Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 191019 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 519 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... RAGGED DECK OF STRATCU AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN WV...AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN OH. BUT THE CLOUD DECK IS THICKER OVER THE FAR NORTH WHERE A WEAK S/W AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA AND THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE. SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND SOME DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL ALLOW MORE WIDESPREAD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...AND ANY LINGERING FLURRIES IN KEKN AREA TO COME TO AN END. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... TREND CONT WITH SUPPRESSION OF SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY. HAVE TIGHTENED UP THE POP GRADIENT SIGNIFICANTLY...CONFINING POPS TO SW VA AND SE WV...WHERE HIGH POPS WERE MAINTAINED ACROSS SW VA SATURDAY MORNING. THIS STREAKING BAND OF WHAT SHOULD BE MAINLY -SN...WILL QUICKLY SCOOT OFF TO THE E BY MIDDAY WITH JUST SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THOSE LOCATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. TOUGH TO FIGURE OUT THE CLOUD COVER WITH VARYING HEIGHTS TO BASES ANTICIPATED FOR THE REGION. SUSPECT QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS LINGERING ESPECIALLY ACROSS S ZONES WITH BEST CHANCE OF AT LEAST BECOMING BKN N OF I64 CORRIDOR. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FLOW BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MIXING THE STRATUS OUT THOUGH. INHERITED TEMPS CLOSE TO NEW GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE TWEAKING. S/W RIDGING WORKS IN ON SUNDAY AS WAA SLOWLY BEGINS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER AROUND TO SE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP IN ERADICATING ANY LINGERING STRATUS ALTHOUGH FLOW IS RATHER WEAK. WILL ALSO HAVE SOME WAA FROM THE S TO HELP. UNFORTUNATELY...QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS WILL BE STREAKING IN FROM THE W IN THE AFTERNOON...TO FILTER WHAT SUNSHINE WE MANAGE TO GET. INHERITED TEMPS CLOSE TO NEW GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE TWEAKING. CIRRUS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING ON E SLOPES SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK. WILL BE WATCHING FOR UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE OUT OF THE BASE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS. SUSPECT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG SE COAST AS THIS UPPER WAVE TRACKS THRU TN VALLEY INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. FEEL BULK OF HVY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL REMAIN E OF THE CWA...CLIPPING MOUNTAIN ZONES MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHERE HIGH POPS WERE CODED UP WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER MAXIMA OVER SE OH. THINK STRENGTHENING DOWNSLOPING SE FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES LOW ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THERE WILL BE A CAD EVENT TO CONTEND WITH AS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER NEW ENGLAND...ALBEIT WEAK. THIS CAD MAY BE STRENGTHENED INITIALLY AS DRY LYR AROUND H85 MOISTENS UP MONDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT FELT THE COOLER NAM WAS THE WAY TO GO ACROSS OUR CAD LOCATIONS...IE E SLOPES AND GREENBRIER VALLEY. WETBULBING PROBABLY WOULD SUPPORT A BRIEF BURST OF SN ON THE LEADING EDGE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO FZRA AS WAA ALOFT OVERWHELMS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE AN INCH OF SN BEFORE THIS TRANSITION WITH SOME ICING TO WORRY ABOUT THEREAFTER...UNTIL MIDDAY. WILL INSERT A MENTION IN HWO FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE. MOST OF THE PRECIP BECOMES CONFINED TO DEPARTING SURFACE LOW OFF THE E COAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW -SHRA EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS SE OH. TRIED TO CODE UP SOME WARMER TEMPS E OF I79 CORRIDOR TO W SLOPES AIDED BY SOME DOWNSLOPING...WHERE SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. CAD LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S HOWEVER. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MAINLY AN MVFR CLOUD DECK IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH CIGS TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SFC GRADIENTS IN PLACE WITH ONLY A LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST PUFF. EXPECT SOME RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS BL DECOUPLES AND MIXING HEIGHTS DROP. DO NOT EXPECT CLOUD COVERAGE TO BE NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS...AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE SCOURED OUT SOME. LATE IN THE PERIOD...BRINGING IN MID LEVEL DECK AS SOUTHERN STREAM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING TRANSITION TO VFR TODAY AND REFORMATION OF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BEING IFR TO MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY WITH A WINTRY MIX. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/30 NEAR TERM...KMC SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...KMC

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