Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 020709 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 309 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAFFLES ACROSS THE AREA AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH AT TIMES.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT 07Z GENERALLY STRETCHED WEST TO EAST...BISECTING CWA IN HALF. THIS BOUNDARY WILL WAFFLE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...AS LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED NEAR THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE REGION. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE PATH OF THIS LOW...AND SUBSEQUENT NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION...OR TIMING. NAM TAKES THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS TN...WHILE GFS TAKES THE LOW FARTHER NORTH ACROSS KY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS FOR PRECIPITATION TIMING AND NORTHERN EXTENT...WHICH KEEPS LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH. NUMEROUS VORT MAXES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW AT TIMES...WHICH WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME...WILL HELP TO TRIGGER PRECIP AT TIMES. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL WATER ISSUES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH TIME. MOIST ATMOSPHERE...PW VALUES EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.7 ACROSS THE SOUTH...COMBINED WITH A WEAK FLOW...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS...AND AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL HELP TO TRIGGER/ENHANCE CONVECTION AT TIMES...COULD SEE ISSUES DEVELOP WITH TIME. SOMEWHAT GOOD NEWS IS THAT FFG VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE RATHER HIGH...GENERALLY 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR...AND AROUND 2-2.2 INCHES IN 3 HOURS...WILL FOR NOW...CONTINUE A MENTION IN THE HWO.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE LIFTING UP FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. INCREASED POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...BUT KEPT HIGHER POPS SOUTH WITH CURRENT THINKING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS WELL AND CAN`T RULE OUT SCATTERED THUNDER AND POSSIBLE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TO EARLY FOR ANY POSSIBLE WATCHES RIGHT NOW AND KEEP THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO FOR NOW. THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE NIGHT OF FRIDAY AND THIS WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE RAIN WITH IT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL DRY US OUT FOR THE WEEKEND IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. SEMI-DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEAK WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN FOR MIDWEEK. STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... MVFR/IFR FOG ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH MVFR STRATUS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KHTS TO KCRW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AREA WIDE AFTER 14Z...HOWEVER...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA...WITH A LIGHT FLOW EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY. NUMEROUS WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY 15-02Z...WITH BULK OF ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WV...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND NORTHEAST KY. EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF STORMS. IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VA DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN QUESTION TONIGHT. TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN QUESTION. AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...SL

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