Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 261743 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 143 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AREA REMAINS IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND HUMID AIR. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO TRIM POPS A BIT FOLLOWING LATEST RADAR IMAGES. RAINFALL ACTIVITY IS VERY LIMITED ATTM. HOWEVER...KEPT LIKELY POPS AS EXPECTED CONVECTION SHOULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH...AND NORTHEAST KY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURES PER LATEST SFC OBS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... 630 AM UPDATE... THERE REMAIN SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH MORNING MID LEVEL WAVE COME TOGETHER IN TERMS OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL. KEPT THE SMALL LIKELY POPS MOVING NEWD THROUGH FCST AREA THIS MORNING BUT LOWERED THE CHANCE FOR THE UNDER. PREV DISCN... WARM MOIST AIR ON THE MOVE KEEPS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FCST THIS PERIOD. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY IS LIMITED TO A KG PER KG OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON ON ACCOUNT OF MORNING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...AS PW VALUES RESIDE MAINLY BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES. OTHERWISE WEAK RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A S/W TROUGH DRIFTING NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...TO THE MIDWEST WED MORNING...WILL DRIVE CONVECTION TIMING. ONE RIPPLE WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO ERN KY EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. THE MAIN S/W TROUGH AXIS THEN LIFTS NEWD AND IS REPLACED BY ANOTHER...THE LARGER FEATURE EFFECTIVELY MUCH SLOWER THAN THE SMALLER RIPPLES WITHIN THE FLOW. THE TAIL END OF THE ORIGINAL S/W TROUGH APPROACHES THE FCST AREA FROM THE W LATE TODAY AND THEN CROSSES TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO PROGRESS GENERALLY FROM W TO E ACROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. THE STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH THE LATE DAY INSTABILITY...COULD LEAD TO STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF ONE IF FAR ENOUGH N AND W TO AVOID MUCH OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE HWO MENTION IN LINE WITH THE NEW SWODY1. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE STORMS WILL BE ON THE MOVE...LIMITING ANY HIGH WATER TO THE ACUTE POOR DRAINAGE VARIETY. BLENDED IN MOSGUIDE FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS ESPECIALLY E TODAY...STILL AT THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP. LOWS TONIGHT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND ACCEPTED. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... ACTIVE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND THIS ALONG WITH SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING HOURS. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN THE HUMID ATMOSPHERE. THE AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST LOCATION FOR SEVERE LOOKS TO BE TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL EXIST. WILL HOWEVER MENTION THE MARGINAL IN THE HWO AS AN ISOLATED STORM GOING SEVERE IN THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS CANT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE STALLING OR WASHING OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...THERE APPEARS TO BE NO RELIEF IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. IN ADDITION...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FOLLOWED ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FRONT CROSSES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SOME COOLING AND DRYING NORTH AND WEST. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP POPS COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FORECAST SO LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH FRONT BEING IN THE AREA. THUS...SUMMER LIKE BROAD BRUSH OF CHC POPS CARRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POCKETS OF SUNSHINE PROVIDING NEEDED HEATING FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION WILL INITIATE ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHEAST OH AROUND 21Z...AND A SECOND BATCH AROUND 02Z...TO AFFECT MAINLY THE EASTERN SITES...PKN...HTS...AND CRW THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER SUNSET...THE RAINFALL ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST TOWARDS OUR EASTERN SITES BUT WINING DOWN PER LOOSING DIURNAL HEATING. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE SO CODED VCTS AND VCSH THROUGH TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM...WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING/MOVING UP FROM THE S THIS AFTERNOON...PLUS TIMING NEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM THE WSW LATE THIS EVENING. SPC MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FURTHER WEST...AWAY FROM OUR AREA INDICATING THAT THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS HAS DIMINISHED. HAVE CIGS MAINLY 4-5 KFT AND PREVAILING VFR VSBY. A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR IS STILL POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THUNDER IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN SITES. THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE BENEATH ANY THUNDERSTORM LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. LIGHT S TO SW FLOW BECOMES S TO SE BY TONIGHT...WITH MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY DIFFER FROM FORECAST. THERE MAY BE IFR IN SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN INDUCED FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. .AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...IFR MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WED AFTERNOON. && WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...ARJ

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