Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 191420 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1020 AM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front stalls and returns back north today. A much stronger front moves through Thursday night. Moisture starved cold front late in the weekend. High pressure builds in for early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1020 AM Wednesday... Front has sunk to near a UNI-PKB-CKB line. Do not expect much more southeasterly movement before the surface wave coming out of the lower Ohio River Valley starts pushing it back north. Updated hourly grids to better reflect current obs and trends but no significant changes made. As of 145 AM Wednesday... Cold front as of 02Z was draped across OH, roughly from ILN to CMH to YNG. A broken line of showers was noted just ahead of the baroclinic zone. This boundary will slowly move into the area thru morning before becoming quasi stationary along the OH/KY border, extending NE along the Route 33 corridor into WV. The areal coverage of showers should gradually wane toward morning so that only a few showers are foreseen by the time the front checks up. This front will return north as a warm front as the day progresses with perhaps an uptick in precip coverage with daytime heating into SE OH and N WV. There is just enough instability along the boundary for perhaps a few storms as well, especially late in the day. Temperatures today are entirely dependent on the location of the baroclinic zone with a good bit of low stratus along and north of the boundary to contend with. Models are consistent in showing a good temperature gradient from north to south today with areas along and south of I64 peaking out into the lower to mid 80s while SE OH and N WV stay in the 70s. Regardless, it should be another day of above normal temperatures areawide. Tonight the warm front will become stationary across S OH as a surface wave develops and rides along the boundary. This puts parts of SE OH under the cross hairs for rounds of showers and perhaps a few storms overnight. Areas to the SE which includes much of WV zones should stay precip free tonight in the warm sector. It will be yet another very mild night.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 AM Wednesday... Models showing a low pressure system moving across the area Thursday into Friday. With good dynamics, decent instability and plenty of moisture, expect some thunderstorms and decent rainfall amounts. With good cold air advection behind the system and some lingering low level moisture, expect some lingering precipitation. How long this precipitation lingers is up for debate among the models. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM Wednesday... Depending on the model, a disturbance may move through sometime in the Saturday night, Sunday, or Sunday night time frame. Due to the uncertainty, will keep low pops through this period. High pressure will then provide dry weather for the beginning of the next work week. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 640 AM Wednesday... Cold front as of 10Z located over SE OH. A broken line of showers was noted just ahead of the boundary. As the boundary enters the area of the next several hours, cigs will lower into MVFR with a narrow belt of cigs in the 1 to 2 thsd foot range. Timed the front for bringing in MVFR stratus across most terminals except KBKW/KEKN into the morning hours. This front will check up along the the OH River before returning north as a warm front as the day progresses. Any brief MVFR stratus across KHTS/KCRW will lift by mid morning while taking until midday for KPKB/KCKB to see improving cigs. The warm front will become nearly stationary NW of the OH River tonight as a wave of low pressure rides along the boundary. As a result of this and being entrenched in the warm sector, VFR conditions are expected tonight at all taf sites. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Uncertainty still how far south low stratus will make it. Also, near the vicinity of the front its possible there could be some IFR stratus this morning that may extend into KPKB for a time. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M L M H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... Typical early morning valley fog possible this week. IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...MZ/30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...30 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.