Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 250147 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 943 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. FRONT ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY SINKS DOWN INTO REGION WEDNESDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 945 PM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO SOME SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS EVENING...DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO MOST OF THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME MOISTURE REMAINING ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FIRE A COUPLE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE FAR WEST...SO ADDED SOME SMALL POPS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... QUIET WX THRU TUESDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH. UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO GET PINCHED BY WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SE OH LATE WHERE SOME CHANCE POPS WERE INSERTED. BLENDED INHERITED TEMPS IN WITH LASTED CONSENSUS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS ALLOW THE FRONT TO SLIP S OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. AS SUCH HAVE SOME POPS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF FRONT. FRONT BECOMES RATHER DIFFUSE NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN INTO THE AREA THRU SATURDAY. WILL WATCH S/W TROF EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA. TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO AVERAGE. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 00Z MONDAY THRU 00Z TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. A MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY PREVAIL ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS TIL 13Z...AFFECTING THAT AREA AND BKW WITH MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 2000 FEET. ELSEWHERE...VFR MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT IFR/LIFR VALLEY AND RIVER FOG WILL BE FORMING OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. THIS WILL AFFECT THE MAJOR TERMINALS EXCEPT BKW. EXPECT LIFR IN CRW AND EKN...IFR HTS...PKB...CKB. AFTER 13Z VFR MOSTLY CLEAR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS TONIGHT. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS TONIGHT COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 08/25/14 UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L L L H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M L L L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L H H AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG EARLY TUESDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30 NEAR TERM...RPY/JMV SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...JMV

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