Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 022027 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 407 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT AND UPPER DISTURBANCE PASS THROUGH. SOME REMAINING SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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MODELS HAVE A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...HOLDING UP FOR AWHILE EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP ALONG THE FRONT. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER IN MOVING THE SYSTEM OUT TOO FAST. WILL GO WITH THE SLOWER MODELS AND USE NAM GUIDANCE FOR TIMING. THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT IS THE RESULT OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST...AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INFLOW WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THUS...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL ALSO BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH COVERS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS SOILS REMAIN SATURATED AND FFG IS LOW. RAINS WILL TAPER OFF BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT. BUT HAVE TO LINGER SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST...WITH THE FRONT REACHING THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT TONIGHT...BUT NOTHING REALLY COLD. FLASH FLOOD WATCH RUNS TIL 8AM TUESDAY. FOR TUESDAY...LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH LOTS OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DESPITE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN MUCH COOLER AIR ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE FRONT COMING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WILL INCREASE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN CREATE UNSTABLE AIR WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING...LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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USED AN ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR THE FORECAST DUE TO SPREAD IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND A PATTERN TRANSITION. THIS BRINGS IN SOME DRIER AIR FOR SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH MOISTURE REMAINING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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18Z MONDAY THRU 18Z TUESDAY... SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LIFTS UP ACROSS THE AREA. FRONT WILL REACH A PKB-LEX LINE AROUND 00Z...THEN ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE RIDES UP THE FRONT. BY 06Z FRONT WILL BE ON A CKB-HTS LINE...AND ON A EKN-BKW LINE BY 12Z TUESDAY. THRU 00Z...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...BUT IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMING IFR CEILINGS WITH LIGHTER SHOWERS....ESPECIALLY SE OHIO. AFTER 00Z...WITH MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS FROM THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS...IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE BEHIND THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN FROM THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. BY AROUND 03Z...EXPECT MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS TO SEE GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS. 06Z-12Z...SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM THE SOUTHWEST6...BUT EXPECT IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/FOG OVER THE AREA. AFTER 12Z...IMPROVING TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 16Z...WITH VFR CEILINGS WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY SW 6 TO 12 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY RIDGETOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND NORTH 5 TO 10 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY FOR THOSE AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT. ALSO...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND FORMATION OF IFR CEILINGS AND FOG TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>040-046-047. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OHZ075-076- 085>087. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...JMV

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