Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 130543 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1243 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Snow showers continue this evening in cold air advection. Another system arrives by late week with another chance for snow showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 630 PM Tuesday... No changes necessary. As of 115 PM Tuesday... Strong cold air advection behind a cold front will continue this evening. This will combine with an upslope flow and a plume off of Lake Michigan to provide some snow showers. With the arctic air becoming drier as the night progresses, the snow showers will become tighter against the mountains except in the lake plume. This plume should gradually lift northward overnight. Will continue the Winter Weather Advisory for portions of the WV mountains for snow. The combination of winds and cold temperatures will push wind chills in the higher elevations into the -10 to -20 F range. Will continue the Wind Chill Advisory for these areas. Warm air advection can be expected on Wednesday as a warm front lifts northward. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM Tuesday... Low pressure will move across the region just north of the CWA Wednesday night with its trailing cold front passing early Thursday morning. Temps will still be cold enough for snow as it passes. More accumulations are possible in favorable upslope areas into Thursday morning. As the front exits Thursday another good shot of cold air will infiltrate the area. Another clipper system will bring yet another round of snow and snow showers to the area on Friday into Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 233 AM Tuesday... High pressure will briefly be in control with a warm front posed to our west and north on Saturday. This will keep the weather dry with warmer temperatures expected. Low pressure is expected to approach the area from the southwest on Sunday and then push east Sunday night. Temperatures on a southwesterly flow should be warm enough to bring rain to the lowlands and a rain to rain/snow mix in the mountains. Flow becomes more zonal for the beginning of the work week with high pressure mainly in control. Seasonable temperatures for this time of year area expected. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 1245 AM Wednesday... Still a few lines of snow showers streaming through the area, although the coverage continues to diminish from west to east. Overall, conditions are MVFR to VFR with just brief periods of IFR for those that get into a snow band. Should see continued improvement to VFR through the day on Wednesday and our next system will arrive tomorrow night. However, impacts from this next weak system may occur after 06Z Thursday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of snow showers ending could vary as well as any restrictions they may cause. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 12/13/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L M M H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... Another round of snow is expected late Wednesday night and Thursday, particularly across the north, with IFR conditions possible in snow showers.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for WVZ516- 518-520-522>526. Wind Chill Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ518- 520-522>526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY NEAR TERM...RPY/SL SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...MPK/SL

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