Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 212347 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 747 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL INCREASES ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 740 PM UPDATE...ADDED SOME DRIZZLE IN ACROSS MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO THIN OUT. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AND BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE A SLOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. KEPT SLGT CHC POPS IN MAINLY NORTH BEFORE IT WASHES OUT FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. THE HIGH AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY HAVE TO WATCH TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS AS IT COULD BE A CHILLY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AGAIN...THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AND CONTINUED TO NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES. LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ON SUNDAY AND REMAINING TO THE NORTH AFTERWARDS. WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ONCE THE WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... UNFORTUNATELY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF CWA...BUT DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE NW. THINK IT WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH TO STILL GET SOME VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...WITH MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE. HOWEVER SHOULD DRIER AIR ARRIVE FASTER...OR WINDS REMAIN A BIT STRONGER THAN FORECAST...FOG MAY NOT FORM. SECOND UNCERTAINTY IS HOW QUICKLY LOW CIGS SCATTER OUT AND LIFT. EXPECT VFR ON FRIDAY AFTER ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES. COULD GET A QUICK SPRINKLE DURING THE DAY AS A VERY WEAK IMPULSE CROSSES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: VERY LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...OR EVEN OF EXISTENCE FOG MAY VARY. TIMING OF CIG CHANGES MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 05/20/15 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M H M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H M M M M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M H H M M H H .AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/JS/JW NEAR TERM...JS/MZ SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...MZ

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