Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 300204 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1004 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Moist southeast flow will raise shower chance today in the mountains. Upper level ridge rebuilds for mid week. cold front arrives thursday with showers and cooler air. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 1000 pm update...Showers and thunderstorms out ahead of a cold front are starting to push into the Ohio Valley. Expecting this line to follow instability axis and head southeastward through Jackson County Ohio and then into Gallia County over the next one to two hours. The cells will continue to weaken and latest meso guidance has the line fizzle out shortly after passing the Ohio Valley. I have updated PoP to reflect this trend over the next few hours. 730 pm update...Skies are clearing to the west so I went ahead and updated sky cover based on current satellite and trends. 545 pm update...Forecast remains mostly on track. Just made minor changes to temperatures based on current observations and trends. Also went ahead and updated PoP based on current precipitation coverage on RADAR. Previous Discussion... Unsettled weather across the CWA today...as moisture from tropical depression Bonnie overspreads the mountainous counties...and scattered thunderstorms have formed across parts of southeast Ohio...northeast Kentucky...and adjacent WV counties as a shortwave trough approaches from the west. Overall...much of the moisture associated with TD Bonnie is struggling to reach the ground on western side of the mountains...with thunderstorms across western zones slow moving and producing brief heavy downpours. Have continued the trend with thunder in the western zones today...and showers across the east associated with Bonnie. Showers...and perhaps an isold thunderstorm will continue tonight...mainly across southeast Ohio and adjacent KY and WV counties...as a surface cold front...entering Indiana at 18Z...moves east into the region. However...activity will be rather limited due to the late arrival of the front. Drier...and cooler weather across much of the area on Monday...although a slight chance for showers will still exist across the east depending on the timing/exit of the front. Next concern for tonight is whether or not fog will form. At this point...thinking best bet/location for fog development is across the north and west...where some partial clearing late tonight is possible. Still...patchy fog development cannot be totally ruled out in other locations...particularly where rain occurs. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Remnants of tropical storm Bonnie is expected to be over the Carolinas by Tuesday 12z. Meanwhile, a cool front with limited moisture approaches from the northwest. The area will be under the influence of a small high pressure maintaining dry weather until Tuesday night. Small chance for showers appears along the mountains as moisture from the tropical system gets squeeze across the mountains. the front crosses to the south by 12z Wednesday. The diurnal heating and near calm flow will keep low chance for showers or storms Wednesday and Wednesday night along the mountains. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Another cold front approaches from the west Friday morning. Kept high chance PoPs lowlands and likely PoPs over elevations of 3000 feet and higher. Current track of remnants of tropical storm Bonnie approach from the southeast Thursday through Friday. Attm, seems that the showers will stay over the eastern mountains Wednesday and Wednesday night. An upper trough moves east across the Great Lakes region on Sunday. This second system is strong enough to drive a weak front across the area Sunday night and Monday morning. Went with a combination of the super blend and the all blend guidance for temperatures through the period. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Tricky forecast overnight as showers and thunderstorms die off and clouds thin out. Very high dewpoints are still stretched across the area and now with earlier rainfall in places such as PKB...CKB...and EKN...the environment is prime for fog development. Current thinking is that PKB will be first to go down...however this will all depend on whether or not a line of showers and storms to the west in Ohio will fall apart before they reach PKB. Current thinking is that they will die out right before or near the Ohio Valley...so have kept SCT clouds at PKB for now and bring in MVFR conditions by 230Z with fog starting to develop. All other sites should see fog development hold off until the early morning hours...while BKW should escape any fog tonight and remain VFR. Definitely some uncertainty on how low visibility will drop off. Where there was rainfall earlier...I am much more confident that IFR conditions will occur...but not as confident at HTS or CRW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Where and when fog develops tonight is in question. Also...how dense the fog will become is also a low confidence forecast at this time. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 05/30/16 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M L L AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...MPK/SL SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...MPK

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