Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 250237 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1036 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT. COLD FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOW TO TAKE CONTROL. MUCH COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 945 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... FLOW AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD...WITH WARM AIR PUSHING NWD W OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE ASSOCIATED TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ENCOURAGING CAD WEDGE ON INCREASING SE FLOW E OF THE MOUNTAINS. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WAS WORKING EWD INTO THE AREA FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY...N OF A WARM FRONT EDGING INTO SRN KENTUCKY. THIS SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE SOMEWHAT AS IT PUSHES NWD TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT...WITH THE HELP OF AN INITIAL UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THE S/W LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON WED....THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORRESPONDING SFC LOW LOSES ITS PUSH...SO HAVE JUST A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TRAVERSING THE FCST AREA BENEATH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/W TROUGH...WELL UPSTREAM WED AFTERNOON. USED THE HRRR AND MET FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WHICH WILL BECOME NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS A SLIGHT RISE W OF AND A SLIGHT FALL E OF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW. BLENDED IN THE MET AND BIAS CORRECTED MAV FOR A WARM WED AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR ARKANSAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WILL MOVE TO OHIO BY 12Z THURSDAY AND THEN CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS PA...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED EASTWARD. CURRENT THINKING IS THE FRONT WILL BE WEST OF OUR AREA AT 12Z...ALONG A CKB TO CRW TO JKL LINE AT 18Z...AND THEN BE EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 21Z. HAVE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD WANE AFTER SUNSET AND EXPECT ANY STORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY 03Z. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. EVEN AS FRONT PUSHES EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. THE TROF SHOULD PUSH EAST LATER FRIDAY/ FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AN END IN MOST LOCATIONS. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN THOSE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MIX WITH...OR CHANGE TO SNOW...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING MID MINUS TEENS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FOR THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH TROUGH ALOFT CUTS IN. WILL CONTINUE TO SIT ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE NUMBERS AND BELOW...ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLEARER SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES MODIFY OUT OF THE COLDER PATTERN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS ONCE AGAIN. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 02Z WEDNESDAY THRU 00Z THURSDAY... SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT PUSHING NWD THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WILL CAUSE LITTLE FLIGHT CAT RESTRICTIONS. HOWEVER...MOISTENING AND STRENGTHENING SE FLOW ON THE E SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS IS LIKELY TO BRING MVFR STRATOCU THERE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WED...AFFECTING BKW. OTHERWISE...A GENERAL VFR CEILING 4000-8000 FEET WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. LIGHT NE SFC FLOW WILL VEER TO SE TONIGHT...AND THEN STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY...BECOMING A BIT GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ON THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOPING TONIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES COULD BE SLOWER DEVELOPING AROUND BKW THAN FORECAST. THE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN COULD LEAD TO MVFR VSBYS HERE AND THERE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT INCREASING FLOW SHOULD PREVENT THIS FROM BECOMING TOO MUCH OF A FACTOR. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 03/25/15 UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THU. IFR POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN WV AND DOWN THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THU NT IN MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/TRM/JMV/26 NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JMV

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.