Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 031851 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 151 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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COLDER WEATHER MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND LASTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEND TEMPS FALLING TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST AIR LAGS A BIT BEHIND AND ARRIVES TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IN THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS...BUT LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS THE COLUMN IS VERY DRY ABOVE 850MB SO ANY UPSLOPE SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. STILL ENDED UP PUTTING IN A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BEFORE RIDGING BUILDS IN TOMORROW EVENING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION GETS THE LOW LEVELS COLD ENOUGH THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. PROBLEM IS...MOISTURE DEPTH BY THAT POINT IS ONLY AROUND 850 MB AND BELOW. THEREFORE WILL KEEP POPS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY FRIDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL REMOVE SMALL MOUNTAIN POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS CURRENT MODELS SHOW NO SUPPORT FOR THIS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. ZONAL FLOW REGIME STICKS AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE THE BULK OF MOISTURE RESIDES TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA...HENCE A DRY WEEKEND FCST. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE -SHSN IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS SAT AFTERNOON. GLOBAL MODEL RUNS HIGHLIGHT SRN STREAM SYSTEM EJECTING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY SUN EVE. THIS WILL REMAIN DISPLACED TOO FAR SOUTH TO AFFECT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER...APPROACHING NRN STREAM TROF IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR PRECIP BY LATE SUN EVENING. LOBES OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP US UNSETTLED AS THEY PIVOT THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TAKE A TUMBLE WITH COLDER AIR RETURNING. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THE AREA AND CLOUDS ARE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND WITH IT WILL COME SOME LOW STRATUS WITH LIKELY MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING. EKN AND BKW MAY EVEN SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WHICH COULD POSSIBLY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW MORNING...BUT FOR NOW DECIDED TO GO NOW LOWER THAN MVFR CONDITIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. TOMORROW MORNING WE COULD SEE CEILINGS AND VIS BELOW MVFR WITH THE SHOWERS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MPK/30 NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...MPK

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