Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 181928 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 311 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AREA REMAINS UNDER CONTROL OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN ONTARIO/SOUTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT. WEATHER MAKER TONIGHT WILL BE THE SURFACE FLOW TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY GIVING UPSLOPE CLOUDS FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES AND A FILLING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD SLING SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL IN THE FORM OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. EXAMINATION OF THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWS ENOUGH OF A SATURATED LAYER FRIDAY TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. NO THUNDER EXPECTED WITH A MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE LIMITING THE VERTICAL EXTENT. AND WHILE COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE...NOT EVERYONE WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AREA. MET GUIDANCE REIGNS SUPREME FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS...AND USED THIS AS THE BASELINE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE NUDGED UPWARDS WITH THE FLOW STARTING TO SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. NAM IS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE THE FASTEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE NAM THE SLOWEST...AND THE SREF AND CANADIAN IN BETWEEN. UPPER AIR SUPPORT WOULD LEND TOWARD A SLOWER SOLUTION...BUT WITHOUT A LOT OF MODEL SUPPORT...WILL STAY TOWARD THE MIDDLE GROUND.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... EXPECT OVERALL CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING WANES. AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD BRING CLOUDS INTO THE EKN AREA AND HALT THE FORMATION OF THE TYGART VALLEY FOG FOR THAT TERMINAL. FURTHER SOUTH AT BKW...SOUTHEAST FLOW BRINGS IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO FRIDAY WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WERE THE MOST USEFUL TOOL FOR THE BKW TAF...SHOWING THE TIMING OF BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION AND THICKNESS OF THE SATURATED LAYER RESULTING IN DRIZZLE POTENTIAL FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE IN THE LOWLANDS...EXPECTING A LARGELY TYPICAL LATE SUMMER NOCTURNAL FOG PATTERN. RELIED ON THE LAMP GUIDANCE FOR TIMING OF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NAM MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE UPSLOPING IFR CEILINGS AT BKW. EKN FOG MAY NOT BEGIN OR ERODE AT FORECAST TIME. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...50/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...26

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