Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 310854 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 445 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT STALLS IN OUR VICINITY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK FLOW TUESDAY...SOME DRIER AIR SEEPS INTO OHIO RIVER VALLEY...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERS FURTHER SOUTH/EAST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AT 08Z MID LEVEL ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500 MB VORT MAX SOUTH OF IND. IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS TODAY...WITH ITS AXIS PASSING PKB AROUND 14Z. WILL HAVE SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR COMES INTO SOUTHERN OHIO IN ITS WAKE. WILL BASE FORECAST ON SURFACE FRONT REACHING PKB TO GRAYSON NEAR 00Z MONDAY...THEN NEAR CKB TO CRW AROUND 06Z MONDAY. DIVERGING SOLUTIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. GLOBAL GFS AND ECMWF NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT CONVECTION REFORMING DURING THE MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. 00Z NAM AND NEAR TERM MODELS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE. WITH FRONT APPROACHING AND INSTABILITY INCREASING...WILL TRY TO INCREASE POPS DURING THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME MAINLY SE OF THE OHIO RIVER. EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL AROUND 35 THSD. WILL MENTION SOME DOWNPOURS IN THE LIKELY POP AREAS LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. MOST AREAS...EXCEPT THE POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...CAN HANDLE 1 TO 2 INCHES. INSTABILITY WANES AFTER 03Z...BUT WITH FRONT STALLING NEAR CKB TO CRW LINE...WILL KEEP POPS ONGOING THROUGH THE NIGHT SE OF THE OHIO RIVER. CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER NEAR AND WEST OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... CWA IN FAIRLY WEEK FLOW WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY STUCK JUST TO OUR SE. HAVE HIGHEST POPS TIED TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA...CLOSER TO THIS BOUNDARY. HAVE LIKELY POP ON MONDAY AND HIGH CHANCE ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV/VA. POPS TAPER OFF TO DRIER WEATHER ACROSS FAR NW AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO FILTER INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. 500MB TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND THE CLOSED LOW THEN DRIFTS AROUND TO OUR SW THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD KEEP PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE EAST OF THE OHIO THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST HANDLING CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER DEEP S. KEPT SOME MAINLY DIURNAL POPS IN THRU THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SOME MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG WHERE IT RAIN SATURDAY EVENING. THINKING ELKINS MAY IMPROVE BY DAWN. WEAKENING MID LEVEL VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE WAVE IN INDIANA AT 06Z COULD CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS REACHING OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES 08Z TO 10Z...THEN MOVE THROUGH WV 10 TO 15Z. HAVE CLOUDS AT 4 TO 5 THSD FT INCREASING WITH THAT FEATURE. HARD TO TIME ADDITIONAL ROUNDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE MAIN CHANCES AFTER 19Z EAST AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AND WV...RATHER THAN SE OHIO. CEILINGS 2 TO 3 THSD FT AND VSBY BRIEFLY AOB 3 MILES IN THE HEAVIER CONVECTION...BUT KEPT TAFS MOSTLY MVFR VSBY. INSTABILITY WANES SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THINKING SHOWERS WILL LINGER AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN WV AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. BASING FORECAST ON THE FRONT STALLING NEAR CKB-CRW BY END OF THIS TAF PERIOD...OR 06Z MONDAY. LOWER CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT AT 1 TO 2 THSD FT MAY FORM IN SE OHIO 03Z TO 06Z MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HAVE WIDESPREAD VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES IN SHOWERS AND CEILINGS 3 TO 4 THSD FT 00Z TO 06Z MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS INTO THIS EVENING COULD VARY. TIMING THE LOWERING CEILINGS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT COULD VARY AS THE FRONT SLOWS. .AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR IN CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...KTB

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