Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KRLX 291736
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
136 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016
A weak cold front will sag southward on today and Tuesday...with a
stronger front on Wednesday ushering in a cooler end to the week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Monday...
Weak cold front...currently in southeast Ohio...will continue to
sag south through the region today into Tuesday. Isold showers and
thunderstorms will be possible today...mainly along and south of
the boundary...during peak heating hours...with precipitation
expected to taper off after sunset. Overnight...drier air will
filter in across the north...particularly southeast Ohio
area...with muggier air remaining across southern 1/2 to 2/3 of
CWA. Fog expected again tonight...mainly across the deeper
Tuesday looks to be dry most places...with the exception of the
higher terrain counties during peak afternoon heating hours. Will
be hot again...with temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 240 AM Monday...
Upper ridge remains in control Tuesday, with another fairly hot day.
Although moisture is beginning to drop off. Still enough lingering
low level moisture in the mountainous counties to carry some slight
chance to chance POPs during the afternoon and evening...tied mainly
to the elevated heat source of the ridges. Stronger cold front moves
through Wednesday and Wednesday night. Models indicate there is not
a whole lot of moisture left with the front, so capped POPs in the
chance range expecting a broken line of showers and storms
moving from west to east late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 PM Sunday...
Much of the weekend to remain dry...and less humid with high
pressure in control. However this will change as we approach the
start of next week...as southwesterly flow increases out ahead of
approaching frontal boundary. With upper ridging in place...left the
forecast dry for start of next week...although a pop up shower or
storm cant be completely ruled out during daytime heating hours.
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 135 PM Monday...
Mainly VFR conditions with light surface winds through the
period. Isold convection possible...mainly 20Z-00Z...with brief
MVFR and IFR conditions possible. Best chance for convection
across NE KY...WV...and southwest VA. Any convection will taper
off after 00Z...with patchy dense IFR and LIFR fog developing in
favored river valleys after 06Z. Any fog will dissipate after
12-13Z for a return of VFR conditions for the remainder of the TAF
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Development of convection this afternoon
could vary from forecast. Fog development tonight could be more
widespread than currently forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms through mid week.
Early morning IFR possible in areas of fog into mid week.