Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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539 FXUS61 KRLX 221305 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 631 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level trough keeps clouds showers and clouds through this morning. High pressure late today into Sunday. Re- enforcing moisture-starved cold front Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 334 AM Saturday... The upper low pressure system exit to our northeast today. A high pressure system builds from the Gulf states, northeast into the OH Valley and WV. Colder and drier air mass will provide good weather conditions through Sunday. Models are in agreement with the cold air mass moving into the area. h850 temperature reaching minus 3C degrees could switch lingering light rain or drizzle into light snow. Snow accumulations will be limited and probably melt upon contact with the ground. Expect improving conditions through Sunday. Temperatures will be slightly below normal. Used the blend of models for temperatures through the period. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Saturday... Surface high pressure is overhead to start the period with mostly clear skies and temperatures climbing above normal. Guidance is in agreement that a weak cold front will pass on Sunday night into Monday morning, however the current thinking is most areas will be dry with only a slight chance of a shower in the mountains. Flow will likely be strong enough Sunday night to prevent fog formation...however we could see widespread fog overnight Monday with weak flow and mostly clear skies expected overnight. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 315 AM Saturday... The upper ridge continues will be overhead through at least mid week. Guidance was in fairly good agreement with the system towards the end of the week and then the 00Z guidance came in. Now, some of the guidance is progressive with the front pushing through while other solutions hold the surface high overhead and this would keep us dry. For now I used a blend of operational and ensemble guidance for days 5 - 7 and will keep PoP around 60 for now. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 637 AM Saturday... Gusty north to northwest winds will continue to bring light rain showers or drizzle to the northeast mountains at least through 16z. IFR ceilings are expected to continue under this flow over BKW and EKN during the morning hours. Satellite images show plenty of clouds upstream. It will take some time for the dry air to push lingering moisture away from the area to see clearing. Expect MVFR/IFR ceilings through at least 16Z mainly over the northeast counties. Widespread VFR conditions expected from 16Z through the end of the period. If the clearing materialize, we can expect dense valley fog overnight tonight into Sunday morning. Any dense fog or low stratus overnight should gradually dissipate by mid Sunday morning with widespread VFR conditions spreading from west to east. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR possible in drizzle, especially in the mountains, overnight into early Saturday morning. While confidence is high in an improving trend during the day on Saturday, the timing may vary. Wind gusts will vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. Missing. AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... IFR in valley fog possible Sunday morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...ARJ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.