Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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156 FXUS61 KRLX 201854 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 154 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Mild weather this weekend and then strong cold front crosses late Monday. This will bring widespread rainfall to the region. Cooler behind the front, becoming warm again next week under high pressure.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 145 PM Saturday... High pressure continues to provide mostly clear skies mainly across the northern half of our cwa tonight. However, clouds will be in the increase from south to north as a warm front pushes north this evening. Southwest flow will continue well ahead of an approaching cold front. This southwest flow will bring moisture and warm temperatures to the region. A warm front is expected to lift north this afternoon and evening to bring low chance for drizzle, sprinkles, or light rain. This pcpn activity will move north overnight as well as the warm up. Therefore, kept a non-diurnal temperature trend tonight into Sunday morning. Used the blend of all models for temperatures through the period.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 125 PM Saturday... Looking at well above average temperatures to start the period as we sit well within the warm sector or low pressure tracking northeast into the Great Lakes. This system will drag a cold front through the region on Monday. Strong SW return flow will send temperatures soaring and carry some decent moisture into the area. Models agree that front moves through fairly quickly late Monday night, and not expecting a ton of QPF out of it, even with slightly anomalous PWATs for the area. Still looking at a widespread half inch rainfall, with possibly some higher amounts nearing an inch in the the mountains. Colder air rushes in behind the front, but with only some lingering low level moisture, not expecting much in the way of snow. Even in the mountains, only about a half inch of snow accumulation is expected. Orographic accent will be limited with flow generally staying WSW to straight westerly behind the front, so this will help keep accumulations light. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 225 PM Saturday... Model guidance is in fairly good agreement as we head later in the week. May see a few snow showers in the mountains Wednesday into Thursday in NW flow and upper trough swinging through. However, after that, the trend has been for another warm up as we close out the period. Large high pressure and upper ridge build over the area at the end of the period and beyond with return flow over the Ohio Valley. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1230 PM Saturday... Morning MVFR stratus have lifted leading to mostly sunny skies. Satellite and sfc obs suggest there is broken thin cirrus across the area. In addition, a mid level deck is evident in satellite images to affect southern WV including BKW through this evening. High pressure will continue in control with widespread VFR conditions through the period. A warm front will lift across the area overnight tonight. Although light drizzle or sprinkles can occur with this feature, confidence is low, and were not included in TAF. Flow will continue out of the S to SW through the TAF period. A cold front will approach Monday capable to produce IFR/MVFR conditions and gusty winds along the heaviest rain showers. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need to add IFR visibilities if drizzle or rain materialize tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H L L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M H M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H M M M H M AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR possible Monday/Monday night under rain showers. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...ARJ

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