Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 232221 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 616 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER FRONT EARLY THURSDAY. DRIER AIR BEHIND FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REPRESENT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT TO PROVIDE WEAK NORTHERLY FRESH AIR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...KEPT DRY WEATHER FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF READINGS IN THE 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT JUST A TOUCH WARMER. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN. THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TOWARDS THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO APPROX 21Z-00Z THU...CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA 00Z- 03Z...AND ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS 06Z-09Z. CEILINGS WILL BE GENERALLY 3KFT AND ABOVE PREVALENT...WITH MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE IFR VIS UNDERNEATH ANY HEAVIER SHOWER/STORM. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LIKELY SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT. CIGS WILL ALSO LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT TO AT LEAST LOW/MID MVFR...WITH HIGH IFR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 79 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST...AND WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE BY END OF THE VALID PERIOD. MEANWHILE...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE ACROSS SE OHIO BY THE DAWN HOURS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE VARIOUS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M H H L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H M L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY M H M M M M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M H H M M H H H H M H H AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MID-AFTERNOON. IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. && .EQUIPMENT... PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS ARE WORKING ON THE PROBLEM. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...RPY EQUIPMENT...KTB

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