Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 050801 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 401 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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OLD W TO E ORIENTED FRONT STILL ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SWD THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AREA TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SAILS SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL YIELD A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY COMPARED WITH TUE EVEN WITH A BREAK IN THE HIGH CLOUDS ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT. KEPT THE SMALL CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION FIRING UP OVER SW VA...NEAR AND S OF THE FRONT...THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR THE SRN EDGE OF WV TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW APPROACH FROM THE W. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS SW VIRGINIA AND ALONG THE TUG FORK TONIGHT,,,THE RAIN POSSIBLY GETTING AS FAR N AS HTS-CRW BY DAWN THU. ALSO MAINTAINED THE LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER TONIGHT OVER SW VIRGINIA...AGAIN ALONG/S OF THE FRONT. BLENDED IN THE MET AND MAV FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER HIGHS TODAY. LOWS TONIGHT REFLECTED A BIAS CORRECTED BLEND AND WERE ACCEPTED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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MODELS STILL HAVING A HARD TIME FIGURING OUT WHAT TO DO WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. NAM AND GFS STARTING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUN/PATH...KEEPING SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN MOST ZONES MOSTLY DRY DURING THE PERIOD. WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MORE NORTHERLY PATH WITH THE LOW...THUS KEEPING DECENT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH/SOUTHEAST OHIO. DECIDED TO DO SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE...KEPT LIKELY/DEF POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...AND CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE PERIOD. STILL NOT SURE THAT ANY SORT OF WATER HEADLINES ARE WARRANTED...AS SYSTEM/STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG WELL...AND WITH RECENT DRY CONDITIONS...NOT THAT WORRIED AT THIS POINT. ALSO...WITH THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE SYSTEM...NOT SURE ANY HEADLINES ARE WARRANTED YET EITHER. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD INCH OR MORE QPF MOST LOCATIONS...WITH 1.5 OR MORE POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS DURING THE PERIOD.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS WEEKEND AMID A RELATIVELY WNW FLOW ALOFT. PATTERN TURNS MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER REAMPLIFICATION OF MEAN TROF. GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPS. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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PERSISTENCE AND HIGH CLOUD SPELLS NOTHING MORE THAN MVFR RIVER VALLEY MIST OVERNIGHT. VFR STRATOCU AND CIRRUS WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SKIRTS BY N OF THE AREA...AND AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W. CLOUDS WILL START TO LOWER AND THICKEN WED NT AS THAT SYSTEM...WITH ITS ATTENDANT SFC LOW CENTER... APPROACH. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT VALLEY FOG FROM STARTING TO FORM SAVE FOR PERHAPS EKN /TYGART VALLEY/. LIGHT SW SFC FLOW S OF AN OLD FRONT THAT STALLED JUST N OF HTS- CRW WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW THIS PERIOD OUTSIDE OF LIGHT W FOR A TIME TUE AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT W TO NW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FORMATION OF VALLEY FOG...AND MVFR STRATOCU AT BKW OVERNIGHT...MAY VARY FROM FCST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 08/05/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H M L L L L M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M L L L L H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H M L L M M M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...JSH/TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JS/30 AVIATION...JSH/TRM

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