Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 151946 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 346 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure builds for the weekend, and even into next week, with warm and slightly more humid air. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 PM Friday... A high pressure system is providing dry air aloft while abundant low level moisture has produced low level stratus. With a relaxed pressure gradient, flow is near calm allowing clouds to remain in place for longer periods of time. Tonight, the fog formation will depend on clearing the skies. Guidance suggest skies clearing after sunset. Otherwise, low stratus will try to develop once again through Saturday morning. On Saturday, plenty of sun will allow for afternoon temperatures to reach the lower 80s, 2 to 3 degrees above normal. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 330 PM Friday... High pressure provides for foggy mornings and warm afternoons, with a threat of an afternoon shower or thundershower each day across the mountains.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 330 PM Friday... No significant systems envisioned with just subtle ripples in the flow to provide low mainly diurnal chances of precip. Warmth will continue.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 PM Friday... LIFR/IFR conditions in fog and low stratus lifted to MVFR/VFR by 18Z. Satellite images show abundant cloudiness over the area. With weak to calm flow, these clouds will remain in place until they dissipate. Sites will experience LIFR/IFR fog formation along the river valleys during the predawn hours. Any fog or low stratus should dissipate by 14Z Saturday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of fog formation could vary overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H M M L BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H M L L M PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H M M H L AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR possible in morning river valley fog through the weekend. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...ARJ

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