-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 211036
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
636 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SLUGGISH FLOW INTO TUESDAY...WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. FLOW AND MOISTURE INCREASES WEDNESDAY.
COLD FRONT STILL TIMED TO PASS ON THURSDAY. DRIER ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
615 AM UPDATE...
ALL PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP AREA-WIDE THIS AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN...THE BETTER SHOT AT
PRECIP WILL COME ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ALSO DECREASED SKY COVERAGE
FOR MOST THIS MORNING EXCEPT POCAHONTAS/RANDOLPH COUNTIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
KRLX RADAR AT 07Z DEPICTING A SHOWER OR TWO STILL HANGING ON OVER
THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS THIS MORNING...WITH ALL SHOWERS HAVING
ENDED ELSEWHERE. FOG AND SOME LOW STRATUS HAS FORMED AS EXPECTED
MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
HANGING ON FURTHER EAST. STILL EXPECT THESE FEW SHOWERS TO FIZZLE
OUT OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS ROUGHLY OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO PREV FCST. PROGGED 925MB/850MB TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON SUPPORT GENERAL UPPER 80S FOR THE LOWLANDS...WITH PERHAPS
A LOCATION OR TWO REACHING THE 90F MARK. KEPT INHERITED LOW/MID
CHANCE POPS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHERE THE BEST COMBO OF LLVL MOISTURE AND SFC CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO
RESIDE ON SOUTHEAST BL FLOW. WITH 0-6K SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5KTS AND
UNDER...WILL BE HARD FOR ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO MAKE IT VERY FAR
NORTHWEST.  FOR THE LOWLANDS...TOUGH CALL ON WHETHER OR NOT TO
EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A STOUT SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND NO FRONT OR EVIDENT BL
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER. HOWEVER...PWATS ARE STILL RUNNING ABOUT
1.35IN-1.40IN AREA-WIDE. MODEL POINT SOUNDING OVER SE OHIO DO SHOW
AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR OVERCOMING AFOREMENTIONED CAP WITH
ENOUGH SFC HEATING. ELECTED TO GO AHEAD AND EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AREA-WIDE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY...EVEN THOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF LOWLAND AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

ANY PRECIP OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY THE
01Z-02Z TUE TIME FRAME WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. KEPT AT
LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING ON THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE
EARLY/MID OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CONTINUED SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW...WHICH
PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON. ELSEWHERE...FOG/LOW STRATUS ONCE
AGAIN WILL BE A DECENT POSSIBILITY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE
ABOUT 1-3 DEGREES WARMER VERSUS THIS MORNING/S READINGS...WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY MID/UPPER 60S FOR THE LOWLANDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW FROM TODAY...CONTINUES DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY BEFORE INCREASING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. 700 MB FLOW STILL 5 TO 10 KNOTS 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 21Z
TUESDAY.

THE WET GROUND MAY HINDER SOME 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.
YET...WHAT WIND THERE IS...MAY BE DOWNSLOPING INTO THE WESTERN
SLOPES.

BEFORE WE START LOOKING WEST WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WE
NEED TO LOOK SOUTH...WITH THE REMAINS OF THE WEAK 500 MB CUT OFF
OVER THE SOUTHEAST.  00Z GFS WAS MOST AGGRESSIVE BRINGING DEEPER
MOISTURE BACK N AND NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.  DID NOT
JUMP ON THAT SOLUTION YET.  YET...DID INCREASE POPS AND CLOUDS A BIT
OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND LINGER SOME 30
TO 20 POPS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
INCREASING IN THE OHIO VALLEY...TRIED TO HOLD THE WESTERN LOWLANDS
NEAR 70 DEGREES FOR A MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...00Z NAM WAS THE FASTEST WITH FIRST ROUNDS OF
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  AS A RESULT...ITS MOS
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A GOOD BIT LOWER.  DID NOT GO THAT FAST.  HAVE
SOME LIKELY POPS INTO OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO AROUND 20 TO 21Z
WEDNESDAY...SPREADING SE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

AGREE WITH SPC AT THIS POINT IN TIME...IN TERMS OF SEVERITY OF
STORMS AHEAD OF FRONT FOR DAY 3.  YET...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT
OUT. STEERING FLOW INCREASING TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS ON NAM...GFS WEAKER
IN MID LEVELS. WE STILL HAVE NO HAZARD IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.


STILL HAVE SURFACE FRONT PASSING DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. 00Z NAM
WAS AGAIN THE FASTEST CLEARING FROM NNW TO SSE.  DID NOT GO THAT
FAST. HELD ONTO POST FRONTAL CLOUDS THROUGH MOST THURSDAY NIGHT...
MAYBE EVEN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE IN SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
TIL NEAR DAWN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MORE ROBUST FRONT ARRIVES AS IT TRAILS OFF OF A RATHER DEEP
SYNOPTIC LOW THAT SWINGS OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS ROCKETS
THE SYSTEM THROUGH OUR AREA WHILE THE OTHER MODELS VARY ON THE
SPEED OF THE FRONT. EITHER WAY...IT SHOULD NOT POSE MUCH OF A
WATER CONCERN. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRONGER WINDS WITH IT...BUT
WE WILL WAIT UNTIL IT GETS A LITTLE CLOSER TO SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT.

THINGS DRY OUT A BIT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LARGE
OCCLUDING SYSTEM MEANDERS SOUTH FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
ALL PRECIP HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA. EARLY MORNING FOG
AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL LIFT/SCATTER BY THE 14Z-15Z TIME FRAME
WITH VFR CODITIONS PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY.

NEAR-CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL MEAN FOG/LOW
STRATUS ONCE AGAIN BY 03Z-06Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE VALID PERIOD...PARTICULARLY FOR THE LOWLANDS. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH MAY DELAY THE ONSET OF REDUCED
VIS IN THOSE AREAS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FLIGHT CAT IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNIGN MAY
VARY BY AN HOUR OR SO THIS MORNING. ONSET OF REDUCED
VIS...DENSITY...AND COVERAGE MAY VARY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE
MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...50