Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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458 FXUS61 KRLX 230600 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 200 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Dry weather is expected with temperatures running much above normal into the weekend. Dry cold front late Saturday. Another cold front possible late Monday or Monday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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As of 200 AM Friday... Forecast on track. As of 915 PM Thursday... Quiet weather with high pressure in place. No changes needed to previous forecast. As of 1250 PM Thursday... High pressure in control tonight and Friday. Based on the performance of MOS guidance over the last couple of days...will go on the lower side of MOS guidance tonight...and on the warmer side during the daytime.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 1100 AM Thursday... The only feature to track in the short term will be a back door cold front as the upper ridge gets pinched over the region. This boundary will slip thru later on Saturday with an isolated shra threat over the northern mountains...otherwise this should be a dry fropa. Temperatures on Saturday may still flirt with 90 along and S of the I64 corridor. The greatest push of cooler air will stay NE of the area but a good temperature gradient may still exist from NE to SW on Sunday...along with some more clouds. As a result...temps on Sunday should be similar to Saturday with perhaps a tick or two lower on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1100 AM Thursday... It still appears that any true Autumn push of air will hold off until late week. However there is some disagreement on timing and evolution of the northern stream early next week. The 00Z Euro is more bullish and progressive with the northern stream compared to the GFS which is more blocky. Will hedge toward the GFS to maintain continuity...keeping things warm and only a small chance for a shra/tsra early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 200 AM Friday... High pressure remains in control of the weather with mostly clear sky and light wind. Dense river valley fog will form overnight but, unlike the past few nights, will be less persistent and may not effect some sites. Also, much like last night, visibilities may be highly variable, dipping in and out of IFR through the early morning hours. VFR resumes after fog dissipates on Friday, with some high-based cumulus and some higher cirrus passing. Friday night, the fog is likely not to form until after 06Z Saturday. Surface flow will be calm at night and light and variable to light northwest by day, beneath light northwest flow aloft. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High...except medium in fog overnight into Friday morning. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/location of fog forming overnight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 09/23/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M L L M M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H M M L L L L L H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M L L M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... Morning dense valley fog is possible through Monday, and then Monday night in showers and post-rain fog and stratus.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/TRM NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY/MZ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...TRM

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