-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 150715
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
315 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
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COLD AIR POURS IN TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER AND BRINGING WITH IT WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15-25KTS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING RAPIDLY
INTO THE 40S. ANAFRONTAL PRECIPITATION COMES THROUGH IN THE FORM OF
SHOWERS...MIXING IN WITH SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
INTO THE 30S BY MID MORNING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THINK SNOW COULD
MIX IN AS HIGH AS 36-37 DEGREES WITH ALL SNOW AT 34 DEGREES.

STILL KEEPING WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON A QUICK EXIT TO THE
PRECIPITATION. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS MAY GIVE
A COATING OF SNOW...WITH MAX OF ONE INCH POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHEST
RIDGES.

HOWEVER...CURRENTLY...SHOWERS ARE FALLING APART AS THEY ENTER
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. LOCAL MODELS SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY PULSING BACK UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO DAWN...AND
WILL RIDE THE HIGH POPS.

QUESTIONS THEN MOVE ON TO THE SPEED OF THE CLEARING OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS WE SET UP FOR A VERY COLD OVERNIGHT WITH HARD FREEZE
CONDITIONS OVER BOTH THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LOWLANDS. MODELS AND MOS
GUIDANCE ARE QUICK TO CLEAR THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR
THE STRATOCU LAYER...BUT TRY TO HOLD ONTO IT AS LONG AS POSSIBLE IN
THE GRIDS. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED EVERYWHERE BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME WISPY CIRRUS MAY BE NOTICEABLE OVER THE
TRI STATE AREA.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND SUNSHINE. THIS WILL ALLOW A SLOW WARM UP WEDNESDAY
AND A GREATER WARM UP THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
VERY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE PROSPECT FOR A FREEZE
REMAINS.

NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR AREA WILL BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODELS HANDLE THIS FEATURE DIFFERENTLY...AS WE HAVE A SPLIT
FLOW ALOFT PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION IN A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
WHILE ALL THE MODELS AGREE THE STREAMS DO NOT PHASE...SOME MODELS
KEY ON THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT AS THE DOMINANT
ONE FOR US WHILE OTHERS KEY ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS DISTANT TIME
FRAME...SO WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...AND CERTAINLY NOT AS WARM AS THIS PAST WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SW FLOW DOMINATES THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE MULTIPLE S/W TROFS SWING
THROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MEAN UPPER TROF
TRIES TO BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE E CONUS. NO DAY LOOKS LIKE
A TOTAL WASHOUT BUT DO BELIEVE A FEW SHRA WILL BE AROUND SATURDAY
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PREFERRED SOLUTION
WITH MAINLY LOW POPS FOR THOSE DAYS. IT WILL REMAIN SEASONAL AS FAR
AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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WIND SHIFT TO 290 JUST OCCURRED AT UNI...SO EXPECT THIS CHANGE AT
HTS AND PKB SHORTLY AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES TO THE EAST.
WINDS WILL GUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE 15-25KT RANGE WITH SHOWERS
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
CEILINGS TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE RAIN WITH LOW END MVFR TO
HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE KEPT FROM LIFR CONDITIONS BY
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. STRONG FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP THE
VISIBILITIES UP AS WELL...BUT NOT WITHOUT RESTRICTIONS.

CEILINGS GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH VFR RETURNING
GENERALLY AFTER 18Z WEST AND 00Z WEDNESDAY EAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NEED IFR TEMPOS IN HEAVIER RAIN. TIMING
OF SHOWERS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    TUE 04/15/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN WV
MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26