Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 291844 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 244 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HEAT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STRONG A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT. A DRY STRETCH WILL FOLLOW STARTING FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. BACKING UP TO THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...SOME DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CURTAIL CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WHILE MAINLY SCATTERED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IN THE MORE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. BETWEEN THESE TWO FACTORS...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT APPROACHING 100 DEGREES TO CONTINUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR CAUTION. FOR THE FRONT...EXPECT IT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z...CKB-CRW LINE BY 14Z AND THE MOUNTAINS BY 17Z. DESPITE THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT...LOSS OF HEATING...AND WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS IN THE VERY JUICY AIRMASS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL GO WITH 30-40 POPS. MODELS INDICATE MOST OF ANY CONVECTION WILL BE WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. THUS...WILL TIME CONVECTION MORE WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH. MOST OF THE CONVECTION BY MORNING WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND EXITING EARLY AFTERNOON...AND DO NOT REALLY EXPECT A WIDESPREAD STRATUS SHIELD BEHIND THIS FRONT. NOTHING REALLY SHOWING UP AT THIS TIME BEHINDTHE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL KEEP MINDS TONIGHT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...QUITE MUGGY. FOR THURSDAY...TOOK A BLEND OF THE MODELS WHICH BRINGS MAX TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL...BUT ALSO DRIER AIR. $$ .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. THEN A TRANSITION BACK INTO A STRONG SURFACE RIDGING PATTERN WITH THE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SLOWLY CREEPING UPWARDS AGAIN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EXTENDED REMAINS DRY UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN LOW CHANCES FOR POPS COME BACK INTO PLAY. LOWLAND FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO 90 DEGREES...WITH THE MOUNTAINS THEIR USUAL 5-15 DEGREES OFF THE PACE. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL RESULT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH HUMIDITY AND DIURNAL HEATING. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY BKW. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHOWERS. EXPECT COLD FRONT AT 10Z ALONG OHIO RIVER...ON A CKB-CRW LINE BY 14Z...AND EXITING THE MOUNTAINS BY 18Z. GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING WITH THE NIGHT TIME AND THURSDAY MORNING FRONT...AND WEAK DYNAMICS AT BEST...WILL GO WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION AND VCTS IN TAFS. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR FOG FROM THE SHOWERS 08Z TO 13Z. DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHIELD OUTSIDE OF SOME MOUNTAINS LOCATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT SUCH AS EKN AND BKW THURSDAY MORNING. FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE SFC AND LIGHT NW THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAY VARY. FOG OCCURRENCE DEPENDS ON EXTENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AND IF THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...26/DTC AVIATION...JMV

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