Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 300848 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 348 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front lifts north of the area this morning. A strong cold front pushes east this afternoon. Cooler high pressure to end the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1245 AM Wednesday... Previous forecast on track. No changes necessary. As of 925 PM Tuesday...updated grids to slow down progression of pops into the CWA by a few hours, as precipitation associated with wave still well to our south in central KY and TN. As of 705 pm Tuesday...only real change was to increase wind gusts overnight and on Wednesday with development of tight pressure gradient, stronger winds aloft, and caa behind the front on Wednesday. As of 140 PM Tuesday... Models have shifted further west with the main rain band overnight. Therefore have lowered pops in some areas, especially the southeastern counties. A cold front comes through on Wednesday with a fairly good line and some instability. Could see some thunder with this system. Some differences still exist in model timing of the cold front, so although there is a high confidence in showers on Wednesday, confidence is lower in the timing. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 320 AM Wednesday... Much cooler weather is expected for the end of the work week with slightly below normal temperatures. Most of the area will remain dry, but in the NW flow and with upper trough swinging through, it`s possible that the mountains see some light snow showers. Other than that, it will be a quiet end to the week after the stormy weather we saw the first half.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 325 AM Wednesday... After Saturday, forecast confidence drops off considerable with several inconsistencies noted in the operational and ensemble model guidance. The end of the weekend and into Monday have a fairly high probability for rainfall, but the guidance is having trouble resolving how amplified and far south PFJ digs across the Western U.S. This will greatly affect how much rainfall we could receive from a system Sunday into Monday. If flow stays more zonal then we will have little in the way of moisture make it into our region. However, a more amplified pattern will have deep return SW flow and an abundant amount of moisture will be pulled northeast into the region. Hopefully guidance will resolve this better by Thursday after we can actually sample the associated short wave when it enters the Pacific Northwest.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 1245 AM Wednesday... Clear skies will gradually deteriorate from mostly clear skies to mostly cloudy with predominant heights dropping from 12000 to 4500 feet today. A warm front lifts north this afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west. This cold front could produce localized IFR visibilities under areas of rain. Thunder can not be ruled out with this front. The heavier PCPN will affect central and eastern sites through this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions can be expected. The actual front will cross the OH river by 18-21Z. VFR conditions expected behind the front. The front will bring gusty southerly winds today, particularly after 14Z, with gusts in the teen to 20 kt range across the lowlands, and in the upper 20 to near 40 kt range in the higher terrain. In addition, there is the possibility of llws to develop particularly after 09Z as a strong low level jet develops across the region. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and development of rain and associated restrictions this morning and again tonight may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 11/30/16 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M H M M M M M L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H L M H H H H L M L L L BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M L M L L L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M L M M L M L L L PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H M H H L L M L CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H M L L L M L L L AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR possible with a cold front Wednesday evening and night. IFR possible in the mountains in upslope clouds through Friday, mainly in the higher elevations.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...ARJ/RPY/SL SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...ARJ

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