-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 280248
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1048 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large upper level low brings unsettled weather to the area
Wednesday and remains in the area through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1045 PM Tuesday...

Cool and dry night tonight with dew points in the 30s. Such low
dew points will make it difficult to get fog outside of river
valleys. In fact, temperatures may sink into the upper 30s in our
higher mountain locations making frost a possibility. At this
time do not think it will be quite cold enough, but it will be
something to watch overnight.

A closed upper level low will move over the CWA Wednesday. This
low will bring unsettled weather to the area mainly in the form of
showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...

As has been advertised over the past few days...our weather will
be dictated by an anomalous deep upper low dropping south from
the Great Lakes. This upper low gradually becomes cutoff by Friday
over KY. Rounds of shra and even tsra can be expected thru the
period...enhanced by diurnally driven instability amid steep low
level lapse rates. Timing these spokes of energy is challenging
but enough model agreement for some detail in the POP grids
exists. It appears greatest chances for precip will be across the
northern half of the CWA and concentrated in the Thursday and
Friday time frame. All in all a much welcomed pattern that should
give many some beneficial rain.

Temps thru the period will run several degrees below average for
day time highs...which is quite the reversal over the last several
weeks. In fact...some areas in NE KY and W WV may struggle to
reach the 60 degree mark Thursday and Friday given the proximity
to the significant cold pool and expected shra.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...

The pesky upper low will gradually track north over the
weekend...with less of an influence on the sensible weather as the
days progress. This will result in a dry pattern taking hold again
with temperatures moderating to normal and eventually above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1045 PM Tuesday...

Widespread VFR conditions. IFR fog possible, but fog should be
constrained to river valleys tonight. Quite impressed with the
rapid cool down and subsequent dew point jump of 10 degrees over
the last few hours, so may need to watch for more widespread fog.
Wednesday should be VFR.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Development and extent of any fog overnight
may be more widespread if temps drop far enough and dew points
keep jumping.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             WED 09/28/16
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
Morning valley fog possible through Friday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/30
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...MPK/30
AVIATION...JW