Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KRLX 250741
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
341 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016
Hot and humid as mid summer like conditions return.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Its back to summer as high pressure aloft builds over the region.
Prior to that...models have a weak upper disturbance dropping
southeast across the area this morning. While the model QPF may be
overdone...there is a soupy and conditionally unstable airmass in
place with this feature. While the remnants of upstream convection
with this feature is dissipating at 3 am...we still look for widely
scattered to scattered convection this morning as the feature tracks
southeast. Thereafter...under the building upper high and warming
aloft...it will be hot and humid this afternoon with sunshine...and
convection should be limited mostly to the mountain elevated heat
source. Conditions...however...are expected to be below heat
advisory criteria this afternoon. Look for highs around 90 degrees.
For tonight...look for warm and muggy conditions with lack of
convection as the warm upper high continues to build.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As 335 AM Thursday...
Hot and humid weather to continue across the region...with upper
ridging across the eastern U.S. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
will be possible...mainly during peak heating hours...with best
chances across the higher terrain counties. Heat indices over the
weekend will reach into the mid to upper 90s.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 335 PM Wednesday...
Stubborn high pressure continues though begins to erode as a
tropical system slides westward into the Gulf of Mexico. Flow
turns more zonal over our area though no appreciable weather in
this period at this time. Maintained schc to chance PoPs for the
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 150 AM Thursday...
06Z Thursday through 06Z Friday...
Being in the warm sector...models show southwesterly winds just
above the surface strong enough to prevent fog formation
this period. Models also show an upper disturbance driving across
our area later overnight and into Thursday morning...enough to
generate at least scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm in
the now moist atmosphere...especially across the northwest
Given all this...we expect VFR conditions to prevail this period.
Look for SCT-BKN 5000-7000 feet AGL clouds remainder of the
overnight period...except lower in widely scattered to scattered
showers and possibly a thunderstorm...mostly across the north
through 14z. Thereafter...generally sct clouds 4000-6000 feet
AGL...except ceilings 3500-4500 feet with scattered showers and a
thunderstorms mostly in the mountains through the afternoon.
After 00z...convection in the mountains rapidly dissipate early
this evening with loss of heating...then generally SCT-BKN
5000-8000 foot AGL across the area with lack of convection
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low stratus could form overnight western
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 08/25/16
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H L L L H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M L L M M H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M H H H L
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR in morning river valley fog possible through the
weekend...depending on cloud cover.