Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 211029 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 629 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure in control with dry and stable air. Getter hotter. Weak disturbances could drop southeast around ridge Friday night and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 615 AM update. No significant changes. Previous discussion... This period will be very similar to yesterday as high pressure dominates...with early morning river valley fog followed by abundant sunshine. With summer sunshine continuing to modify our airmass...we look for warmer temperatures today...with highs topping the 90 degree mark at many locations. However...the airmass will still be relatively dry so that humidities will not yet be excessive. The next weather disturbance coming down from the northwest will mainly affect our area just after this period...with only an increase in clouds later tonight as moisture increases. Thus...tonight will be a bit milder with less fog. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... No major changes to the short term forecast. Above normal temperatures and increasing humidity throughout the period as high pressure strengthens across the region. Still looking at the possibility of needing heat advisories during the period for much of the lowlands...particularly this weekend. Kept a mention in the HWO. Most of the period will remain dry...however...occasional disturbances moving southeast through the region will trigger showers and thunderstorms at times. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The heat will continue thru Monday with this weekend serving as the apex as the upper level ridge axis plagues the central parts of the country...keeping the extreme heat at bay thankfully. Still...highs in the low to mid 90s with dewpoints in the lower 70s will create heat index values likely eclipsing the 100 degree mark Saturday and Sunday. Will keep the mention of potential heat advisories in the current HWO. A caveat in realizing such thresholds will depend on areal coverage of any convection. A moisture axis from the upper level wave that comes thru Friday night may linger on Saturday as the ridge axis makes subtle changes. This may provide the lift for aftn convection once any mid level cap is broken. Our far NE zones may stay capped to keep the day dry. Another upper level wave will help to flatten the ridge some on Sunday and especially early next week with increased threat for shra/tsra long about Monday. The associated weak surface front will meander thru the area into midweek with a daily shra/tsra threat. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 12z Thursday thru 12Z Friday... Very similar conditions to previous 24 hours. High pressure dominates with dry conditions this period...with near calm winds by night and light and variable winds by day. MVFR/IFR river valley fog til 13z this morning...VFR sct 3500-5000 feet AGL this afternoon...otherwise VFR mostly clear. Specifically for major airports...IFR fog at CRW EKN HTS PKB 12Z- 13Z. Mid-High clouds begin to increase in the north after 06z tonight. Much less river valley fog tonight...generally MVFR to patchy IFR fog 09Z-12Z in the more protected river valleys...including CRW and EKN. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M L M H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... No widespread IFR expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/SL NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...JMV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.