Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 151128 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 728 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms into Friday as a cold front gradually passes through the region. Cooler and dry this weekend. Cold to start the new work week, with snow showers for some. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 725 AM Friday... Made some significant reductions to PoPs this morning to better reflect current conditions. Should see some additional showers developing ahead of an approaching cold front late morning into this afternoon. As of 225 AM Friday... A weak low pressure system developed along a lingering cold front northeast of the area this morning. This cold front will push southeast today, spreading showers and a few afternoon thunderstorms mainly across the WV lowlands. Although the best instability stays west of the area, plenty of deep layered shear and SRH will be present under PWATs around 1 inch to support moderate to heavy showers. Very weak CAA at H850 and behind the front will keep about normal temperatures this afternoon, generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the lowlands, ranging into the lower 50s higher elevations. A few showers may linger across the south and the mountains Friday evening before drier and cooler weather takes hold for the weekend. Central guidance suggests clear skies developing across the Middle Ohio valley tonight. The clearing and subsiding winds will promote patchy dense fog over areas that previously received rainfall.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Friday... To start this period off on Saturday, we have upper level zonal flow and surface high pressure which will hold the area at bay from unsettled weather. Temperatures will be trending downward from what the area has been enduring which will be right above seasonable. For Sunday, a low pressure system to the north will traverse across the region eastward promoting some slight chance POPs of rain for the northern periphery of the CWA. The features frontal boundary will hang just down into our area, which should be fairly dry, but will still have potential to see a shower or two in that region. This will reinforce cooler temperatures dropping them down to right around seasonable, maybe even a few degrees below for Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 230 AM Friday... Starting Monday, a clipper type system will spread some snow potential to the area with accumulations mainly across the mountains. Some accumulations got into the forecast from central guidance across some of the lowlands, but with warm ground temperatures and surface temperatures in the low 40s forecast that day, it will be difficult to get any accumulations unless the surface temperatures decrease by then. Regardless, only little to no accumulations are expected in the lowlands anyways with slightly higher amounts up to 2 inches in the northeast mountains through the afternoon. Some lingering showers may add to the totals in the mountains for the rest of the day on Monday, however the additional amounts would likely be insignificant to the actual totals. For Tuesday, cooler trends will persist with slight chances for some more snow showers in the northeast mountains mainly. Temperatures will start to trend warmer on Wednesday lasting through the rest of this period with dryer weather until possibly late Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 649 AM Friday... Lingering stratiformed light rain exits east of the Appalachians by 12Z. A cold front is expected to dig southeast today, spreading additional rain showers. Although guidance suggests limited bouyancy, dynamic instability is high/enough to promote afternoon thunderstorms, mainly along and east of the OH River. General guidance suggest ceilings will become MVFR behind the cold front, affecting most terminals by 18Z. Brief periods of IFR conditions are expected along showers or storms path this afternoon. Rain gradually dissipates from northwest to southeast by Friday evening. Flight conditions will gradually deteriorate this evening as the cold front exits southeast. Some areas of IFR under dense fog could develop over areas where skies clear overnight tonight. South to southwest winds less than 10 knots will become northwest behind the cold front this afternoon and evening. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms today could vary. Timing of reduced ceilings this afternoon or tonight may vary from the forecast. Brief periods of IFR restrictions are possible within heavier showers this afternoon. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 03/15/24 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H M H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H H H M M H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H EKN CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H M H H M M AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JZ NEAR TERM...ARJ/JP SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...JZ AVIATION...ARJ

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