Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 241905 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 305 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front slides southward across the area through this evening. A much stronger cold front will cross late Monday, setting us up with more autumn-like temperatures next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 3 PM Saturday... Quiet weather continues as a weak cold front slides south of the area this evening, with little fanfare. High pressure over the Great Lakes ridges south and east down the eastern slopes of the Appalachians tonight and Sunday. This will set up an inverted surface trough just west of the mountains later tonight and Sunday. The main effect of this will be to allow some low level moisture and clouds east of the mountains to advect westward into the mountains later tonight, as low level flow turns more easterly. Models tries to spit out some very low and spotty QPF in the mountains tonight, but not buying into this with shallow moisture and building heights. While noting there is a question as to whether these clouds may reach the I79 corridor later tonight if the winds remain more northeasterly...we look for mostly clear skies west of the mountains tonight. This will to better river valley fog formation in the drier and cooler air behind the front. Sunday will be continued warm adn dry with abundant sunshine under high pressure, with mountains clouds mixing out during the morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 AM Saturday... Frontal boundary should be across far southern zones at the start of the period...with slightly lower dew points across the north. Most of the area should be dry on Sunday...although a slight chance for showers is possible across the south and the higher terrain mainly during peak heating hours. Cold front will approach from the west on Monday...with showers and thunderstorms...with much cooler air moving in behind the front. Front should be to the east of the CWA by late Monday night...with drier air filtering in. Area will be under the influence of an upper low/trough into mid week...with isolated -shra and clouds possible...mainly across the north...along with cooler/more seasonable temperatures. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 18Z Saturday thru 18Z Sunday... As of 1225 pm Friday... Cold front exits by Tuesday afternoon taking any precip with it. Much cooler and drier air works its way in behind it as high pressure builds across the region by Tuesday night. A secondary trof axis rotates across the northern portion of the CWA Tuesday night and Wednesday. Best chances of any precip will be north of the CWA and we should only see clouds with this. Cool high pressure will start to build across the region Wednesday night and for the rest of the week. Cooler and more fall like temperatures are expected as well. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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18Z Saturday thru 12Z Sunday. As of 145 PM Saturday... Thru 00Z, A weak east to west cold front, across the central portion of WV and extreme southeast OH at 17z, will continue southward through this afternoon. Front will exit the far south early this evening. Band of associated clouds has largely dissipated...and we look VFR SCT-BKN clouds between 3500-5000 feet AGL remainder of this afternoon. Light and variable winds ahead of the front becomes northerly 5 to 10 KTS behind the front. After 00Z, Most clouds will have dissipated by around 00Z, then generally FEW-SCT 5000-8000 feet AGL, but with one important exception. As the winds turn more light northeasterly and then southeasterly tonight, MVFR/IFR ceilings will tend to form in the WV mountain chain. This will bring MVFR ceilings by 06z to EKN and BKW, then IFR after 08z, with some LIFR in the higher elevations. River valley fog looks be more of an issue after 06Z tonight behind the front, especially where skies are clear. This will bring MVFR/IFR fog to major TAF sites, except BKW, after 07Z. After 13z, Outside of the mountains, improving to VFR mostly clear by 14z. In the mountains, fog lifting to MVFR ceilings by 14z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, extent and intensity of fog tonight is likely to vary. Timing and extent of MVFR stratocu in the mountains tonight may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY L L H H H M H H H H H L AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... Low stratus possible Monday night, then morning valley fog possible next week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...JMV

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