Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 222329 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 729 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure gives way to a low pressure system moving south and east Tuesday/Tuesday night. Upper level low brings chances of showers Wednesday into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 725 PM Monday... No significant changes necessary. Previous forecast on track. As of 205 PM Monday... No significant changes to the forecast this afternoon. Did introduce slightly more cloud cover in the sky grids to account for lingering clouds and streaming cirrus. Otherwise, forecast is on track. As of 1050 AM Monday... Radar still showing some lingering showers in the mountains with other locations rain free. Visible satellite imagery highlights clearing north of the Ohio River. Expect rain to taper off in the next few hours and clearing to slowly overspread the area as a surface high slowly slides northeast across Ohio. Until the pressure gradient relaxes more, could see occasional gusts on the order of 10 to 15 kts. Otherwise, temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s this afternoon. Moisture returns tomorrow ahead of a wave rounding the base of an upper trof to our west. While there are questions as to how far the moisture will reach, will carry PoPs south of the Ohio River with the best chance of showers in the mountains.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 324 PM Monday... A weak low pressure system will move off to the east Tuesday night as a slow moving upper level low pressure system approaches from the west. This upper level system will bring a cold front through the area Wednesday afternoon and evening, providing a band of showers and thunderstorms. The front will be followed by the upper low on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 324 PM Monday... Showers should end on Friday as the upper level low pulls off. The dry weather will be brief however, as the models are showing a warm front for Saturday. For Sunday and Monday, some considerable differences exist in the models, so confidence in the forecast declines. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 725 PM Monday... Lots of uncertainty on the aviation forecast, namely tonight and the concern as to whether or not fog will form. There is quite a bit of cloud cover streaming into the area out ahead of a low pressure system across the south, and this may hinder fog development. Went ahead and kept period of IFR tonight in KEKN, but elsewhere limited fog development/potential to MVFR at worst. -shra will form across the region on Tuesday, particularly after 12Z. Expect brief MVFR conditions in -shra. In addition, with a southeasterly flow developing across the region, will see the development of widespread MVFR ceilings across eastern slopes of the higher terrain after 16Z, affecting site KBKW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low particularly concerning fog potential tonight. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and density of fog may vary overnight. Timing on lower cigs and SHRA may also vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... Increasing chance of MVFR to IFR in SHRA through mid week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/MPK/DTC NEAR TERM...SL/DTC SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...SL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.