Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 171329 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 929 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT POSSIBLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY MID OR LATE MORNING. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL TO PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. NEAR CALM FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF DENSE FOG ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... QUIET AND DRY WEATHER...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FOR THE LOWLANDS. PERIOD CAN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A S/W RIPPLE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW EACH DAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE LOWLANDS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE AND THUS WILL ONLY RESULT IN SOME FLAT STRATO-CU BOTH DAYS...PERHAPS JUST A BIT MORE FRIDAY VERSUS THURSDAY. THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS HOWEVER WILL SEE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS EACH DAY...MORE ON THE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE TOWARDS THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGHEST PEAKS WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE THU AFTERNOON BUT HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE TO AROUND 3KFT AND HIGHER. A BETTER SHOT AT SPRINKLES ARRIVES FOR MORE OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN AREAS IN GENERAL ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS BL WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH ALSO CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. JUST A BIT MORE INSTABILITY PRESENT FRIDAY VERSUS THU AS WELL...HENCE THE SPRINKLES MENTION RATHER THAN DRIZZLE. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS PER LATEST GUIDANCE. DID WARM MAX TEMPS UPWARD BY 3-4 DEGREES PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE FOR FRIDAY...925MB/850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT 18C-20C WITH PLENTY OF SUN IN THE LOWLANDS SUPPORT SFC TEMPS SOLIDLY INTO THE UPPER 70S. COULD EVEN SEE AN 80F READING OR TWO...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST. WITH THE CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...HELD BACK TEMPS HERE CLOSER TO PREV FCST. MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE MID/UPPER 50S AT THE HIGHEST LOCATIONS LIKE SNOWSHOE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL BY MONDAY. THE HIGH SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. AREAS OF DENSE RADIATION FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AROUND 14Z ACROSS CENTRAL RIVER VALLEYS...WHILE IFR CEILINGS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL LIFT TO MVFR BY 13Z...DISSIPATING BY 15Z. THEREFORE...EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID TO LATE MORNING AREAS WIDE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY UNDER WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW. ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT ALONG RIVER VALLEYS WITH IFR RADIATION FOG CONDITIONS. AGAIN...MOST AREAS WILL CLEAR BY THURSDAY MORNING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DEPTH OF FOG OVERNIGHT COULD VARY FROM FORECAST. LOW CIGS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN MAY CLEAR INSTEAD OF LINGERING OVERNIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS THURSDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50 NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...ARJ

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