Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 140550 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 150 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Unsettled weather to start the work and school week. High pressure brings drier weather on Wednesday but returning to unsettled pattern to end the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 130 AM Monday... Surface trough and upper level ripple/vort max already spewing clouds into the forecast area. Most models in agreement with increasing showers south and east of the Ohio River around sunrise. Have likely POPs across the mountains of WV into SW VA today, with scattered showers across the WV lowlands tapering off to isolated shower mention along the Ohio River. Models -- other than the GFS -- show activity decreasing this evening. But then increasing again overnight as another wave passes. Opted to just go with isolated to scattered wording for showers tonight along and east/south of the Ohio River.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 310 PM Sunday... Weak high pressure will eventually take control of the weather across the region. As a result, shower and thunderstorm chances mainly in the mountains for Tuesday will end by Tuesday night. Generally used a consensus of model data for lows Tuesday night as well as highs for Tuesday.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 310 PM Sunday... Models suggest southwest flow will develop with several mid- level disturbances progged to impact the region. As a result... an unsettled pattern will become established beginning Wednesday night. Have likely Pops for parts of our area Thursday through Friday with some guidance suggesting likely Pops should continue into Saturday. However because of uncertainty, have kept Pops as chance. Cold front pushes southeast on Saturday with precipitation chances ending from the northwest. Once again, used a consensus of model data for low and high temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 130 AM Monday... Cirrus on the increase tonight makes the fog forecast a bit difficult. Think the clouds will be thick enough to limit IFR, so just included some MVFR at northern sites where clouds will be thinnest. Also included MVFR at CRW early on, but take it back out as clouds build. Surface trough and upper level disturbance will bring showers today, with the best chance across the coal fields and mountains. Did not include any IFR in this activity. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Dense river valley fog possible if holes linger in clouds. Timing and category in showers today may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 08/14/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H M L M M M M M H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H H L AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR valley fog possible early Tuesday morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...MZ

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