Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 160557 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1257 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...LINGERING PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1000 PM UPDATE... BACKED OFF ON POPS A BIT OVERNIGHT BASED ON UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED QUITE A BIT IN THE PROTECTED VALLEYS DESPITE INCREASE IN CIRRUS. THINK THOSE AREAS SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A TEMP RISE AS BL FLOW INCREASES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... THANKFULLY THE LOW CLOUDS EVAPORATED AS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SUNSHINE PLENTIFUL THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LIGHT WINDS...FULL MIXING MAY NOT BE REALIZED. DID NOT LOWER DEW POINT AS MUCH EITHER FOR REST OF THE DAY. CONTINUED WITH THE ADJUSTMENT WE MADE THIS MORNING. THINKING WITH STILL A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NO CEILINGS...THAT THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MAY SEE THEIR TEMP DROP TOWARD FREEZING...BEFORE RISING A FEW DEGREES AND CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS APPROACH DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. SO NO MENTION OF FREEZING PCPN AT THIS TIME. SOME FOG MAY EVEN FOR LATE THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE MOST MINIMUM TEMPS TONIGHT BY MIDNIGHT. WITH BREEZE FORECAST TO HOLD IN THE MID OH VALLEY AND CLOUDS THERE FIRST...MILDER MIN TEMPS THERE. THINKING NAM MOS POPS STILL TOO HIGH...PREFER LEAVING IN LKLY RANGE NOT CATEGORICAL OVERNIGHT. MAY BE A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND COOLING ALOFT...LOWERING CEILINGS AND CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS SHOWING SOME COLD ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT APPEAR COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...SO WILL GO WITH SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOUNDINGS FINALLY GET COLD ENOUGH BY LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE GETS VERY THIN. WILL KEEP A FEW FLURRIES IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. CANADIAN/ECMWF/AND GFS ALL BRING CLOUDS IN FROM THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...WHILE NAM STAYS FURTHER SOUTH. WILL GO WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS. WITH DRY LOW LEVELS IN PLACE HOWEVER...WILL ONLY GO WITH CLOUDS...AND NOT PRECIPITATION. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... LONG TERM FORECAST STILL CENTERED ON STORM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN GULF FOR THIS WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE COLLECTIVELY TRENDED SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW. THIS KEEPS THINGS COLDER...BUT ALSO SHUNTS THE MOISTURE SOUTH. PREVIOUS ECMWF RUN PHASED UPPER AND LOWER LOWS EARLY ON...BUT 12Z RUN DOES NOT...WHICH AGREES BETTER WITH RECENT GFS AND CMC RUNS. KEPT THE MAX POPS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...LEANING PRETTY HEAVILY ON WPC GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... PREFRONTAL SHOWERS BEGINNING TO FILL THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO GET MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY HAVE MVFR CEILINGS COMING INTO PLAY WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING IFR WITH THESE SHOWERS AS THE INTENSITY SHOULD NOT BE SUCH TO WARRANT THIS. POST FRONTAL WINDS COME OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 20KTS WITH SHOWERS ENDING AFTER 18Z...AND EARLIER FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BRIEF IFR CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 12/16/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M L M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L H H M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN CLOUDS DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/MZ NEAR TERM...KTB/30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...26

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.