Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 271037 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 637 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AND WAFFLES BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH FRIDAY...PROVIDING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 630 AM UPDATE... NO CHANGES THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... EXPECT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO STALL OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION INTENSITY WANES AND WE TRANSITION TO A MORE STRATIFORM EVENT. FILLING UPPER LOW THAT WAS IN PART RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CORRESPONDING SURFACE SYSTEM...INCLUDING THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA...ACTUALLY DRIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SPC GOING WITH A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IN THE MARGINAL RISK TERRITORY. LOW STRATUS THAT SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE BULK OF THE MORNING AFTER THE CURRENT BATCH OF RAIN EXITS IS A CULPRIT IN THIS CASE. LOW LEVELS FLOWS ARE WEAK...AND INSTABILITY OFF THE SURFACE WILL BE MINIMAL...AND ALMOST NON EXISTENT ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON. NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY. SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WAS IN AN ABNORMALLY DRY STATE BEFORE THE CONVECTION EARLIER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING NORTH TODAY...PRODUCING CONSISTENT RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO RE EVALUATE THIS AFTER TODAY...HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE RETURN OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... STILL DEALING WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING DRIER AIR INTRUDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH TIMING OF COLDER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA. GFS AND CANADIAN ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THE WARMEST AIR OVER THE AREA. SREF AND ECMWF ARE IN BETWEEN. PRIME EXAMPLE IS THE MOS GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR HTS. NAM HAS 80 WHILE GFS HAS 67. BIG BUST POTENTIAL. WITH NO CLEAR EVIDENCE ON WHICH WAY TO LEAN... WILL KEEP A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND STARTING OUT DRY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. WITH THAT IN MIND, WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. INTRODUCED POPS FOR SATURDAY FROM SW TO NE WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE LOW FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LOW STRATUS SETTLING IN AT A FEW OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE 15Z TIME FRAME BEFORE IMPROVING. WAVES OF SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO PASS AS WELL...BUT THESE SHOULD CAUSE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18Z...AND WILL SEE A TRANSITION BACK TO A CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS FIRST...AND WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTH AS WELL. NO PREVAILING THUNDER AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS YET...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE IN FUTURE ISSUANCES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF STRATUS LIFTING MAY VARY. CONVECTION TIMING LATER TODAY TO VARY...AND MAY NEED TO ADD TSRA TO PREVAILING. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L M M M M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L M M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M M H H H H H H AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY/MZ/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...26

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