Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251753 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 145 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SINKS INTO SE OHIO AND NRN WEST VIRGINIA LATE SUNDAY. FRONT WASHES OUT IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. STRONGER FRONT ABOUT THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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WEAK CONFLUENT PATTERN POSSIBLE 925 TO 850 MB LAYER OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK W-NW FLOW WEST OF MOUNTAINS AND WEAK SE FLOW EAST OF MOUNTAINS. CELLS FIRING NEAR BLUE RIDGE AFTER 18Z IN SRN VA. WITH STEERING CURRENT TO THE SE...MOST IF NOT ALL...OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR EAST...SO ONLY LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER OUR FAR EASTERN MOUNTAINS FOR REST OF THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE DAYTIME CU SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET...BUT HAVE MORE STRATOCU CLOUDS POSSIBLE INTO SE OHIO AND NRN WV 06Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. SO CONTINUED THE THEME MENTIONED IN THE LATE MORNING UPDATE. WILL HAVE THE THICKER VALLEY FOG FROM EKN VCNTY ON SSW INTO THE SRN WV COAL FIELDS. WITH CLOUDS SLOW TO INCREASE AND LIGHT WINDS...IN INTERIOR WV AND SW VA...DID LOWER MIN TEMP ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO. BASING FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT REACHING INTO OUR SE OHIO BY 21Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS TRY TO TURN TO WEAK NW EVEN SE OF THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY. WILL BE A BIT SLOWER INCREASING POPS IN SRN COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND ONLY INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. STILL HAVING POPS AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT 18Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY ALONG THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR. 850 TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO WARMER SUNDAY...SO HAVE SOME 90S MENTIONED IN THE SRN WV COAL FIELD VALLEYS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THEIR QPF FIELDS WHILE THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE OVER THE AREA. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS TO BRING THE BULK OF SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHER THIRD OF THE AREA ACCORDING WITH NAM/GFS MODELS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF LOOKS VERY DISORGANIZED IN ITS QPF FIELD THAT IT IS DISCARDED. THE GFS TAKES THE FRONT ALL THE WAY SOUTH THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS...WHILE THE NAM HAS IT WEAKENING AND WASHING OUT ACROSS CWA. FOR TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AND COOLING SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...IT COULD BE WARMER THAN EXPECTED. WENT WITH A COMBINATION OF CONSENSUS MOS AND ALL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SURFACE HIGH APPEARS TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW SOME MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH MID WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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MOSTLY SCATTERED CU AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT AGL. SOME BUILD UPS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...SO ISOLATED CELL POSSIBLE IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY... BUT BETTER CHANCES FURTHER SE...TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE OF VIRGINIA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS MAY INCREASE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 06Z TO 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWER MOSTLY ROUTE 50 NORTH BEFORE 18Z SUNDAY. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...LIMITED THE THICKER FOG TO THE DEEPER INTERIOR WV RIVER VALLEYS FROM EKN VCNTY ON SSW INTO THE COAL FIELDS OF SOUTHERN WV. THIS LEAVES CRW ON THE GRADIENT. FIGURING PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES IN THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD PREVENT THICK FOG THERE. TRIED TO LIMIT ANY IFR AT CRW TO AN HOUR OR 2 JUST BEFORE DAWN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM BY 18Z SUNDAY IN SOUTHEAST NEAR THE COLD FRONT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...FOG MAY BE BRIEFLY THICKER THAN FORECAST AT CRW AND HTS DURING THE PREDAWN AND DAWN TIME FRAME SUNDAY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... NO WIDEPSREAD IFR EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ/DTC NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...JW

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