Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 200608 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 108 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Record highs expected today. Cold front midweek brings showers and storms. Front stalls through the end of the week, with significant rainfall possible.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 100 AM Tuesday... High pressure, at the surface and aloft, remains to our east, with southerly flow in place across the middle Ohio River Valley and Central Appalachians. This will make for a very warm day. High temperatures are actually a bit tricky today. We will see a fair amount of sun, although there will be some clouds drifting through. We will see some downslope effect with south to southeast winds -- however with the wind direction more southerly, we likely will not see as strong of downslope effect that a more southeasterly wind would produce. Finally the wet ground may have an impact. There is also a decent split between guidance -- with raw model data generally pointing at mid 70s across the lowlands, while MOS data indicates low to mid 80s. Chose to blend in a consensus of MOS into the previous forecast which resulted in near to just a touch above the previous numbers. This gives daily record highs at all climate sites, with monthly record highs at some. Monthly records are detailed following the climate header below. A cold front moves into the lower Ohio River Valley tonight. Have some low end POPs just entering from the west in the pre- dawn. Expect a mild night, with lows in the 50s to low 60s. Meanwhile, the Ohio River has crested throughout the forecast area, and river levels are now on the decrease.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 245 PM Monday... The period starts dry and solidly in the warm sector to start the short term with Wednesday morning temperatures in the 50`s to around 60 across the area thanks to continued southerly flow. Look for Wednesday highs in the 60`s to 70`s, perhaps near 80 depending on the extent of western cloud cover. Ridging aloft shifts off- shore of the East Coast with the approach of a broad frontal zone from the West, increasing precipitation chances during the day Wednesday. Showers continue as the boundary moves into the region through Wednesday night and stalls through the end of the period. Thursday will be cooler as we`ll be placed on the cold side of the frontal boundary. The best forcing in right entrance of strong jet over eastern Canada at this time looks to provide ample lift and in turn high rainfall rates near the Ohio River Thursday. A relative lull in precipitation presents itself Thursday night, though some models have the aforementioned boundary again lifting to the north providing some light showers. So, have chosen to keep PoP`s up in the chance category to account for this. With PWAT exceeding 1.25" in the Ohio Valley... high rainfall amounts are possible with around 0.75" forecast in the Ohio Valley with locally higher amounts likely due to storm training, but will need to wait for higher resolution data to pinpoint where.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday... The all-too-familiar wet pattern continues through the weekend with ridging off shore of the East Coast and troughing over the western CONUS. This pattern will continue to pump in moisture and warmth. Yet another wave moves across the stalled frontal boundary Friday bringing higher precipitation chances particularly in the Ohio Valley. Then, in a cautiously hopeful turn of events, deep troughing to our West turns more zonal with a progressive short wave pushing through one last wave of heavy precipitation late Saturday through Sunday. Considering the already saturated soils and rainfall leading up to this prolonged weekend event, additional flooding on area creeks and streams and perhaps main stem rivers remain a possibility and it will continue to be highlighted in the HWO. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 100 AM Tuesday... VFR is expected at all TAF sites through the TAF period with south to southeasterly low level flow. MVFR ceilings are expected along the eastern slopes in low stratus, but do not anticipate this spilling over to BKW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR clouds in Ohio and the southeast upslope counties may or may not form. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 02/20/18 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR possible in showers late Wednesday or Wednesday night into Thursday.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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Below are the record high temperatures for the month of February at the official climate sites, along with the most recent date that temperature was recorded. Beckley ------ 75F --- 2/17/1927 Charleston --- 80F --- 2/24/2017 Elkins ------- 77F --- 2/24/2017 Huntington --- 80F --- 2/24/2017 Parkersburg -- 79F --- 2/24/2017
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/MC NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...MZ CLIMATE...MZ

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