-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 040658
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
158 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT AS OF 06Z HAS CROSSED CRW AND EKN AND SAGGING SE.
NARROW BAND OF HIGH REFLECTIVITIES AS WELL AS WSR-88D VELOCITY
IMAGE DEPICTS FRONT VERY NICELY ON ITS TREK. NOT LOOKING AT A
SIGNIFICANT DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT MORE OF A SLOW DECLINE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE 60S ARE GONE.

STILL LOOKING AT SE OH FOR FIRST CONCERN FOR WATER ISSUES IN
CREEKS AND STREAMS THRU MORNING. THIS CONCERN EXPANDS INTO
REMAINDER OF THE AREA TODAY AS STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACTING
ON A MOIST FETCH SLOPED BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT AMID A STOUT
UPPER LEVEL JET...WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO THE
AFTERNOON HRS. WORRIED ABOUT SNOWPACK RELEASE IN THE MOUNTAINS
INTO THE MORNING HOURS WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND A STIFF WIND THRU
MUCH OF TUESDAY.

TREND IN THE MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM IS FOR SLIGHTLY COLDER
AIR ALOFT TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THIS WOULD LIMIT THE
SIGNIFICANT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AND CONFINE THEM MORE ACROSS SE
WV AS THE NEXT WAVE THROWS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IN THE COLD
SECTOR. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE
LOWLANDS BUT STILL NOT TO THE EXTENT THAT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
GIVEN HEAVY RAIN PRECEDING IT. THERE IS ALSO A FZRA CONCERN IN THE
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT AND IN PARTICULAR OUR SW VA COUNTIES WHERE
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF ICE ACCRETION IS POSSIBLY BY 12Z THURSDAY.

AS FOR TIMING OF CHANGEOVER ACROSS THE AREA...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL LOOKING AT THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SE OH IN THE FORM OF A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SLEET TO
SNOW. THIS THINKING PROGRESSES SE INTO THE EVENING HRS WITH NE KY
AND WV LOWLANDS TRANSITIONING IN THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...THE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL TRY
TO HANG ON ACROSS SW VA AND SE WV...MEANING MORE IN THE WAY OF
SLEET AND FZRA.

CONCERNING RAIN TOTALS...LIQUID QPF LOOKS TO BE A BIT LESS THAN
HAS BEEN EXPECTED. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER WITH LOLLIPOPS OF 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. THAT
WILL STILL CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

AS FOR HEADLINES...WILL BE EXPANDING WINTER STORM WARNING TO COVER
REMAINDER OF THE N WV LOWLANDS AND N MOUNTAINS. STILL DEBATING ON
HOW TO HANDLE THE COAL FIELDS INTO SE WV AND SW VA GIVEN MORE IN
THE WAY OF SLEET AND ICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN EXTREMELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE RAIN WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO SLEET
AND EVENTUALLY TO SNOW. A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN
RECEIVING IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER. KEPT THE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER AND THE DURATION OF SLEET THAT SHOULD
OCCUR DURING THE TRANSITION PERIOD.

MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE INTENSITY AND DURATION WITH THE GFS
BEING THE ONE OUTLIER PUSHING THE COLD AIR THROUGH FASTER AND
SUBSEQUENTLY KEEPING THE AREA A BIT DRIER. OPTED TO STILL CONSIDER
THIS IN THE FORECAST...BUT BLENDED TOWARDS THE SLOWER WETTER
SOLUTIONS WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE WPC THINKING.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO SUBSIDE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD...GRADUALLY
BEING SQUASHED TO THE SOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. MODELS STRUGGLING SOME WITH
THIS FEATURE...BOTH IN SPEED AND JUST HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS WILL MAKE IT. HAVE ANOTHER 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FOLLOWING THE FIRST AROUND MONDAY. 00Z ECMWF TRIES TO KEEP THESE TO
FEATURES SEPARATE...WHILE GFS DOES NOT HAVE MUCH OF A BREAK BETWEEN
THEM. ENDED UP WITH A NEAR 50/50 BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF THROUGH THE LONG
TERM FOR POPS. GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPS/WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE WV BY 12Z. EXPECT A PROLONG PERIOD OF
IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THIS LINE AS MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY.

HEAVY RAIN COULD FALL ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALOFT BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT...SENDING AVIATION CONDITIONS INTO IFR OR WORSE INTO
LATE WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL TRANSITION INTO A MIX AND THEN SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS.

STRONG SW LLJ OF AROUND 50 KTS WILL WANE THRU MORNING AND FLOW
VEERING TO W DIRECTION WHILE SURFACE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF
THE NW AND LIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR WILL
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   WED 03/04/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UNDER RAIN/SLEET OR SNOW.
IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ005>008-013>020-026-029.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR WVZ024-025-027-028-030>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ009>011.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR OHZ085>087.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083-084.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR KYZ105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR KYZ101>103.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...30