Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 240631 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 231 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Increasingly warmer and more humid air as the week progresses...before the next cold front approaches later in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1000 PM Tuesday... While still very thin, leading cirrus arrived a bit faster than previous forecast, so bumped up sky cover just a touch overnight. As of 145 PM Tuesday... Flat cu field centered over the high terrain will dissipate this evening for a mostly clear sky areawide. Suspect some patchy dense river valley fog will form once again tonight...though the low level flow increases out of the SE near 20 kts late helping to keep it in check some. It will still be a comfy night with lows in the 50s to lower 60s. A warm frontal boundary will cross on Wednesday with an increase in cloud cover as well as humidity. Kept the idea of isolated shra mainly over SE OH/NE KY and the mountains. Instability appears to be lacking a bit but still cannot rule out an afternoon tsra. Highs tomorrow look to top out in the mid 80s with 70s in the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 335 PM Tuesday... High pressure firmly in place for the majority of the forecast period though with increasingly warm days, the chances for showers and thunderstorms increase especially in the afternoons. Upper level disturbances migrate through the region, but only act to increase the potential for showers mainly in the north. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 335 PM Tuesday... Stubborn high pressure continues through early next week though decaying fronts do erode in the regions general vcnty. One thing to keep an eye on is a developing tropical system that is currently progged to move through the Gulf of Mexico during the middle part of next week and may eventually provide a break to our dry pattern. For now, have only slightly bumped PoPs in the extended though with very little confidence. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 2 AM Wednesday... 06Z Wednesday through 06Z Thursday... Cirrus overnight...will thicken and lower Wednesday...as an upper disturbance with deeper moisture moves across the area. Cirrus will be thin for most of night and...combined with calm winds...allow for river valley fog to form. However...IFR fog will mostly be limited to the more protected river valley areas...at CRW and EKN...with MVFR fog elsewhere. After 13z...With any fog having dissipated...becoming ceilings 6000-8000 feet with the batch of deep moisture associated with the upper disturbance moving across the area from west to east. Not enough dynamics to put more than low chance of measurable precip...so will leave showers out of TAFS. Generally south winds 5 to 8 kts. After 00z...clouds decreasing and lifting across the south and central areas with departure of upper disturbance...but approach of front from the north will keep vfr ceilings 6000-10000 feet up north. Light to near calm winds tonight with even less fog. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of fog may vary overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 08/24/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M L L M M H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L L L M M H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M L L M H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H M AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR in morning river valley fog possible through the weekend...depending on cloud cover.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/30 NEAR TERM...MZ/30 SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...JMV

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