Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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125 FXUS61 KRLX 302319 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 719 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trof will keep the weather unsettled into early next week. Upper level ridging may bring a warmer, quieter interlude during the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 700 PM UPDATE... Mainly looking at isolated shra/tsra waning this evening with loss of heating. Expect some patchy dense river valley fog to develop. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... Upper level trough will continue to rotate through the region through Sunday. This will keep the chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the rest of the afternoon and evening hours tonight. Areas of low clouds and fog will develop over much of the area tonight...especially where rain has fallen. Fog and low stratus will be slow to lift...but most areas should see scattered clouds by mid to late morning. Warm and humid weather continues tomorrow with a chance for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Models suggest a cold front will push southeast Sunday night into Monday. Front is quite weak and it is tough to determine whether the front pushes south of the area or dissipates across the south. NAM then shows an upper level wave and an associated surface low will move across the area late Monday night and Tuesday. None of the other models, including the latest SREF, have these features. Because of this, I leaned away from using the NAM for this period. Current thinking is that front will push southeast of area with storm chances ending from the northwest Sunday night and Monday. High pressure should result in dry weather on Tuesday. Latest temperature guidance was close to previous forecast. So only tweaks made to both high and low temperatures. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The period will start out with High Pressure and dry weather. The area of High Pressure will push east with southerly winds starting to increase low-level moisture Wednesday. The increasing moisture should combine with disturbances in the northwest upper flow to result in increasing chances for showers and storms. Models have one disturbance pushing southeast Wednesday into Wednesday night. Will go with showers and thunderstorms being most numerous during the afternoon and evening hours Wednesday and Thursday. There may be other weak disturbances that the models are not picking up yet. So could also be some storms during the overnight periods. A cold front will approach from the northwest late Friday before pushing into the area on Saturday. WPC indicates the front should push across the area late Saturday. This feature should result in higher chances of showers and storms for Friday and Saturday. Currently have high chance pops for Saturday. However would not be surprised to see likely pops in the forecast as the time approaches. WPC temperatures look good and were generally used. && .AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Upper level trof will continue to rotate through the area through tonight. Isolated shra/tsra will wane this evening by and large. MVFR/IFR/LIFR fog to form as the evening progesses...Mainly in areas where rain has fallen. Drier air tries to work its way in for Sunday...but plenty of low level moisture will keep fog and stratus around til mid morning. Isolated convection in the afternoon. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog and low cloud formation for overnight tonight into Sunday morning depends upon higher clouds and precipitation. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M L L L L H M M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M L L L L L H M M AFTER 00Z MONDAY... IFR conditions in low clouds and/or fog during the overnight into the morning hours each day, and briefly in showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening, but mainly Monday, which would in turn make Tuesday morning a better candidate for fog and stratus. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/JS NEAR TERM...JS/30 SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...30

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