Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 191904 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 204 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WITH COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...PROVIDING A BRIEF SHOT OF RENEWED COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGING PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE SUN...COMBINED WITH SOME GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB MODERATING OUR ARCTIC AIR...WITH TEMPS SLOWLY CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ARRIVE INTO SE OHIO AHEAD OF A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM THAT WILL SLIDE BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH CWA...WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT. ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTING BY. HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...AND THEN SPREADING DOWN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING OF NEW SNOW WITH THIS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MAYBE UP TO AN INCH HIGHER UP. 850MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN CLIMBING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...HOWEVER THEY ARE ABOUT AT THE PEAK NOW...AND THEN WILL BEGIN DROPPING AGAIN THIS EVENING AS THE CLIPPER DRIVES SOME COOLER AIR IN. UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT PRETTY QUICKLY THURSDAY...HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF MOISTURE REMAINING BELOW STRONG INVERSION...SO INCREASED SKY COVER THROUGH THURSDAY...ANTICIPATING A PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS DECK THAT WILL BE HARD TO BREAK UP...ESPECIALLY WHERE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALSO KEPT SOME FLURRIES IN THE WEATHER GRIDS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE COLDER AIR OOZING IN...SQUEEZING OUT SOME FLAKES FROM THE LOW CLOUDS. WENT A TOUCH WARMER BY LEANING TOWARD THE MET TONIGHT...WITH SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THEN WENT JUST A TOUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
DRY WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. STILL LOOKING AT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS...AS MOISTURE FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...COMBINED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO OUR NORTH AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY...AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING TAKES HOLD...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. EXPECTING MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MIDNIGHT SHIFT UPDATE ELECTED TO TWEAK SOME GRIDS IN THE EXTENDED FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY STABLE WITH PATTERN CHANGE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN MAKER SLATED FOR SUNDAY. AS SUCH...FELT CONFIDENT IN GOING MORE DETERMINISTIC WITH SKY/POP GRIDS. THIS KEEPS SATURDAY MAINLY DRY WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHRA IN SE OH. THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUN WITH QUITE THE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES PER WAA AND DOWNSLOPING SE FLOW. HAVE TEMPS SPIKING INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM MEAN TROF AMPLIFICATION. WITH THE FLOW INCREASING...KEPT LOWS UP EXCEPT ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND SOME OF THE LOWLAND HOLLOWS. SUNDAY WILL MARK THE ARRIVAL OF S STREAM SYSTEM AS IT TRIES TO PHASE WITH N BRANCH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. EXPECT A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW TO TRACK WELL W OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH THE TROF GOING NEGATIVE TILT. IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR STRONG WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL BAND AS IT RACES NE THRU THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY DESPITE ALMOST NIL INSTABILITY. BROUGHT POPS DOWN QUICKLY WITH ARRIVAL OF DRY SLOT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS LOOKS TO CROSS 60F OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH WINDS STAYING UP IN THE POST FRONTAL DRY SLOT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RETURN FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH...IN COMBINATION WITH APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL OPEN UP THE FORECAST AREA TO AN INCREASE IN GULF FED MOISTURE ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. EURO AND GFS MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN TIMING THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SET MAINLY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. MADE MINOR CHANGE TO STEP BACK ON POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY BASED ON CURRENT MODEL TRENDS. ALSO INTRODUCED SOME THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY AS ENOUGH DYNAMICS AND MID LEVEL STABILITY AROUND TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE FORECAST. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LONG TERM MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE ATTENDANT BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY ALIGNED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. DUE TO THE SUBTLE UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD....USED USED WPC VALUES WITH A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE...AND EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE S OR SW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM BRUSHES BY TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. STRONG INVERSION ALOFT WILL TRAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN FOR THURSDAY...AND ANTICIPATE MVFR STRATUS DECK HANGING TOUGH THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN TO MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY COULD CAUSE SOME RESTRICTIONS...WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/30 NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...KMC/30 AVIATION...MZ

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.