Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 250741 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 341 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid as mid summer like conditions return. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Its back to summer as high pressure aloft builds over the region. Prior to that...models have a weak upper disturbance dropping southeast across the area this morning. While the model QPF may be overdone...there is a soupy and conditionally unstable airmass in place with this feature. While the remnants of upstream convection with this feature is dissipating at 3 am...we still look for widely scattered to scattered convection this morning as the feature tracks southeast. Thereafter...under the building upper high and warming aloft...it will be hot and humid this afternoon with sunshine...and convection should be limited mostly to the mountain elevated heat source. Conditions...however...are expected to be below heat advisory criteria this afternoon. Look for highs around 90 degrees. For tonight...look for warm and muggy conditions with lack of convection as the warm upper high continues to build. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As 335 AM Thursday... Hot and humid weather to continue across the region...with upper ridging across the eastern U.S. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible...mainly during peak heating hours...with best chances across the higher terrain counties. Heat indices over the weekend will reach into the mid to upper 90s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 335 PM Wednesday... Stubborn high pressure continues though begins to erode as a tropical system slides westward into the Gulf of Mexico. Flow turns more zonal over our area though no appreciable weather in this period at this time. Maintained schc to chance PoPs for the dirty ridge. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 150 AM Thursday... 06Z Thursday through 06Z Friday... Being in the warm sector...models show southwesterly winds just above the surface strong enough to prevent fog formation this period. Models also show an upper disturbance driving across our area later overnight and into Thursday morning...enough to generate at least scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm in the now moist atmosphere...especially across the northwest portions. Given all this...we expect VFR conditions to prevail this period. Look for SCT-BKN 5000-7000 feet AGL clouds remainder of the overnight period...except lower in widely scattered to scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm...mostly across the north through 14z. Thereafter...generally sct clouds 4000-6000 feet AGL...except ceilings 3500-4500 feet with scattered showers and a thunderstorms mostly in the mountains through the afternoon. After 00z...convection in the mountains rapidly dissipate early this evening with loss of heating...then generally SCT-BKN 5000-8000 foot AGL across the area with lack of convection tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low stratus could form overnight western slopes. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 08/25/16 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H L L L H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M L L M M H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M H H H L AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR in morning river valley fog possible through the weekend...depending on cloud cover. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/SL NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...JMV

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