Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 290030 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 826 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Moist southeast flow will raise shower chance Sunday in the mountains. Upper level ridge rebuilds next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Based on current radar trends and meso model trends...will raise pops in northeastern West Virginia this evening. && .SHORT TERM /2 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Afternoon heating, precipitable water around 1.25 and some buoyancy will keep low chance pops sunday night. Although low level moisture decreases some, there will be enough instability and moisture to keep isolated showers or storms on Monday. Meanwhile, a cold front approaches from the west bringing better chance for showers or storms. The GFS and ECMWF show decreasing QPF Sunday night and early Monday. While the GFS show afternoon convection, the ECMWF keeps light showers for the whole day Monday. Went with a compromise between these two models coding chance PoPs. Models are in agreement bringing dry conditions Tuesday and Wednesday with mostly clear skies. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Another cold front approaches from the west Thursday can be enhanced by afternoon heating and associated convection. The area will remain under the warm sector of the next low/cold front system Thursday and Friday. Increase PoPs higher than 50 percent and likely PoPs over elevations of 3000 feet and higher. A tropical storm could become sub tropical as it exit the mid Atlantic states northeast over the off shore waters. The general track northwestward to the South Carolina coast this weekend...and then just sits there through early next the supporting upper trough is sheared north and northeast thru the Mid Atlantic states on Sunday. This shearing out of the upper trough on Sunday is caused by the current Plains upper low opening up and moving east across the Great Lakes. This second system is strong enough to drive a weak front across the area Sunday night and Monday morning. Went with a combination of the super blend and the all blend guidance for temperatures through the period. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Expect VFR conditions this evening outside of a couple of showers. Some fog may form in protected mountain valleys late tonight...but confidence is not high due to higher clouds moving in later tonight. Moisture from the tropical system along the east coast will skirt eastern portions of the area on Sunday. All area could see some showers and/or thunderstorms. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and coverage of fog late tonight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 05/29/16 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z MONDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...RPY is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.