Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 271925 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 325 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... INSTABILITY IS COMING AT A PREMIUM TODAY...AND WHILE THERE IS ENOUGH HEATING TAKING PLACE TO FIRE STORMS ALONG A LINE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BARELY GETTING ANY LIGHTNING OUT OF THIS. AS THE LINE MOVES EASTWARD INTO A SLIGHTLY BETTER ENVIRONMENT...ACTIVITY COULD INCREASE. BUT FOR NOW...CONVECTION IS UNDERWHELMING. NOT GIVING UP ON IT JUST YET...HOWEVER. A LINE OF SHOWERS IS NOW FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT ITSELF MENTIONED ABOVE...BUT AGAIN, TOPS ARE LOW FOR THE TIME BEING. WRAP AROUND STRATOCUMULUS WILL GET SLUNG BACK INTO THE CWA AFTER THE DRY SLOT PASSES AND THE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OHIO. CAN EXPECT SHOWERS FROM THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND AS THE MOISTURE HANGS ON THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. STRETCH THE ISOLATED TO CHANCE POPS DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING PEAK HEATING. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH ONLY BRIEF BREAKS IN THE WEATHER SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE AREA ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES ALOFT. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES AGAIN ON SOUTHERLY FLOW BY LATER MONDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM...INDICATED BY ALL THE MODELS...DROP DOWN FROM THE UPPER MID WEST AND RACES ACROSS THE OHO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. GOOD DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO HANG UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING TUESDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER UPEPR DISTURBANCE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY AND ACTS MUCH LIKE THIS FRIST FRONT...KEEPING THE WEATHER ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE. DURING THIS PERIOD... HOWEVER...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE LESS THAN THIS LAST SYSTEM...SO FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE LESS. TEMEPATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE MODERATE SIDE NEXT WEEK...AFTER A CHILLY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... GIVEN THE CONTINUATION OF A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS AND FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK...WILL GENERALLY KEEP THIS PERIOD UNSETTLED. HARD TO TIME THESE SYSTEMS...SO WILL BROADBRUSH AND KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...EVEN AS THE COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS EXITS EAST BY MONDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LINE OF CONVECTION NOW ON THE OHIO RIVER...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING AS OF 1745Z. JUST 40 OR SO MILES TO THE WEST IS THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH A SECONDARY LINE OF SHOWERS. NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF PREVAILING CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS. ONLY USING SPARSE VCTS AND SHRA IN THIS ISSUANCE. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND IT. THIS WILL BE THE CAUSE OF MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 05Z TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THIS PATTERN WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. WINDS STAY UP WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...SO FOG NOT LIKELY AN ISSUE. ONLY HAVE VIS RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION TIMING AND CONDITIONS COULD VARY TODAY. TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR STRATOCU TONIGHT MAY VARY. AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>040-046-047. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...26

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