Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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570 FXUS61 KRLX 122031 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 331 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY...AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. A COMPLEX SYSTEM COULD BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ITS LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT EAST BY EVENING...WITH ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTH. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLD ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL TRANSITION THE LIGHT SNOW TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE ARCTIC FRONT DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A LINE OF WINDY SNOW SQUALLS WITH THE FRONT...OTHERWISE...MAINLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LEAST IN THE WEST. ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL MOSTLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. NO HEADLINES FOR SNOW...CANCELLED THE SW VA ADVISORY FOR SNOW...BUT WIND CHILLS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THIS PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TERMS OF HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILL...FOCUSING ON THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THEIR FOOTHILLS. IT WILL BE NOTED IN THE ADVISORY THAT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS MAY REACH VALUES OF WARNING CRITERIA. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO DIVE TONIGHT AND RECOVER VERY LITTLE FOR SATURDAY...TRULY IN THE DEEP FREEZE...MADE EVEN WORSE EVERYWHERE BY THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SO EVEN THOUGH WE DO NOT MEET WIND CHILL CRITERIA IN THE LOW LANDS...APPARENT TEMPS WILL NOT BE MUCH ABOVE ZERO DURING SATURDAY. BE PREPARED!
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD AIR BEGINS A SLOW RETREAT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN IN THE SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING...AND GRADUALLY PUSH NORTH AS THE FAR NE CORNER OF A WAVE LIFTS NORTH AS A SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW IS SLOW TO DEEPEN...BUT AS IT IS DEVELOPING AS IT MOVES INTO OUR NEIGHBORHOOD THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON ITS TRACK AND THEREFORE PRECIPITATION TYPES. RIGHT NOW THE EURO KEEPS A SOLID WARM WEDGE IN OVER US LENDING MORE TOWARDS A RAIN SOLUTION WHILE THE GFS AND NAM TREND COLDER WHICH WOULD GIVE US A SNOW SOLUTION. DEFINITELY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR ANY WATCHES AT THE MOMENT. RIGHT NOW...CURRENT FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE THREE WHICH FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE WPC GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD GIVE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ONSET ALMOST AREA WIDE BEFORE SWITCHING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS MAY HAVE A LOCAL MAXIMA IN SNOW SINCE THE COLD AIR LINGERS A LITTLE WHILE LONGER WAITING FOR THE WARM AIR TO ARRIVE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING EARLY NEXT WEEK STORM...AND THUS...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. GFS AND NAM SEEMS TO BE TRENDING COLDER/MORE EASTERLY WITH THE LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A WARMER/MORE WESTERLY TRACK WITH THE SYSTEM. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATH...OF COURSE...CREATES CONUNDRUMS IN THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNT FORECAST. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL...GOOD 40+KT LLJ WILL AID IN HIGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. ONE THING THAT DOES LOOK FAIRLY CERTAIN...IS MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES SHOULD GET DECENT ACCUMULATIONS...WITH LOWLANDS LESS CERTAIN...AS MAY TRANSITION TO A RAIN SNOW MIX OR EVEN ALL RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW...THEN POSSIBLY BACK TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES ARE ALSO QUITE UNCERTAIN...AS DEPENDING ON THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM...THERE MAY BE A SHARP GRADIENT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES COULD SEE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...IF THE STORM TAKES A MORE WESTERLY TRACK...MAY EVEN SEE PERIODS OF A WINTRY MIX INCLUDING PERIODS OF SLEET ACROSS THE AREA PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT. SO ALL IN ALL...STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY...BUT WILL START HIGHLIGHTING THIS SYSTEM IN THE HWO. IN ADDITION...ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS...WILL BE A HEAVY WET SNOW. IN ADDITION TO THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION...EXPECTING QPF OF OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THIS...PARTICULARLY IF QUITE A BIT OF IT FALLS AS RAIN...COULD LEAD TO RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS...AND POTENTIALLY LEAD TO STRONG RISES ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z SATURDAY... WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SNOW MOSTLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS. AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH BRIEF IFR SQUALLS ALONG THE FRONT POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS 20 TO 35 KTS...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS INTO SATURDAY. THRU 00Z...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN SNOW THIS AFTERNOON MOSTLY CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AFFECTING BKW...THEN MAINLY INTO MOUNTAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS KICK IN. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS BUT BRIEFLY LOWER IN LIGHT SNOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: ***LOW/MEDIUM/HIGH*** ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY L M M H H H H H M L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... THEN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT MUCH MORE NUMEROUS IN THE MOUNTAINS. OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWERS...GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER AND MVFR CEILINGS REMAINDER OF LOW LANDS...MVFR TO IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS MOUNTAINS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY MORNING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SNOW LOOKS TO BE MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY L M M H H H H H M L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...RAIN...OR MIXED PRECIP MONDAY AND TUESDAY AREA WIDE.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ032-035>040-046-047. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/JW/SL NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...TRM/JW LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JMV

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