Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 221731 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1231 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WARM BUT BREEZY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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JUST A FEW RAIN SHOWERS STILL LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...BUT MOISTURE IS PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT THESE TO DRIFT NORTH AND TAPER OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS DECK IS EVEN BREAKING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN OH AND NORTHERN KY. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS FINALLY KICKING IN AND HAVE RAISED TODAYS HIGHS A GOOD DEAL...AND MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH YET. AFTER A BRIEF DRIER PERIOD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MOISTURE REALLY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. HAVE POPS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TOMORROW...WITH GFS SHOWING UP TO 80 KTS AT 850MB. ADD IN SOME DOWNSLOPING WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW...AND EXPECT A VERY BREEZY AFTERNOON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES. DO NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH WINDS FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP WATCHING THIS. ALSO TRIED TO GO WITH LOWER POPS IN THE DRY DOWNSLOPING REGION. HOLDING OFF ON LIKELY POPS FOR THOSE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. INCREASED BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS. BLENDED MET INTO THE LOWS...AND USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV INTO MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID. THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST. COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY 06 TUESDAY. WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST. MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION. SHORTWAVES ARE MORE EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW. TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NAM SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A BRIEF DROP INTO MVFR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THINK THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE SO LEFT OUT FOR NOW. SW FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME GUSTY AND MORE SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY. IN EASTERLY FLOW DOWNSLOPING PRONE AREAS COULD SEE SOME GUSTS 30-40KTS LATER SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST CWA SUNDAY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...MZ

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