Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version |  Previous Version |  Graphics & Text |  Print | Product List |  Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
380 FXUS61 KRLX 251453 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1053 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... The heat wave continues through the end of the week for much of the area, but eases up slightly as the chance for mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms increases. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1050 AM Wednesday... Surface temperatures have warm up into the mid to upper 80s late this morning. Expect the heat to increase this afternoon with heat index values reaching the 103 mark across the lowlands. Extreme heat warning and heat advisories remains in effect for most part of the lowlands through 8 PM this evening. Rest of forecast remains on track. As of 640 AM Wednesday... Forecast on track this warm and muggy morning, with valley fog most evident in and near the mountains on GOES-R nighttime imagery. As of 200 AM Wednesday... Key Points: * Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories continue across the lowlands and southern and lower mountainous terrain for heat indices in the 100s this afternoon. * Today brings the first noteworthy chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms in several days, at least across the north, where marginally severe wet microbursts are possible. After the valley fog burns off and lifts this morning, today brings the first noteworthy chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms in several days, at least across the north, as a weak cold front approaches from that direction. This may crimp the heat slightly up there. With very high CAPE, little shear and PW values up around two inches, thunderstorms this afternoon can be very heavy, and DCAPE amid initially steep low level lapse rates can support marginally severe wet microbursts, especially north but also in the mountains. Convection should for the most part diminish after sunset, allowing valley fog to form, more so than recent nights anywhere it rains later this afternoon or this evening. The cold front will stall, even reverse and drift back north or wash out altogether tonight. High temperatures today will otherwise be similar as the past couple of days, with a slight downward adjustment to afternoon dew points on mixing. Heat indices will primarily range from 100 to around 105 degrees across the lowlands this afternoon. Areas within the warning may not quite hit the criteria of 105, but we are now in the fourth day of the heat wave, with impacts undoubtedly accumulating. Another warm and muggy night is on tap for tonight, providing little relief from the persistent heat.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 335 AM Wednesday... With the approaching cold front today having retreated tonight, high pressure surface and aloft attempts to rebuild and retake control over the area Thursday, albeit weaker and dirtier. Added moisture and lingering boundaries from the return of thunderstorms today could lead to afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. High CAPE, little shear and PW values up around two inches could lead to strong downbursts. By Friday, the mid/upper-level ridging may be a bit cleaner, but then a short wave trough approaching from the west may get close enough to increase shear a bit, and enhance late afternoon and evening convection. With the introduction of showers and thunderstorms, high temperatures on average will be slightly lower each day, but high enough on Thursday to warrant extension of the Extreme Heat Warnings for one more day, on persistence more than heat indices actually exceeding 105 F. The Heat Advisories to the west of the Warning, in southeast Ohio and northeast Kentucky, area also extended another day. Very warm and muggy nights will continue, with thunderstorms enhancing the chance for overnight fog formation wherever they occur. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 335 AM Wednesday... A weak mid/upper-level short wave trough will drive a weak surface cold front toward the area from the north Saturday, increasing the likelihood for mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms. While this front also retreats northward Saturday night and Sunday, the mid/upper level ridge does not build back in much, and weak ripples in the flow tap the very warm and humid air in place for mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day. A somewhat stronger mid/upper-level short wave trough and cold front may ramp up convection further late Monday or Tuesday, but may then be followed by somewhat drier air come the middle of next week. Central guidance keeps highs around 90 and lows around 70 across the lowlands into early next week, before both tail off toward normal heading into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 640 AM Wednesday... Valley fog went occasionally IFR along the Ohio River and Tygart Valley early this morning, and sites will improve from MVFR to VFR right around or just before the start of the forecast, 12Z. Today brings the first noteworthy chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms in several days, at least across the north, as a weak cold front approaches from that direction. Have Prob30 TSRA coded up for PKB and CKB 21-24Z. Valley fog may form again late tonight, especially at sites impacted by a thunderstorm later today or this evening. Surface flow will be calm to light and variable, beneath light, mainly northwest flow aloft. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and impacts from thunderstorms may vary later today or this evening. Timing and extent of valley fog late tonight may vary, including the possibility of earlier, denser fog where thunderstorms occur later today or this evening. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... IFR conditions possible in afternoon and evening thunderstorms, and early morning fog, through Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CLIMATE... As of 630 AM Wednesday... Forecast and Record High Temperatures: June 24: KCRW: 96 96/1929 KHTS: 97 105/1930 KCKB: 94 97/1923 KPKB: 94 96/1930 KBKW: 91 90/1949 KEKN: 92 90/1949 June 25: KCRW: 93 103/1930 KHTS: 95 101/1921 KCKB: 91 96/1930 KPKB: 92 100/1988 KBKW: 88 91/1914 KEKN: 90 92/1914 June 26: KCRW: 93 99/1934 KHTS: 93 99/1954 KCKB: 91 96/1930 KPKB: 91 97/1952 KBKW: 86 93/1934 KEKN: 88 90/2005 && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Thursday for WVZ005>011- 013>020-026>031. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ024-025- 032>034-039-040-515-517-519. OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for OHZ066-067-083-084. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Thursday for OHZ075-076- 085>087. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for KYZ101-102-105. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Thursday for KYZ103. VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM NEAR TERM...TRM/ARJ SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...TRM CLIMATE...TRM