Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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250 FXUS61 KRLX 280715 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 315 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Showers and thunderstorms today in warm sector. Cold front late tonight, with gradual drying. Additional cold fronts and showers cross through mid week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 315 AM Sunday... Another unsettled day is expected across the region. Frontal boundary, initially stalled out across CWA, is lifting back north this morning, as low pressure moves into the Great Lakes region. Expecting isold showers and thunderstorms this morning, particularly across the north as boundary lifts across the area. Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread during the afternoon and evening hours during peak heating, and once again, some storms could become severe with hail and damaging wind the primary concerns, but overall, not expecting quite the level of threat as occurred Saturday, as dynamics and instability not projected to be as strong. SPC has the northern 2/3 of the CWA in a slight risk, with southern counties in a marginal. There is also quite a bit of uncertainty as to whether or not flash flooding will be a major concern today, but for now, have opted to keep the watch in place, and will allow future shifts evaluate whether to drop the watch early. Cold front will move into the region late tonight through early Monday, with gradually drier trends towards morning behind the front.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 PM Saturday... During this period, models have the upper trough lifting out of the Ohio/Tennessee valleys and becoming a closed upper low over eastern Canada. This will finally push the frontal system out of our area during Monday and allow high pressure with drier air to move in later Monday and Monday night. Thus, look for decreasing rain chances from west to east on Monday, with temperatures returning to near normal with much lower humidities. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 345 PM Saturday... This period features a large upper level low over eastern Canada with a long wave trough over the eastern United States. This spells a cooler trend for the Ohio Valley, with reinforcing cold front dropping across the area through mid week. Some showers will accompany these fronts, but no heavy rains are expected. Upper ridging and high pressure will return for the later part of the work week with dry weather and near normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 145 AM Sunday... Bulk of convection has died off across the area. Areas of MVFR and IFR/LIFR conditions linger in post rain stratus and fog, with IFR/LIFR most prevalent across parts of southeast Ohio and northern WV. Expect general improvement to MVFR and VFR after 14Z. However, showers and thunderstorms will ramp back up again, particularly after 18Z, with brief MVFR/IFR conditions in storms. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of IFR/LIFR conditions tonight may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 05/28/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H M L H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H L L H H H H M H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H L H M M H H L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L M M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M L M H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H L L L L M M M M H M L AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR possible early Monday, and at times throughout the week in showers and storms. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for WVZ005>008- 013>016-024>027-033-034-515>520. OH...None. KY...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for KYZ102-103-105. VA...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...SL

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