Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 011805 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 205 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THIS WEEK. DIURNAL HEATING COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... SKY GRIDS WERE A TOUCH AGGRESSIVE THIS MORNING SO BROUGHT THOSE DOWN. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS NEW MODEL DATA STREAMS IN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD REMAINS IN CONTROL PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING. ANY SHOWER SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG FOR DEVELOPING DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME PLACES REACHING 90 DEGREES OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND TO THE MID 80S TO UPPER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WENT CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED ALL BLEND NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... WEAKLY FORCED PATTERN IS RELUCTANT TO CHANGE. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A VERY SIMILAR FORECAST. DID INCREASE POPS A BIT DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHOWING SIGNALS ON THE SREF. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER OHIO. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY SUMMER LIKE WEATHER PATTERN. WITH NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM THIS WILL KEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION SUPPRESSED WITH THE ONLY REAL CHANCE BEING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY. STILL DON/T SEE ANY TYPE OF FOCUSING MECHANISM AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONTINUED WITH THE WARMER SIZE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS AND DRY GROUND. IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN COULD BE CHANGING BY MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST OHIO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...CREATING HAVOC FOR THE FORECAST THROUGH DAWN. CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE ON THE LOWER SIDE...BUT COULD SEE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE THAT MAY HAMPER VALLEY FOG FORMATION. GOING ON THE AGGRESSIVE SIDE AND WILL PUT VALLEY FOG IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT BASED ON LAMP GUIDANCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DEPTH OF FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING EARLY MORNINGS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ/26 SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...FB AVIATION...26

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.