Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 301446 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1046 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1045 PM UPDATE... ADDED SOME TLC TO THE GRIDS TODAY. LOW STRATUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL MIX OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR OVERWHELMS THE REGION. IN FACT...MANY PLACES MAY SEE THEIR DEWPOINT DIP INTO THE 50S THIS AFTN. PERVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA ALONG THE OH RIVER THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF IT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO EXIT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS. DRIER AIR FILTERS IF BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEARING WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID DAY TROUGH THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE MID 60S TONIGHT. USED SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... REALLY NOTHING HAPPENING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...EXCEPT FOR A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING BACK TO THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE LOWLANDS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DESPITE THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE AREA...ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT SLATED FOR THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO SEE IF THIS CREEPS IN EARLIER IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL...WITH DRY CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY AT CRW...BKW...AND EKN. THE RAINFALL ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS REST OF SITES. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING CLEARING TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING MAY VARY. LOW STRATUS COULD LINGER LONGER THAN EXPECTED. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...ARJ/30 SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...26/DTC AVIATION...ARJ

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