Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 161717 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 117 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY. WARMER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT LATE MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE...AND DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS DROPPING DOWN TO OR BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN. HILL TOP LOCATIONS PROBABLY WONT GET AS COLD TONIGHT DUE TO NIGHTIME INVERSION...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT PUFFS OF WIND. KEPT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT IN THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHTS LOWS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY...WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. WITH THE DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...EXPECT A LARGE DIURNAL SWING. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT EXPECTING AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT DUE TO RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... FIRST FOR THURSDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY BREEZES TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A WELL DEFINED SPLIT IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION. THERE IS PERSISTENT CONSENSUS IN LITTLE CHANCE OF PHASING...AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEPARATION OF THE TWO STREAMS. THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WITH ATTENDING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE SYSTEM DIRECTLY AFFECTING THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER/SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE CMC MODEL CONTINUES TO BE A STRONG NORTHERN OUTLIER ON THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM AS IT TRIES TO DROP SOME NORTHERN ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN UPPER LOW...BUT STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH OF THE AREA. TIMING IS SIMILAR WITH THE COLD FRONT...COMING THRU THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THERE IS ONLY MODEST UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY NORTH...SO A BIG QUESTION IS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO ACT ON. THERE IS CONSENSUS FOR LIMITED MOISTURE TO BE INGESTED NORTHWARD FOR OUR SYSTEM TO ACT ON. CERTAINLY NOTHING SPECIAL WITH THE PW/S...AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AT BEST...SO CANNOT RULE OUT KEEPING AT LEAST THE EXISTING LOWER POPS IN THE FORECAST. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT. WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY LATER ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PROBABLY MUCH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH QPF. AM DISCOUNTING THE NAM WITH A BATCH OF SHOWERS EARLIER ON FRIDAY...LIKELY DUE TO FEEDBACK PROBLEMS FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY AND WILL OMIT THUNDER. IN ALL...A VERY MODEST EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THIS PERIOD...WITH JUST MINOR COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PREFERRED SOLUTION WITH MAINLY LOW POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WILL REMAIN SEASONAL AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED. && .AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z THURSDAY... EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-18KTS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 23Z WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN AFTER 14Z THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>032. OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067- 075-076-083>087. KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ101>103- 105. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/50/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...SL

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