Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 240955 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 555 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT. COLD FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOW TO TAKE CONTROL IN MUCH COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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IN A PREDAWN UPDATE...WAS A BIT FASTER INCREASING POPS IN HTS-CRW CORRIDOR VCNTY THIS AFTN. BUT WAS A BIT SLOWER LIFTING WARM FRONT NORTH THIS EVENING...SO SLOWED THE INCREASING POPS TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE STILL DIFFICULT TO FIGURE TODAY...WITH THE SHALLOW COLDER AIR NEAR THE GROUND. REST OF DISCUSSION FROM 4 AM... THE DISTURBANCE THAT BRUSHED OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH SNOW MONDAY EVENING QUICKLY EXITED AFTER 06Z. IT DID SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR. COMBINE THAT WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL PACKING...AND A NE WIND NEAR THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 925 MB LEVEL...WE HAVE SOME LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS. COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE PRIOR TO DAWN. FURTHER SOUTH...LOW LEVELS WERE NOT SATURATED AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WAS ALREADY TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE VAD WIND AT CRW AT 08Z WAS FROM ABOUT 170 DEGREES AT 25 KNOTS. SO THOSE LOWER CLOUDS WILL NOT BE MOVING SOUTH...AND FIGURING THEY SHOULD EVAPORATE OR ERODE 12Z TO 15Z ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AT 18Z AND 00Z WERE MORE BULLISH ON RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. TRENDED AWAY FROM THAT...BUT STILL THINK LIGHT RAIN WILL WORK UP THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND HAVE 40 TO 60 POPS REACHING INTO TRI STATE AROUND HTS AFTER 21Z...THEN LIFT NORTHEAST DURING THIS TUESDAY EVENING. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY TRY TO DECREASE THE RAINS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...SAY CRW TO CKB. MEANWHILE...THAT SAME SE FLOW WILL LIKELY SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY BY 03Z TO 06Z AND REACH TOWARD BKW VCNTY. WILL HAVE A NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MOST NOTICEABLE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. HAVE TEMPERATURES RISING DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME. CERTAINLY A MORE SPRINGLIKE FELL TO THE AIR AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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FRONTAL ZONE HUNG UP IN OUR VICINITY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ONE SURFACE LOW DEPARTS TO THE NE WHILE ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE SW. HAVE GENERALLY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. ALSO HAVE SOME THUNDER MENTIONED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. STRONG COLD FRONT SURGES THROUGH ON THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS BEGINNING TO HINT AT A SECONDARY WAVE RIDING UP THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH MAY CAUSE IT TO HANG UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR A TIME. WEDNESDAY LOOKS WARM...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ALTHOUGH NOT REAL DRASTIC...DO HAVE A NON-DIURNAL ON THURSDAY...MAINLY IN SE OHIO.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... COLDER TREND SHAPING UP FOR THE EXTENDED BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXITING THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE LINGERING NORTHWEST FLOW AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING...SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MODIFIES THE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY BACK TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES FOR LATE MARCH. HOWEVER...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PARKED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WILL KNOCK THEM BACK DOWN ONCE AGAIN. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE THAT CROSSED EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MONDAY EVENING...IS LOWER CEILINGS. WILL LINGER SOME IFR CEILINGS A BIT LONGER INTO THE 12Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME. SO FAR NO SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED SO CHANCES SEEM SLIM AFTER DAWN. FIGURING THOSE LOWER CLOUDS EVAPORATE OR LIFT 14Z TO 16Z TODAY...INTO SOME MVFR CEILINGS BEFORE MIXING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THE KUNI-KPKB-KCKB BOUNDARY LAYER DID NOT SATURATE...SO MUCH HIGHER CEILINGS. WILL TRY TO FORM SOME LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS A BIT EARLIER IN THE HTS VCNTY THAN IN THE 06Z SET OF TAFS...MAY BE BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. THIS IS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...THEN LIFT THOSE SHOWERS BACK NORTH 00Z TO 06Z. CEILINGS MOSTLY 3 TO 4 THSD FT AND VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES IN THOSE SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW LIKELY TO FORM LOWER STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES. KBKW ON THE WESTERN FRINGE...BUT DID LOWER CEILINGS AT KBKW PRIOR TO 06Z WEDNESDAY. THOSE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR CEILINGS LINGER A BIT LONGER IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING THAN FORECAST. TIMING THE LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOPING TONIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES COULD BE SLOWER DEVELOPING AROUND BKW THAN FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 03/24/15 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M L L H H M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...KTB

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