Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 170703 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 303 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Dissipating front Monday. Hot and humid mid week, with increasing storm chances in northwest flow Friday into the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1045 PM Sunday... A quiet night in store with mostly clear skies and calm winds. Used a blend of guidance for temperatures, keeping values in line with MOS guidance. Expecting dense valley fog to develop during the early morning hours then dissipate shortly after sunrise. A weak frontal boundary will approach the northern tier of counties tomorrow, so included slight chance of thunder given decent instability, passing upper level energy, and weak forcing along the boundary. A surface trough to our east and elevated heating in the mountains will also provide a shot at a scattered storms for eastern mountain counties. Any showers or storms that develop will diminish after sundown as heating wanes. The remainder of the area in between should remain quiet and warm with dry air in place. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 255 AM Monday... The short term forecast is going to represent a transition in the upper level pattern from an upper trough lingering over the piedmont to an eastward migrating upper ridge from the high plains into the mid Mississippi valley. As this transition occurs, the POPs will move from lingering activity over the mountains early on in the short term to northwest flow aloft. The heat will begin to build into a sustained hot and humid period.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 255 AM Monday... Activity increases in the northwest flow as the upper ridge continues its migration eastward to the southern Appalachians and eventually off the southeast coast. Baroclinic zone that had been parked over the central plains states will eventually shift eastward as that ridge moves off the coast, with a frontal system approaching by the end of the extended. Heat persists through the long term.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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06Z Monday thru 06Z Tuesday... As of 130 AM Monday... Thru Monday afternoon... Dissipating weak front over southeast Ohio. Otherwise weak pressure gradient across the area. IFR/LIFR river valley fog 09Z-13Z affecting all major TAF sites except BKW. Thereafter, generally SCT 5000-6000 feet AGL. Mainly widely SCT afternoon TSRA southeast OH and over hier terrain of WV mountains, but not enough to include in any major TAF sites at time. So, expect VFR to prevail after early morning IFR river valley fog. Near calm winds becoming light westerly most areas by 17Z. For tonight, basically a repeat of last night with weak pressure gradient and near calm winds, leading to IFR river valley fog affecting all major TAF sites except BKW after 06Z Tuesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing and extent will likely vary an hour or so tonight. May need to add VCTS for EKN and BKW TAFS Monday afternoon. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 07/17/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M L L L H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M L L L H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L M H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L H H H H M AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... River valley IFR/LIFR fog expected again after 06Z Tuesday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ/DTC NEAR TERM...DTC SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JMV

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