Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 211902 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 302 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Surface low pressure exits tonight. Upper level low drifts across on Sunday. High pressure over Ohio/Tennessee Valleys Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms have popped up this afternoon in response to an upper level short wave trough digging inn from the northwest, and low level cyclonic convergent flow with the remnants of a surface low pressure system over the area. Beneath the upper level trough, a surface front was pushing southward into the middle ohio valley, with gusty winds and a more solid stratus deck in its wake. The surface low and cold front will collapse southeastward through the area through this evening, as the upper level short wave trough continues slowly digging in. It will close off into an upper level low Sunday that will then drift southward through the central appalachians. The showers were producing heavy downpours but were also on the move, and will dissipate tonight with the loss of heating; they are most likely to persist in the mountains. Otherwise the stratus will fill back in, especially as the front passes. Sunday will bring mixing, which will break up much of the fog and stratus in the morning, but result in a repeat of pop up showers and thunderstorms, especially over the mountains under the upper level low. With lower freezing and -20c levels, instead small hail for Sunday afternoon thunderstorms, with gusty winds also possible. We should also be able to mix 20 kt gusts to the surface outside showers and storms. No major changes to temperatures in light of the latest guidance. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Influence of upper level low will continue through the first 24 to 36 hours of the short term period. Showers can be expected across the Eastern Mountains in West Virginia and with cold temps aloft and weak instability...an isolated thunderstorm or two will also be possible monday afternoon in the Northern Mountains. Upper level low finally drifts northeast on Tuesday and upper ridge moves overhead making for a great weather day.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The dry weather we get on Tuesday will be short-lived as upper ridge breaks down and is replaced with zonal flow aloft. This pattern is looking very summer-like as we end up on the edge of the Bermuda High. Southwesterly flow will push warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico into the region...and dew points may approach 70F by the end of the work week. There will be a threat for showers and thunderstorms each day from mid week to the weekend in the moist airmass as we maximize daytime heating in the afternoon hours.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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An upper level low slowly drifting into the area from the north this this period will make for changeable weather conditions and a low confidence forecast. In the lower levels, moist air wrapping around the surface low center already over the area has led to a lot of stratus, but this was breaking up this afternoon. Limited sunshine was providing just enough heating to get scattered showers and even isolated thunderstorms going. Any shower or thunderstorm can bring brief IFR vsby but may initially break up any status in place. The showers are likely to diminish in area coverage tonight once the sun goes down, but the stratus will become more widespread, with areas of fog forming especially on ridge and hilltops. Clearing may edge into the middle Ohio Valley by dawn Sunday. This would result in a more widespread fog. The stratus and any fog will mix out and burn off Sunday morning, but showers are likely to start popping up by afternoon, especially in and near the mountains, where a thunderstorm is also possible. Light west to southwest surface flow will become light northwest tonight, and then become a bit gusty toward Sunday afternoon. Light west to northwest flow aloft will become light to moderate north tonight and continue on Sunday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of highly changeable conditions will vary with numerous afternoon showers around. Trade off of fog versus stratus. Stratus may break up over the middle Ohio Valley toward dawn Sunday. This would allow a more widespread dense fog to form. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M H M M M M M M L L HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M L L L L L L L AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR in fog possible late Monday night into Tuesday morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/MPK NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...TRM

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