Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KRLX 302319
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
719 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016
An upper level trof will keep the weather unsettled into early
next week. Upper level ridging may bring a warmer, quieter
interlude during the middle of next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...
Mainly looking at isolated shra/tsra waning this evening with
loss of heating. Expect some patchy dense river valley fog to
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
Upper level trough will continue to rotate through the region
through Sunday. This will keep the chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast through the rest of the afternoon
and evening hours tonight. Areas of low clouds and fog will
develop over much of the area tonight...especially where rain has
fallen. Fog and low stratus will be slow to lift...but most areas
should see scattered clouds by mid to late morning. Warm and
humid weather continues tomorrow with a chance for scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models suggest a cold front will push southeast Sunday night into
Monday. Front is quite weak and it is tough to determine whether the
front pushes south of the area or dissipates across the south.
NAM then shows an upper level wave and an associated surface low
will move across the area late Monday night and Tuesday. None of
the other models, including the latest SREF, have these features.
Because of this, I leaned away from using the NAM for this period.
Current thinking is that front will push southeast of area with
storm chances ending from the northwest Sunday night and Monday.
High pressure should result in dry weather on Tuesday.
Latest temperature guidance was close to previous forecast. So only
tweaks made to both high and low temperatures.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The period will start out with High Pressure and dry weather. The
area of High Pressure will push east with southerly winds starting
to increase low-level moisture Wednesday. The increasing moisture
should combine with disturbances in the northwest upper flow to
result in increasing chances for showers and storms.
Models have one disturbance pushing southeast Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Will go with showers and thunderstorms being most
numerous during the afternoon and evening hours Wednesday and
Thursday. There may be other weak disturbances that the models are
not picking up yet. So could also be some storms during the
A cold front will approach from the northwest late Friday before
pushing into the area on Saturday. WPC indicates the front should
push across the area late Saturday. This feature should result in
higher chances of showers and storms for Friday and Saturday.
Currently have high chance pops for Saturday. However would not be
surprised to see likely pops in the forecast as the time
WPC temperatures look good and were generally used.
.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper level trof will continue to rotate through the area through
tonight. Isolated shra/tsra will wane this evening by and large. MVFR/IFR/LIFR
fog to form as the evening progesses...Mainly in areas where rain
Drier air tries to work its way in for Sunday...but plenty of low
level moisture will keep fog and stratus around til mid morning.
Isolated convection in the afternoon.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog and low cloud formation for
overnight tonight into Sunday morning depends upon higher clouds
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M L L L L H M M L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M L L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M L L L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M L L L L L H M M
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions in low clouds and/or fog during the overnight into
the morning hours each day, and briefly in showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon and evening, but mainly Monday, which
would in turn make Tuesday morning a better candidate for fog and