Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 040541 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1241 AM EST Sun Dec 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak upper trough Sunday into Sunday night. Low pressure Monday night Tuesday. Briefly milder in its wake mid week, then much colder late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 930 PM Saturday... No significant changes made. Stratus continues to erode on the southern edge as cirrus takes over. As of 145 PM Saturday... As expected the stratus has held firm today as cirrus overspreads the area ahead of the next system. Even though some of this stratus will lift as the low level flow turns more SE, this will keep temps from dropping much tonight so another day of going above guidance for lows. A southern stream system will approach Sunday in the form of a surface wave with induced isentropic lift overspread the TN Valley into SW VA. Given how dry the low levels are, this will fall as virga initially before reaching the ground around sunrise. Thermal profiles suggest some wet snow may fall on the highest ridges in SW VA early Sunday morning but with little if any accumulation. Most of the lift will slide into VA as the day progresses with a S/W trof tracking thru the OH Valley. This combined with some downsloping SE flow should leave much of the area dry as the shadow and dry air keep any precip as virga until late in the day. Across the mountains, in particular Pocahontas County, light precip will fall as a mixture with all snow on the ridges. Temps on Sunday should manage to warm well into the 40s across the Lowlands with 30s in the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM Saturday... Weak high pressure fills the void behind the Sunday/Sunday night system as the flow aloft turns southwesterly in advance of the next fast moving upper level low. In the cyclogenesis over the lower Mississippi Valley, a warm front/baroclinic zone sets up across the Tennessee Valley, bringing rain Monday night and Tuesday. The system strength will likely peak as it moves into the lower Ohio Valley, and then begin to fill as it continues northeastward. Overall, going to be about a one half to one inch type event, with the frontal boundary lingering from the mountains back into the lower Mississippi Valley. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 345 PM Saturday... Strong cold front arrives Thursday with an amplification to the synoptic scale pattern and a sharpening of the low level temperature gradient. Thunder potential is on the lower side right now, but will need to watch this as the event approaches. Likely to see some wind, and a cold airmass at -16C at 850mb will advect into the middle Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. Upslope snow likely to follow through the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 1240 AM Sunday.... Areas of MVFR across northern mountains of WV, including at site KEKN still expected to lift to VFR by 09Z. Clouds will gradually lower on Sunday, as a system approaches the region. Precipitation will develop after 12Z Sunday, in southwest VA first, with a brief wintry mix possible there, before changing to rain. Bulk of precipitation will arrive after 00Z, with areas of MVFR conditions forming, particularly in SE Ohio, northern WV, and across the higher terrain of WV, where isold IFR and a wintry mix will exist. Light surface winds. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of category changes in clouds may vary this evening. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 12/04/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR possible in rain and snow, particularly in the mountains Sunday night into Monday. Additional IFR possible in rain and snow towards mid week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30/26 NEAR TERM...MZ/30 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...SL

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