLACE AT KBKW AND K6L4. CLOUDS STILL LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS NW 2/3 OF CWA ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME BREAKS. COLD AIR ALOFT IS SQUEEZING OUT SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THESE CLOUDS. EXPECT ANY SNOW TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THIS EVENING. DID PUT IN SOME TOKEN 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS CHARLESTON FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH WITH PEAKS OF SUN ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD ONLY BE ON GRASS...PAVEMENT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY WET. NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT...SO DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN FILLING IN ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AS THEY BEGIN TO ERODE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. ALSO HAVE A SLUG OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE DROPPING IN FROM THE NE...IMPACTING MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA WITH SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...CROSSING CWA ON WEDNESDAY. SUNSHINE MAY HELP MAKE IT FEEL WARMER...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID-30S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. A NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND IS FORESEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP DURING THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HORUS PER WAA ALOFT. EXPECT NIGHT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WARMING UP TO MID TO UPPER 40S BY THURSDAY AS TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO CWA WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. WARM ADVECTION IS SUGGESTED BY MODELS ON THURSDAY WITH H850 TEMPERATURES REACHING 4C UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACHES SOUTHEAST OH BY 18Z THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THEN...COLD ADVECTION RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO A MIX AND ULTIMATELY TO ALL SNOW. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN ON THE UPSLOPE MACHINE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH UP TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW FALLING OVER THE HIGHEST RIDGES IN A PERIOD OF 24 HOURS OR SO. ELSEWHERE...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 1 INCH. CONTINUED TO MENTIONING 2 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH COUNTY AVERAGE SEEMS NOT TO MEET CRITERIA ONLY BEYOND 12 HOURS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S MOST PLACES. A STRONG HIGH BUILDS STARTS IMPACTING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PUTTING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S FRIDAY...WITH LOWS INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING US SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS A TWO FOLD EVENT. A WE HAVE SEEN SO OFTEN THIS WINTER...WE HAVE A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN WHICH WE CANNOT QUITE PHASE THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MODELS DO NOT QUITE PHASE THE SYSTEMS...ALL FORECAST THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH WARM AIR NORTHWARD FOR PRIMARILY A RAIN EVENT ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY THERE COULD BE SOME ICE ESPECIALLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE GENERALLY SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AS THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW. IN ANY CASE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF PHASING...WILL GO WITH THE FASTER GFS MODEL...WHICH TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW UP THRU CENTRAL OHIO SUNDAY AND BRINGS THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY...AS MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. LOOK FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH CLOUDS AGAINST THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND HAVE MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH...MOISTURE HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS...HOWEVER DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE AT BKW EVENTUALLY. ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT...CROSSING ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING AND LOCATION OF CLEARING AREAS/HOLES IN THE STRATUS COULD VARY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE MVFR...AND EVEN VERY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EST 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H M M M M M H H M M M H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H M M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING IN SNOW SWITCHING TO RAIN. IFR ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/30 NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...MZ

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