Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 030810 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 310 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WARM FRONT TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH PRECIP BREAKING OUT ALONG IT. THE HRRR AND RUC ARE MORE ROBUST WITH EXTENT OF PRECIP THIS MORNING VS OTHER MODELS. THIS PRESENTS A CONCERN FOR FZRA GIVEN EXPECTED SFC TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS. AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...ELECTED TO EXPAND THE FZRA ADV TO INCLUDE ALL OF SE OH AND PORTIONS OF W WV ALONG OH RIVER. LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. ADJUSTED END TIMES TO REFLECT EXPECTED WARMING OF TEMPS. LEFT NE KY OUT ATTM AS CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH THAT PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT OVER THAT AREA BEFORE TEMPS CAN RECOVER. WILL HANDLE WITH AN SPS FOR NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS. ACROSS THE N MOUNTAINS...THERE MAY MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET INITIALLY VS FZRA. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES N OUT OF THE AREA...MOST PLACES SHOULD BE LOOKING AT MORE IN THE WAY OF SCT SHRA VS STEADY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS SE OH. AS SUCH...HAVE TWEAKED POPS TO REFLECT LESS IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE ACROSS SW VA AND S HALF OF WV. THIS TREND CONTINUES THIS EVENING AS DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING INTO SE OH BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO SW AND INCREASING TO AROUND 60 KTS. THE COLD AIR ABOVE THE SFC WILL LAG WELL BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AS IT CROSSES SE OH...SO STILL HAVE LIQUID AS PRECIP TYPE THRU THE NIGHT. KEPT HEAVY RAIN WORDING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SE...INTO C WV BY 09Z AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z...THOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING BEHIND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS SUCH...THE HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT INTO AREAS ALONG OH RIVER AND THE WV LOWLANDS. THINK THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY HAVE LIGHT QPF THRU 12Z. STILL LOOKING AT POSSIBLE CREEK AND STREAM ISSUES DEVELOPING OVER SE OH TONIGHT AND PERHAPS NE KY AND W WV BY DAWN. ANY ISSUES ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL HOLD OFF BEYOND THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT A SURGE OF WARMTH BY THIS EVENING WITH HIGH TEMPS PROBABLY OCCURRING AT MIDNIGHT AS MANY AREAS GET INTO THE 50S. TEMPS WILL START TO FALL DURING THE PREDAWN FOLLOWING FROPA. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RESPOND...WITH A JUICY AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER RESIDUAL SNOWPACK...ADDING FURTHER CONCERN FOR FLOODING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN MOST PLACES. THIS FORECAST IS STILL LIKELY UNDERESTIMATING THE TOTAL ACCUMULATION SPIT OUT BY THE MODELS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES. THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN...WARM TEMPERATURES...HIGH DEW POINTS AND STRONG 850 MB WINDS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR MELTING THE CURRENT SNOWPACK ADDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR RUNOFF HENCE WE RAISED A FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. TO ADD FUEL TO THE FIRE...A SHARP COLD AIR MASS WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION ON THURSDAY TURNING THE RAIN TO SNOW. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THIS COLD AIR PROPAGATES TO THE SOUTH WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET. RIGHT NOW...THE FORECAST IS FOR ABOUT 5-7 INCHES OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA...AND THIS MAY BE A CONSERVATIVE AMOUNT AS WELL. WHEN THE PRECIPITATION FINALLY DOES SHUT OFF...SOME OF OUR MODELS ARE CALLING FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF -20 F YET AGAIN. WE ARE IN FOR A WILD RIDE OF WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A GENERAL WARM UP WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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06Z TUESDAY THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN RAIN AND FOG. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN...ESPECIALLY AT HTS/BKW/PKB...BUT DURATION OF THIS PCPN WILL BE SHORT. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON NIGHT...MAINLY SE PORTION...LOOK FOR GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS SE OH AND POSSIBLY JUST VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS CRW/EKN/CKB. THERE WILL BE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE FRONT SAGS SE TONIGHT...CLEARING SE OH BY 06Z...C WV BY 09Z...AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z. HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...SENDING AVIATION CONDITIONS INTO IFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN THE LOWLANDS...BUT GUSTS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ON MOUNTAIN RIDGE TOPS THIS MORNING...INCLUDING KBKW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR WILL VARY WITH ONSET OF THE RAIN TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 03/03/15 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN OR SNOW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ007>009-017. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-047. OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ083>087. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-075-076. KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...30

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