Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 281745 CCA AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Charleston WV 145 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A large upper level low brings unsettled weather into the area tonight. This system will affect the area through the work week, before pulling out over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 145 PM Wednesday... A broad and deep upper low over the Great Lakes region will move south over the OH Valley and WV tonight. H500 charts show a vorticity max producing a front for tonight into Thursday. Despite of good forcing, low level moisture is not enough to sustain organize convection. Expect periods of showers or storms which each h500 vorticity maximum through the period. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM Wednesday... Large, anomalously deep upper level low meanders in a rex block about central Kentucky Thursday through Friday, before slowly drifting northward into Michigan by Sunday morning, as the rex block breaks down. This positioning keeps the main Atlantic moisture feed from the southeast, northeast of the forecast area for the most part. However, The NAM12 suggests a second band of heavy rainfall farther west, right over the forecast area, Thursday afternoon and night, when the upper low is at its southwestern-most point, just east of Nashville. A good chance for showers continues on Friday, with the upper low close by to the west. The chance for showers should diminish from south to north Friday night, as the upper low drifts northward. Showers do remain possible west, over the middle Ohio Valley, on Saturday, closer to the northward tracking low. Saturday night should turn out mainly dry as the upper low moves up into Michigan, far enough to the north and west to allow the dry slot to envelop the entire forecast area. Instability due to diurnal heating below the low upper level heights and temperatures gives rise to the chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. These low values increase enough to leave the chance for late day thunder out on Saturday, with the upper low drifting away from the area. Not much change needed to temperatures in light of the latest guidance. Highs will be lowest west, closer to the upper level low. Thursday and Thursday night will also be coolest near the tug fork, when the upper low is farthest south. Overall, temperatures run near to a little below normal by day and near to a little above normal by night, for diurnal ranges a bit on the small side. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 PM Tuesday... The pesky upper low will gradually track north over the weekend...with less of an influence on the sensible weather as the days progress. This will result in a dry pattern taking hold again with temperatures moderating to normal and eventually above normal. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 145 PM Wednesday... Cloudiness will thicken from west to east as a short wave associated with a broad low pressure system over the Great Lakes. The low itself will move south with center overhead from Wednesday through Friday. VFR conditions will prevail outside scattered showers mainly west. Models spread the PCPN gradually east as the area remains unsettled through the period. Southeast flow should allow low status at BKN overnight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Development of mvfr cigs across eastern slopes and resulting impacts at KBKW may differ from forecast. Timing of showers this afternoon and evening and resulting restrictions may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... Areas of ifr possible in showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...MPK/30 AVIATION...ARJ

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