Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251738 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 138 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will provide dry weather through at least Wednesday. A Cold front may produce some storms late in the work week. High pressure builds back in for the weekend with improving weather expected. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 925 AM Tuesday... No changes to the forecast this morning. As of 230am Tuesday... The cold frontal boundary continues to push southeastward and will progress far enough south to allow high pressure to build down from the Great Lakes. This will allow us to enjoy the first of what should be back-to-back days that remain dry, along with cooler temperatures and a drier airmass. The only issue will be early morning localized patchy fog and low clouds that linger for a few hours past daybreak. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Tuesday... Cooler and drier high pressure will be in control on Wednesday before moving east Wednesday night and Thursday. As it does, SW flow will increase, as will the head and humidity. Low pressure approaches with its trailing cold front Thursday night into Friday. Scattered showers and storms will increase Thursday well ahead of the front, especially over southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia. Showers and storms will become more widespread Thursday night and Friday morning as the cold front slides southeast through the area. Behind the front, an unusually cooler and drier Canadian airmass moves in during Friday with showers and storms ending from northwest to southeast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 230 AM Monday... Long range models in good agreement with cooler and drier high pressure building into the region Friday night through this weekend. Temperatures should moderate each day under abundant sunshine. Drier air with this high pressure will keep humidity levels tolerable. By Monday, the high shifts east with the heat and humidity beginning to increase. && .AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 120 PM Tuesday... Expect the MVFR ceilings in the northern terminals to eventually lift this afternoon and become a SCT VFR cumulus deck, with all other terminals VFR through early tonight. Radiation fog to commence after 05Z tonight, and all sites expected to reach LIFR conditions with the exception of BKW. Ceilings lift after 12Z Wednesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog tonight could vary by an hour or two. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... Brief periods of IFR conditions long thunderstorms likely Thursday into Friday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/99 NEAR TERM...26/99 SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...26

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