Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 200621 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 215 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure approaches today and moves through tonight...then shifts to our southeast on Saturday. Heavy rain possible in Ohio Valley.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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700 PM UPDATE... Forecast on track this evening. Any fog should be confined to the more protected river valleys since the low lvl flow will be on the increase overnight. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... Dry high pressure moves east resulting in clear skies and mild temperatures. There will be fog development during the predawn hours. Models suggest that a warm front, evident in theta-e patterns, lifts north Friday morning keeping a chance for showers or storms. Additional showers and storm activity will come with a cold front with limited moisture, precipitable water around 1 inch. The nature of the convection associated with upper lows usually move slow or have rain over and over the same area. Therefore, expect periods of heavy rain and minor water problems. Used the bias corrected SREF and the superblend numbers for temperatures through the period.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Surface low pressure moves into the Ohio Valley late Friday night. Previous forecast remains mostly on track...so did not make any significant changes as far as PoP timing. Still thinking that the highest QPF amounts will be along the Eastern Mountains in West Virginia. Southeasterly flow will make for increased accent in the favorable upslope areas enhancing precipitation along the Eastern Slopes. Downsloping will likely be the story across Central West Virginia and amounts will be lower there with another QPF max expected in the Ohio Valley with the track of the 700mb low. PWATs are forecast to be about one standard deviation above normal in the 1 - 1.5 inch range and areas of heavy rain will be possible. If we see any flash flooding it will likely be across the Eastern Mountains...but as of right now it looks like the flood risk is low with a more localized flooding possibility. Upper level troughing will remain overhead into Sunday and some showers will remain a possibility with wrap around moisture from the upper low. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SFC high pressure will push into the region for the start of the new work week. This will give us some dry and warm conditions through at least mid week. Guidance is indicating a stationary boundary drifting over the region by Wednesday or Wednesday night and this will not move much through the end of the week. Several transitioning shortwaves will bring the threat for showers and thunderstorms into Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Lowered confidence to medium. Coverage of the predawn fog at EKN...CKB...PKB...and CRW in question...as high clouds increase and the flow/wind at 925 mbs also increases. With the increasing flow...did not take lowlands down in any thick fog before dawn. Mountain valleys may be sheltered and cool enough for pockets of ifr. Moisture/clouds at 4 to 8 thsd ft should increase over southern WV 06z to 14z...and spread north today...lowering further over the eastern slopes. On the 00z nam...the strongest 850 mb moisture convergence lifts out of western Tennessee early today...through central Kentucky...and into southeast Ohio this evening. Will have ceilings and vsby lowering in the hts-uni-pkb corridor before 00z. with that support...also included embedded thunder in ne Ky...Hts vcnty and se ohio...but not in any specific taf forecast at this distance. Figuring the southeast flow will keep Crw to Ekn in better shape in the rain showers. In contrast...the same southeast flow should lower ceilings after 23z in the eastern slopes including the Bkw vcnty. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage and thickness of the predawn fog in question with increasing boundary layer winds. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 05/20/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... Ifr may linger 06z to 12z Saturday in southeast ohio and along the eastern slopes. Ifr ceilings may even linger Saturday over the mountains in the northwest low level flow.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...ARJ/30 SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...KTB

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