Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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895 FXUS61 KRLX 200013 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 813 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak upper level impulse brings some showers, perhaps an afternoon thunderstorm, through Wednesday. Weak high pressure builds late week through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 740 PM Tuesday... Updated to increase pops for a few hours this evening over northeast KY and southeast OH per radar trends. These should dissipate for the most part later this evening as the airmass stabilizes. As of 220 PM Tuesday... A weak upper level short wave trough moving across the area this afternoon and Wednesday, may end the broken record of overnight and early morning dense valley fog, although still have some fog in the forecast. The short wave, and the tail end of a warm front lifting through the Great Lakes, was producing a patchwork of showers in a band from Ohio southward, through eastern KY and central TN. There were also thunderstorms included in the band farther south, in KY and TN, on account of less cloud, and hence more heating, ahead of it there. That trend will continue eastward, until sundown reduces the thunder chance. Continue to carry a slight chance for showers tonight as the short wave trough moves over the area, with coverage increasing a bit Wednesday afternoon per diurnal heating, and the feature moving east. However, greater instability on some clearing west, and higher dew points there, will tend to equalize the chance for thunder west versus east. Temperatures and dew points looked good in light of the latest guidance, with clouds resulting in not quite as cool a night tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 225 PM Tuesday... Still the possibility of isold showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday as weak impulses traverse the region. Temperatures will continue to run above normal for this time of year, with foggy mornings continuing. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 225 PM Tuesday... Upper ridging will strengthen across the eastern U.S. during the period, with continued hot/above normal temperature conditions. Could be an isolated storm or shower over the higher terrain at times, but overall, period looks to be relatively dry, with light surface winds, and a continuation of foggy conditions in river valleys. A cold front will arrive by the middle of next week/end of the extended period, providing a greater chance for showers and storms. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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00Z Wednesday thru 00Z THursday... As of 745 PM Tuesday... Til 03Z... Brief uptick in convection over northeast KY at 23Z should wane quickly by 03Z as the airmass stabilizes with loss of heating. Elsewhere, VFR SCT-BKN clouds AOA 4000 feet AGL. After 03Z... A weak upper level disturbance may break up the early morning river and valley fog somewhat, as it brings altocu and some stratocu, along with an isolated shower late tonight. Have MVFR river and valley fog forecast after 06Z affecting the major TAF sites except BKW, and IFR in fog after 09Z except BKW. The chance for showers late tonight is too small for a specific TAF mention this period. Showers and storms increase a bit across the area on Wednesday, especially in the afternoon with heating under the very slow moving upper disturbance. Light and variable to calm flow will become light west aloft during Wednesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of fog may vary overnight into Wednesday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 09/20/17 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H L L M M M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L L M M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H L L M M M M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M L L M AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... IFR in valley fog possible each morning through the weekend.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/JMV NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JMV

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