Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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363 FXUS61 KRLX 172054 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 354 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front pushes through this afternoon into tonight. Active pattern continues with another warm system for the end of the week and yet another early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 2 PM Tuesday... Warm front has passed through the region and temperatures are now climbing into the upper 50s to low 60s. Cold front will enter the Ohio Valley this afternoon and be through the region later tonight. Not much upper level support with the front as such, the shower activity will be isolated across the Eastern Forecast Area. Showers will likely be more numerous in the mountains with upslope enhancement but still not enough confidence in coverage to go with categorical PoP. Quite a bit of stratus behind the front trapped below inversion at about 4K feet. Clouds will likely persist through the forecast period with possibly even some patchy drizzle in some areas. Well mixed as well below this inversion and winds will be a bit gusty behind the front out of the west from 15 to 25 mph. Another short wave/positive tilted upper system passes through the region tomorrow and will likely bring more showers to the mountains. Enough cold air looks to filter in aloft to change rain over to snow across the higher elevations, but not thinking much in the way of accumulation. Some uncertainty on exactly how high the rain/snow line will be. Right now, forecast guidance supports a rain/snow mix above 2500 feet and all snow above 3000 to 3500 feet. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 PM Tuesday... Upper level ridging and surface high pressure bring dry weather Wednesday night into Thursday. However, low level moisture trapped beneath an inversion will keep stratus / low stratocu around well into Thursday. By the time the low clouds break up, higher clouds will be on the increase, in response to an upper level negatively tilted short wave trough approaching from the southwest. This system, an upper level low over the desert southwest this afternoon, opens up as it lifts through the area Thursday night and Friday. Models disagree on the onset of the rain late Thursday, but another decent rain will keep area soils soggy. With the short wave trough lifting through a ridge position near the east coast, short wave ridging quickly builds in its wake Friday night, and the system is largely tantamount to a big warm front. This will leave friday night mild, with areas of low cloud and fog. No important deviations from guidance temperatures, above normal and nearly entirely above freezing. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 350 PM Tuesday... Area begins this period under large scale ridging on Saturday, but this ridge is quickly shunted to the east, as a big piece of energy from the long wave trough position out west pushes east, toward the area. This system begins as a large upper level low, that then opens up into a short wave trough as it lifts out through the area Monday-Tuesday. This is likely to bring rain showers back into the area on Sunday. These showers may become rather chaotic in coverage by Monday given we have an aging upper low that then opens up and weakens. Given model concurrence of the amplitude of the system, an HWO heads up may be considered for wind and rain, mainly as the system initially moves into the area. The weather dries out Tuesday as the system exits to the northeast. Temperatures close to guidance, and continuing above normal. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200 PM Tuesday... Isolated showers through the region this afternoon with scattered showers in the mountains tonight as a weak cold front pushes through. Some heavier showers will bring some brief IFR conditions across the north with PKB and CKB starting off the 18Z period with these showers overhead. Outside of showers we will likely see VFR visibilities and MVFR stratus. Stratus field behind the cold front is robust and should persist through the TAF period, and although for the most part guidance keeps ceilings just above IFR there is still some uncertainty that some sites may drop below, especially in the mountains. Winds will be gusty out of the west behind the front as well. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of areas of showers will vary, along with category changes. Brief IFR possible and IFR possible in mountains with low level clouds tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M H L H M M M H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H L M M H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H M L M H M M H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H M H L M H M H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H M AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR possible in rain Thursday night into Friday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...MPK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.