Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 290754 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 354 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FRIDAY BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 715 PM UPDATE...CONVECTION IS SLOWLY DYING DOWN ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A SUPERCELL WAS OBSERVED ON RADAR THIS EVENING...WITH REPORTS OF GOLF BALL SIZE HALL...AS IT RODE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY. AS OF 715 PM...NO REPORTS OF WATER ISSUES IN THE CWA YET. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... AS OF 1730Z...FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR MGW ON WEST TO NORTH OF PKB AND SOUTH OF ZZV TO NORTH OF CVG. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE...SO WE STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SO THE LIKELY POPS WE INSERTED THIS MORNING...SHOULD STILL BE ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DID ADJUST HIGHER POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN WV COUNTIES TOO. DUE TO THE PAST RAINS OF 3 DAYS...AFTER COORDINATING WITH OUR HYDROLOGIST...WE WILL POST A SHORT TERM FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THOSE WETTEST COUNTIES. STILL CONCERNED WITH LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS OVER THE WET AREAS. OF COURSE...WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL AROUND 30 THSD FT PER THE RAP...WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE STORMS TOO. AS THAT FRONT SAGS SOUTH...LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS FIGURES ON FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...AS COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ADVECTED SOUTH AS 925 MB FLOW TURNS NW. HELD ONTO SOME 20 TO 40 POPS IN OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. TRIED TO LIFT CEILINGS 15 TO 18Z FRIDAY. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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OUR ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING...AS PWATS APPROACH 1.5 INCHES...ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. LOW MBE VECTOR LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SKINNY CAPE VALUES OVERNIGHT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY TRAINING CELLS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT...AND DUE TO HEAVY RAIN RECEIVED THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN SOME AREAS...WE CAN EXPECT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE TO BE FAIRLY LOW AND ANY HEAVY RAIN FOR A PERIOD OF TIME COULD CAUSE ISSUES. WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON DAY 2. LOW PRESSURE PASSES OUR CWA ON SUNDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THR REGION. STILL EXPECTING A JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 J/KG RANGE...AND ALSO SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS...SOME STORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE MAIN CONCERN THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH AND EAST BY MONDAY...BUT MODELS BRING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH...SO HAVE SHOWERS LINGERING. THE 00Z ECMWF THEN SHOWS A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BULGING IT BACK NORTH TUESDAY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THE 12Z ECMWF IS EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE SURGING THE FRONT BACK NORTH WITH THIS WAVE...AND WOULD SPELL PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER GFS KEEPS THE ENTIRE THING FARTHER SOUTH. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW UNTIL THIS BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED. OTHERWISE REMAINED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MOVED NORTHEAST OUT OF OUR AREA. CLEARING IS SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE. MVFR LOW CEILINGS OR FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL ESPECIALLY CKB WITH IFR FOG DEVELOPING BY 08Z. EXPECT GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 15-18Z...WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE LOW CEILINGS FORMING OVERNIGHT AND LOWER VSBY MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 04/29/16 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M L L M M M M M H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L L M M M H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...ARJ

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