Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 200240 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1040 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure with cool mornings and warm afternoons is on tap through the weekend. A strong cold front and low pressure system crosses early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 810 PM Thursday... High pressure in control. No changes. As of 225 PM Thursday... These near term shifts continue to remain void of any significant weather. There will be a weak front crossing this evening across the northern reaches of the CWA but will have little if any impact other than a few clouds. Expect another quick drop in temps this evening in the valleys and hollows. Overnight lows will see a few degrees improvement from last night/this morning, continuing the trend over the past few days. The boundary winds will be a bit more relaxed tonight, so expect some dense river valley fog, primarily hugging the main stem river banks. One can basically paste today`s weather in for tomorrow, with sunshine amid temperatures running 8 to 12 degrees above normal. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 220 PM Thursday... A high pressure system will continue to provide dry conditions Friday. This high pressure will drift east of the area resulting in warm, and continued dry weather under southwest flow through the weekend. Used the super blend of models and bias corrected SREF models for temperatures through the period. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 220 PM Thursday... A strong upper level low pressure system in the northern stream will drive a sfc cold front over the OH Valley Sunday night. A second low pressure system at the sfc will produce southwest flow, increasing winds, and dewpoints by Monday night into Tuesday. Both features will become in phase to enhance showers or storms Monday through Tuesday. Allowed PoPs to increase to likely for now across the entire area for Monday through Tuesday. Went with the blend of models for temperatures through the period. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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00Z Friday thru 00Z Saturday... As of 1040 PM Thursday... No changes. As of 745 PM Thursday... Only change was to very briefly add IFR at EKN, and MVFR at most other terminals in fog early Friday morning. As of 230 PM Thursday... A weak front crosses this evening with perhaps a few clouds across northern terminals. Otherwise dense river valley fog once again tonight, though likely remaining somewhat shallow and tight to the riverbanks. This thinking keeps dense fog out of the terminals once again. One fly in the ointment is boundary layer winds will be lighter than last night so there is at least some concern PKB/EKN/CRW could experience IFR or worse. VFR conditions on Friday with basically another cloud free sky. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may affect northern terminals overnight if low level winds relax more than expected. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 10/20/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M L L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... Dense valley fog possible each morning through the weekend, and in rain at times early next week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/30 NEAR TERM...JMV/30 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...JMV

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