Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 181815 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 215 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. MUGGY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH SHOWERS AND FOG OVERNIGHT. A VERY HUMID AND ACTIVE PATTERN NEARLY EVERYDAY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CENTER OF SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF CRW AT 18Z. THE BULK OF PCPN IS NOTICED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE LOW...BUT HAS DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS LOW WILL EXIT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT LEAVING ONLY RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MOGGY AIR MASS. DEWPOINTS UPSTREAMS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THESE DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT...A DETERMINANT FACTOR FOR LOWS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. DECREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AS WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A LARGE AREA OF DRIER AIR MOVING OUR WAY. HOWEVER...ON TUESDAY...WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOW FAT CAPE FEATURE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS ON TUESDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED SREF AND CONSENSUS MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS GRADUALLY TO CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... WITH SCHOOL UNDERWAY IN MANY LOCATIONS...IT APPEARS SUMMER IS FINALLY GETTING UNDER WAY IN ERNEST. AN ACTIVE...VERY WARM AND HUMID PATTERN ENSUES WITH A NEARLY DAILY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE ACTIVE...THE SYSTEMS ARE NOT NEAR AS AMPLIFIED AS THEY HAD BEEN MOST OF THE ACTUAL SUMMER...WITH NO SIGNS OF THE INTRUSIONS OF REFRESHING CANADIAN AIR THAT WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR...TO THE POINT WHERE THE LAST COOL SPELL MAY BE LOOKED AT THE END OF LAST SPRING RATHER THAN A HARBINGER OF THE UPCOMING FALL. TUE MORNING FINDS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM MOVING IN EARLY THIS MORNING....WITH LOTS OF STRATUS AND SOME FOG. OTHERWISE HAVE THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY DRY PRECIPITATION WISE EARLY ON. HOWEVER...THE EXITING SYSTEM DOES NOT FEATURE MUCH FORCING FOR DOWNWARD MOTION NOR MUCH DRYING...SO TOUGH TO REMOVE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE ENTIRE AREA OR FOR VERY LONG. UPPER FLOW REMAINS DIFFLUENT AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. ITS APPROACH...AND DIURNAL HEATING...LEAD TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCE ANYWHERE IN THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING W TO E DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH AMPLE IF NOT TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND 30 KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW IN LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHEAR...THE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BECOME QUITE STRONG AND HEAVY TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MENTION SO IN HWO WITH SWODY2 SEE TEXT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SYSTEM PULLS OUT TUE NT/WED MORNING...BUT AGAIN WITHOUT MUCH NEGATIVE FORCING NOR CHANGE OF AIR MASS. NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS A NEAR REPEAT PERFORMANCE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXCEPT FOR LESS MID LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND A LITTLE LESS MOISTURE...SO THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG NOR HEAVY. THIS SYSTEM EXITS OVERNIGHT...BUT AGAIN WITHOUT A CLEAN BREAK...AS A FRONT REMAINS JUST N OF THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL SW FLOW CONTINUES BENEATH W TO NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW THE ENTIRE TIME. ALSO KEEP MENTION OF FLOODING CONCERN IN HWO PER REPETITIVE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS...WITH LOWS BECOMING A RATHER MONOTONE FCST...BUT SOME BUST POTENTIAL ON HIGHS DEPENDING UPON TIMING AND DISTRIBUTION OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WARM FRONT BRINGS RAIN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE THEME OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. EURO POINTS TO A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RAMIFICATIONS THAT WOULD LIE OUTSIDE OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WINDOW. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... PERIODS OF IFR FOG UNDER LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CRW...BKW AND VICINITY AREAS FOR AT LEAST 22Z. RADAR IMAGES SHOW THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVERHEAD WITH PCPN TO THE EAST THROUGH SOUTH. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST...EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS LATER THIS EVENING TAKING MOST OF THE PCPN AWAY FROM THE AREA. OVERNIGHT...LAV GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SITES...INCLUDING CRW...BKW...AND HTS. ONLY SITES ACROSS THE SOUTH RECORDED PCPN TODAY. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ABOUT 5 KNOTS AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS SEEN ON DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...IFR CONDITIONS SOUNDS REASONABLE AT MOST PLACES TONIGHT. IT WILL BE POST RAINFALL FOG...INSTEAD OF RADIATIONAL FOG. MODELS SUGGEST PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN LOW STRATUS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING EKN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 00Z MAY DEPEND ON SKY COVER. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H L L L M H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H M M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H L AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN POST RAIN STRATUS AND FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SUBSEQUENT MORNINGS...AND IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005-006- 013>015-024>027-033>038. OH...NONE. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ102-103- 105. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50 NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...ARJ

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