Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 180036 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 736 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure system exits tonight. High pressure Sunday. Warm front Monday, and then a cold front midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 735 PM Saturday... Flood watch cancelled as no new flood warnings are anticipated, and western portions of the lowland winter weather advisories for snow are cancelled with the exodus of the snow, and temperatures rising back above freezing for the time being. The PoPs have been adjusted to reflect the faster exodus of the precipitation, and temperatures again fine tuned as they recover slightly with the precipitation exodus. A much nicer day is on the way Sunday, as high pressure crosses. As of 355 PM Saturday... Adjusted surface temperatures per current trends via the Hires arw and nmm, and NAMnest. Now have snow totals of 2 to 4 inches in the middle Ohio Valley, northern WV and higher elevations of the central mountains, and 4 to 6 and locally higher in the northern mountains. Used 12:1 snow ratios from WPC given reports of large flakes suggestive of good dendritic growth. WSW for snow expanded eastward and southward. As of 320 PM Saturday... A developing sfc low pressure system will cross the area from southwest to northeast through this evening. This system will bring short periods of heavy snow across southeast OH, and northern WV through this evening. There is a Winter Weather advisory for these areas through 2 AM. South to southwest flow is causing a warm wedge west of the mountains where most pcpn is falling as liquid. Colder temperatures across southeast OH and the higher elevations of WV will see a mix bag of pcpn or all snow. A period of FZRA will be possible along the eastern slopes of WV due to cold air damming east of the mountains. Therefore, another Winter Weather advisory is in effect for FZRA and mix pcpn through 4 AM. A flood watch continues in effect for the southern coal fields, including Putnam and Kanawha counties of WV and extreme southwest VA through 4 AM Sunday. Used consensus of models with some weight of the HRRR model for temperatures through the period.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 250 PM Saturday... The warm front will push north across the area on Monday. Any precip amounts will be fairly light, so not expecting more issues with flooding from this wave. We will be well within the warm sector on Tuesday and temps will be climbing into the 80s...yes the 80s. Forecast temps are in the record high range for climate sites -- and could be flirting with record highs for the month of February as a whole. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 255 PM Saturday... By mid week we will have a cold front pushing into the Ohio Valley from the west. Timing differences continue between the model guidance, but starting to look more like a late Wednesday afternoon or night passage. Have introduced thunderstorm possibility as well for this period as forecast soundings are indicating marginal instability. The front gets hung up and stalls and this could make for the possibility for more heavy rainfall through the end of the week. Still too early to tell at this time, but based on current antecedent conditions, flooding is looking like it may be a problem again. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 735 PM Saturday... MVFR to even VFR conditions begin the period east of the Ohio River, until the wind shifts to the west tonight as low pressure exits. Mainly IFR conditions begin the period along the Ohio River. IFR conditions, mainly on ceilings, will spread east overnight with the wind shift to the west. Expect spotty light rain and drizzle in the lowlands, with snow and sleet also possible in the mountains. Not much fog is anticipated as the precipitation exits overnight, and ceilings will gradually come back up, with MVFR or better predominant ceilings toward dawn Monday, perhaps a bit beyond dawn in the northern mountains. MVFR morning cu ceilings will lift and break up by late morning, and high pressure will provide a VFR Sunday afternoon. Southerly surface flow east of the Ohio River will shift to west throughout the area by 0-3Z, and become a bit gusty in the mountains overnight. Surface flow will diminish to light west Sunday morning, and then back to light south Sunday afternoon. Moderate southwest flow aloft tonight will become moderate west overnight, moderate northwest by dawn Sunday, light north after daybreak Sunday morning, and then light south Sunday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improving conditions may vary overnight, though more confident in MVFR morning cu Sunday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY L M M L M M M M H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M H M H H H H M L H L L EKN CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M M L M H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M H L L L L M L L M H L AFTER 00Z MONDAY... IFR possible in showers late Wednesday or Wednesday night into Thursday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for WVZ516-518- 520-522>524-526. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for WVZ011-017-019-020-031-032. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM/MZ NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM SHORT TERM...MPK/AB LONG TERM...MPK/AB AVIATION...TRM

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