Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 152347 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 647 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably mild, moist air in place, until a cold front crosses early Friday morning. High pressure Friday night. Low pressure late Saturday/Saturday night. High pressure Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM Thursday...Updated PoP through midnight with main swath of rain generally to the north through then. However, isolated to scattered showers will be possible across the south this evening, but much lower chances here. Thereafter, went with a HRRR Ensemble method for PoP through the overnight as the front progresses southward into Friday morning. As of 200 PM Thursday... The airmass at the low levels continues saturated causing low clouds and periods of rain showers. Radar images show the rainfall activity has moved north across PA and WV border. However, more scattered showers are evident on ILN radar, moving east toward our area. Expect these rain showers to affect southeast OH and portions of WV by 21Z. Models suggest plenty of QPF mainly across the northern third of the area. In fact, WPC has the same area under Slight risk for excessive rainfall Friday. A cold front will squeeze the available moisture into moderate to heavy rain showers. With the soils already saturated, and some rivers or streams have reacted from previous rain, the threat for river flooding continues. Therefore, the Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday evening. Low temperatures tonight will be warm, in the mid to upper 50s. The high temperatures forecast for Friday will occur during the early morning hours, with a non-diurnal trend under cold air advection through Friday afternoon and evening. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 PM Thursday... By Friday night, maybe just a few upslope snow showers across the mountains, but overall things will be fairly quiet. Rain will push back into the area on Saturday as another wave of low pressure moves east. Guidance is in fairly good agreement now with keeping the heaviest rain with this across SW Virginia and Eastern West Virginia. These areas were recently hit hard just last weekend with over 3 inches of rain, so although this system should only drop a half inch to an inch of rain, it could still cause some problems due to the wet antecedent conditions. Also, in the mix with this system will be the cold air hanging around in the Northern West Virginia Mountains for wintry precipitation to fall. Expecting to see a wintry mix with possibly just all snow in the higher elevations. 2 to 4 inches of snow is not out of the question for the highest terrain and some icing with a freezing rain/sleet mix will also be possible. High pressure builds back in over the area on Sunday and brings at least a brief period of dry conditions to end the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 245 PM Thursday... Forecast guidance really diverges after Sunday. Ensemble and operational guidance does keep on the periphery of a Bermuda High pressure, with very warm conditions expected with deep southwesterly return flow. This will also keep plenty of moisture readily available in the area, but timing and tracks of several waves next week will determine how wet the forecast is. GFS is currently much more active and wet than the Euro through the week, with several waves pushing through the area. With the uncertainty, have leaned heavily on a blend of ensemble and operational guidance for the long range forecast. Will have to continue to monitor as we head into next week, as the pattern does suggest that more heavy rain and flooding could be possible. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 640 PM Thursday... Cold front will be pushing through the region overnight and bring periods of heavy rainfall. Confidence on timing of heavy rain and impacts at specific TAF sites is still fairly low at this time. However, IFR conditions are expected as the heaviest swath of rain moves through early Friday morning. Conditions will eventually improve to MVFR in the lighter rainfall behind the front. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of category changes will likely vary and is dependent on heavy rainfall. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H M H H H M H H M L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H M M M H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L M M L H H H L AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... Periods of IFR possible in rain, fog and/or stratus early Saturday and Saturday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch through Friday evening for WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>034-039-040-515>526. OH...Flood Watch through Friday evening for OHZ066-067-075-076- 083>087. KY...Flood Watch through Friday evening for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Flood Watch through Friday evening for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...ARJ/MPK SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...ARJ

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