Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 020542 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 142 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... UNSTABLE WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED INTO TUESDAY AS A WAVE PASSES. LARGE UPPER TROUGH BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1130 PM UPDATE... HAVE LOWERED POP ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN INCREASED IT AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AS FRONT SAGS DOWN INTO THAT REGION. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. 1030 PM UPDATE... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WANED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING...AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING APPEAR TO BE OVER. BOTH THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAVE BEEN CANCELED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT...NEAREST THE FRONT AND WAVE MOVING ALONG IT...AN EVEN FARTHER NORTHWARD TREND NOTED WITH THIS LATE THIS EVENING. 730 PM UPDATE... THUNDERSTORMS STRONGEST...HEAVIEST AND MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF WARNING AREA...WHERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 134 REMAINS IN EFFECT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE A BIT WITH THE SUNSET AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. ANOTHER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SET UP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...ACROSS EASTERN OHIO INTO THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL CROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCN... BREAKS IN CLOUDS OFFER A CHANCE TO DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE FOR A ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. LIS < 4 AND CAPE > 1000 J/KG AND EVEN UP TO 2000 J/KG IN SOME LOCATIONS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A ROUND OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...POSING A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND AND/OR HAIL. THE MAIN CONCERN IS STORMS TRAIPSING ACROSS AREAS ALREADY HARD HIT BY LAST NIGHTS RAIN. SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR FLASH FLOODING. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS WE GET A LITTLE BREAK IN THE WEATHER BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES MONDAY. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... COLD FRONT...WITH A SURFACE WAVE ALONG IT...EXITS TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOBE OF VORTICITY CROSS. SHOULD GET A MAINLY DRY PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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BIG STORY TONIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS AT MANY LOCATIONS. SATURATED GROUND FROM RAINFALL TODAY AND LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE WIDESPREAD FOG LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING. A LINE OF SH0WERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH...CLOSER TO THE FRONT...WILL IMPACT PKB OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DIRECTLY IMPACT AN AIRPORT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL IN THE AREA TOMORROW EVENING. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO SW FLOW ALOFT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG. NOT SURE IF ALL SITES WILL BE AFFECTED...WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS BEING MOST LIKELY TO SEE A DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS STILL UNCERTAIN. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 05/02/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M M M M H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M M M H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L M M H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L H H M M H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M M M M M AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TOMORROW IN FOG ONCE AGAIN.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JW/MZ NEAR TERM...JW/MPK SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...MPK

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