Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251930 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 330 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS DRAGS A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. MUCH COLDER AIR DOMINATES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... WEAK COLD FRONT OUT TO THE W WASHING OUT AS EXPECTED WHILE...WITH THE HELP OF AFTERNOON MIXING...THE WARM FRONT HAS SURGED NWD...AND ESSENTIALLY MADE IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NEWD THROUGH ERN CANADA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE CENTER FORMING IN TX IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH...WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD TONIGHT...REACHING ALL THE WAY INTO ERN OHIO BY DAWN THU...AND THEN OFF TO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE WASHED OUT FRONT WILL REFORM AS A WARM FRONT IN ERN OHIO AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW CENTER TONIGHT...LIKELY WITHIN THE CWA. AFTER A MAINLY DRY AND MILD EVENING...HAVE RAIN MOVING NEWD INTO THE SWRN PORTION OF THE CWA AND / OR BREAKING OUT ALONG AND NW OF THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT THERE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE FRONT MOVING LITTLE OVERNIGHT...RAIN BY DAWN THU IS MOST LIKELY TO BE IN OHIO. WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THERE BY THEN...THE FRONT WILL PUSH QUICKLY EWD THROUGH THE AREA THU ONCE THE LOW SCOOTS ON BY IN THE MORNING. MODELS DEPICT THIS AS REMAINING MAINLY AN ANAFRONT EVENT EVEN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THU...SO THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER IS LIMITED...LET ALONE THE STRENGTH OF ANY STORMS. DO STILL HAVE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING IN A SMALL AREA NEAR THE LOW CENTER...AND THEN EXPANDING IN A BAND ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY THU. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER ENDS W TO E THU AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CROSSES...THE WIND SHIFTS...AND TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FALL. THE RAIN DOES NOT BEGIN TO LET UP UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY ALONG AND W OF THE OHIO RIVER. EMPLOYED MAINLY THE RAW NAM AND MET FOR LOWS THIS MILD NT...AND 3-HRLY TEMPERATURES IN THE SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE CROSSING THE AREA THU. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST. HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE AWHILE TO BUILD IN AS UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LAG BEHIND THE SURFACE FEATURE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF APPROACHES. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD THEN DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID-DAY ON SATURDAY. SINCE UPPER TROF DOES NOT ACTUALLY PUSH EAST UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MAY NOT HAVE HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS LONG ENOUGH. BUT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EXAMINE THAT. WITH COLDER SIR FILTERING IN THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT PRECIP WILL MIX WITH...OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS ALL...BUT THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD FRO THIS TIME OF YEAR. BUT EXPECT THE LOW-LEVEL TEMPS TO WARM ENOUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,,,CAUSING THE PRECIP TO CHANGE BACK TO RAIN. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE EXTENDED PERIODS. SURFACE HIGH AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MANY PLACES DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. TRIED TO HIT THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS HARD WHILE KEEPING AREAS ALONG BIG RIVERS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. A NICE REBOUND WILL BE REALIZED ON SUNDAY AMID WAA ALOFT ON STRENGTHENING SW FLOW. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT WEDNESDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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WARM FRONT HAS BLOWN THROUGH THE AREA...AND MIXING IN ITS WAKE HAS MAXIMIZED WIND GUST POTENTIAL OF 25 TO 35 KTS. WITH THE FRONT HAVING EVEN MADE IT TO THE E OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE MVFR STRATOCU E OF THE FRONT / MOUNTAINS NEVER DID MAKE IT BACK INTO BKW. A COLD FRONT WASHED OUT W OF THE OHIO RIVER TODAY...BUT THIS FRONT WILL REDEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT THERE TONIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHES FROM THE DEEP S. AS THE LOW CROSSES THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THU MORNING...THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO RIVER. AS CODED NOW...THIS BRINGS MVFR RAIN TO PKB JUST NW OF THE WHAT BY THEN WILL BE A COLD FRONT...AND SHOWERS...AND THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...TO HTS JUST SE OF THE FRONT. CIGS WILL LOWER TOWARD 1 KFT TOWARD 18Z THU AT PKB AND W OF THE FRONT IN GENERAL. HELD OFF ON PRECIPITATION FOR SITES FARTHER E UNTIL AFTER THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR E OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE GUSTY SW SFC FLOW THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHES AND BACKS TO THE S TONIGHT...AND THEN BECOMES GUSTY FROM THE S TO SW THU MORNING. HAVE A WIND SHIFT TO THE W AT PKB NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...REFLECTING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TONIGHT BECOMES MODERATE SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT THU...THE WIND SHIFT ALOFT JUST APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER COME 18Z THU. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WIND DIRECTION AND GUSTINESS WILL VARY THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CHANGING CONDITIONS IN THE W LATE IN THE PERIOD MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN CIGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NT...AND ACROSS NRN WV AND DOWN THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THU NT IN MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/TRM/30 NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...TRM

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