-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 272124
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
524 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PASSES EAST TONIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LINGERING CONVECTION. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
500 PM UPDATE...

EARLIER CLOUDS HAVE REALLY DENTED CONVECTIVE INITIALIZATION THIS
AFTN ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF CWA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THOUGH IN
THE LAST FEW HRS ACROSS WV HAS ALLOWED SOME SFC HEATING AND WITH
VERY FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND SHEAR...CANT RULE OUT SOME STORMS
FIRING ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND INTO THE MTNS NEXT FEW HRS.
NONETHELESS...A VERY STOUT DRY AIR PUNCH IN THE H7-H6 LYR IS
RAPIDLY ADVANCING E THRU S OH AND N KY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THIS
IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH LACK OF VERTICAL CU
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS N KY. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY CAP US OUT WITH
JUST A BKN LINE WITH COLD FRONT LATER. SO THE WINDOW FOR STRONG TO
SVR STORMS SEEMS TO BE CLOSING. HAVE DROPPED POPS CONSIDERABLY
ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS AFTN EXCEPT SW VA WHICH IS GETTING CLIPPED
BY E KY CONVECTION. DID ALLOW SOME RAMP UP IN THE MTNS THIS EVE
BUT OTHERWISE...CAPPING WITH CHANCE POPS AND SCT WORDING. NIXED
FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN LACK OF COVERAGE. WILL BE EVALUATING
TORNADO WATCH SHORTLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
OVERNIGHT...VIGOROUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG E/SE-WARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA BY
12Z MON...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR DESCENT OVERSPREADING THE
FORECAST AREA BY AND AFTER 06Z MON. ASSOC SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST ROUGHLY BTWN 02Z-06Z WITH ONLY A
SUBTLE WIND SHIFT. STILL EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD BY THE 00Z MON TIME FRAME...BUT WILL
LAG AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF. SOME STORMS IN
FACT GOING UP JUST EAST OF CHICAGO AT THIS TIME...WELL BEHIND THE
MAIN CLUSTER IN CENTRAL OH. GENERAL FORECAST IS ON TRACK
HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MINOR MAINLY COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS. STILL HAVE
MUCH OF THE PRECIP ENDING BTWN 06Z-12Z BUT ALLOW FOR INCREASED
POPS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER
AIR POST-TROUGH WITH A RIPPLE MOVING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE ON
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER STILL APPEAR ON TRACK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIDES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCING BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY
EVENING.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE OUR WAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE
FRESHER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO LOW 70S
LOWLANDS...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODELS SHOW
H850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS UNDER WEAK NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW.

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE...EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV...WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...H5 CHARTS
SUGGEST ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WAY NORTH OVER CANADA.

USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SUNDAY THRU 18Z MONDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL OHIO AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD. THESE
WILL TRANSVERSE THE AREA WEST TO EAST PRIMARILY BTWN 18Z-19Z
ACROSS SE OHIO...CENTRAL WV AROUND 20Z-21Z...AND PUSHING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND THE 23Z SUN TO 02Z MON TIME FRAME. AGAIN...SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...ARE
POSSIBLE...AND THE THREAT OF A TORNADO EXISTS. AVIATION INTERESTS
SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF RAPIDLY-CHANGING CONDITIONS.

AFTER 03Z...MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH COLD ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
MAY RESULT IN CONTINUED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...COVERAGE...AND SEVERITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY VARY...AS WELL AS ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS
TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY
PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE
TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF
STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE
SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50

HYDROLOGY...