Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 131749 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 149 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Upslope light rain and drizzle on the eastward facing slopes today. Otherwise high pressure prevails through Saturday. A cold front crosses Sunday afternoon. Cooler early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 925 AM Friday... Forecast on track. As of 355 AM Friday... High pressure dominates this week, as upper level ridging gives way to southwest flow. However, an orographically enhanced gradient, resulting in stronger southeast flow into the central Appalachians, will maintain a low cloud deck along the eastern slopes, the moist layer deep enough for drizzle or even very light rain. This set up gradually breaks down tonight, as the gradient breaks down, and the low level flow weakens, and veers a bit. Elsewhere expect patchy cu/stratocu. Not much change in temperatures and dew points in light of the latest guidance, with the former climbing further above normal again. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 315 AM Friday... Saturday starts out dry, but foggy, under the influence of high pressure. Will be warm yet again on Saturday, with plenty of sunshine, and increasing southeasterly flow. On Sunday, a cold front will traverse the CWA, with showers, and isolated thunderstorms forming as it does so. With strengthening pressure gradient and winds aloft, some of the showers or isolated storms could have gusty winds associated with them, although at this point, no widespread severe is expected. Precipitation will continue into Sunday evening across far southern/eastern zones, as weak upper disturbances move along the front. Much cooler temperatures will usher into the region behind the front, but no widepsread fog or frost/freeze expected in the short term period due to continued light wind behind frontal passage. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 315 AM Friday... Much cooler, and dry early next week behind cold front. Monday night/Tuesday morning still looks to be a night of good radiational cooling, with surface high across the region, and much cooler air across the CWA, 850mb temps in the single digits. Expecting a fairly widespread frost/freeze Tuesday morning, and as with previous forecast, lowered temps a bit Tuesday morning from the blender. The southern lowlands/coal fields of WV are the more iffy locations with this scenario, with other areas more likely. Focus for the remainder of the week turns to the very dry air mass progged to be in place, with cool mornings, and warm sunny days. No significant fire threat at this time due to overall lack of winds, but will be warmer, with low RH afternoons. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 130 PM Friday... Losing the last of the MVFR skies over the southern mountains in the moist upslope flow, but brief MVFR could pop back in briefly through 06Z tonight. Elsewhere, expecting fog to form tonight under high pressure at the surface, with forecast guidance strongly signaling valley fog formation. Confidence is highest for the Ohio River terminals tonight. Surface winds less than 10kts through the period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need to add brief MVFR ceilings at BKW through 06Z. Fog timing likely to vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H L L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... Brief IFR possible with a cold front Sunday into Sunday night. Valley fog possible Monday night and Tuesday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM/26 SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...26

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