Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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795 FXUS61 KRLX 201940 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 240 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure today yields to southwest flow tonight and Tuesday. Cold front crosses Tuesday night. High pressure again through Thanksgiving. Cold front crosses Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 202 PM Monday... Main forecast concern through the near term will be temperatures and winds as southwest flow engages behind a departing high pressure system and in advance of an approaching cold front. With light winds anticipated early tonight, prime radiational cooling conditions will result in a quick temp drop toward dewpoints which currently reside in the low 20s. Temps will level off later in the night across the lowlands as winds begin to stir. However, sheltered mountain valleys will stay decoupled through much of the night allowing them to fall deep into the 20s. Winds will ramp up quickly after dawn on Tuesday as we mix up into stronger winds aloft. Gusts 20 to 25 mph are expected out of the southwest. The strong mixing and partial sunshine will help boost temps into the 50s to near 60 for most locations outside of the higher mountains. Clouds will be on the increase through the day, but expect any precip with the approaching front to hold off until Tuesday night. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 240 PM Monday... This period begins with a cold front approaching from the northwest. Although we are expecting precipitation, amounts still remain on the light side as the WPC QPF is only around one tenth of an inch. Models indicate the northern quarter of our area and the mountains will be the only locations that will see the precipitation change over to a snow or rain/snow mix as this system moves out early Wednesday. Prefrontal temperatures will be near normal Tuesday night, but will drop quickly as cold air moves. Temperatures Wednesday and Wednesday night will be around 10 degrees below normal.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 240 PM Monday... High pressure, with below normal temperatures and light winds, will be present Thanksgiving Day until early Saturday morning. Although models still disagree somewhat another rain or rain/snow event, especially for the northern part of our area, is possible as yet another cold front moves in.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1248 PM Monday... Surface high pressure will slide by to our south over the next 24 hours as a cold front drops across the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley. This will yield increasing southwesterly flow which should preclude any fog formation tonight. While surface winds will stay generally light through tonight, they will increase and become gusty after dawn on Tuesday as the front approaches. The southwest flow may transport just enough moisture northward west of the mountains to produce a stratocu field for a few hours Tuesday morning for HTS but am not expecting any ceilings at this time. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A brief period of MVFR ceilings may occur Tuesday morning at HTS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...ABE SHORT TERM...AB LONG TERM...AB AVIATION...ABE

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