Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 121933 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 333 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SUNDAY WITH WARM SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES. NEXT FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... WARM FRONT EVIDENT ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ON THE DEWPOINT AND DIURNAL CU FIELDS ON SATELLITE STRUGGLING TO LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE DIURNAL HEATING DECREASES...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AS WELL LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW AT H850 WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT PROVIDING SOME VENTILATION TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION. THERE HAS NOT BEEN PCPN THIS AFTERNOON SO FAR...SO POST RAIN FOG CAN BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SOUTH AND RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES COULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG OVER PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS LIKE TYGART VALLEY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING STRONG WAA SUNDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE MID 80S. CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH GOOD CONSENSUS. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO DEPEND ON RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS...MAINLY INTO THE LOW 50S. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. NAM APPEARS TO BE THE SLOWEST OF THE MODELS...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE THE FASTEST. HOURLY POPS WERE GENERALLY IN LINE WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF TIMING...SO ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY LATE TUESDAY... BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END. HOWEVER...THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY. OTHER THAN HIGHS ON MONDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE IS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS NUMBERS...AND WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED. NEW MET/MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS MONDAY WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NUMBERS. HAVE TWEAKED FORECAST NUMBERS UP TO REFLECT THIS TREND. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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GENERALLY QUIET REST OF THE WORK WEEK WX WISE. CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE QUITE A CHILLY NIGHT TUESDAY WITH MANY PLACES DIPPING WELL BELOW FREEZING. SOME MODERATION ON WEDNESDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE MORE ROBUST WARMUP OCCURS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD AND WAA COMMENCES ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW ALOFT. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS BECOME EVIDENT FOR SATURDAY REGARDING INBOUND TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WILL PLAY IT CLOSE TO WPC AND GO WITH SOME CHANCE POPS AT THIS DISTANCE.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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WARM FRONT...NOTICEABLE IN DEWPOINT FIELDS SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE WARM SECTOR..SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...A CU FIELD IS BUILDING AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH WEAK DIURNAL HEATING CONVECTION. CODED A BKN DECK AROUND 3500 FEET SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY MAINLY AFFECTING BKW. OVERALL...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY GUSTY WINDS DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN THE CU FIELD AND VERY FEW AND WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OUT OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS IF ANY. EXPECT LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE EARLY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS INCREASE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THESE WINDS WILL PROBABLY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE MID MORNING SUNDAY. CODED THIS FEATURE IN THE EXPECTED PART OF TAF. HIT AND MISS PCPN PRESENT LOW CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE SHOWERS IN TAF AT THIS POINT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WIND INCREASING ALOFT OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LESS FOG FORMATION EXCEPT OVER SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS IF THEY RECEIVE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW PER LAV AND OTHER GUIDANCE. THEREFORE...DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAF EITHER. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: OCCURRENCE OF RIVER AND VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT COULD MATERIALIZE OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVE PCPN THIS AFTERNOON. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT UNDER MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...ARJ

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