Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 182336 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 736 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low drops southeast tonight to the mid Atlantic coast. Another system Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 730 PM Saturday... Thunderstorms have come to an end, with an area of light rain now moving across the forecast area as the upper level low crosses Lake Erie. Overall, did not make any whole sale changes, but did tweak some to end POPs across the tri-state a couple hours earlier. As of 220 PM Saturday... Cold pool convection showers and storms are easily churning out consistent one half inch hail as the cold front digs into the mountains, aided by fairly efficient heating that got temperatures into the mid 50s. Cold air advection aloft is not far behind, as evidenced by the encroaching low level stratocu in its wake, which will be a persistent feature into the overnight. As the low level flow transitions to the northwest, convection will turn into a modest northwest flow event for snow showers in the higher elevations. Have scaled back the totals for the mountain valleys tonight, thinking the best snowfall will be on the far western slopes. Moisture depth gets a little thin around dawn, and may have to transition to freezing drizzle. End the upslope and clouds with the commencing of warm air advection at 925mb after 18Z Sunday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 PM Saturday... Quiet weather Sunday night and Monday with temps trying to moderate ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will slowly work across the area Monday night and most of Tuesday with a good chance of showers. The showers will tend to wane late Tuesday as the front slips south of the area. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday... The upper level trof will amplify over the region midweek with a impulse rounding the base into the area on Wednesday. Overrunning precip will break out as the day progresses, especially across southern zones. Enough cold air should be in place for some wet snow in the higher elevations. Upper level ridging will build into the region to end the workweek providing for a significant warmup come Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 730 PM Saturday... MVFR ceilings in place to start the TAF period. Expecting some pockets of MVFR visibility in light rain or drizzle as well, but hard to time it out as it will likely be fairly transient. Models have backed off a bit on IFR tonight, but still think there is a good chance of IFR ceilings overnight. Did slow down the timing on it a bit. IFR also possible in snow showers across the mountains, although eventually moisture becomes to thin to support snow and some light freezing drizzle may occur. Conditions will be rather slow to improve on Sunday, but clouds should eventually break up and lift through the afternoon. Winds will be out of the northwest through the TAF period with some gusts of 15-30kts in the mountains. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Categories will fluctuate in rain and snow showers tonight. Timing of ceiling changes may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H L L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M L L M L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY L M L L L L M L L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H L M L M L L AFTER 00Z MONDAY... IFR possible in precipitation Monday night and Tuesday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30/26 NEAR TERM...MZ/26 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...MZ

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