Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 190614 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 214 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Upper trough Saturday possibly brings a shower to northern areas. High pressure Sunday through Tuesday. Strong cold front possible mid week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 1015 PM Friday... Will update sky cover based on latest satellite trends. As of 645 PM Friday... Will update the forecast based on latest satellite and radar trends. As of 235 PM Friday... Showers are coming to end this afternoon with clearing from west to east as cold front pushes through the region. Showers will likely linger in the mountains through early this evening and can`t rule at an isolated thunderstorms in the mountains as well. Clearing skies tonight and this combined with the moist ground will produce dense fog across the river valleys after Midnight and into early Saturday morning. An upper level trough will graze the Northern Half of the forecast area tomorrow and have increased PoPs from late Saturday Morning through tomorrow evening when the trough lifts to the Northeast. Not expecting much in the way of precip with most of the abundant moisture exiting the area today with the cold front. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Friday... SFC High pressure takes control will tranquil weather Saturday night through Tuesday. Therefore, expected periods of dry weather with warm to hot afternoon temperatures Sunday and Monday. Used temperatures from the blend of models. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday... Models are in fairly agreement with a sfc low pressure system that will develops over the Canadian prairies and then drops into the Great Lakes for the middle of next week. This will bring better chances for showers and thunderstorms especially with an associated cold front. The cold front drops reaches the OH River by early mid week. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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06Z Saturday thru 06Z Sunday... As of 200 AM Saturday... High pressure remainder of tonight will shift east saturday. A moisture lacking cold front will weaken as it crosses the area during Saturday, but possibly generating a few showers or a storm in the north. Overnight, mainly SCT clouds 4000-5000 feet AGL over eastern WV, and an increase of mid-high clouds over southeast Ohio by dawn. Otherwise, IFR river valley fog expected at EKN, CRW, and PKB 07Z-11Z. Light and variable to calm winds in river valleys. For Saturday, VFR. BKN mid clouds across the north half of the area with a shower possible, elsewhere mainly thin cirrus. Winds light and variable. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, except medium with fog. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, density, and location of fog overnight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 08/19/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... Dense river valley fog possible each morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/MPK NEAR TERM...RPY/MPK SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...JMV

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