Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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411 FXUS61 KRLX 291736 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 136 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will sag southward on today and Tuesday...with a stronger front on Wednesday ushering in a cooler end to the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 130 PM Monday... Weak cold front...currently in southeast Ohio...will continue to sag south through the region today into Tuesday. Isold showers and thunderstorms will be possible today...mainly along and south of the boundary...during peak heating hours...with precipitation expected to taper off after sunset. Overnight...drier air will filter in across the north...particularly southeast Ohio area...with muggier air remaining across southern 1/2 to 2/3 of CWA. Fog expected again tonight...mainly across the deeper mountain valleys. Tuesday looks to be dry most places...with the exception of the higher terrain counties during peak afternoon heating hours. Will be hot again...with temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 240 AM Monday... Upper ridge remains in control Tuesday, with another fairly hot day. Although moisture is beginning to drop off. Still enough lingering low level moisture in the mountainous counties to carry some slight chance to chance POPs during the afternoon and evening...tied mainly to the elevated heat source of the ridges. Stronger cold front moves through Wednesday and Wednesday night. Models indicate there is not a whole lot of moisture left with the front, so capped POPs in the chance range expecting a broken line of showers and storms moving from west to east late Wednesday into Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 220 PM Sunday... Much of the weekend to remain dry...and less humid with high pressure in control. However this will change as we approach the start of next southwesterly flow increases out ahead of approaching frontal boundary. With upper ridging in place...left the forecast dry for start of next week...although a pop up shower or storm cant be completely ruled out during daytime heating hours. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 135 PM Monday... Mainly VFR conditions with light surface winds through the period. Isold convection possible...mainly 20Z-00Z...with brief MVFR and IFR conditions possible. Best chance for convection across NE KY...WV...and southwest VA. Any convection will taper off after 00Z...with patchy dense IFR and LIFR fog developing in favored river valleys after 06Z. Any fog will dissipate after 12-13Z for a return of VFR conditions for the remainder of the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Development of convection this afternoon could vary from forecast. Fog development tonight could be more widespread than currently forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms through mid week. Early morning IFR possible in areas of fog into mid week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JB/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...SL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.