Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 192333 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 733 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS LOW ALONG SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES EAST. DRY AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER AND MONDAY. COLD FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE CROSSES TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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730 PM UPDATE... EXPANDED HIGH CIRRUS SHIELD FURTHER NORTHWEST THIS EVENING PER SATELLITE TRENDS...BUT OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... DRY AND WARM ARE THE WORDS IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AND BUILDING RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD. CIRRUS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN U.S. CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST...WITH A SUNNY SKY EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE TODAY...AND GUSTY WINDS DURING AFTERNOON HEATING...ELECTED TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER...AS 10 HOUR FUELS ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN RATHER DRY FROM RECENT DRY SPELL. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY ALSO SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER DRY AIR TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY...BUT COULD STILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES DURING PEAK HEATING...SO WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL SPS FOR SUNDAY IN FUTURE SHIFTS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SFC AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WANE LATE SUN NT AND MON. RH VALUES DIP WELL INTO THE 20S AGAIN ON MON...BUT WITH WIND SPEEDS OF ONLY 5 TO 10 MPH AND ONLY 10 TO 15 KTS H9-H8...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER THREAT. COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL NRN STREAM TROUGH CROSS TUE. SRN STREAM S/W OUT AHEAD OF MAIN FEATURE CROSSES MON NT...WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INITIALLY...BUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASES W TO E OVERNIGHT MON NT...AS THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN. SHOWERS MOVE W TO E ACROSS THE AREA MON MORNING INTO MON AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT...AND WAVE THAT FORMS ALONG IT. THIS WAVE SLOWS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS PACKAGE AS REFLECTED NAM12...AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE EUROPEAN SOLNS. THE AMERICAN AND CANADIAN MODELS APPEAR FASTER WITH NO WAVE...BUT THEIR EMPHASIS ON THE LEE TROUGH...MAKE THEM APPEAR FASTER STILL. WINDS...MOISTURE AND CAPE ARE MODEST WITH THIS SYSTEM SO...WITH ITS PROGRESSIVE NATURE...DO NOT EXPECT ISSUES WITH SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING WITH THIS SPRING COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH DO HAVE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AT LEAST 500 J KG-1 CAPE TUE. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR LOWS TO COOL VALLEYS...MAINLY IN THE E IN THE CASE OF THE LATTER NT. KEPT RIDGES WARM BOTH NTS. BLENDED IN THE MET AND MAV FOR HIGHS MON...AT OR ABOVE PREV FCST AND GUIDANCE. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED BLEND AND ECMWF FOR HIGHS TUE...LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FCST AND GUIDANCE GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... DIMINISHING SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT PASSING TUESDAY EXITING TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGS DRIER AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LATEST ECMWF AND GFS MORE IN LINE TODAY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF COLD FRONT AND PCPN EXPECTED WITH IT. THE GFS SHOW SOME SFC CAPE UP TO 600 J/KG. NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT AT LEAST ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THUNDER FRIDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. INCREASE POPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EFFECTIVE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BECOME NEAR-CALM OVERNIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY 18Z SUN AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS SPEEDS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT. SCT-BKN HIGH CIRRUS DECK CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH WHILE DISSIPATING AS THE SFC LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY...LEAVING BEHIND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY BY 12Z SUN...WHICH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 04/20/14 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z MONDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL NEAR TERM...50/SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...50

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