Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 230619 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 219 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and seasonably cool airmass gives way to warming temperatures by mid-week. Next cold front approaches by the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 715 PM...Forecast appears to generally be on track. Latest guidance indicates overnight lows could be cooler than forecast. Dewpoint temperatures are currently lower than previous forecast. I know the dewpoint temperatures should recover some with the loss of daytime heating. However...will tweak overnight temperatures down a degree or so to reflect latest trends. Previous Discussion... As of 200 pm...No significant changes to forecast. Ridge continues to build in from the west. Afternoon cumulus on visible satellite will diminish with the loss of daytime heating. Clear skies across the region tonight allowing for classic radiational cooling and resultant river valley fog on Tuesday morning. A slight nudge upward by a degree or so on max temps as indicated by latest MOS guidance for Tuesday. Otherwise no significant changes. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Monday... Benign weather will continue through the short term as upper ridging transitions across the northeast. Temperatures will slowly climb through the period with dew points rising above 70 F again on Thursday bring a return of the muggies and maybe even a scattered tstorm Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday... A cold front approaches Friday increasing the chance for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Still quite a bit of uncertainty on when the front arrives, so not much confidence in pinpointing a time, but for now, early Friday looks like the best bet. GFS starts to bring another front through early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 2 AM Tuesday... 06Z Tuesday thru 06Z Wednesday... Calm winds and clear skies overnight will result in widespread river and valley LIFR fog by 08Z...affecting all major TAF sites except BKW. Conditions will rapidly improve by 14z to VFR mostly clear with light southerly winds. Some scattered cumulus mostly in the mountains during the afternoon. After 00Z VFR mostly clear with near calm winds...except in higher elevations where winds may still be light southerly. Patchy MVFR/IFR fog by 06z...mainly in sheltered mountain valleys including EKN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of fog may vary early this morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 08/23/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M L M M M M M M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M L M M M L M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L L M H H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... Dense morning valley fog possible through mid week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MAC NEAR TERM...JSH/MAC SHORT TERM...JW/99 LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...JMV

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