Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 240523 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 123 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure dominates through early next week with dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Cold front approaches middle to end of next week. Cooler airmass to follow. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1030 PM Saturday... Delayed onset of fog a few hours based on low level winds and dewpoint depression. As of 135 PM Saturday... No significant changes were necessary to the forecast in the near term period. High pressure surface and aloft remains in control, with above normal temperatures, and dry conditions. Expecting another cool, clear night on tap again, with areas of fog developing, burning off by mid morning Sunday, with another sunny and hot day on tap. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 PM Saturday... High pressure and ridging remains across the Ohio Valley for the period with well above average temperatures. Dry air aloft and lack of major forcing will keep the region dry and mostly sunny. Tuesday, the effects of Maria will start to be felt with a slight chance of terrain-driven showers during the afternoon though they will be primarily on the eastern ridgelines outside of this CWA. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 325 PM Saturday... Operational long range models remain consistent in a significant pattern change upcoming for the end of the week. The position and strength of Maria lingering off the Outer Banks of North Carolina will determine the strength and timing of surface boundaries dropping in from the northwest. At this time, an initial cold front will approach the region on Wednesday and struggle to pass through by Thursday morning, dropping Thursday temperatures to near-normal. Models are in better agreement for a more robust cold front associated with an amplified short-wave embedded within a mean long-wave trough to come through the area Friday night into Saturday with greater precipitation chances and an even greater airmass change behind it. Deep, due-northerly flow will settle into place for the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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06Z Sunday thru 06Z Monday... As of 120 AM Sunday... Mainly VFR conditions with light surface winds through 05Z. Persistence forecast once again with dense river valley fog overnight at most terminals except KBKW. Expect KEKN to drop first, generally in the 06-07Z time frame, with the remaining terminals holding off until closer to 09Z. Fog to dissipate in the 13 to 14Z timeframe for a return to VFR conditions amid just some passing cirrus clouds. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium on timing onset of dense fog. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 09/24/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H L L L L L L L M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H L L L L M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L L L L L M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L M AFTER 06Z MONDAY... VLIFR in valley fog each morning through Wednesday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/SL NEAR TERM...SL/30 SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...JMV

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