Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 191836 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 236 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK SLUGGISH INTO TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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WOW...WHAT A YUCKY DAY FOR THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER...MORE REMINISCENT OF FALL. IN FACT MANY AREAS BARELY ABLE TO SURPASS THE 70 DEGREE MARK TODAY IN THE LOWLANDS. ALL TIME RECORD LOW MAXES FOR MONTH OF JULY APPEAR SAFE AT ALL SITES. S/W TROF AND EMBEDDED VORT MAX WILL SLIDE OFF TO NE AND WEAKEN INTO THIS EVENING...TAKING MUCH OF THE STEADIER RAINS WITH IT. LEFT SOME SCHC POPS IN OVERNIGHT FOR AN ISOLATED SHRA WITH BEST SHOT ACROSS S WV. NOT SURE HOW MUCH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MATERIALIZE OVERNIGHT. OF COURSE THAT WILL BE ONE OF THE MAIN FACTORS IN HOW WIDESPREAD DENSE FG COMBINED WITH MAGNITUDE OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL SE FLOW. SREF PROBS AND NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW STRATUS AND FG WOULD BE CONFINED MORE INTO C OH AND C KY WHILE LAMP GUIDANCE SLAMS AREA IN THE DIRT OVERNIGHT. WILL PLAY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE WITH PREV FORECAST GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE AND KEEP DENSE FG OVER SE OH. TOMORROW...COLUMN IS DRY ABV H85 AND WITH OVERALL FLOW BECOMING RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...WILL CONT WITH SCHC POPS THRU THE DAY WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WHERE SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SHRA TO GENERATE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THUNDER W OF THE MOUNTAINS THOUGH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... STILL UNDER UPPER TROUGH WITH SOME 500 MB VORT IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW...BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE PRECIP AT BAY. TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL RANGES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MAIN CONCERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS FOR MINOR CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING...A MORE ROBUST FRONT ARRIVES AS IT TRAILS OFF OF A RATHER DEEP SYNOPTIC LOW THAT SWINGS OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF A DECAYING MCS...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. INSTABILITY IS GOOD IN FRONT OF IT WITH SOME MINOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH NW FLOW AND A DECENT VORT MAX. BULK SHEAR IN THE 30 KT RANGE LOOKS GOOD TOO. ACCORDINGLY...BOOSTED POPS AND SPED UP TIMING A TAD. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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STEADY RAINS WILL SHIFT NE OF THE MOUNTAINS BY 21Z...WITH JUST ISOLATED SHRA THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST TONIGHT REGARDING DENSE FG. CLOUDS MAY BE TOUGH TO BREAK...AND COMBINED WITH A RESIDUAL SE LOW LEVEL FLOW...FELT A MIDDLE GROUND APPROACH NECESSARY AT THIS POINT. THIS ESSENTIALLY KEEPS IFR FG CONFINED TO KPKB AND THE LOW STRATUS ACROSS SE OH. ISOLATED SHRA THREAT CONTINUES FOR SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFTER ANY FG/STRATUS BURNS OFF. HAVE CIGS IN THE 4 TO 5 THSD FT RANGE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DENSE FG MAY MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED SHOULD BREAKS IN CLOUDS MATERIALIZE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30/JW NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...30

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