Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 080308 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1008 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure overnight and Friday. Low pressure and cold front likely to bring snow showers Saturday afternoon and night, and again early next weak, after a brief, modest warm up on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 1005 PM Thursday... Lowered overnight temperatures over the middle Ohio Valley per current trends. Cold front east of area, with stratocu lingering in the mountains overnight, otherwise scattered stratocu at most into Friday morning. As of 630 PM Thursday... Forecast on track as a cold front crosses the WV mountains, taking the snow showers with it. As of 150 PM Thursday... 700hPa vort max has pushed off the the northeastern zones at this hour, and the weak cold front is now moving into the Ohio Valley. Both are providing the trigger for light isolated to scattered snow showers across the area, non accumulating for the most part, which will continue into the evening hours. Despite the temperatures pushing 40F in places, dryness of the air has warranted snow in the forecast today, and have seen snow with temperatures in the upper 30s. This will turn into brief and weak upsloping conditions tonight, where less than an inch is expected across the mountains, favoring the westward facing slopes. The passage of the front is also responsible for the reinforcement of colder air aloft, keeping temperatures well below normal heading into Friday. Snow showers end tonight in the mountains with high pressure building and peaking towards 12Z Friday ahead of the next system, leading to a dry and cold Friday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 PM Thursday... Models continue to agree that a surface low will pass over the Great Lakes, bringing with it a cold front late Saturday into Sunday. With very dry air near the surface it may keep the snow showers from initially reaching the ground. With WPC QPF of around a quarter of an inch 1 to 3 inches is possible in the mountains and a dusting in the western lowlands. Post frontal passage temperatures are expected to be well below normal to end the weekend. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 240 PM Thursday... After a warm up on Monday another system will pass over the Great Lakes. This system is very similar to, yet stronger than, the previous cold front. Once again, in the post frontal northwest flow snow showers are expected with accumulations over the mountains and a dusting over the lowlands. Temperatures are expected to remain below normal. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 630 PM Thursday... A cold front crossing the WV mountains this evening will bring MVFR ceilings, along with light snow showers north, which may briefly produce MVFR visibility. The MVFR ceilings in the mountains are forecast to persist much of the night in upslope flow, before breaking up around 10-11Z Friday morning. High pressure will then bring VFR conditions for the balance of the period. West to northwest surface flow will diminish overnight, and then become light west to southwest on Friday. Moderate west flow aloft overnight will become light west on Friday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR ceilings in the mountains may break up sooner than forecast overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 12/08/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H M AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... IFR possible in snow showers Saturday afternoon and night, mainly in the mountains at night, and then again Monday night through Tuesday, again mainly in the mountains.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/30/26 NEAR TERM...TRM/26 SHORT TERM...AB LONG TERM...AB AVIATION...TRM

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