Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 020526 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 126 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE FRONT SETTLES FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE DRAPED NEAR THE I64 CORRIDOR FROM N KY INTO W WV. QUITE A BIT OF LOW STRATUS PERSISTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH IS MAKING FOR A DREARY DAY THUS FAR FOR AREAS FROM HTS TO CRW TO BKW. STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO MIX OUT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND SUNSHINE HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS SE OH WHERE DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED IN. THE STRATUS WILL CONT TO MIX OUT INTO BKN CU FIELD AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES. FOR PRECIP CHANCES...HAVE JUST SOME ISOLATED SHRA S OF I64 FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO RAMP UP LATE THIS AFTN ACROSS SW VA...AND THE S COAL FIELDS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SLIPPING A HAIR FURTHER S AND BECOMING MORE ENERGIZED WITH INCREASING LLVL CONVERGENCE FROM APPROACH OF A DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH THETA E ADVECTION. DID ALLOW FOR THUNDER ACROSS THESE AREAS BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK GIVEN LACK OF GOOD HEATING DESPITE THE THETA E ADVECTION. MUCH OF THE ACTION WANES THIS EVENING...LEAVING JUST ISOLATED SHRA THREAT ACROSS S WV AND SW VA. TOUGH TO FIGURE OUT WHERE THE FG AND LOW STRATUS WILL FORM. BL WINDS LOOK TO RELAX QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT AND WITH ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...THINK BEST FG POTENTIAL IS SE OH AND N WV. THINKING THE LOW STRATUS REFORMS ACROSS S ZONES AND WITH A LIGHT NE LLVL WIND...BKW SHOULD FG DOWN AS WELL. FOR THURSDAY...IT MAY TAKE A WHILE AGAIN FOR THE STRATUS TO MIX OUT S OF THE BOUNDARY...GIVEN THE LIGHT FLOW AND LOW INVERSION. WILL WATCH FOR DECAYING MCS OVER PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY AND HOW IT INTERACTS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA. FEELING IS MUCH OF THE DAY IS RELATIVELY QUIET WITH EXTENT OF CLOUDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY...PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS S ZONES IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE LIFTING UP FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. INCREASED POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...BUT KEPT HIGHER POPS SOUTH WITH CURRENT THINKING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS WELL AND CAN`T RULE OUT SCATTERED THUNDER AND POSSIBLE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TO EARLY FOR ANY POSSIBLE WATCHES RIGHT NOW AND KEEP THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO FOR NOW. THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE NIGHT OF FRIDAY AND THIS WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE RAIN WITH IT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL DRY US OUT FOR THE WEEKEND IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. SEMI-DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEAK WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN FOR MIDWEEK. STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... MVFR/IFR FOG ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH MVFR STRATUS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KHTS TO KCRW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AREA WIDE AFTER 14Z...HOWEVER...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA...WITH A LIGHT FLOW EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY. NUMEROUS WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY 15-02Z...WITH BULK OF ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WV...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND NORTHEAST KY. EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF STORMS. IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VA DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN QUESTION TONIGHT. TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN QUESTION. AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/JMV/30 NEAR TERM...JMV/30 SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...SL

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