Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 131923 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 320 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY AIR MOVING IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH PRESSURE.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT...ABOUT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AS OF 17Z...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A SHORT PERIOD OF SOME 10-20KT WINDS TO MARK ITS POSITION. DO HAVE DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING TO LIFT/SCATTER. INCLUDED SOME DRIZZLE ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS TO START...AND QUICKLY DIMINISHING BY THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE TONIGHT...BUT WITH COOL TEMPS AND WARM RIVERS THINK THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME RETURN MOISTURE MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN CWA. INCLUDED MORE CLOUDS THERE...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. WITH THE LAST COOL SPELL...THE MET WAS THE OVERALL WINNER...SO BLENDED TOWARD THE MET ON BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AMAZING HOW QUICKLY WE LOOSE THE W/NW FLOW...LEAVING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE UPPER NEW RIVER VALLEY. FIGURING MOSTLY CLOUDS FOR US...SO WILL LEAVE POPS AOB 14 PCT FOR OUR SE COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHIPS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WAS A BIT SLOWER INCREASING POPS MONDAY EVENING. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE SUPPORT AND MOISTURE...WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE...40 NORTH...30 SOUTH FOR NOW. THAT FEATURE SHOULD BE EXITING THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUR WAY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. NO BIG CHANGES ON TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.,
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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500 MB RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS THRU PERIOD WITH WEAK BOARD 500 MB TROF OVER THE MIDWEST AND OUR VICINITY. THIS LEAVES US IN A WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND KEEPING THE DOOR SHUT FOR DEEP MOISTURE. FIGURING THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DOES NOT COME DIRECTLY OVER US BUT REMAINS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS ALLOWS A PROLONG PERIOD OF E AND SE FLOW. SO WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN AND MORE CLOUDS ON OUR EASTERN SLOPES. WILL ACCEPT WPC GUIDANCE AND LEAVE DAY 7 DRY FOR NOW...BUT DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERLIES MAY SINK DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER...WITH A BRIEF NW GUST TO 10-20 KTS. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOW CIGS BEGINNING TO SCATTER/LIFT. INCLUDED SOME DRIZZLE IN THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES AS SHOWERS MOVE OUT. DESPITE DRIER AIR...THINK RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT...AND NAM SOUNDINGS EVEN TRYING TO SHOW SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING AROUND TONIGHT WHICH COULD BE IMPACT FOG FORECAST. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING TO IMPROVING CIGS MAY VARY. TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H M M M M M L M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M H M M H H M M M M H PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...MZ

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