Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 311040 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 640 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... NOW HAVE EVIDENCE OF THE STRATUS DECK SHOWING UP OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FEW/SCT SHOWING UP IN THE OBS BELOW 2500FT. REWORKED THE POPS GIVEN THE RADAR TRENDS...AND CONTINUE WITH THE QUIETER PERIOD BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS ARE IN THE 0.2 TO 0.3 INCH RANGE IN THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON/18Z TIME FRAME TODAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON THE HRRR MODEL GIVEN THAT IT HAD INITIALIZED VERY WELL. TYPICALLY LIKE THE OUTPUT OF THIS MODEL WHEN THAT HAPPENS. ALSO...SINCE THE NAM MATCHED UP FAIRLY WELL...DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS PROGS PROVED VALUABLE IN THE PATTERN OF THE POP CONSTRUCTION THIS MORNING. THIS HELPED TO ADD SOME DEFINITION TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...PARTICULARLY OVER THE LOWLANDS SOUTH/EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MAY STILL BE HANGING ON IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z MONDAY. TEMPERATURES COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FOR TODAY IN THE PERIODIC RAIN. MAY NOT COME OUT OF THE 70S OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO. SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA COULD END UP WARMER THAN THE OHIO RIVER SITES. THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HANDS DOWN BETTER THAN THE OTHERS AND LEANED ON THIS...BUT ALWAYS A LITTLE HESITANT IN A DIFFERENT ATMOSPHERE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS AGREE OUR AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ON MONDAY. WHILE DYNAMICS WILL BE AT A MINIMUM...A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FOR A THREAT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS MONDAY...AND MORE SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY PRECIP FREE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT AFFECT US TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SO HIGH POPS PROGRESSING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT ARE IN ORDER. WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COOL FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...AND GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS RISE MODESTLY BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT MODELS STILL INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR A SHOWER OR TWO TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE 80S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO HEAT WAVES OR ABNORMALLY COOL SPELLS IN SIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS TUE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING SAT NIGHT...WITH SUBSEQUENT HIGHER POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. IN BETWEEN...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH DAY. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NOW SEEING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE EXPECTED MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK BACK IN OHIO TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. WILL BE WATCHING UNI AND THEN THE RIVER TERMINALS OF PKB AND HTS TO DO THE SAME AND CARRY THIS IN THE TAFS THIS MORNING. AFTER A LULL IN THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING...EXPECT IT TO PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON. CARRYING VCTS/CB IN THE TAFS RIGHT NOW AS THE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PASS THROUGH THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR THE CONVECTION IS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THUNDER CHANCES ARE RELEGATED TO THESE AREAS HOWEVER. EXPECT AND EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK TO SET UP THIS EVENING AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD. AS THOSE CEILINGS COME DOWN...FEEL THE VISIBILITIES CAN COME DOWN AS WELL WITH THE RECENT RAIN. NO LIFR FOG DUE TO LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF TSRA IS IN QUESTION. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H M M M H M HTS CONSISTENCY L L L M H M M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M M H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M M H H H M M M AFTER 12Z MONDAY... IFR IN DENSE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK. IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...26

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