Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 200505 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1258 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
DRY AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER AND MONDAY. COLD FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE CROSSES TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD. ONLY SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DRY 850 MB AIR TODAY AND SOME SUNSHINE...WILL INCREASE THE DAYTIME WINDS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR DRY AIR MIXING TO THE SURFACE. WILL ALSO LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SINCE DECENT RADIATION CONDITIONS AND DEW POINTS REMAINING FAIRLY LOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SFC AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WANE LATE SUN NT AND MON. RH VALUES DIP WELL INTO THE 20S AGAIN ON MON...BUT WITH WIND SPEEDS OF ONLY 5 TO 10 MPH AND ONLY 10 TO 15 KTS H9-H8...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER THREAT. COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL NRN STREAM TROUGH CROSS TUE. SRN STREAM S/W OUT AHEAD OF MAIN FEATURE CROSSES MON NT...WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INITIALLY...BUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASES W TO E OVERNIGHT MON NT...AS THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN. SHOWERS MOVE W TO E ACROSS THE AREA MON MORNING INTO MON AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT...AND WAVE THAT FORMS ALONG IT. THIS WAVE SLOWS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS PACKAGE AS REFLECTED NAM12...AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE EUROPEAN SOLNS. THE AMERICAN AND CANADIAN MODELS APPEAR FASTER WITH NO WAVE...BUT THEIR EMPHASIS ON THE LEE TROUGH...MAKE THEM APPEAR FASTER STILL. WINDS...MOISTURE AND CAPE ARE MODEST WITH THIS SYSTEM SO...WITH ITS PROGRESSIVE NATURE...DO NOT EXPECT ISSUES WITH SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING WITH THIS SPRING COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH DO HAVE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AT LEAST 500 J KG-1 CAPE TUE. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR LOWS TO COOL VALLEYS...MAINLY IN THE E IN THE CASE OF THE LATTER NT. KEPT RIDGES WARM BOTH NIGHTS. BLENDED IN THE MET AND MAV FOR HIGHS MON...AT OR ABOVE PREV FCST AND GUIDANCE. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED BLEND AND ECMWF FOR HIGHS TUE...LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FCST AND GUIDANCE GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND RAIN.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... DIMINISHING SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT PASSING TUESDAY EXITING TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGS DRIER AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LATEST ECMWF AND GFS MORE IN LINE TODAY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF COLD FRONT AND PCPN EXPECTED WITH IT. THE GFS SHOW SOME SFC CAPE UP TO 600 J/KG. NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT AT LEAST ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THUNDER FRIDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. INCREASE POPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 04/20/14 UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...RPY

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.