Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 120705 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 305 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARM SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES. NEXT FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A TRANQUIL PERIOD BETWEEN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY...ALLOWING A WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON THE MASS FIELDS. TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER THIS HIGH HAS ALLOWED FIRST SIGNIFICANT WARM SEASON EARLY MORNING FOG TO FORM IN SOME RIVER VALLEYS...BUT WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING WITH HEATING AND MIXING. UNTIL THEN...THERE ARE SOME NOCTURNAL LOW STRATUS SHOWING UP IN THE NORTH AND EAST...WHILE SOME MID CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH FROM AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. SO WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT...EARLY MORNING CLOUDS WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR HOW MUCH EARLY MORNING FOG FORMS AND IS MAINTAINED. EXPECT ENOUGH STARS...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NORTHEAST AND SOUTH...TO HAVE RIVER AND VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE BURNING OFF. IN ANY CASE...WITH LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR WARM FRONT...ONLY SOME CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE WARM FRONT TODAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. WILL NOT PLAY ON INSTABILITY WITH LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE...NOR WEAK SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW...FOR ANY POPS TODAY. WILL KEEP DRY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY TO REACH NEAR 80 IN MANY AREAS. MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT...BUT SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LESS FOG FORMATION AND A MILD NIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NO WHOLESALE CHANGES FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TONIGHT AS MODELS ARE HOLDING TRUE TO THE PATTERN FOR SEVERAL FORECAST RUNS NOW. FIGURE THERE WILL END UP BEING SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES...BUT THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE THE COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STILL HAVE TO GIVE A BROAD TIME RANGE FOR THE POPS...ALTHOUGH THE 15Z START TIME OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WITH THE LOW END POPS MAY PROVE TO BE A TAD QUICK. MODELS ARE STILL ON BOARD WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER RIDING NORTH ALONG THE FRONT AFTER PASSAGE WHICH WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALIVE INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL PEAK IN THE 60-70KT RANGE MONDAY EVENING POSING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE...500MB HEIGHTS DROP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVING IN. EXPECTING A MUCH COOLER DAY ON TUESDAY...AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GROWING SEASON GRADUALLY GET GOING. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE SE STATES AND THEN MOVING UP THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME SCT THUNDER WITH THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME INSTABILITY...BUT NOT GREAT. LOW QUICKLY MOVES UP FRONT AND CONTINUES HIGH POPS OVER THE AREA. THEN MOVES OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS. COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF TEMPS THROUGHOUT. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 06Z SATURDAY THRU 06Z SUNDAY... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS UNDER THIS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO THE FIRST EPISODE OF TYPICAL WARM SEASON EARLY MORNING RIVER AND VALLEY FOG. SCT-BKN 4000-8000 FEET AGL MAINLY SOUTH...WITH MVFR TO IFR RIVER AND VALLEY FOG 06Z TO 12Z AFFECTING MAJOR TAF SITES. AFTER 12Z...WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. GENERALLY SCT CLOUDS 6000-8000 FEET AGL...EXCEPT OCCASIONALLY BKN NORTHWEST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG. HIGH OTHERWISE. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/DENSITY OF RIVER AND VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 04/12/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M L L L H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H M M H H M L H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M L L L H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M H H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/26 NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...21 AVIATION...JMV

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