Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 141405 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 900 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak disturbance today. Low pressure to the south tonight. Cold front with light rain and snow showers late tonight into Wednesday. Cool under northwesterly flow aloft Wednesday night through Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 900 AM Tuesday... Looking at various MOS guidance products and with only cirrus expected this afternoon in the north, will raise afternoon high temperatures today across southeast OH and northern WV. As of 615 AM Tuesday... Mid-level moisture from a disturbance across TX/NM continues streaming in this morning, yielding increasing cloud cover. A weak embedded H500 wave will cross late morning into the early afternoon and should help generate isolated snow showers during the morning. Any lingering precipitation past late morning will likely be liquid in nature. Otherwise, a quiet day is expected with temperatures climbing into the 40s mountains and 50s lowlands by this afternoon. Clouds will begin to erode from the northeast as the aforementioned wave departs; however, clouds will hang around the southern mountains and VA counties where better moisture will remain throughout the day and overnight into Wednesday. Towards the end of the period, a large upper low across the Great Lakes will begin pivoting off to the northeast with the brunt of the upper trof staying north of our area through tonight. The combination of confluent synoptic flow between the southern and northern upper lows will promote moisture influx and re-introduce more robust PoPs beginning late evening as better moisture arrives. The best chance of precipitation will reside across southern counties and northward along the mountains with lower precipitation chances farther west along the Ohio River. Relied heavily on HRRR and RAP guidance for temperature fields with a general model blend utilized for remaining weather elements.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 145 AM Tuesday... Still looking at light precipitation across the area on Wednesday, as moisture from a low pressure system across the southeast coast spreads north, and and upper trough/low deepens across the eastern U.S. Looking at mainly a rain snow mix across the south, with mainly light snow showers across the north. Additional light snow showers are expected Wednesday night and Thursday, as a shortwave rotates around the upper low through the area. Generally figuring 1 to 3 inches across the higher terrain, with less than an inch across the central mountains and parts of north Central WV. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 145 AM Tuesday... Cooler northwesterly flow through Saturday with upper trough across east coast, and ridge across central U.S. Could see a few sprinkles or flurries at times Friday and Saturday as weak disturbances move south through the region, but overall main effect will be just an increase in clouds. Gradually becoming warmer as we enter the weekend, as upper heights build across the area in response to approaching upper shortwave trough, which will spread precipitation back into the region by late in the week/early next week. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 615 AM Tuesday... BKN to occasionally OVC cloudiness with cigs aoa 8kft continues overspreading the area this morning. Still, predominant VFR flight category is expected area wide through the day today. There is a chance for -SHSN or -SHRA at KEKN, mainly between 12-18Z before a quick break and better precipitation chances later. Clouds will decrease for most terminals starting around 18Z, though KBKW may retain a more persistent cloud deck with better moisture across the southern counties. As an upper low to our north pivots across the Great Lakes, winds will respond by increasing to ~10 kts and shifting to between 240-270 deg. Some gusts of up to 15-20 kts are possible at northern terminals. As additional moisture streams in after 00Z, precipitation chances will once again increase across the eastern half of the area. Higher elevations like KEKN will likely see -SHSN with other terminals transitioning from -SHRA to -SHSN before dawn. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High for VFR today, Medium confidence in precipitation after 15/00Z. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Cigs and wind direction may fluctuate. Timing of precipitation transition may vary overnight into Wednesday. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EST 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H M L L M M H H H H H M AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... No widespread IFR expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SL/DTC NEAR TERM...RPY/DTC SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...DTC

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