Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 190728 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 217 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MODERATING TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...PROVIDING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS SET IN...WHICH SHOULD END ANY PRECIPITATION. WILL REMOVE POPS FOR THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOWING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAILS BEHIND THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ARE NOT GOOD. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES AUTO CONVECTIVE IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. TRICKY PART HERE IS WHETHER THE MOISTURE BECOMES TOO THIN BY THE TIME THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. WILL CARRY SOME SMALL POPS FOR NOW. WITH WINDS AND CLOUDS TONIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A CLIPPER LIKE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING BACK COLD TEMPERATURES AND SOME GUSTY WINDS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BRINGS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...AND GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. MODELS SUGGEST FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY WITH H850 MINUS 5C TEMPERATURE LINE SOUTH OF WV BY 06Z FRIDAY. THIS SUGGESTS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS LOWLANDS...RANGING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THESE TEMPERATURES...ANY PCPN WILL REMAIN FROZEN IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES BECOME LESS COLD UNDER A WEAK WARM ADVECTION AT H850...ENOUGH TO BRING THE READINGS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING LOWLANDS...BUT REMAINING BELOW FREEZING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SKIES CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN TOWARD MORNING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RETURN FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH...IN COMBINATION WITH APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL OPEN UP THE FORECAST AREA TO AN INCREASE IN GULF FED MOISTURE ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. EURO AND GFS MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN TIMING THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SET MAINLY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. MADE MINOR CHANGE TO STEP BACK ON POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY BASED ON CURRENT MODEL TRENDS. ALSO INTRODUCED SOME THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY AS ENOUGH DYNAMICS AND MID LEVEL STABILITY AROUND TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE FORECAST. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LONG TERM MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE ATTENDANT BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY ALIGNED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. DUE TO THE SUBTLE UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD....USED USED WPC VALUES WITH A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN PROVIDE SOME MVFR CEILINGS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 11/19/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/ARJ NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...RPY

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