Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 232112 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 408 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO WEST...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... MILD AFTERNOON ON GOING...ALTHOUGH THICKER CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD START TO DAMPEN THE WARMING TREND. WINDS BEGINNING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND HAVE WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE. MAY BE TOUGH TO GET THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWN INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPGLIDE ONGOING SO NO NEED TO EXPAND ADVISORY FOR TODAY. WARM FRONT...WITH A SLUG OF MOISTURE CROSSES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT PASSES..AND HAVE VERY STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE... IE UP TO 60 KTS AT 850. WITH SINKING AIR IN THE CAA...ANTICIPATE SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN...AND HAVE GONE WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. LEFT THE MOUNTAINS OUT TO REDUCE CONFUSION OVER TWO SEPARATE ADVISORIES FOR SAME LOCATION BUT DIFFERENT TIMES. ALSO CAA REACHES MOUNTAINS LAST...AND BY THEN THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE MOVING OUT SO MAY NOT NEED AN ADVISORY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE END. SAME THINKING FOR THE COAL FIELDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN MEETING CRITERIA THERE...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW. WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPS OVERNIGHT A BIT...AND ALSO INCREASED SOME ACROSS EASTERN CWA MONDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE FARTHER WEST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PERIOD STARTS WITH LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NNEWD THROUGH ERN CANADA....LEAVING THE FCST AREA IN DIMINISHING W TO SW LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND GUSTS QUICKLY RETREAT TO THE NW MON EVENING AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT. WITH COLD ADVECTION GETTING THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER JUST INTO THE ICE CRYSTAL ZONE...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE W TO SW FLOW...ANY THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE GONE BY DAWN TUE. AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH SHEARS OUT AS IT PASSES TUE...EXPECT A DRY DAY AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE. DO EXPECT VARYING AMOUNTS OF STRATOCU NEAR THE INVERSION ATOP THE MIXING LAYER MON NT INTO TUE NT...WHEN THE HIGH CROSSES. MODELS ARE CLOSER BUT STILL NOT IN FULL AGREEMENT ON LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE E COAST ON WED. THERE IS ACTUALLY A BIGGER DIFFERENCE IN THE WWD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION THAN IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW ITSELF. WE HAVE A SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FOLLOWED BY A MID STREAM NEGATIVE TILT S/W TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WED. THE SYSTEMS NEVER PHASE...BUT THE ECMWF AND NOW THE GFS COME CLOSEST TO PHASING AND THEREFORE BRING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FARTHEST W. RAISED POPS TO CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES WITH A HIGH CHANCE IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS...CLOSE TO SREF VALUES. WITH A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE PRECIPITATION COMING DURING THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY...THIS WOULD BE AN ELEVATION SNOW SHOULD IT OCCUR...AND HAVE VERY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE VERY HIGHEST TERRAIN WED AFTERNOON. DO NOT THINK AN HWO MENTION IS IN ORDER AT THIS POINT GIVEN ONLY HIGH CHANCE POPS AND ACCUMULATIONS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. WITH AIR MASS OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN THIS WEEK...HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES VIA THE MAV...EXCEPT FOR WED...WHERE THE BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF WAS USED TO LOWER HIGHS A BIT GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE E COAST SYSTEM. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POST THANKSGIVING PERIOD...WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FEATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE FAST W OR WNW FLOW ALOFT...AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LIFTS THROUGH US AND EVENTUALLY TO OUR NORTH BY SUNDAY. THE PROBLEM IS TIMING...POPS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THIS STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. BACK AT THE START OF EXTENDED...HAVE ANY LEFTOVER POPS WITH COASTAL STORM LIFTING OUT OF OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE MIDWESTERN 500 MB TROF...HAVE POPS INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH HIGHER POPS THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPERATURES IS ACTUALLY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE DEEP IS THINNING THEN. WILL HOLD ONTO POPS LONGER THURSDAY NIGHT IN WEST VIRGINIA. A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS...BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL. AS MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE DROPS AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND...LEAVING US ON THE MILDER SIDE BY SUNDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY STREAK SE OVER THIS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND LIMITED MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...TO CAUSE US TO INSERT CHANCE POPS AT TIMES...TRENDING NORTH OVER THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO FIGURE. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO BKW AT SOME POINT. GUSTY SE FLOW TODAY. AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT...WILL HAVE MVFR IN SHOWERS CROSSING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. COULD HAVE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR WITH THIS...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO CARRY AT THIS POINT. IFR CIGS EXPECTED ON EASTERN SLOPES...OUTSIDE OF TAF SITES. REMAINING RATHER BREEZY OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW...WITH EVEN STRONGER WINDS...TURNING S TO SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VIS LATE SUNDAY COULD VARY. LOW CIGS AND STRONG WINDS AT BKW SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD VARY. COULD GET BRIEF IFR IN RAIN TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EST 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M L L M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H M H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M L M M H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H H AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ005>011- 013>020-027>032-039-040. WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ033>037. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ038-046-047. OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087. KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...MZ

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