Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 201916 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 316 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A frontal boundary over the area will drift slowly the north late this afternoon and evening, triggering showers and thunderstorms. A stronger cold front crosses from the west Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure moves in for Monday and Monday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 305 PM Saturday... Frontal boundary will lift northward this afternoon and evening. With a moist airmass in place with afternoon heating will fire convection just about anywhere over the area. With weak flow aloft these storms will be slow movers. Any one of these storms could product upwards of an inch or two. With the saturated ground across the Southern Coalfields, went ahead an issued FFA for that area. Cold front to our west will continue to move eastward overnight and should be on our doorstep by 12z Sunday. Increased pops as front approaches. Generally went with a blend of guid for temps through out.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 305 PM Saturday... Cold front pushes through Sunday night and exits early Monday morning. Pwats increase with limited sfc CAPE and deep layered shear. Therefore, expect an environment conducive to flash flooding and not severe for Sunday. WPC has most of WV under a Slight risk for excessive rainfall Sunday. A flash flood watch may be required. Behind the front, expect a period of cooler and drier air early Monday into Tuesday.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 305 PM Saturday... The chances for rain return by midweek with the next frontal system. Temperatures will return to a more seasonable level during this period.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 154 PM Saturday... VFR conditions will prevail through the early afternoon hours. Heating along with frontal boundary lifting northward through the region will fire Showers/TSTMs just about any where over the area this afternoon and into this evening. MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys in and near those storms. Quickest development will be along the WV/VA mountains from EKN-BKW line. SHRA/TSTMs should die down after sunset. Some fog may develop in those areas where it rained after midnight. Cold front to our west will continue to move eastward during the day on Sunday and some convection with this front could be over the area by midday Sunday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and placement of showers/TSTMs this afternoon may vary. Also, development and placement of fog may vary overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... Isolated IFR possible in fog Sunday and Monday nights, and in showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Monday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005-013- 024>026-033-034-515-516. OH...None. KY...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for KYZ105. VA...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ003-004.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/JW NEAR TERM...JS SHORT TERM...JS/JW LONG TERM...JS/JW AVIATION...JS

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