Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 292011 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 311 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A wave of low pressure moves northeastward tonight, pushing a front through on cold Wednesday. Cooler high pressure to end the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 140 PM Tuesday... Models have shifted further west with the main rain band overnight. Therefore have lowered pops in some areas, especially the southeastern counties. A cold front comes through on Wednesday with a fairly good line and some instability. Could see some thunder with this system. Some differences still exist in model timing of the cold front, so although there is a high confidence in showers on Wednesday, confidence is lower in the timing. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Tuesday... Expecting post frontal precipitation in the northeast mountains, light, with a trace of snow possible in the highest elevations. These low POPs will continue through early Friday in the moist low level flow in place. Flow aloft turns zonal for the end of the week.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Tuesday... Inconsistencies abound in the extended with a weak upper trough for the end of the weekend and a developing baroclinic zone across the south. Another frontal system is in the works for late Monday night and Tuesday. Expecting the pattern to tighten up bit in terms of separating the systems in the extended, and thus, shorter periods of POPs in upcoming forecasts. But the pattern will remain on the active side with quick moving events.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1225 PM Tuesday... A mix of clouds and sunshine can be expected this afternoon. Some clouds early this afternoon could be MVFR, but will rise to VFR by mid afternoon. VFR conditions will generally continue this evening, although some developing showers could cause some restrictions. An area of precipitation will then develop later tonight, causing areas of MVFR conditions. A cold front will push through on Wednesday with a band of showers and/or thunderstorms causing IFR/MVFR restrictions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High this afternoon and evening, then medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and development of rain and associated restrictions this morning and again tonight may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M L M H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR possible with a cold front Wednesday afternoon. IFR possible in the mountains in upslope clouds through Friday, mainly in the higher elevations. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/26 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...RPY

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